ERCOT notice 8/24/2023

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gonemaroon
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6:14a, 8/24/23
AG
https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/notices

"ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Thursday, August 24, 2023 HE 19:00 21:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event."

So here we go again, outages are rather low right now and demand is high and we lack the thermal generation to get us through a weather event. Over 2 years later from the winter storm and nothing is being done besides a lovefest of renewables and batteries.

Without a good amount of wind in the evening this grid is extremely tight. The biggest push at ERCOT right now is batteries that last 2 hours (ish). Would have been out of batteries during Uri before the event even occured.

I put this in another thread but PJM has built 10's of thousands of new combine cycles over the past 3-7 years - probably 30,000MW or more. I don't think anything has happened on this grid since Exelon built some that came online in 2017. I believe those or some of their fleet even went into bankruptcy during that time.

NRG is trying to sell some generation and Vistra is up against their 20% ruling so they can't built. You have the states two largest entities doing nothing one because they legally can't. Both are buying back stock.

Someone with some sense needs to fix this issue, demand is so large in Texas now that there's only one way really out of this and it's via new generation.
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Fins Up!
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6:16a, 8/24/23
AG
We are going to rue the day that the units 3 & 4 were not built at Bay City.
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Texasclipper
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In reply to Fins Up! • 6:29a, 8/24/23
AG
Agreed, but you can thank the tsunami/nuclear incident in Japan for that. Plus enviro fear mongers.
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Logos Stick
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6:33a, 8/24/23
Once we move from ICE to EVs, this will resolve itself.
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Houston Lee
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6:41a, 8/24/23
AG
This is why I have a whole home generator.
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CyclingAg82
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In reply to Logos Stick • 6:42a, 8/24/23
AG
Logos Stick said:
Once we move from ICE to EVs, this will resolve itself.
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LarryElder
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7:07a, 8/24/23
This is a nothing burger
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Coates
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7:08a, 8/24/23
Why is there a shortage? Looking at their forecast the supply tanks around 8, so solar drops why are other plants not available?
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Fightin_Aggie
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In reply to Coates • 7:10a, 8/24/23
AG
Coates said:
Why is there a shortage? Looking at their forecast the supply tanks around 8, so solar drops why are other plants not available?


Wind. No. Blowing.

Would be my guess
The world needs mean tweets

My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA

Trump 2024
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Aggie_2463
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In reply to gonemaroon • 7:12a, 8/24/23
AG
gonemaroon said:
https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/notices

"ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Thursday, August 24, 2023 HE 19:00 21:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event."

So here we go again, outages are rather low right now and demand is high and we lack the thermal generation to get us through a weather event. Over 2 years later from the winter storm and nothing is being done besides a lovefest of renewables and batteries.

Without a good amount of wind in the evening this grid is extremely tight. The biggest push at ERCOT right now is batteries that last 2 hours (ish). Would have been out of batteries during Uri before the event even occured.

I put this in another thread but PJM has built 10's of thousands of new combine cycles over the past 3-7 years - probably 30,000MW or more. I don't think anything has happened on this grid since Exelon built some that came online in 2017. I believe those or some of their fleet even went into bankruptcy during that time.

NRG is trying to sell some generation and Vistra is up against their 20% ruling so they can't built. You have the states two largest entities doing nothing one because they legally can't. Both are buying back stock.

Someone with some sense needs to fix this issue, demand is so large in Texas now that there's only one way really out of this and it's via new generation.


Gas plants are being looked at to be built, but the market needs to make it profitable for private companies if you want it to happen.
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itsyourboypookie
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In reply to Fightin_Aggie • 7:13a, 8/24/23
Fightin_Aggie said:
Coates said:
Why is there a shortage? Looking at their forecast the supply tanks around 8, so solar drops why are other plants not available?


Wind. No. Blowing.

Would be my guess


So no unicorn farts?
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aginlakeway
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7:14a, 8/24/23
AG
Maybe wind will help?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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TyHolden
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In reply to Houston Lee • 7:18a, 8/24/23
AG
Houston Lee said:
This is why I have a whole home generator.

Just one? Lolpoors…
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gonemaroon
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In reply to Aggie_2463 • 7:23a, 8/24/23
AG
Sure, there's always plants in the study - they rarely if ever get built. If you look at the term with all the renewables coming online why would any build a power plant in Texas?

You would if you were an integrated and could sell retail power at whatever rip off it is these days right? The grid was deregulated so compeition would come in and sell retail and build power plants. Neither of those last two are functioning properly at all.
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sclaff
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In reply to Fightin_Aggie • 7:25a, 8/24/23
AG
Fightin_Aggie said:
Coates said:
Why is there a shortage? Looking at their forecast the supply tanks around 8, so solar drops why are other plants not available?


Wind. No. Blowing.

Would be my guess
Time to prepare for the wind not blowing under the winter cold dome; sun not shining during the winter short days.
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gonemaroon
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In reply to Coates • 7:26a, 8/24/23
AG
Extreme temps - demand verses supply.

If you look at the demand, without renewables we cannot cover demand. It's that simple.

So the next time we get a Uri - a 4-5 day weather event with freezing rain and snow - we'll find out once again that the system doesn't function.

Demand is outpacing thermal generation - and the generation we are relying on is old *****

ERCOT and the PUCT keep coming up with all these silly ass adders and such to get revenue to generators and no one is building anything - it's a joke.

They need to re-regulate or go to a capacity market. This one isn't functioning and won't ever fucntion at this rate.
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Jbob04
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7:29a, 8/24/23
AG
Do we have to post these threads every time the grid gets tight?
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Coates
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In reply to gonemaroon • 7:29a, 8/24/23
Temps aren't highest at 8 pm, it's supply not demand. Thermal plants have to be down.

We are screwed this winter
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LarryElder
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In reply to gonemaroon • 7:31a, 8/24/23
gonemaroon said:
Extreme temps - demand verses supply.

If you look at the demand, without renewables we cannot cover demand. It's that simple.

So the next time we get a Uri - a 4-5 day weather event with freezing rain and snow - we'll find out once again that the system doesn't function.

Demand is outpacing thermal generation - and the generation we are relying on is old *****

ERCOT and the PUCT keep coming up with all these silly ass adders and such to get revenue to generators and no one is building anything - it's a joke.

They need to re-regulate or go to a capacity market. This one isn't functioning and won't ever fucntion at this rate.


Market will never re-regulate
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LarryElder
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In reply to Jbob04 • 7:32a, 8/24/23
Jbob04 said:
Do we have to post these threads every time the grid gets tight?


Yep and posters make comments on this subject where they have no clue
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hurricanejake02
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In reply to gonemaroon • 7:39a, 8/24/23
AG
gonemaroon said:
Sure, there's always plants in the study - they rarely if ever get built. If you look at the term with all the renewables coming online why would any build a power plant in Texas?

You would if you were an integrated and could sell retail power at whatever rip off it is these days right? The grid was deregulated so compeition would come in and sell retail and build power plants. Neither of those last two are functioning properly at all.
As I have said on the last couple of these threads... lots of peaker projects hanging in the balance of the November election this year. If you want more generation online, prepare to vote in favor of completion bonuses and low interest loans to IPPs.
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Logos Stick
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In reply to LarryElder • 7:43a, 8/24/23
LarryElder said:
Jbob04 said:
Do we have to post these threads every time the grid gets tight?


Yep and posters make comments on this subject where they have no clue



Lol, the OP does it for a living.

And you haven't added a damn thing of substance to this thread.
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Sgt. Schultz
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7:46a, 8/24/23
AG
Small nukes are the answer to the grid problems. No more wind farms, use small nukes and gas/coal plants and you never have a problem. Time to phase out the wind/solar experiment.

Oh, and ...............TEXIT can make this happen
I know NOTHING!!!!
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BigOil
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7:46a, 8/24/23
AG
OP - how much are you willing to pay to ensure excess capacity for these long tail events? If you want 99.999999% reliability, that comes at a cost.
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AggieMac06
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7:46a, 8/24/23
AG
We need molten salt reactors and thorium reactors yesterday.
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Showertime at the Bidens
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7:49a, 8/24/23
Nothing to see here

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Martin Q. Blank
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7:54a, 8/24/23
All local, state and federal building thermostats shall be set to 82 degrees during these events. The "servants" must suffer first. Why is this not a law?
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Bubblez
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7:56a, 8/24/23
Nice job conservatives
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TxTarpon
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In reply to Jbob04 • 7:58a, 8/24/23
Jbob04 said:
Do we have to post these threads every time the grid gets tight?
Yep
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gonemaroon
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In reply to Coates • 7:59a, 8/24/23
AG
No No, outages are very low.

I am saying we do not have enough thermal generation when renewables are low to power the grid when demand is high.
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TxTarpon
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In reply to BigOil • 7:59a, 8/24/23
BigOil said:
OP - how much are you willing to pay to ensure excess capacity for these long tail events? If you want 99.999999% reliability, that comes at a cost.
User name checks out.
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Charpie
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In reply to gonemaroon • 8:01a, 8/24/23
AG
gonemaroon said:
Extreme temps - demand verses supply.

If you look at the demand, without renewables we cannot cover demand. It's that simple.

So the next time we get a Uri - a 4-5 day weather event with freezing rain and snow - we'll find out once again that the system doesn't function.

Demand is outpacing thermal generation - and the generation we are relying on is old *****

ERCOT and the PUCT keep coming up with all these silly ass adders and such to get revenue to generators and no one is building anything - it's a joke.

They need to re-regulate or go to a capacity market. This one isn't functioning and won't ever fucntion at this rate.
Thanks for posting this. I remember when you started the thread the night when the grid collapsed during Snowmagedon. I hope we don't have rolling blackouts today. Your knowledge and expertise is appreciated.
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Martin Q. Blank
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In reply to BigOil • 8:02a, 8/24/23
BigOil said:
OP - how much are you willing to pay to ensure excess capacity for these long tail events? If you want 99.999999% reliability, that comes at a cost.
BESS is the solution and they're building a lot of them. Charge at night during low demand, discharge during the day when at peak demand.
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Big Bucks
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8:05a, 8/24/23
AG
I agree BESS is the solution…for summer peaks. Doesn't address winter though.
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Martin Q. Blank
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In reply to Big Bucks • 8:09a, 8/24/23
Big Bucks said:
I agree BESS is the solution…for summer peaks. Doesn't address winter though.
Why not? It flattens the cyclical natural of demand no matter what time of year.
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