Zobel said:

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I think you've got it backwards. Net load (total load minus renewables) is more volatile than ever and cuts into traditional base capacity. That can even drive prices negative at times. What we need is more flexible generation - ie combined cycle natural gas with high turndown and fast start capability, along with smaller engines like aeroderivatives that can rapid dispatch and load follow. Base isn't the issue - our swing from average to minimum to maximum load is too high to simply add more base in a cost effective way.

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You're tossing out the causal variable in your solutioning. Increased volatility is a function of adding the non-dispatchable sources. Those who CAN spin up are given an ever increasing challenge to meet BECAUSE of the greens. And their financial recovery window for that (now reserve) capacity becomes increasingly narrow as the greens expand.

txaggieacct85 said:

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I've owned my own homes in Texas since 1990.

During that time my power cumulatively has been out maybe three days and that includes many tropical storms and hurricanes including Harvey. Also including URI.

That's three days out of 12,045.

That's a really really good track record.

Give it a rest

And why on earth would I buy a generators with that history

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It really depends upon where you are. If you live along the coast, it is guaranteed you are going to have days without power. You don't need a $10,000 permanently installed Generac to power the whole house and keep it at 68 degrees, but a small generator for some lights and to keep your fridge running would be a wise investment.

Today's prediction is getting worse.

Looks like 2 hours with a noticeable shortfall in available power.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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Coates said:

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Why is there a shortage? Looking at their forecast the supply tanks around 8, so solar drops why are other plants not available?

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Wind. No. Blowing.

Would be my guess

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Looking at ercot.com the wind is projected to be producing only about 6,300 MW from 1700 to 2100. It was as low as 1,750 MW at 10:00 AM this morning. It produces like gangbusters on some days and then there are days like today when it disappears. That is the definition of intermittent. Therein lies the problem with wind.

Quote:

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Gas plants are being looked at to be built, but the market needs to make it profitable for private companies if you want it to happen.

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The government needs to quit interfering in the market.

samurai_science said:

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Sgt. Schultz said:

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Small nukes are the answer to the grid problems. No more wind farms, use small nukes and gas/coal plants and you never have a problem. Time to phase out the wind/solar experiment.

Oh, and ...............TEXIT can make this happen

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Fed Gov wont allow it

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Dow Chemical is putting in a small modular nuke at their Seadrift plant.

gonemaroon said:

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https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/notices

"ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Thursday, August 24, 2023 HE 19:00 21:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event."

So here we go again, outages are rather low right now and demand is high and we lack the thermal generation to get us through a weather event. Over 2 years later from the winter storm and nothing is being done besides a lovefest of renewables and batteries.

Without a good amount of wind in the evening this grid is extremely tight. The biggest push at ERCOT right now is batteries that last 2 hours (ish). Would have been out of batteries during Uri before the event even occured.

I put this in another thread but PJM has built 10's of thousands of new combine cycles over the past 3-7 years - probably 30,000MW or more. I don't think anything has happened on this grid since Exelon built some that came online in 2017. I believe those or some of their fleet even went into bankruptcy during that time.

NRG is trying to sell some generation and Vistra is up against their 20% ruling so they can't built. You have the states two largest entities doing nothing one because they legally can't. Both are buying back stock.

Someone with some sense needs to fix this issue, demand is so large in Texas now that there's only one way really out of this and it's via new generation.

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You are wrong in your second paragraph. A lot of winterization has been done in gas fired plants and in gas production fields. If you are saying no new gas fired plants have been built, then you are correct.

I said outages are low, and we don't have a plan in place to have more generation built. I explain that in some other posts. And since you brought up winterization - during that winter storm in December that came through had we not had wind and solar that would have gotten very interesting - I think over night we had 5,000MW of derates and trips. It'll never ever be perfect, but have to plan for the obvious.

Our plan is more solar and more battery - which absolutely will fail on a winter storm repeat.

I'm not tossing anything out, it is what it is. ERCOT is a designed market with a target reserve capacity.

It's also important that volatility provides opportunities for profitability too, so the relationship between renewables and thermal power isn't only one sided. It makes winners and losers in the thermal side based on dispatch speed and flexibility.

I agree that the pricing of a dispatch and non-dispatch MWh as identical products doesn't make any sense. But that's a can of worms no one is willing to open.

Aggie_2463 said:

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gonemaroon said:

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https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/notices

"ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Thursday, August 24, 2023 HE 19:00 21:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event."

So here we go again, outages are rather low right now and demand is high and we lack the thermal generation to get us through a weather event. Over 2 years later from the winter storm and nothing is being done besides a lovefest of renewables and batteries.

Without a good amount of wind in the evening this grid is extremely tight. The biggest push at ERCOT right now is batteries that last 2 hours (ish). Would have been out of batteries during Uri before the event even occured.

I put this in another thread but PJM has built 10's of thousands of new combine cycles over the past 3-7 years - probably 30,000MW or more. I don't think anything has happened on this grid since Exelon built some that came online in 2017. I believe those or some of their fleet even went into bankruptcy during that time.

NRG is trying to sell some generation and Vistra is up against their 20% ruling so they can't built. You have the states two largest entities doing nothing one because they legally can't. Both are buying back stock.

Someone with some sense needs to fix this issue, demand is so large in Texas now that there's only one way really out of this and it's via new generation.

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Gas plants are being looked at to be built, but the market needs to make it profitable for private companies if you want it to happen.

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By profitable, you mean government kickbacks and politically favored paybacks? In other words, corruption?

Normal Conditions

There is enough power to meet current demand.
You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ERCOT dashboards.

https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards/supplyanddemand

It's a few hours from now that will be the problem.

LarryElder said:

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Normal Conditions

There is enough power to meet current demand.
You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ERCOT dashboards.

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We're all good folks. We have enough power at this very moment.

91AggieLawyer said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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gonemaroon said:

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https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/notices

"ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Thursday, August 24, 2023 HE 19:00 21:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event."

So here we go again, outages are rather low right now and demand is high and we lack the thermal generation to get us through a weather event. Over 2 years later from the winter storm and nothing is being done besides a lovefest of renewables and batteries.

Without a good amount of wind in the evening this grid is extremely tight. The biggest push at ERCOT right now is batteries that last 2 hours (ish). Would have been out of batteries during Uri before the event even occured.

I put this in another thread but PJM has built 10's of thousands of new combine cycles over the past 3-7 years - probably 30,000MW or more. I don't think anything has happened on this grid since Exelon built some that came online in 2017. I believe those or some of their fleet even went into bankruptcy during that time.

NRG is trying to sell some generation and Vistra is up against their 20% ruling so they can't built. You have the states two largest entities doing nothing one because they legally can't. Both are buying back stock.

Someone with some sense needs to fix this issue, demand is so large in Texas now that there's only one way really out of this and it's via new generation.

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Gas plants are being looked at to be built, but the market needs to make it profitable for private companies if you want it to happen.

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By profitable, you mean government kickbacks and politically favored paybacks? In other words, corruption?

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Well the Atomic Energy, EPA, and several other Fed agencies make it not profitable because of regulations and outright hostility. Not to mention the reluctance of banks and such institutions of capital to FUND the projects because of our Fed gov.

Logos Stick said:

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LarryElder said:

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Normal Conditions

There is enough power to meet current demand.
You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ERCOT dashboards.

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We're all good folks. We have enough power at this very moment.

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sigh Il check back in when nothing happens.

LarryElder said:

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Logos Stick said:

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LarryElder said:

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Normal Conditions

There is enough power to meet current demand.
You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ERCOT dashboards.

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We're all good folks. We have enough power at this very moment.

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sigh Il check back in when nothing happens.

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Whats your take, reserves wont be an issue this evening? DA clearing prices show we are pretty deep into the supply stack.

I think you're probably correct but would be interesting for everyone in this thread to learn and understand your logic and thought process.

TheEternalPessimist said:

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Bubblez said:

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Nice job conservatives

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It is you and your leftist regulations and environmental restrictions that are the #1 contributor to all this.

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It's on both the stupid leftist push for more renewables and the conservatives running our state for buying into it and allowing so many renewables to be built. It was all about pushing aside reason for money.

So at about 6pm I probably should set my thermostat down to 65 degrees to pre-cool the house just in case I lose power.

Bubblez said:

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So at about 6pm I probably should set my thermostat down to 65 degrees to pre-cool the house just in case I lose power.

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Good idea but your AC is probably close to running non-stop during that time in triple digit heat anyway.

LarryElder said:

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Logos Stick said:

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LarryElder said:

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Normal Conditions

There is enough power to meet current demand.
You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ERCOT dashboards.

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We're all good folks. We have enough power at this very moment.

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sigh Il check back in when nothing happens.

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Those in the know have already stated we'll shed industrial load to accommodate the demand. Something will probably happen, but you won't notice.

Why you would post up current conditions as important is anybody's guess.

Logos Stick said:

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Once we move from ICE to EVs, this will resolve itself.

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Teslas in particular.

Bubblez said:

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So at about 6pm I probably should set my thermostat down to 65 degrees to pre-cool the house just in case I lose power.

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further proof that the POS liberals really don't care about climate change.

It's looking like we won't have the the reserves starting around 6pm as the wind power will be zero help and solar will be fading down.

I work for Austin Energy in our Engineering department. We already had meetings with ERCOT & they have said to expect orders to engage rolling blackouts. So every Texas Utility is having that same conversations with ERCOT.

BurnetAggie99 said:

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It's looking like we won't have the the reserves starting around 6pm as the wind power will be zero help and solar will be fading down.

I work for Austin Energy in our Engineering department. We already had meetings with ERCOT & they have said to expect orders to engage rolling blackouts. So every Texas Utility is having that same conversations with ERCOT.

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There is no way blackouts will happen, at least 2 Texag Tough Guys said otherwise. One even claimed to work in power generation, no way they could ever be wrong.

Solar is currently doing all it can do.
Wind is at 75%.
Gas gen is running at 82%. Maintenance issues or the current 75.00/MW isn't peaking interest. 5,000/MW will crank up a few players if they can.

Blackouts are pretty much inevitable at this point unless something drastic happens.

Between 7:30 and just before 10PM, the prediction is up to an ~1100MW shortfall.

Looking like the customers who agree to voluntarily reduce power usage (voluntary load shedding) may not reduce overall energy usage enough this evening to make up the shortfall. If the projections remain correct (looking real close, but about 500-1000 MW difference in projected demand versus projected capacity), looks like about a 30-45 minute period starting right around 8:00 where there may be some involuntary shedding (blackouts).

XXXVII said:

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TheEternalPessimist said:

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Bubblez said:

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Nice job conservatives

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It is you and your leftist regulations and environmental restrictions that are the #1 contributor to all this.

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It's on both the stupid leftist push for more renewables and the conservatives running our state for buying into it and allowing so many renewables to be built. It was all about pushing aside reason for money.

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The deregulation of power generation and decoupling of generation from transmission/distribution is also responsible. You can thank Enron and W for that, all so Enron traders could make a buck trading electricity. At least when it was a regulated utility you didn't have to think about which of 100 different companies to choose to buy your electrons from, you just signed up for service when you moved in and paid the bill. That system also allowed large scale projects like the nuclear plant in Bay City to be built, which would be impossible now, financed by public bonds. Is power cheaper now than it otherwise would have been had the PUC regulation continued? I don't know. But it's certainly less reliable, frequently operating at capacity limits and more complicated now.

Wow, haven't had a Bush/Enron post in eons. Even better someone signed up and paid for stars just to make it.

Deregulation of the market in Texas has exactly ZERO to do with the issues of generation capacity and EVERYTHING to do with explosive population growth combined with a lack of adequate new generation capacity which has been torpedoed by stupidity in regulations on coal, nuclear, gas and other fuels inconsistent with the greenie push.

Obama more than anything is to blame. And a stupid knee jerk reaction to ***ushima that had more to do with piss poor plant design than anything else. A piss poor plant design that they ignored warnings about for decades.

Maybe we can get Austin on their own grid. Seems like they use a lotta power then scream about others.

fka ftc said:

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Deregulation of the market in Texas has exactly ZERO to do with the issues of generation capacity and EVERYTHING to do with explosive population growth combined with a lack of adequate new generation capacity which has been torpedoed by stupidity in regulations on coal, nuclear, gas and other fuels inconsistent with the greenie push.

Obama more than anything is to blame. And a stupid knee jerk reaction to ***ushima that had more to do with piss poor plant design than anything else. A piss poor plant design that they ignored warnings about for decades.

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I see the Monticello, Welch, Pirkey and Martin Creek plants all shuttered up here in East Texas. Its a shame.

fka ftc said:

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Deregulation of the market in Texas has exactly ZERO to do with the issues of generation capacity and EVERYTHING to do with explosive population growth combined with a lack of adequate new generation capacity which has been torpedoed by stupidity in regulations on coal, nuclear, gas and other fuels inconsistent with the greenie push.

Obama more than anything is to blame. And a stupid knee jerk reaction to ***ushima that had more to do with piss poor plant design than anything else. A piss poor plant design that they ignored warnings about for decades.

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On the contrary, it has quite a lot to do with it, since you replaced planned capacity increases with a bunch of thinly capitalized startups competing to be the bottom dollar provider. The other factors such as push for renewables instead of reliables contributed as well.

LinkMr. Big Time said:

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Solar is currently doing all it can do.
Wind is at 75%.
Gas gen is running at 82%. Maintenance issues or the current 75.00/MW isn't peaking interest. 5,000/MW will crank up a few players if they can.

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Link

"The operator for Texas' primary power grid issued another conservation notice on Thursday , the third in seven days asking for Texans to avoid using large appliances and reduce usage of air conditioning between the hours of 3 p.m. and 10 p.m.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) cited extreme heat, record electricity demand, expected low wind generation, solar power's evaporation as the sun sets, and tight conditions in surrounding grids as the causes for the concern.

At the time of the notice's issuance, natural gas was generating at 58 percent of its installed capacity; coal at 63 percent; solar at 60 percent; nuclear at 90 percent; and wind at 17 percent.

The grid's projections from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. are very tight, and from 7:40 p.m. to 8:35 p.m., ERCOT estimates show more electricity demand than the available capacity to meet it.
Demand is expected to peak at 85,063 MW at 5 p.m.

Of the state's roughly 8,500 MW in ancillary services a fleet of backup generators only 8 percent of that capacity had not yet been deployed. Unplanned outages were higher than normal on Thursday morning, but returned back to usual levels after the notice was issued........................."