The key is that the votes that matter, those in the middle, aren't engaged at all. Yet the focus is on polls a year away from the General. Thus you need to decide which you think is a better idea. 1)Assume all norms are out the window and suddenly Trump is polling big with women and minorities on polls a year out or 2)Assume that in the end things will go back to the norms and the Suburban vote and Catholic vote that have determined every election for decades will be the decider.agz win said:Have you come across any information that he has actually gained new national voters willing to vote for him. What groups? It seems he's not gained any in significant numbers and has only lost some who previously voted for him, particularly GOP middle America.aggie93 said:Oh I understand the Trump argument and I think the legal prosecutions are ridiculous. I'm not the voter you need to worry about though. The voter Trump needs is the one who didn't vote for him last time, isn't really happy with where the country is right now but also really don't like how he behaved on Jan 6.FireAg said:
If I were Trump, my argument would be that I'm not above actual laws, but I am above political persecution using fabricated "evidence"…
The same perceptions that are favoring Trump in the race against DeSantis will hurt him in the General with a different group of voters. Trump is great at firing up people that are sympathetic to him and glossing over the flaws. He has to get people that see his flaws and try to get them to be sympathetic. That's much, much harder.
DeSantis can just run either by pointing to Biden or on his record. He's not dynamic but he is also not someone that offends people unless they are a far left loon. That's usually how you win Swing voters, they vote AGAINST the person they like least. DeSantis is good at not making people hate him.
There are a lot of Trump voters right now saying they won't vote DeSantis in polling today for instance but that is very unlikely to be a significant group of people a year from now.
Never underestimate how much the media and the internet tries to distract you or shape your opinion, it amazes me how folks see how they treated Trump terribly and now they are doing things to boost him with GOP voters and don't think that's intentional. Trump is making HUGE mistakes with verbal gaffes and Senior moments and they are being buried. No one is asking him why he is running a basement campaign. No one is asking him how he is going to resolve his legal issues and still effectively govern. No one is asking him how he can win without any money in his campaign because it is all going to legal fees. Instead they pump up polls, say the race is over, and push the red meat he throws out on how bad he is being treated by the DOJ or how terrible Biden is.
Ronald Reagan