American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulginging.

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulgar.

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Quote:

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Bud Light Trends Crater in Week 2 of Controversy

Mich Ultra and Busch Light Momentum also Erased

TLDR: Bud Light scanner volumes are down more than 21% the week ended 4/15, losing 6.5 volume share points vs. YA.

It's been basically all of April since Dylan Mulvaney posted about March Madness and a can of Bud Light with her face on it, igniting a firestorm across social media and throwing Bud Light into a sales tailspin. But how bad is it?

As we know, the controversy really started picking up the week of the 10th, when the mainstream media made it one of the biggest national stories. Now that we have more data, a fuller picture is emerging. And indeed the brand seems to have done worse the second full week of the month.

DOLLAR PERFORMANCE. Per NielsenIQ scans courtesy of Bump Williams Consulting, Bud Light has gone from a near -7% drop in dollar sales the week ended 4/8 to down 17% the latest week, ended 4/15. It's down not quite 2% year to date.

The brand is down 6.7% of dollar share of beer vs. year ago, the latest week.

And while there's noise in the Easter comparison period vs. YA, it's still clear that the Bud Light boycott reached critical mass the second week.

Total beer dollars were up 1.7% the week ended 4/15, so Bud Light was about 19 points below the industry trend. The week prior, when beer was up 5.7%, Bud light was about 13 points below.
If you combine the latest two weeks to eliminate some of the Easter timing noise (it was as April 17 last year), Bud Light dollars are down almost 12%.

MILLER LIGHT, COORS LIGHT STILL THE BENEFICIARIES. As we wrote in last week's update (and have heard from several retailers) Miller Lite and Coors Light have been the clear beneficiaries of Bud Light's dip, and Coors Light gains accelerated this latest week.

Coors Light dollars were up 10.7% the week ended 4/8 but jumped to +17.6% the following week.
Miller Lite, which was already up 16.9% the week ended 4/8, jumped a smidge to 17.6% the following week (ended 4/15).

Bud Light's dollar share losses for the latest week are basically equal to Coors Light and Miller Lite's gains, with Coors Light dollar share of category up 3.5% vs. YA and Miller Lite's up 3.1%.

VOLUME WORSE. The volume trends tell the same story, but of course without the benefit of all that pricing. Bud Light cases are down 6.7% YTD, 10.7% to 4/8, and down more than 21% the week ended 4/15, down 6.5 volume share points vs. YA.

Coors Light cases are up 10.6% in the latest week, while Miller Lite is up 11.5% in the latest week. Again, together those two brands have gained about as much case share of the category as Bud Light lost, suggesting that all of Bud Light's losses indexed to the category are the direct result of the consumer backlash and not some other unseen vagary in beer demand.

Nor has the fallout been contained to the Bud Light brand, this latest week reveals. It appears the Bud Light boycotters have been doing their homework, (even if they are prone to style it "Bud Lite").

MICH ULTRA MOMENTUM ERASED. A-B has said it believes that Mich Ultra will surpass Bud Light in the next handful of years to become the top brand in beer. And with double digit gains as far as we can remember, that seems logical. But this latest data certainly throws the brand a curveball.

If you just look at the week ended 4/8, it would appear that Mich Ultra's trends were untouched from YTD (+10%), at up 10.4% in dollars.

The latest week of data erases those trends. Mich Ultra dollars are only up 0.4% to 4/15.

We should also note that Mich Ultra's dollar growth outperformed the category week ended 4/8 (Mich up 10.4% vs. beer up 5.7%), but underperformed the latest week (up 0.4%, vs. 1.7% respectively).

BUSCH LIGHT TAKES A TUMBLE TOO. Busch Light's enviable gains have been stunted, too. Up almost 15% in dollars YTD, the brand actually saw a little bump the week ended 4/8, up 16.5%. But it's up only 3.6% the week ended 4/15. (Two-week combined trend up about 10%, still significantly below the YTD print.)

ON-PREMISE SNAPSHOT. Up to now, we've been missing the on-premise read. Luckily we got a snapshot of data from BeerBoard, covering the two weeks prior to release of the can, vs. the two weeks following.

As anticipated, Bud Light trends are depressed in the on-trade, although we'd note that light lagers have been depressed in general in this data set.

Nationally, in BeerBoard data, April 2-15 vs. March 18-April 1, we see, per BeerBoard rate-of-sale trends:

-Bud Light dropped from #3 to #4 in overall rate of sale (ROS) during the April 2-15 period.
-In the two-week period from March 18-April 1, Bud Light outperformed the Light Lager Style ROS Index by 15%. In the following two-week period (April 2-15) Bud Light trailed the Light Lager Style ROS Index by -6%.

-Mich Ultra was #1 (March 18-April 1), and remained at #1 April 2-15.

-Coors Light was ranked #4 in ROS (March 18-April 1); it moved to #3 (April 2-15).
It's been a tough two weeks for Bud Light Blue and friends, and the industry is keenly anticipating A-B's next moves, which....

AS A-B MAKES MAJOR MARKETING CHANGES, DISTRIBS WONDER: IS IT ENOUGH?
As BBD first reported on Friday afternoon, A-B told wholesalers and later confirmed to us that Bud Light marketing VP Alissa Heinerscheid who emerged as the public face of the controversy is off the brand and taking a leave of absence, although she is not leaving the company at this time. "... Given the circumstances, Alissa has decided to take a leave of absence which we support. In the interest of our employees' safety and privacy, we're not providing any additional information," an A-B spokesperson told BBD.

Todd Allen is now VP of Bud Light, reporting directly to CMO Benoit Garbe. Todd was most recently VP of global marketing for Bud red.

Over the weekend it emerged that Alissa's boss, Daniel Blake, Group VP Marketing, Mainstream Brands, has also taken a leave of absence, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. "The decision to take a leave wasn't voluntary, according to people familiar with the matter," per the report. The moves remove layers so "our most senior marketers are more closely connected to every aspect of our brand's activities," according to A-B.

RAGEPOSTING CONTINUES. Is it enough? If you judge by the response on social media, particularly twitter, the answer is no. The outrage online has been remarkable in its strength and longevity. As AdAge writes, "the backlash against Bud Light was particularly fierce, and long-lasting, compared with typical flare-ups." And as beer companies have been publicly and loudly supporting LGBTQ+ for years, why did this particular promo catch fire?

The conclusion among marketing experts looking at recent polling "suggests that consumers are less likely to support transgender rights than same-sex marriage and abortion rights." Is that really it?
"[T]o some extent, I think it's random," said Evan Horowitz of agency Movers+Shakers to AdAge. "It's like throwing matchesthey usually hit a stone and die out." Indeed, one wonders if Kid Rock hadn't posted the original viral bit of him shooting cans of Bud Light with an automatic rifle, would this even have registered with the public at all?

WHAT TO DO? So far, A-B's public response has consisted of a neutral press release from CEO Brendan Whitworth, the leave of absences of Alissa and Daniel, and the posting of an over-the-top patriotic Budweiser ad "met with a wave of criticism, mostly from conservatives, including one person who tweeted 'Far too late for this pandering now. I've drawn my line in the sand against ridiculous wokeismcriticism,'" reports AdAge.

CATASTROPHIC OR TRANSITORY? While it's safe to say that A-B can't characterize the month of April as anything other than an unmitigated disaster, the real question is whether this is a transitory outrage that fades within a few weeks or months, or whether this is a catastrophic Schlitz moment.
Wholesalers we talked with over the weekend were split, usually depending on where they are. With Bud Light demand not much affected in some territories, that means the cratering of market share is happening in more concentrated areas, really hurting those distributors disproportionally. A-B has canceled spring equity manager meetings and will hold a closed-door confab with their wholesalers at the NBWA spring legislative conference, which starts today.

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulgar.

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Would you consider this vulgur?

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American Hardwood said:

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulgar.

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Would you consider this vulgur?

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Going to need more context, so maybe, maybe not.

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Tanya 93 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulginging.

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They were mostly singing

Nothing vulgar there

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Quote:

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Quote:

RAGEPOSTING CONTINUES. Is it enough? If you judge by the response on social media, particularly twitter, the answer is no. The outrage online has been remarkable in its strength and longevity. As AdAge writes, "the backlash against Bud Light was particularly fierce, and long-lasting, compared with typical flare-ups." And as beer companies have been publicly and loudly supporting LGBTQ+ for years, why did this particular promo catch fire?

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aTm2004 said:

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Zarathustra said:

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For those keeping score at home:

AB stock
Today + 0.2%
Week + 1.6%
Month + 4.6%
Year + 10.74%
5 Year - 36.45%

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I'm sure the middle management and hourly folks who probably won't get a bonus this year give a rats ass about their stock growth over the past 5 years.

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Zarathustra said:

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For those keeping score at home:

AB stock
Today + 0.2%
Week + 1.6%
Month + 4.6%
Year + 10.74%
5 Year - 36.45%

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Zarathustra said:

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For those keeping score at home:

AB stock
Today + 0.2%
Week + 1.6%
Month + 4.6%
Year + 10.74%
5 Year - 36.45%

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulgar.

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Would you consider this vulgur?

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Going to need more context, so maybe, maybe not.

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You need more context? Guess you don't watch old movies

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Quote:

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Bud distributors meeting with the company on Tuesday to hear plans for reversing the impact.

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American Hardwood said:

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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akm91 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulgar.

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Would you consider this vulgur?

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Going to need more context, so maybe, maybe not.

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You need more context? Guess you don't watch old movies

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In my book there is a difference between actors playing a role in a theatrical production and a "drag show". Some people may want to blur those lines, but like the old adage about pornography, I know it when I see it.

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akm91 said:

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Zarathustra said:

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For those keeping score at home:

AB stock
Today + 0.2%
Week + 1.6%
Month + 4.6%
Year + 10.74%
5 Year - 36.45%

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Bud Light is only a part of overall AB. Impact to Bud Light will not necessarily impact AB performance.

Not sure why you even threw in the historical performance. That's just weird.

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JB!98 said:

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The news of the boycott has not reached the "immigrant" class here in South Texas. HEB is rife with White boot/white belt/straw hat wearing Budlight consumers.

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Tanya 93 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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Quote:

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The drag shows weren't sexual or vulgar.

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You and I have different definitions of vulginging.

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They were mostly singing

Nothing vulgar there

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Ag with kids said:

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JB!98 said:

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The news of the boycott has not reached the "immigrant" class here in South Texas. HEB is rife with White boot/white belt/straw hat wearing Budlight consumers.

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Nah...

Even though it was in espanish, it might get me banned...

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Ag with kids said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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Gaius Julius Bevo said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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Buzzy said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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I think I am going to gage how much people are boycotting AB tomorrow.

It is Taco Tuesday, so we sell a **** ton of tacos.

I am going to offer 1.50 AB drafts and see if it sells.
If it doesn't I may change my offerings this summer to only BL and find different ones.

I don't care about the Dylan cans/sponsor stuff.

I care about profits

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You have a son, right? Do you want him attending a drag show? Do you want men wearing lingerie and getting sexual gratification from it dancing around your son?

Would you have taken him to a drag story hour?

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I have been to Drag shows.
They were fun.


Would I take my son?
No. He wouldn't be remotely interested and I am not wasting money or time on something he won't like.

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That reads like you would take him if he were interested. I don't know how old he is and I'm not picking a fight with you, but yikes.

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14, almost 15.

The shows I saw weren't vulgar.

I would be fine with him seeing them.

Much like RuPaul's Drag Race.



But he isn't interested and that is all that matters.

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WTF?

No he's not...he's 3 years old...right? RIGHT???

It's unpossible for him to be 14/15...

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Quote:

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Bud distributors meeting with the company on Tuesday to hear plans for reversing the impact.

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Hard row to hoe, but we'll see what they come up with.

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