Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

It hasn't unless you consider that they eventually defeated broke the Chechnya n's. However, as I alluded to before. the we, the US also cannot show that we have won 'war's attrition' ourselves.

like Vietnam. and our own Afghanistan fiasco, (where we once again feeding Russian resistance which came back at us in spades!


The Russians are playing in their own back yard and this is extremely important to them. They hold half of Ukraine. And they did not lose the best of the soldiers, leaders, etc. Russia has history of doing poorly early and then adjusting, I see nothing different here. Russian resolve in this case is strong.

Of course I never belieled that they had any interest in seeking to go beyond Ukraine. That is fools talk. Was never going to happen.

So who do you see a path to victory here for Ukraine that does not involve the very dangerous propect of putting western or US boots on the ground over this?

I'lll wait and will be waiting for a long time, because there is no answer to that question.

OPAG said:

---

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

It hasn't unless you consider that they eventually defeated broke the Chechnya n's. However, as I alluded to before. the we, the US also cannot show that we have won 'war's attrition' ourselves.

like Vietnam. and our own Afghanistan fiasco, (where we once again feeding Russian resistance which came back at us in spades!


The Russians are playing in their own back yard and this is extremely important to them. They hold half of Ukraine. And they did not lose the best of the soldiers, leaders, etc. Russia has history of doing poorly early and then adjusting, I see nothing different here. Russian resolve in this case is strong.

Of course I never belieled that they had any interest in seeking to go beyond Ukraine. That is fools talk. Was never going to happen.

So who do you see a path to victory here for Ukraine that does not involve the very dangerous propect of putting western or US boots on the ground over this?

I'lll wait and will be waiting for a long time, because there is no answer to that question.

---

Ok...so to start.

First...You've completely moved the goalposts that you put up. However, I will answer anyways.

Second, they don't hold half of Ukraine.

Third, Yes, Russia DID lose a large amount of their best soldiers, leaders, etc. Hell, the Wagner Group was doing more ass kicking and they're GONE.

Fourth, you point out Russian resolve...But, the Ukrainians have a lot of that same resolve too. And NOW, they are defending their OWN country instead of dying so that the Russians or Soviets can take over yet ANOTHER country.

Fifth...The path to victory? What do you define as victory? Remember, I will hold you to your FIRST definition, not one that you give later if you move the goalposts.

Sixth...My view is that this will end with the current lines...but, the only way that this stops is allowing the remaining part of Ukraine to join NATO. And, unlike you, I'm not going to infer this means that we have to put boots on the ground.

Meanwhile, as Russians grind forward in Ukraine, Zelensky (entirely unsurprisingly) announces this:

He’s trying to steal as much foreign money as possible before Trump shuts off the tap.

— torquemada (@torquemada70421) August 1, 2024

This matches the earlier (spring?) report in the French media regarding the Ukrainian pilots training for F-16 qualification.

⚡️🇺🇦🇷🇴The Romanian Ministry of Defense has prepared a report on the results of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters:

- out of 50 cadets, only 3 are ready for independent flights;

- careless attitude towards studies and reluctance to learn English;

- decline in athletic… pic.twitter.com/hsu41hO0Dl

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) July 31, 2024

With Rubio's remarks on the BRICS move from the dollar, this news is another step away from the international reliance on the dollar for trade, driven by the related sanctions having backfired spectacularly:

First, Trump made a strong statement regarding #Bitcoin in the US. Now, the news from Russia on legalizing #crypto. This is very strong signal next to the trend on digital currencies (CBDCs). #CryptoNews #Velsig https://t.co/YJSJqCKjkM

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) August 1, 2024

Concurrently, with Ukraine now an energy black hole instead of a pathway to export energy/oil/gas to Europe, Germany is suffering immensely;

Quote:

---

GERMAN ENGINEERING ORDERS DOWN 10% IN APRIL-JUNE Y/Y (DOMESTIC ORDERS DOWN 20%, FOREIGN ORDERS DOWN 5%) - VDMA

**GERMAN ENGINEERING ORDERS DOWN 9% IN JUNE Y/Y (DOMESTIC ORDERS DOWN 8%, FOREIGN ORDERS DOWN 10%) - VDMA

**GERMAN ENGINEERING ORDERS DOWN 12% Y/Y IN H1 2024 (DOMESTIC ORDERS DOWN 18%, FOREIGN ORDERS DOWN 9%) - VDMA

---

Wow so much wrong on this post, I have not move the goal post al all.

Quote:

---

Third, Yes, Russia DID lose a large amount of their best soldiers, leaders, etc. Hell, the Wagner Group was doing more ass kicking and they're GONE

---

.

I notice you do not mention our failures and lack of resolve in the last 75 years either. Why not?. Nor do you mention our corruption and our government incompetence.

Ok they may not hold half of Ukraine yet, but they do hold and will hold onto what they have and what they will continue to slowly take.

You also fail to mention how many Ukrainians men have fled the country so as not be sent to be cannon fodder.

As far as attrition goes the Russians will win this. You are willing to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian. For what purpose?

Russia is never going to allow Ukraine to enter NATO. That was what caused this mess in the first place.

And Ukraine will not be able to hold out without western boots on the ground. PERIOD.

As far as Wagner, your lack of knowledge again is rising up. Wagner was a mercenary group that Putin and the Russian army always saw as a threat. They went rogue. and are now no more. Back in Syria a few years ago it was a detachment of Wagner mercenary's that got decimated by US artillery as they tried to seize and strategic oil production point. Putin did not really care then,

The initial Russian forces were called Z, because that is what they were. I know that from inside our own intelligence.

You just have no knowledge of the Russian mindset. Anyone that thinks Putin is an incompetent fool is themselves an ignorant fool.

Russia is basically doing what they initially wanted.

And they are going to win in every arena UNLESS THE WEST DECIDES TO ESCALATE THIS INTO A WWIII scenario by sending boots on the ground or seeking to send and launch advance weapons that target Russian infrastructure and civilians.

Of course you say the Russian are targeting Ukraine's infrastructure and civilians. I would argue that Russia is in a war with Ukraine, Ukes is not part of NATO and If the Ukraine was sending it's own weapons back at Russian's that would be one thing, well they are not, they are getting those from outside.

If I was in a fight for my life with someone and you tried to give them a gun in the middle of that fight to kill me. Well, don't be surprised when I decided to try to kill you!

If the roles were reversed and Mexico was sending weapons that they got from China or other countries at us we would call those countries enemies and they are aiding and abetting our enemy to kill and hurt American's. This is what the whole Cuban Missile crisis was about, Or have you forgotten.

If we arm Ukraine to kill and hurt Russia, we are their rightful enemy and they can, just like we would, target them in return.

The military industrial complex appears to be feeling/finally showing a lot of pain today:

Intel's 15,000 layoffs, citing "margins are too low," comes five months after the Biden administration's CHIPS Act gave it an $8.5 billion gift, $11 billion in favorable loans, and $25 billion in tax cuts, on the promise to hire 10,000 people.https://t.co/qB4a2oapAl https://t.co/wWNUZeIXQq pic.twitter.com/5GVtY9M029

— Y Disassembler (@loomdoop) August 2, 2024

What a 'cluster:'

pic.twitter.com/q2XkneduQX

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 2, 2024

The Biden Democrat proxy war is called out by Orban, again:

“European policy-making has collapsed. Europe has given up defending its own interests: all that Europe is doing today is unconditionally following the foreign policy line of the US Democrats — even at the cost of its own self-destruction”.
⎯Viktor Orbánhttps://t.co/40oSMzs5EM

— Thomas Fazi (@battleforeurope) August 1, 2024

Quote:

---

So, about the reality revealed by the war. Dear friends, the war is our red pill. Think of the "Matrix" films. The hero is faced with a choice. He has two pills to choose from: if he swallows the blue pill, he can stay in the world of surface appearances; if he swallows the red pill, he can look into and descend into reality. The war is our red pill: it is what we have been given, it is what we must swallow. And now, armed with new experiences, we must talk about reality.

It is a clich that war is the continuation of policy with other means. It is important to add that war is the continuation of policy from a different perspective. So war, in its relentlessness, takes us to a new position from which to see things, to a high vantage point. And from there it gives us a completely different hitherto unknown perspective. We find ourselves in new surroundings and in a new, rarefied force field. In this pure reality, ideologies lose their power; statistical sleights of hand lose their power; media distortions and politicians' tactical dissimulation loses its power. There is no longer any relevance to widespread delusions or even to conspiracy theories. What remains is the stark, brutal reality.

---

Much more at the link/article. I highly recommend a perusal of his speech/transcript/summary.

Wow.

About 800,000 Ukrainians “went underground” to avoid mobilization

▪️These people changed their address and got jobs that paid in cash, the head of the Rada Committee on Economic Development told the Financial Times.
▪️According to Natalukha, men spend from 700 million to 2… pic.twitter.com/vns8MJwPbA

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) August 4, 2024

Their economy is in tatters because they have expended their working age population, or sent it into hiding/the diaspora. This is why they also won't make interest payments on the debt now, which again dovetails into some of the above points/discussion as to why Russia isn't in a big hurry. The war is hurting Europe much more than it is Russia's oligarchs, in simple terms (who have no real concern for their own soldiers/grunts of course).

As I said, the collapse will send shockwaves. More and more pro-🇺🇦 accounts are sounding the alarms. They’re doing the “retrospecting on what could’ve prevented this” thing to slowly prepare their audience for the horror they’re about to witness.

But I’m afraid it’s too late. https://t.co/uyMUImomId pic.twitter.com/ome1svJcul

— 𝔸𝕣𝕥𝕖𝕞 𝕠𝕗 ℝ𝕖𝕤𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 ☭🔻🔱🌌 (@CosmosEnjoyer25) August 2, 2024

🇷🇺🇺🇦NEW VIDEO: West Admits to Continued Russian Gains + Kiev's Detachment from Geopolitical Reality

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 4, 2024…

On YouTube: https://t.co/cMJJP4NEhV

▪️Western media admits to continued Russian advances along the line of contact…

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) August 3, 2024

OPAG said:

---

Wow so much wrong on this post, I have not move the goal post al all.

Quote:

---

Third, Yes, Russia DID lose a large amount of their best soldiers, leaders, etc. Hell, the Wagner Group was doing more ass kicking and they're GONE

---

---

Quote:

---

I notice you do not mention our failures and lack of resolve in the last 75 years either. Why not?. Nor do you mention our corruption and our government incompetence.

---

There's a reason why...because IT IS NOT THE SUBJECT...

If you want to discuss American having a ****ty government, start another thread on it. I'm discussing RUSSIA - not America. And RUSSIA'S track record in the past 75 years.

So...YES...you've moved the goalpost.

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

I've addressed it just not the way you want me to. Of course you are of the opinion that Putin is an incompetent idiot.

This is Russia's red line and it is their home court. They have been very consistent through out, Ukraine does not join NATO.

Do you know why we had such accurate intel on when and where Russia would invade Ukraine?

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

OPAG said:

---

I've addressed it just not the way you want me to. Of course you are of the opinion that Putin is an incompetent idiot.

This is Russia's red line and it is their home court. They have been very consistent through out, Ukraine does not join NATO.

Do you know why we had such accurate intel on when and where Russia would invade Ukraine?

---

I have never said that.

Quit moving the goalposts.

Answer the ONE question I asked.

OPAG said:

---

I've addressed it just not the way you want me to. Of course you are of the opinion that Putin is an incompetent idiot.

This is Russia's red line and it is their home court. They have been very consistent through out, Ukraine does not join NATO.

Do you know why we had such accurate intel on when and where Russia would invade Ukraine?

---

Please tell me. I would love to know exactly how you know this information.

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

---

Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

---

Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

I stated my point.

I didn't pick an arbitrary date. Yesterday is an arbitrary date. I picked the start of the war. Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained. Neither of which are arbitrary.

Russia has lost a lot of bodies since then. In fact, they've lost MOST of their bodies since then. And yet the lines are essentially stagnant.

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

---

Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

I stated my point.

I didn't pick an arbitrary date. Yesterday is an arbitrary date. I picked the start of the war. Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained. Neither of which are arbitrary.

Russia has lost a lot of bodies since then. In fact, they've lost MOST of their bodies since then. And yet the lines are essentially stagnant.

---

Yesterday is not arbitrary. Today vs yesterday is a measure of the current trend. HTH.

"3 months after" is arbitrary, unless you can tell us what it is based on. Can you do that?

"Most"? Citation needed. Russia has lost many, but nothing close to most.

We knew because the Russian military contacted their US counter parts and basically told them when and what they were going to do. And what they basically wanted to know is a US response would mean US foces deployed on behalf of Ukraine. They were given assurance that there would be no direct US military intervention. and how I know this is none of your freaking business. LOL

[If you are going to state things as facts on this thread, you need to post a source, especially if asked about it. Otherwise, you need to refrain from posting the information. Yes, we know this has been done numerous times on both sides of this debate on this thread. Our goal here in moderation is not, nor has it ever been, to moderate against the standards 24/7 on this thread. We are here to remind users what the expectations are for engaging in debates with each other. Debating in good faith requires posting some level of information to back your claims. If you can't do that they are your opinion and you need to present them as an opinion. If you are truly presenting insider information from within the intel community, you need to at least disclose that type of information in general terms or don't disclose at all. What you can't do is tell other users that it "is none of your freaking business" when they ask about information you decided to post. Again, this is not posting/debating in good faith. -Staff]

OPAG said:

---

We knew because the Russian military contacted their US counter parts and basically told them when and what they were going to do. And what they basically wanted to know is a US response would mean US foces deployed on behalf of Ukraine. They were given assurance that there would be no direct US military intervention. and how I know this is none of your freaking business. LOL

---

This is true. In fact, we have proof: https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/commentary/joe-bidens-minor-incursion-russia-remark-history-proves-it-was-mistake

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

---

Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

I stated my point.

I didn't pick an arbitrary date. Yesterday is an arbitrary date. I picked the start of the war. Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained. Neither of which are arbitrary.

Russia has lost a lot of bodies since then. In fact, they've lost MOST of their bodies since then. And yet the lines are essentially stagnant

---

Yesterday is not arbitrary. Today vs yesterday is a measure of the current trend. HTH.

---

In a war that's been going on for a year and a half, using the metric of 1 day is as meaningless as saying you have one data point and you're going to draw a line through it.

Quote:

---

"3 months after" is arbitrary, unless you can tell us what it is based on. Can you do that?

---

Sure. In fact I did it in my post, which you quoted...

Quote:

---

Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained.

---

And then we have this...

Quote:

---

"Most"? Citation needed. Russia has lost many, but nothing close to most.

---

Are you really going to claim that Russia lost MORE bodies in the first 3 months than they have since then?

OPAG said:

---

We knew because the Russian military contacted their US counter parts and basically told them when and what they were going to do. And what they basically wanted to know is a US response would mean US foces deployed on behalf of Ukraine. They were given assurance that there would be no direct US military intervention. and how I know this is none of your freaking business. LOL

---

Ah...

It's true because you posted it. But, you can't tell us HOW you know it. That's secret.

Ok...

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

OPAG said:

---

No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

---

The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

---

Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

---

Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

---

There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

---

Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

---

I stated my point.

I didn't pick an arbitrary date. Yesterday is an arbitrary date. I picked the start of the war. Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained. Neither of which are arbitrary.

Russia has lost a lot of bodies since then. In fact, they've lost MOST of their bodies since then. And yet the lines are essentially stagnant

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Yesterday is not arbitrary. Today vs yesterday is a measure of the current trend. HTH.

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In a war that's been going on for a year and a half, using the metric of 1 day is as meaningless as saying you have one data point and you're going to draw a line through it.

Quote:

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"3 months after" is arbitrary, unless you can tell us what it is based on. Can you do that?

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Sure. In fact I did it in my post, which you quoted...

Quote:

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Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained.

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And then we have this...

Quote:

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"Most"? Citation needed. Russia has lost many, but nothing close to most.

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Are you really going to claim that Russia lost MORE bodies in the first 3 months than they have since then?

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That is exactly what I suspected. You picked the date range that makes Uke feel good while completely ignoring the recent trends on the battlefield. There's nothing wrong with that, but it makes your bias obvious, which isn't convincing.

What exactly is the significance of 3 months after the war? Or 6 months or 1 year? Or 3 months ago? Etc. etc.

‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦"This could radically change the situation at the front"
▪️The Russians launched a railway from Rostov to Mariupol via Granitnoye/Malovodnoye, the largest Ukrainian propaganda media quote with reference to the fake adviser to the “head” of Mariupol.
▪️This could radically… pic.twitter.com/vf5FIb5769

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 5, 2024

More Ukrainian reports of shifting Russian tactics/strategy;

‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian officer about Russian assaults: “They found their effective system”

▪️A Ukrainian officer with the call sign “Alex” conveyed the impressions of the military of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade about the tactics of the Russians in the Toretsk direction.
▪️According to… pic.twitter.com/o8fE5e7ufE

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 4, 2024

[No need for ad hominems. -Staff]

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Ag with kids said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Ag with kids said:

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OPAG said:

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No, I have not moved the goal post, I am just not letting you define what goal post are.

The realty is the US has big part to play in this whole fiasco. And Russia (Putin) absolutely is aware of the US lack of resolve and willingness to fully commit itself to this type of conflict.

It is very much a key factor in all this. Despite your attempt to defer away.

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The statement you replied to was this:

Quote:

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Where has it been proven in the last 75 year that Russia knows "that they can win a prolonged war of attrition"?

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Where, in ANYTHING you have posted, have you even addressed this statement?

Right now, you have SPECULATION that Putin "knows" it. But, that is it.

And the Russian's 1940s "Bodies for Bullets" is not a strategy that will work in 2024.

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There is one problem with your position: As far as I can tell it is working. Russia owns more of Ukraine than it did before this started. So you're forcing me to ask, what exactly is this based on? Throwing bodies at the problem appears to be working for the Ruskis. For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

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Russia owned a LOT more of Ukraine 3 months into this war than they do now. So, what have they been losing all those bodies for since then?

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Sure, but Russia own's more of Ukraine today than they did yesterday- on what are you basing an arbitrary date from roughly 3 years ago? And I'll ask again since you might've missed it: For 3 years we've been told Russia is going to run out of bodies. They haven't yet, so when will they?

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I stated my point.

I didn't pick an arbitrary date. Yesterday is an arbitrary date. I picked the start of the war. Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained. Neither of which are arbitrary.

Russia has lost a lot of bodies since then. In fact, they've lost MOST of their bodies since then. And yet the lines are essentially stagnant

---

Yesterday is not arbitrary. Today vs yesterday is a measure of the current trend. HTH.

---

In a war that's been going on for a year and a half, using the metric of 1 day is as meaningless as saying you have one data point and you're going to draw a line through it.

Quote:

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"3 months after" is arbitrary, unless you can tell us what it is based on. Can you do that?

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Sure. In fact I did it in my post, which you quoted...

Quote:

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Then I picked 3 months after, when they had pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they initially gained.

---

And then we have this...

Quote:

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"Most"? Citation needed. Russia has lost many, but nothing close to most.

---

Are you really going to claim that Russia lost MORE bodies in the first 3 months than they have since then?

---

That is exactly what I suspected. You picked the date range that makes Uke feel good while completely ignoring the recent trends on the battlefield. There's nothing wrong with that, but it makes your bias obvious, which isn't convincing.

What exactly is the significance of 3 months after the war? Or 6 months or 1 year? Or 3 months ago? Etc. etc.

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That was the high point of Russian occupation. They got pushed back basically to the current lines shortly after that.

"Morale boosting flights" was not on my bingo card.

🇺🇦 And here we go. The latest 'game changer' is officially in Ukraine.

Zelensky posted a video of the jets, hoping they will bring 'victory closer.'

Meanwhile, the first morale-boosting flights have been spotted over Odessa. pic.twitter.com/0fHcvRvNNu

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) August 4, 2024

I have my doubts on their ability to "game change"

NYT: Ukraine war fatigue sets in:

Quote:

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Well, The New York Times had a story last week about a shift in the mood in Ukraine, with ordinary Ukrainian citizens and even some government leaders making noise about finding an exit from the seemingly unending conflict over a few miles of territory.

Thousands of people are dying with no end in sight, impoverishing the country, breaking families apart, and undermining the economy of an already poor country. Elections have been called off, men are being kidnapped off the streets and sent to become cannon fodder, and neither side is making progress toward their goals.

Finally war fatigue is setting in.

Quote:

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In mid-July, a survey by the Ukrainian independent media outlet ZN.UAfound that about 44 percent of Ukrainian civilians favored starting official talks with Russia. On July 23, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released a poll showing that nearly a third of Ukrainians would agree to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. That's more than three times as many as the year before.

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…
Russia wants to keep the territory it has claimed, which includes Crimea and some of Eastern Ukraine in which ethnic Russians dominate the population. Crimea isn't going back to Ukraine in the foreseeable future, and while the other territory may be recoverable, it won't be at a reasonable cost to anybody. Russia's claims to the territory are hardly ironclad, but they aren't absurd either. There are a lot of Russians there and the borders were drawn kinda arbitrarily, as they often are.

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Ukraine shouldn't be on an 'irreversible' path into Nato.

The 'good guys;'

▪️Russian troops entered Zhelanne from the direction of the railway station, occupying several streets. East of the locality, the Russian Armed Forces managed to reach the road connecting Zhelanne and Novoselivka Persha, creating a threat of encirclement for the AFU.

▪️In…

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) August 5, 2024

Sorry guys, you have to keep fighting through at least early November. Oh, and apparently Sting sold his Italian winery estate to Zelensky for 75 million euro's, adding to his other Italian properties. Maybe a retirement plan.

If only someone had warned these people 2 years ago when all of this started that they'd inevitably lose and the West was just using them, knowing in the end they'd all die and lose everything.... https://t.co/YYcAVkVNBT

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) August 6, 2024

I'm not exactly sure if Harri is referring to a large push or if he is speaking to continuing atrophy- but Brian drives home the told you so point well.

Russia does not care about human life and will keep throwing Russians soldiers at the front line. Difference is now even though they are not using much armored equipment they have drones overhead watching for Uke equipment. Once the Ukes open up on the Russian soldiers the drones spot the armored equipment and Russia takes them out with another drone. Last I read was Russia was producing over 4,000 drones a day

The "Kursk Offensive" is essentially ending it sounds like. Typical AFU PR stunt more than anything.

Condottiero reports:

07-08-2024. Kursk. Borderland.

All night long, the Russian Armed Forces launched missile strikes and aircraft were operating against the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy and Kharkov. Around 20 Geraniums flew there during the night and are still…

— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) August 7, 2024

Russian troops captured the center of New York and raised the Russian flag. pic.twitter.com/DxOKwNKR9f

— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) August 6, 2024

Sitrep:

⚡️‼️🚨New report out now!https://t.co/n3lXa0vMJW#war #russia #ukraine #iran #palestine #israel #politics #geopolitics pic.twitter.com/mZy6O9MEOs

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 7, 2024

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This leads to the next natural question though: why did Zelensky launch this now of all times? The most likely reasonor at least only one that seems obvious at the momentis that Ukraine's Donbass collapse is picking up such speed right now, that Zelensky needed a desperate PR victory to deflect from Russia's crushing successes.

Alexander Khodakovsky summarized it best:

Quote:

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Alexander Khodakovsky:
The enemy's actions in the Kursk region fit perfectly into the logic of this phase of the war: when you are knocked down, you need to quickly raise your hands and show the referee that you are capable of fighting, otherwise the fight will be stopped and you will be counted as a loser. Yesterday I wrote that in one form or another we will see attempts to seize the initiative.

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There's also the consideration that so much has been going on in the headlines recently, what with Israeli-Iran escalation and now the huge financial crash, Zelensky likely felt Ukraine slowly slipping from the headlines, and needed to give it a jolt, lest it be totally swept out of the news cycle.

At the same time as Ukrainian forces were heading into Kursk region, Russian forces not only announced the capture of New York, but that capture even stitched up a whole cauldron from which a major contingent of AFU were forced to retreat out of.

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Meh, seems like they had some initial success, though it's probably a longer term waste of lives/equipment such as those Strykers. More at the update above. Prioritizing getting close enough to shell a nuke plant just to pressure Russia in negotiations is absurd, but we are talking about Ukraine here. Likely, that threat will be over in short order.

Wow, quite a gambit if the UFA brigades involved are what I read earlier, including 80th, 82nd…

Quick update on the ongoing Ukrainian attack into Kursk.

The AFU has been throwing in reinforcements and continuing to attack despite considerable losses thus far - the deepest penetration seen has been a Ukrainian detachment spotted near the village of Leonidovo and… pic.twitter.com/zhsfajxoee

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 7, 2024

Putin on the situation in Kursk region:

''As it's known, the Kiev regime has undertaken another large-scale provocation, conducting indiscriminate shelling from various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, residential buildings, ambulances.

Immediately…

— Global Thinker (@talkrealopinion) August 7, 2024

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Situation in Kursk region

Throughout the night and morning, Ukrainian forces made attempts to expand the part of Kursk region under their control. Judging by the latest information, since the beginning of the offensive the AFU units have occupied several settlements in… pic.twitter.com/MUL0fNMqNW

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) August 7, 2024

They're…not gonna take Kursk, so I still don't see why they'd waste 3 or 4 of their best remaining reserve brigades on this campaign. They have zero ability to support this or defend the forces exposed at this point. I will decline to post videos of Russian bombardments of those in the pocket but it's clearly resulting in heavy losses for the UFA.

Wow.

"A commander of the 24th brigade, recently transferred from Niu-York to Chasiv Yar, two of the hottest sections of the front, says battalions in his brigade are now fighting with just 20 people in position, less than a platoon size...

says his brigade...has been rationed to two… pic.twitter.com/mAuLShTASE

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 8, 2024

Meanwhile;

Reports claim Ukraine has brought up 2 Patriot systems to cover the Kursk grouping.
⚡️There's a report that a Su-35 fired 2 x Kh-31 anti radar missiles at a Patriot radar that was "lighting up" Su-34s in the Kursk area....the result is not known apart from the radar stopped…

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 8, 2024

Afternoon Ukraine update!
The Ukrainian Hail-Mary offensive into Kursk is still dominating the headlines - I've attached a Sofa General Staff* map showing the current situation. Last night the Ukrainians reportedly advanced somewhat to the west of their initial stab through… pic.twitter.com/GVUJvxHYQJ

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 8, 2024

Concluding bit:

Quote:

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Why did the AFU command go with this desperate gamble? After all, these were their reserves. Russian troops in the Donbass seem to have gotten a "go order" today and made significant gains (particularly in the ever-growing Ocheretino Salient) with seemingly little effort, likely aware the Ukrainian reserve pool is bottoming out. Well, it's simple - as I explained at length earlier, the status quo of the war favors Russia. If things continued, the AFU would gradually be strangled to death in the Donbass and the war would end on Putin's terms. They needed to change the game and an "off-axis" attack offered the chance to achieve shocking success and bring Putin to the table on Zelensky's terms... if things worked out.

---

Pretty crazy strategy/plan, imho. Meanwhile, Zelensky the green openly talks about a referendum to cede the lost lands officially, so he can just concede to the 'will of the people.' Maybe, just maybe…he should also consider holding at least a Venezuelan style election. I don't know why there is some notion that a referendum would be acceptable but an election just too much amidst the war.

I was speaking with a friend last night and asked how in the heck Ukraine would have the logistics for anything more than a surprise type of attack. It is going to be easy for Russia to either surround or at least cover Ukraine on 3 sides.

Wonder in the end how much equipment Ukraine is going to lose. If they really did bring a Patriot system that close to the front lines and lose it...wow.

I know Russia has troops all over the world like Sudan, Iran, Venezuela, Mali, and CAR, but they still are committing a ridiculous amount of troops to Ukraine.

Russia's Achilles heel for their global deployments is ironically their logistical capabilities/sustainment. They don't maintain a real substantial amount of combat aviation/heavy equipment/spares storage etc. in places like Syria/Africa (some, of course), the way the US does/would.

From what I've read for the Kursk offensive Ukraine pulled around 3 of their most elite brigades held in reserve/around Kiev, so they were pretty fully outfitted/staffed prior to this mission. I would expect when it's all over they will be around 50% or more of materiel losses, but that's really just a swag. I read that reinforcements were received on the RU side, yet also read that there was a column of "Wagner" forces moving from Belarus as well. The combination of conscripts and Wagner would lend credence to the thought that these aren't the best Russian units/leadership groups in the theater.

Rybar has called it pretty straight, fwiw, an 'operational crisis' and I think it does reach a critical rail line for the Russians:

Rybar Live: About the situation in Kursk region, August 7
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «The situation in the Kursk region allows the Ukrainian formations and their leaders to buy in some incomprehensible way for themselves the failures that they are… pic.twitter.com/elHzopkU1Q

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) August 8, 2024

In the fwiw category of Russian defense ministry releases:

❗️Official statement of the Russian Ministry of Defence on the situation in the Kursk region

▪️Units of the Northern Group of the Russian Armed Forces, together with the Federal Security Service of Russia, continue to destroy armed formations of the AFU in the Sudzhensky and…

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) August 8, 2024

There will be very little effective cover/concealment in this compressed space at this point, I believe, given UAV/satellite surveillance alike. Some helo losses by the Russians is not surprising but it's a target rich environment for all manner of direct/indirect fire both.

nortex97 said:

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Wow.

"A commander of the 24th brigade, recently transferred from Niu-York to Chasiv Yar, two of the hottest sections of the front, says battalions in his brigade are now fighting with just 20 people in position, less than a platoon size...

says his brigade...has been rationed to two… pic.twitter.com/mAuLShTASE

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 8, 2024

Meanwhile;

Reports claim Ukraine has brought up 2 Patriot systems to cover the Kursk grouping.
⚡️There's a report that a Su-35 fired 2 x Kh-31 anti radar missiles at a Patriot radar that was "lighting up" Su-34s in the Kursk area....the result is not known apart from the radar stopped…

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 8, 2024

Afternoon Ukraine update!
The Ukrainian Hail-Mary offensive into Kursk is still dominating the headlines - I've attached a Sofa General Staff* map showing the current situation. Last night the Ukrainians reportedly advanced somewhat to the west of their initial stab through… pic.twitter.com/GVUJvxHYQJ

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 8, 2024

Concluding bit:

Quote:

---

Why did the AFU command go with this desperate gamble? After all, these were their reserves. Russian troops in the Donbass seem to have gotten a "go order" today and made significant gains (particularly in the ever-growing Ocheretino Salient) with seemingly little effort, likely aware the Ukrainian reserve pool is bottoming out. Well, it's simple - as I explained at length earlier, the status quo of the war favors Russia. If things continued, the AFU would gradually be strangled to death in the Donbass and the war would end on Putin's terms. They needed to change the game and an "off-axis" attack offered the chance to achieve shocking success and bring Putin to the table on Zelensky's terms... if things worked out.

---

Pretty crazy strategy/plan, imho. Meanwhile, Zelensky the green openly talks about a referendum to cede the lost lands officially, so he can just concede to the 'will of the people.' Maybe, just maybe…he should also consider holding at least a Venezuelan style election. I don't know why there is some notion that a referendum would be acceptable but an election just too much amidst the war.

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did I read it wrong the guy on that twiiter post pretty much said UKE offensive is a failure?