Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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nortex97
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Turkey seeks BRICS admission. If they do this more formally I expect them to shift their policies on Russian warships transiting to/from the Black Sea.
Quote:

Turkey has renewed its interest in joining the BRICS economic bloc, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announcing that the issue will be discussed at an upcoming ministerial meeting in Russia. This move comes as Turkey continues to seek alternative economic partnerships amidst its stalled bid to join the European Union.

Fidan expressed optimism about Turkey's potential membership in BRICS, stating, *"Certainly, we would like to become a member of Brics. So we'll see how it goes this year. "* The ministerial meeting in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, will bring together foreign ministers from BRICS countries, including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.


Stoltenberg: "Russia has been able to build up defense industry faster than we expected."

As many of us have noted for a while. Relatedly, Putin's 'hidden game in the South Caucasus' is something to keep an eye on. Once again, our feckless foreign policy apparatus is…well it's not doing anything useful.
notex
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US, Nato get ready for war in Europe.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/06/04/us-and-nato-preparing-for-war-in-europe-n3789621

Quote:

In short, the entire conflict is a mess. Lots of people are dying, and everybody miscalculated. And here we are. Tensions are escalating, and while World War III is not inevitable, we are closer than we would have been if Russia had been deterred--as they were in the years between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Biden's vacillation in 2022.

Biden, you may recall, sent signals to Russia prior to the invasion that the West might tolerate a "small incursion," much as April Glaspie implied to Saddam Hussein that the US might look the other way if Kuwait were invaded.
Quote:

On Wednesday, Biden had predicted Russia would invade Ukraine, but suggested there was a split among NATO members about how to respond if Moscow took action that stopped short of sending its troops across the border something Biden referred to as a "minor incursion." He said:
Quote:

"I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."

Biden clearly miscalculated in his comments, and now the US and Europe are planning for how to rush troops to a front should Russia move further West.
Quote:

Nato is developing multiple "land corridors" to rush US troops and armour to the front lines in the event of a major European ground war with Russia.

American soldiers would land at one of five ports and be channelled along pre-planned logistical routes to confront a possible attack by Moscow, officials told The Telegraph.

It comes amid warnings from the Alliance's top leaders that Western governments must prepare themselves for a conflict with Russia in the next two decades.

Logistical routes have become a key priority since Nato leaders agreed to prepare 300,000 troops to be kept in a state of high readiness to defend the alliance at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year.

Existing plans have US troops landing at Dutch ports before boarding trains that transport them through Germany and onwards to Poland.

In the event of a Russian invasion of Nato, US troops would be shipped to the port of Rotterdam before being transported eastward.

But arrangements are also being made behind the scenes to expand the routes to other ports to ensure the ground line of communications cannot be severed by Moscow's forces.
Lt Gen Alexander Sollfrank, the chief of Nato's Jsec logistics command, told The Telegraph: "Ukraine suffers very much from these Russian long-range missile attacks on the logistic systems."
It would be an exaggeration to suggest that planning for a conflict in Eastern Europe makes war inevitable. In fact, the reason why NATO is making these noises and revealing that it is making plans is, I am sure, all about deterrence. At this juncture, not making plans would be imprudent.
Ludicrous.
Ag with kids
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notex said:

US, Nato get ready for war in Europe.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/06/04/us-and-nato-preparing-for-war-in-europe-n3789621

Quote:

In short, the entire conflict is a mess. Lots of people are dying, and everybody miscalculated. And here we are. Tensions are escalating, and while World War III is not inevitable, we are closer than we would have been if Russia had been deterred--as they were in the years between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Biden's vacillation in 2022.

Biden, you may recall, sent signals to Russia prior to the invasion that the West might tolerate a "small incursion," much as April Glaspie implied to Saddam Hussein that the US might look the other way if Kuwait were invaded.
Quote:

On Wednesday, Biden had predicted Russia would invade Ukraine, but suggested there was a split among NATO members about how to respond if Moscow took action that stopped short of sending its troops across the border something Biden referred to as a "minor incursion." He said:
Quote:

"I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."

Biden clearly miscalculated in his comments, and now the US and Europe are planning for how to rush troops to a front should Russia move further West.
Quote:

Nato is developing multiple "land corridors" to rush US troops and armour to the front lines in the event of a major European ground war with Russia.

American soldiers would land at one of five ports and be channelled along pre-planned logistical routes to confront a possible attack by Moscow, officials told The Telegraph.

It comes amid warnings from the Alliance's top leaders that Western governments must prepare themselves for a conflict with Russia in the next two decades.

Logistical routes have become a key priority since Nato leaders agreed to prepare 300,000 troops to be kept in a state of high readiness to defend the alliance at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year.

Existing plans have US troops landing at Dutch ports before boarding trains that transport them through Germany and onwards to Poland.

In the event of a Russian invasion of Nato, US troops would be shipped to the port of Rotterdam before being transported eastward.

But arrangements are also being made behind the scenes to expand the routes to other ports to ensure the ground line of communications cannot be severed by Moscow's forces.
Lt Gen Alexander Sollfrank, the chief of Nato's Jsec logistics command, told The Telegraph: "Ukraine suffers very much from these Russian long-range missile attacks on the logistic systems."
It would be an exaggeration to suggest that planning for a conflict in Eastern Europe makes war inevitable. In fact, the reason why NATO is making these noises and revealing that it is making plans is, I am sure, all about deterrence. At this juncture, not making plans would be imprudent.
Ludicrous.
I agree.

It is completely agree that it is ludicrous that US and NATO will be going to war in Europe.
Ags4DaWin
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Ag with kids said:

notex said:

US, Nato get ready for war in Europe.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/06/04/us-and-nato-preparing-for-war-in-europe-n3789621

Quote:

In short, the entire conflict is a mess. Lots of people are dying, and everybody miscalculated. And here we are. Tensions are escalating, and while World War III is not inevitable, we are closer than we would have been if Russia had been deterred--as they were in the years between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Biden's vacillation in 2022.

Biden, you may recall, sent signals to Russia prior to the invasion that the West might tolerate a "small incursion," much as April Glaspie implied to Saddam Hussein that the US might look the other way if Kuwait were invaded.
Quote:

On Wednesday, Biden had predicted Russia would invade Ukraine, but suggested there was a split among NATO members about how to respond if Moscow took action that stopped short of sending its troops across the border something Biden referred to as a "minor incursion." He said:
Quote:

"I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."

Biden clearly miscalculated in his comments, and now the US and Europe are planning for how to rush troops to a front should Russia move further West.
Quote:

Nato is developing multiple "land corridors" to rush US troops and armour to the front lines in the event of a major European ground war with Russia.

American soldiers would land at one of five ports and be channelled along pre-planned logistical routes to confront a possible attack by Moscow, officials told The Telegraph.

It comes amid warnings from the Alliance's top leaders that Western governments must prepare themselves for a conflict with Russia in the next two decades.

Logistical routes have become a key priority since Nato leaders agreed to prepare 300,000 troops to be kept in a state of high readiness to defend the alliance at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year.

Existing plans have US troops landing at Dutch ports before boarding trains that transport them through Germany and onwards to Poland.

In the event of a Russian invasion of Nato, US troops would be shipped to the port of Rotterdam before being transported eastward.

But arrangements are also being made behind the scenes to expand the routes to other ports to ensure the ground line of communications cannot be severed by Moscow's forces.
Lt Gen Alexander Sollfrank, the chief of Nato's Jsec logistics command, told The Telegraph: "Ukraine suffers very much from these Russian long-range missile attacks on the logistic systems."
It would be an exaggeration to suggest that planning for a conflict in Eastern Europe makes war inevitable. In fact, the reason why NATO is making these noises and revealing that it is making plans is, I am sure, all about deterrence. At this juncture, not making plans would be imprudent.
Ludicrous.
I agree.

It is completely agree that it is ludicrous that US and NATO will be going to war in Europe.


The west and Europe has been very clear since before they orchestrated the environment that led to this conflict what they were going to do and how they were going to do it in order to innoculate the public for the announcement when it came.

It's a very basic psyop and a very effective way to get the masses to agree to something they would otherwise abhor.

And they are using the same playbook here.

More and more it is looking like their end goal is direct conflict with Russia.

If they allow Ukraine to start striking into Russian territory with weapons manufactured in the west, it will cause an escalation that it will be all but impossible for Russia to walk away from.
GAC06
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They're already striking targets in Russia. Well I guess that's not even new since Russia annexed the land they took, but I guess that's not "really" Russia now.
nortex97
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Joe Biden muttered about Ukraine not joining nato, Poland being next etc., yesterday:
Quote:

US President Joe Biden's vision of peace for Ukraine does not necessarily NATO membership, according to his interview with Time magazine, published on Tuesday.

Biden sat down with Time's editor in chief and Washington bureau chief at the White House on May 28, speaking about his policy on Ukraine, China, Israel and election-related matters.

"Peace looks like making sure Russia never, never, never, never occupies Ukraine. That's what peace looks like. And it doesn't mean NATO, they are part of NATO," Biden said, when asked about the endgame in Ukraine.

"It means we have a relationship with them like we do with other countries, where we supply weapons so they can defend themselves in the future," he added. "But it is not, if you notice, I was the one whenand you guys did report it at TIMEthe one that I was saying that I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine."

Biden then argued that the West is "on a slippery slope for war if we don't do something about Ukraine," and that if Kiev falls then "you'll see Poland go, and you'll see all those nations along the actual border of Russia, from the Balkans and Belarus, all those, they're going to make their own accommodations."
Sitrep:
Quote:

Thus, at least they have ceased exaggerating their own strength and now concede their own vulnerabilities. But in the end, as always: NATO can only remain relevantand thus, fundedif it maintains the illusion of its own essential indispensability; so churn that fear!

Russian programs, by the same token, are responding to the latest escalations with renewed talks of striking Poland:
CFR shills begin writing about withdrawing from Kiev:


Much more at the link. Forever war!
PlaneCrashGuy
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Was cleaning up old book marks. Thought I'd share a reminder that Russia's been on the brink of collapse for a couple years now. Its just not so. Never was.
nortex97
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Sounds like the (American) cabinet realizes there are threats from Zelensky. At various times there have been surveys/claims that Zelensky is still trusted/respected within Ukraine, but in reality that is not the case, and hasn't been for a while, imho:



Ukrainians abroad, including those with dual citizenship, are commanded to return home by the Zelensky regime;

PlaneCrashGuy
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Rare to see negative analysis from a Uke flag PFP. I think he's right though
FJB24
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Tit for tat, yet another diplomatic face palm.

Artorias
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nortex97 said:


How very East Germany/Berlin of Zelensky... such freedom!
nortex97
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Yes, widening the conflict by providing long range weapons to folks in places like Syria/Yemen sound like what he is considering.
Quote:

"Secondly, if someone deems it possible to supply such weapons to the war zone, to strike our territory… why shouldn't we supply similar weapons to those regions of the world, where they will be used against sensitive sites of these countries?" the Russian president added. "We can respond asymmetrically. We will give it a thought."

If the West continues to escalate, such actions "will completely destroy international relations and undermine international security," Putin noted.

"If we see that these countries are being drawn into a war against us, and this is their direct participation in the war against Russia, then we reserve the right to act in a similar way. This is a recipe for very serious problems," he warned.
Long thread, worth reading:


Bumbling along toward WW3:

chickencoupe16
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Yeah, I'm not sure I'm gonna put a lot of faith into the guy saying the US was stupid for getting drug into WWII.
J. Walter Weatherman
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chickencoupe16 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm gonna put a lot of faith into the guy saying the US was stupid for getting drug into WWII.


That twitter feed is also pro China and pro hamas. So yea, great sourcing as usual.
Ag with kids
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FJB24 said:

Tit for tat, yet another diplomatic face palm.


Yes.

Taking those weapons out of that giant unused store of them that they're just saving instead of using in Ukraine.
OPAG
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Quote:


This is so absolutely spot on truth, it needs to have it's own separate comment, even thread. It is just 100% spot on.

GAC06
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Except it's not, according to Gorbachev himself.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/
Rossticus
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The actual, literal Russians I'm acquainted with think it's…ummm… amusing… that any Americans accept that angle as a good faith justification. They just roll their eyes.
YouBet
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I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

Except it's not, according to Gorbachev himself.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/


"To be be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

So Moscow was given assurances and NATO got them on a technicality.
Ag with kids
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YouBet said:

I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
Well, we're currently in a zero theater war, so we have a bit of a way to go to get to 3...
Ag with kids
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Except it's not, according to Gorbachev himself.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/


"To be be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

So Moscow was given assurances and NATO got them on a technicality.
It's interesting that the article has no criticisms about NATO expansion from GORBACHEV in it, just an editorial comment by the author...
nortex97
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Yeah, James Baker and Robert Gates are just abject liars about it. And of course Hungary's position today should be…discarded. As should Nuland's role in the Maidan coup (passing out cookies only, of course). As should Biden's role in declaring Putin 'had to do something' before the SMO began. As should the Biden familia's role in Burisma and the Trump coup.

As should…well, anyway. It's perfectly fine that Nato has expanded to threaten to absorb what is left of Ukraine, and is arming and targeting weapons striking into non-military targets in Russia this evening, right?

Sitrep.
Quote:

There is a lot to digest and unpack here, so let's do it one thing at a time.
Let's first spell out exactly what he says:
  • Ukraine loses 50,000 men per month, both irrecoverable and sanitary losses, i.e. total casualties included wounded, KIA, etc.
  • The ratio of their wounded to irrecoverable/KIA is 50/50, which means out of 50k, 25k of them are actually irrecoverable losses. (note: this is a high proportion to wounded because of Ukraine's comparative lack of battlefield medicine which causes far more wounded to die, not to mention Russia's usage of powerful airstrikes/bombs which proportionally simply kills far more soldiers outright)
  • Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 new men per month from the street.
  • The ratio between Russian and Ukrainian losses is 1:5 in favor of Russia.
  • The ratio of POWs is 1,348 to 6,465 in favor of Russia.

So, in the big picture, this is all…debating what will be ancient history. Which is to say how Ukraine falls/ends. Much more at the link, as always.

Forever war!
YouBet
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Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
Well, we're currently in a zero theater war, so we have a bit of a way to go to get to 3...


Right and it's sort of laughable that we could. This US population can't do that.
Ag with kids
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YouBet said:

Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
Well, we're currently in a zero theater war, so we have a bit of a way to go to get to 3...


Right and it's sort of laughable that we could. This US population can't do that.
Well, we've never claimed we would.

Where are these 3 theaters that you're talking about?
YouBet
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Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
Well, we're currently in a zero theater war, so we have a bit of a way to go to get to 3...


Right and it's sort of laughable that we could. This US population can't do that.
Well, we've never claimed we would.

Where are these 3 theaters that you're talking about?



I'm laughing about the Foreign Affairs article above. Admittedly, I didn't read it so shame on me. Going off title. Just think it's laughable that we think we can operate in three theaters in a war if that is what is suggested.
Ag with kids
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YouBet said:

Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

I do find it somewhat laughable that we could fight a three theater war. Not that I'm a military expert at all, but I've read enough to know that even operating a two theater strategy stretches us to the limit of effectiveness.

Now put our current military leaders and admin over that and it's a clown car.
Well, we're currently in a zero theater war, so we have a bit of a way to go to get to 3...


Right and it's sort of laughable that we could. This US population can't do that.
Well, we've never claimed we would.

Where are these 3 theaters that you're talking about?



I'm laughing about the Foreign Affairs article above. Admittedly, I didn't read it so shame on me. Going off title. Just think it's laughable that we think we can operate in three theaters in a war if that is what is suggested.
I fully agree with that. I think we've always operated on the 2 theater doctrine.

I guess a 3 theater would be Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?
GAC06
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Except it's not, according to Gorbachev himself.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/


"To be be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

So Moscow was given assurances and NATO got them on a technicality.


No. They were not given assurances about expansion. Maybe just read.
OPAG
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Quote:

No. They were not given assurances about expansion. Maybe just read.
Technically yes, but in word, over and over again, yes they were given assurances. These were lies and deception from the beginning.

Even then the whole of the comment linked on X is spot on. It has been our foreign policy for the last 30 or so years. We are the only super power, we can do what every we want and if you don't like to bad.

We are not this 'virtuous force for good". And anyone who thinks that is totally got their head in the sand.

We have become very , the ends justifies they means'. we have launched 5 th generation warfare tactics on our own people. The simply minded, "Russia, Russia, Russia, neo cons just refuse to see it.
GAC06
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Gorbachev himself told you Putin's justification is a lie. Period.

Maybe focus on how you got so misled rather than trying to salvage the lie.
p_bubel
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OPAG said:

Quote:

No. They were not given assurances about expansion. Maybe just read.
Technically yes, but in word, over and over again, yes they were given assurances. These were lies and deception from the beginning.

Even then the whole of the comment linked on X is spot on. It has been our foreign policy for the last 30 or so years. We are the only super power, we can do what every we want and if you don't like to bad.

We are not this 'virtuous force for good". And anyone who thinks that is totally got their head in the sand.

We have become very , the ends justifies they means'. we have launched 5 th generation warfare tactics on our own people. The simply minded, "Russia, Russia, Russia, neo cons just refuse to see it.


"Technically yes."
Good grief. Give it up man.
OPAG
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Typical BS. trying to strain a gnat to play the gotcha card and totally ignore 98% of the truth.

Anyone who has followed this for more than few months knows what really happened here and has been building up for long time.

The truth is the neocons, Clinton's, Obama's, Bushes, Bidens are all on the same team. They really want a New World Order they have all said it repeatedly.

The US has been engaging through various agencies, a lot of nefarious stuff and they still are.

Russia truly did inquire about joining NATO themselves and that was soundly rebuffed by the Neocon/MIC and the deep state. This is truth.

But you go head and cling to your idea that we did not give any assurances to the Russians concerning an agressive expansion of Nato and strategic weapons that it represents on the Russian border.

So when China starts doing the same in Mexico, (they have already started) your good with it right?
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Except it's not, according to Gorbachev himself.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/


"To be be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

So Moscow was given assurances and NATO got them on a technicality.


No. They were not given assurances about expansion. Maybe just read.
nortex97
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This will further accelerate depopulation this winter as it will be largely unlivable. Summary of a video discussing the current situation/outlook is excellent.

Turkey joining BRICS will have a substantial impact on their alliance/reliability for logistics/nato/war against Russia.



From the sitrep yesterday evening (summarized here): the shrinking demographics/population well coming this winter will have a catastrophic impact, as mass resistance to forced conscription is breaking out throughout Kiev controlled cities:
Quote:

Ukraine may be just keeping up with their losses, according to Putin's numbers, but that would mean they are still effectively shrinking in comparison to Russia. That's because the Russian army is growing as they are recruiting a net positive amount of soldiers relative to their own losses. This can be easily corroborated by all the recent UA reports that Russia is stationing hundreds of thousands of new men in the north, not to mention the panicked NATO calls to send troops to free up any and all Ukrainians not on the frontline. Which, by the way: Ukraine's bayonet/combat to rear/non-combat troop ratio (tooth-to-tail ratio) is said to already be 50%, which is wildly anomalous. Modern militaries typically have a 10-30% combat troop ratio or so. It means Ukraine has already tapped a huge portion of its essential noncombat roles to the frontline. That being said, Ukraine is able to maintain such a crazy ratio due to NATO effectively acting as the AFU's rear "tail", particularly in the critical Polish rear logistics operation where the vast majority of Ukraine's supply pours through.

Ultimately, this means as the Russian army grows, the force parity will get increasingly worse for Ukraine as they are only able to equalize losses each month while the Russian Armed Forces accrue a major net positive.
To the last Ukrainian, forever war!
backintexas2013
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Biden meeting with Z today. Wonder how much more he is asking for and how much more we are going to give. Guessing this won't be the last time.

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