I think we all agree Xi Jinping doesn't give two whits about the Slavs being slaughtered on both sides. They see this as a clear win.
This is flat revisionist history. The reality is Russia is acting like a jilted girl friend.Quote:
Because they don't like us (and the west in general) and seek to harm us and our interests across the globe.
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However, I don't necessarily buy their numbers. It's known that they purposely put out disinformation.
GAC06 said:
And the master strategist Putin went along because reasons. I hope you're high.
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Whether you agree or not, the Nazi movement in the Ukraine is strong.
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2. Ukraine as a hub of bio weapons engineering is broken (US Special forces took care of that)
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True, and you think that we have not done the same? Do you really believe we are 'Good and virutous"? Do you think Ukraine is virtuous? Please. Are you for LGBPT ? (or whatever the hell they are using now) How about the occult? Are you for them too. How about Marina Abromovich? Are you fan of hers? How about Soros/Biden, are you there fan too?
Teslag said:
Hey look, we got biolabs. That's got to be a bingo for today right?Quote:
2. Ukraine as a hub of bio weapons engineering is broken (US Special forces took care of that)
NATO does not intend on inviting Ukraine to the NATO summit in July.
— ayden (@squatsons) May 24, 2024
You can fight for us but you aren’t one of us ❤️
Ok.nortex97 said:
Please don't quote a whole post, it makes the thread difficult to read (and I almost never edit a post unless an embed error etc). Just a request, thx.
What your analysis yet again misses is that the CCP is the proxy in charge here, on both sides, Xiden and Putin.
What they want, they get…for now.
The Lord is definitely Good. Please pull your head out of your back side and take a real breath.Quote:
Please take a breath and formulate a coherent argument. Good Lord.
The discussion of the overwhelming success on camera of the attack on an S400 battery is lengthy. I realize there are those celebrating/preening about that but I think this could be a quite pyrrhic moment.Quote:
Ukraine is now carrying out the slow de-arming and neutralization of Russia's nuclear triad on behalf of NATO, which is an extremely existentially dangerous position for Russia to be in. Thus, Russia is now within its doctrinal rights to respond with nuclear retaliatory forceand Ukraine is just beginning its escalations.
So this is the main reason we are now at a potential crossroads:
Ukraine is poised to potentially ***** Russia badly and now has the demonstrated capability to do so without Russia able to reliably neutralize the threats. If Ukraine gets the go ahead to use ATACMS and perhaps even the Storm Shadows, Taurus, etc., on Russian soilnot counting Crimea, which they've already done as they consider that not to be Russian territorythen all hell could break loose as Russia has not demonstrated the capability to stop the ATACMS reliably, and Ukraine could very well hit extremely sensitive targets that would put Russian command and control at a historic crossroads.
But why has Ukraine suddenly begun to demonstrate such an ability to hit important Russian objects? Answer: mostly because it has poured the remainder of its money toward asymmetric style warfare. You see, none of these attacks damage the real Russian army or change any of the calculus on the ground.
But given that Ukraine knows that nothing it can do will change that, it has wisely decided to pour the remainder of its resources into drones and long range weapons capable of at least shaking things up in very asymmetrical ways.
The goal is clear: Zelensky and co. likely want Russia to respond with tactical nukes. For Zelenskydictator of a country which has already brushed off the world's worst nuclear reactor disaster in Chernobyl, and which cheerily irradiates its own land with Western supplied depleted uranium shellsa small nuclear incident is the tiniest of possible prices to pay for his regime being saved by subsequent NATO intervention.
I really think it's interesting Russia is issuing Kharkov license plates, and hope the nuclear talk is just that. The ATACMS can work devastatingly well if fired in an overwhelming salvo clearly, but Ukraine also doesn't have an unlimited inventory. This whole war is a dangerous disaster.Quote:
Given all the above, we can extrapolate the following.
Russia continues conditioning the ground for Zelensky's illegitimacy. Lukashenko even said at today's talks that "a lot will happen this year….there are plenty of people in Ukraine both in military and government who would like to take the leadership position."
It's clear the hint is that Russia is preparing the ground for an amenable party to wrest control by way of military coup or otherwise and depose Zelensky. The Yanukovich ploy was very interesting and could merely be a sort of jest between Putin and Lukashenko, i.e. a calculated bit of stagecraft as a symbolic threat to Zelensky, as if to say: "See, we've got the guy you deposed right here and he's ready to take back his seat" merely as a sort of theatrical warning.
Apart from that, despite the glaring seriousness and danger of Zelensky's continued provocations, Russia stands to potentially create a catastrophic situation for the AFU in the near to medium term future with the introduction of new fronts, whether Sumy and/or Belarus. The Sumy rumors continue unabatedthe latest from Ukraine:Quote:
Meanwhile, the enemy continues to declare that our army continues to increase its grouping in the border area of Sumy and Chernigov regions.
The enemy expects active actions in this direction in the near future.
Russian offensive warning.
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) May 25, 2024
It occurred to me today that we're presently seeing an "operational convergence" suggesting the Russians are on the verge of launching a major operation in Ukraine. Let me weave together events of the last few days for you.
At the front things have… pic.twitter.com/UVMcLwIjz7
Well you are witnessing it now.
— Listening Post (@ListeningP0st) May 25, 2024
You see, I believe the chief reason they chose to clean house now, is that unlike 08, 14, 22 or 23, Kremlin now has a large pool of battle-tested, efficient and ambitious officers ready for higher command. pic.twitter.com/At0d2WinVH
Prime Minister Orban: Preparations Under Way in Brussels to Take Europe to War
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) May 24, 2024
- Hungary explores "how we can stay within the framework of NATO while not taking part in an action outside of a NATO member state"https://t.co/94ZSJGgiXe
Teslag said:
It's no longer 1943. Russia simply can't throw bodies and old rifles at the problem. Modern weapons have evened the playing field and the US and Europe have no issue throwing pennies at the problem while Russia struggles to keep up.
You can stay whatever you want, but Russia absolutely 100% didn't see themselves still stuck in this thing two years later.
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they have all the advantages in a war of attrition.
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Because they can throw bodies at it
Teslag said:Quote:
they have all the advantages in a war of attrition.
They don't. Which is why Putin is already capitulating and they've literally had to beg for weapons.Quote:
Because they can throw bodies at it
This doesn't work in 2024. And per the Reuters article yesterday even the Russians know they can't throw infinite bodies at the problem even if it did. Just like it didn't in Afghanistan.
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On the house cleaning timing: the existence of battle tested leadership now is one of the dimensions where the Russian military machine is much stronger than at the outset of the war.
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If Russia's intent is to hold on to what they have, then yes they absolutely can hold on. They have far more people than Ukraine does. Per geopolitical experts and former officials, Russia has this in the bag as far as not losing territory back to Ukraine.
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But why has Ukraine suddenly begun to demonstrate such an ability to hit important Russian objects? Answer: mostly because it has poured the remainder of its money toward asymmetric style warfare. You see, none of these attacks damage the real Russian army or change any of the calculus on the ground.
But given that Ukraine knows that nothing it can do will change that, it has wisely decided to pour the remainder of its resources into drones and long range weapons capable of at least shaking things up in very asymmetrical ways.
The goal is clear: Zelensky and co. likely want Russia to respond with tactical nukes. For Zelenskydictator of a country which has already brushed off the world's worst nuclear reactor disaster in Chernobyl, and which cheerily irradiates its own land with Western supplied depleted uranium shellsa small nuclear incident is the tiniest of possible prices to pay for his regime being saved by subsequent NATO intervention.
Reuters and Teslag "I told you so's" are what doesn't work. And no, Putin isn't capitulating, they are opening 1 or 2 more fronts (Kharkiv and Sumy) while continuing to ramp up weapons/materiel production. Your refusal to acknowledge these facts and make up your own world/lie about what you have read doesn't change any of that. He rebutted the peace along current lines propaganda the same day it came out, as well as pointing out Zelensky is now an illegitimate negotiating partner:Teslag said:Quote:
they have all the advantages in a war of attrition.
They don't. Which is why Putin is already capitulating and they've literally had to beg for weapons.Quote:
Because they can throw bodies at it
This doesn't work in 2024. And per the Reuters article yesterday even the Russians know they can't throw infinite bodies at the problem even if it did. Just like it didn't in Afghanistan.
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He further states above that any talks would have to be in accordance with "common sense". This is a very diplomatically 'soft' way of saying: any peace settlement must take into account not only all current battlefield realities, which in practical terms means the territories Russia has already captured must be retained, but also take into account Russia's interests, which primarily revolves around its chief aims of deNazification, demilitarization, neutrality, etc.
In essence, Putin is merely reaffirming that Russia will be open to talks with someone other than Zelensky, and as long as all of Russia's aims are fulfilled. This is obviously a long shot which allows Putin to retain the mien of peacemaker while still knowing that the conflict realistically will press on.
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Just the 79th brigade alone reports 20 KIA per day, with another 35 WIA. The 59th brigade reports "2-3 dozen" losses per day as they scream desperately for help.
Ukraine is said to have upwards of 100 brigades on the lines. Let's just say they are all suffering a similar 20-40 casualties per day rate, that's 100 x 30 median = 3000 per day. Let's say only about a third of those are KIA, we get 1000 KIA daily all across the front, which is actually precisely what Russian figures show. And this is 1000 x 30 = 30,000 KIA per month, which is exactly what Ukraine is said to be losing, while only mobilizing about 4-6k men per month.
The attacks on Russia's early warning radar site against nuclear weapons gives reason for concern about US intentions & it may compel Russia to put their strategic nuclear weapons on higher preparedness
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) May 25, 2024
https://t.co/WoXsmbbFQk
Teslag said:
5 day old BBC article
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn007p39zdzo.ampQuote:
After a high of 90% following the full-scale invasion, today around 65% of Ukrainians still trust President Zelensky to guide them through these times.
We can put this one to bed I think.
Of course, crickets from Biden administration on any of that. But, it's sort of like here, after all, where Trump also isn't allowed to travel or campaign freely.Quote:
Misuse of martial law
In power from 2014 to 2019 and now a member of parliament, Poroshenko even went so far as to send a letter, at the end of February, to the European commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, to contest the "misuse" of martial law and war with the aim, in his view, to "cleanse the political field from opposition and isolate it from international communication."
The former head of state, who maintains notoriously hostile relations with his successor, has himself not been allowed to leave the country on at least two occasions. The first time was in December 2023, when he was planning to travel to Poland and the United States. To justify the ban, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cited the risk of "instrumentalization by the Russians" of a supposed meeting between Poroshenko and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has been highly critical of Kyiv since the start of the war. The second time, in February 2024, he was unable to attend the Munich security conference.
So take any propagandized claims as to popularity with a grain of salt, just as we do with elections in North Korea, or Biden 2020, or 2024. This is a country after all, that has openly tortured and killed an American journalist, without any rights of free speech, travel, or religion.Quote:
Mykola Kniazhytskyi, another MP from Poroshenko's party, believes that the authorities are restricting travel because "they prefer that only pro-president parties talk to foreign politicians because they fear criticism from the opposition."
Kniazhytskyi is one of a handful of Ukrainian opposition MPs campaigning for the creation of a government of national unity, despite the fact that parliamentary and presidential elections have been cancelled due to martial law. However, such initiatives have met with little response from the population, who still firmly support Zelensky despite a decline in his popularity, affected by the long duration of the war.