Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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YouBet
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In reply to Teslag • 10:36a, 3/16/24
AG
Teslag said:
This one?

Quote:
A draft peace treaty drawn up by Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in April 2022, about six weeks after the start of the war, lays bare the sort of deal Putin was after at the time. Western officials and analysts say the Kremlin clings to its original objectives after two years of fighting: Turn Ukraine into a neutered state permanently vulnerable to Russian military aggression.


https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093#
No, I've read that one. The one I'm talking about was written well over a year ago. Maybe even two years. I thought I had saved it but apparently I didn't.
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 11:38a, 3/16/24
AG
YouBet said:
Teslag said:
This one?

Quote:
A draft peace treaty drawn up by Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in April 2022, about six weeks after the start of the war, lays bare the sort of deal Putin was after at the time. Western officials and analysts say the Kremlin clings to its original objectives after two years of fighting: Turn Ukraine into a neutered state permanently vulnerable to Russian military aggression.


https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093#
No, I've read that one. The one I'm talking about was written well over a year ago. Maybe even two years. I thought I had saved it but apparently I didn't.
The people you are responding to know all this, it's just trying to drown out the information by repetition of questions and pedantic answers/responses/demands you meet their personal F16 rules of evidence standards as guardians of the Zelensky-Nuland narrative. Bennett admitted to it before being told 'no, let's say the Bucha stuff is what ended it.' The terms/orally agreed outline are precisely why the Russians withdrew from the airport held by air assault forces around Kiev in 2022. And the betrayal/Nuland groups goes back to Minsk I and II with respect to groups within the former Ukraine.

Now, if Poland and other worried Nato countries want Russia to abide by treaties, and return to the conventional armed forces in Europe one, they should agree to stop supplying the Kiev regime with weapons and to end Nato expansion.
Quote:
Nato allies have condemned a decision by Russia to withdraw from a key cold war-era security treaty (see earlier post at 08.22), saying they now intend to suspend its operation for "as long as necessary".

Most of Nato's 31 allies have signed the treaty of conventional armed forces in Europe, which was aimed at preventing cold war rivals from massing forces at or near mutual borders.

It was signed in November 1990, but not fully ratified until two years later.

In a statement, Nato said:
Quote:
Allies condemn Russia's decision to withdraw from the treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe (CFE), and its war of aggression against Ukraine which is contrary to the treaty's objectives.

Russia's withdrawal is the latest in a series of actions that systematically undermines Euro-Atlantic security.

Therefore, as a consequence, allied states parties intend to suspend the operation of the CFE Treaty for as long as necessary, in accordance with their rights under international law.
This is a decision fully supported by all Nato allies.
Russia's foreign ministry announced earlier on Tuesday that Moscow had finalized its withdrawal.
Russia said the US push for enlargement of Nato had led to alliance countries "openly circumventing" the treaty's group restrictions, and added that the admission of Finland into Nato and Sweden's application meant the treaty was dead.
All of this escalatory rhetoric and expansion, since duping the Russians to stop at the point where the SMO (with less than half the forces in theatre today, and even then including Wagner/conscript groups) reached the outskirts of Kiev, has been entirely counter-productive to Europe, at least economically and politically to the WEF types running the place today.

Faux strength via the accession of Sweden/finland into the treaty organization didn't change a single thing in reality.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:44a, 3/16/24
AG
Always read a Nortex link

From his link…

Quote:
Former Israeli prime minister rebuts claim, boosted by Russia, that the US blocked a Ukraine peace agreement: 'It's unsure there was any deal to be made'



The US never ended a deal. It didn't happen. Only the Russians put this forward.
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Teslag
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11:46a, 3/16/24
AG
Quote:
The terms/orally agreed outline are precisely why the Russians withdrew from the airport held by air assault forces around Kiev in 2022


"Withdraw" is one way to describe getting your **** pushed in. Good lord.

This is easily my new favorite narrative. It's a complete home run of historical revision.
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nortex97
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In reply to Teslag • 5:30p, 3/16/24
AG
Teslag said:
Quote:
The terms/orally agreed outline are precisely why the Russians withdrew from the airport held by air assault forces around Kiev in 2022


"Withdraw" is one way to describe getting your **** pushed in. Good lord.

This is easily my new favorite narrative. It's a complete home run of historical revision.
Here is a note on all of the accurate notes/links/analyses you have posted on any thread about the Biden: Ukraine proxy war.

/

The Snopes of non-Ukrainian propaganda.

Anyway, more noticing the brutal subjugation of young and old men alike in the bloodthirst driven Kiev-Nuland regime;



They are probably using some 'Muh, Russia' group's twitter handle's 8 dollar payment to go after Musk on this;



We need to stop providing foreign aid to more countries than just Ukraine though;




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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:34p, 3/16/24
AG
How are we going to afford 6 billion to replenish our military after aid to Ukraine?

That's almost 75% of 1% of one year's DoD budget
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nortex97
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In reply to GAC06 • 5:32a, 3/17/24
AG
That's a lot to borrow to make Putin and Xi stronger, while getting nearly a million slaughtered.



Again, Macron made those statements to try to rally globalist/left EC parliament voters, not really the French, let alone to 'scare Putin.' But hey, I guess they must have some 'really effective' troops to deploy, such as those who had to surrender their long term operations in Niger, who oh by the way are also kicking the US out:



Italians need to be careful.



But again, helping/funding BRICS/Iran etc. are part of Biden administration policy;





If the people are doomed, PR videos, propaganda, and graft aside, why…send money to their totalitarian overlords to get more killed, anyway?








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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:58a, 3/17/24
AG
Quote:
That's a lot to borrow to make Putin and Xi stronger, while getting nearly a million slaughtered.


No it's not. No it isn't. People are dying because Putin ordered the invasion, and is still pushing for more. You literally just posted that he isn't interested in negotiating.

But I guess just keep doubling down on the same tired talking points after getting pummeled.
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nortex97
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8:22a, 3/17/24
AG
Team Biden continues to abandon/denigrate this Nato ally;

Quote:
A keynote speech by the US ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, sounded more like a "leftist activist" talk than a statement "worthy of an ambassador,"State Secretary at Budapest's foreign ministry Tamas Menczer has said.

Pressman delivered the controversial speech on Thursday at the Central European University (CEU) in the capital at an event to mark the 25th anniversary of Hungary's accession to the US-led NATO bloc.

The envoy gave a long list of grievances plaguing ties between Washington and Budapest, ranging from Hungary's stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict to its refusal to allow US troops stationed in the country to get local license plates for their family vehicles.

Budapest is now finding itself "increasingly isolated" from the NATO "community of democracies," the ambassador claimed, insisting that links between the two countries should not depend on their "temporary"leaders.

"We should be mutually concerned for the well-being of democratic values, institutions, and of our relationship regardless of who has the privilege of temporarily leading either of our governments," the envoy stated.

Pressman also took personal jabs at Prime Minister Viktor Orban, criticizing him for viewing the US as Hungary's "adversary," as well as accusing the country's government of interfering "in a very blatant way" in the internal affairs of others, "all while decrying foreign interference here at home."

"PM Orban, who on the one hand baselessly claims the US government is trying to overthrow his government, publicly calls for the political defeat of the President of the United States and actively participates in US partisan political events," Pressman stated.

The envoy also appeared to issue a thinly-veiled threat aimed at the Orban government, stating that while it "may want to wait out the United States government, the United States will certainly not wait out the Orban administration."

"While Hungary waits, we will act," Pressman warned.

The speech was poorly received in Budapest, with Foreign Ministry State Secretary Menczer taking to Facebook to criticize the American envoy, suggesting his hostile remarks were not appropriate for his role at all, as international relations should actually be based on "mutual respect."

"Hungary has always had great respect for the United States, and it always will. However, today's speech was not a speech worthy of an ambassador, but rather a speech by a leftist political activist," Menczer wrote.

Pressman has been US ambassador to Hungary since late 2022, repeatedly finding himself at odds with the local government and making harsh statements about its policies. In January, for instance, he accused Budapest of harming the entire NATO bloc while helping Moscow with its actions.
No wonder Nuland is over their spreading political poison in Italy; she must be assigned to getting them in line.
Quote:
Deploying troops of the US-led NATO bloc to battlefields in Ukraine might result in an all-out global conflict, effectively a Third World War, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has said. He has ruled out any possibility that his country's forces will somehow end up deployed to support Kiev's fight.

The minister made the remarks on Friday during an interview on the sidelines of the LetExpo show in Verona. Asked about the prospect of NATO troops ending up in such a deployment, Tajani spoke out against the idea.

"I think that NATO shouldn't enter Ukraine. It would be a mistake. We need to help Ukraine defend itself, but entering the country to wage war against Russia means risking World War Three," the diplomat stated.
Tajani ruled out any possibility of Italy's own troops ending up in Ukraine. Asked about other NATO nations sending their troops to prop up Kiev in its fight against Moscow, particularly France, the minister said he hoped "it doesn't happen."
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PlaneCrashGuy
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8:52a, 3/17/24
AG
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YouBet
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:12a, 3/17/24
AG
Quote:
"PM Orban, who on the one hand baselessly claims the US government is trying to overthrow his government, publicly calls for the political defeat of the President of the United States and actively participates in US partisan political events," Pressman stated.
You mean just like how Biden and his administration are now giving Bibi red lines and Schumer is public giving speeches about how he shouldn't be leading Israel anymore...and then Biden publicly supports Schumer's speech?

Hypocrites much?
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PlaneCrashGuy
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3:35p, 3/17/24
AG
Speaking of, has there been any movement on the aid package?
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 5:54p, 3/17/24
AG
Moar aid needed;





On the Macron farce;







Oh saint Zelensky, I don't think anyone takes you seriously any longer.


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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:09p, 3/17/24
AG
88% of the vote is impressive, but scoring 10 goals despite little experience against former NHL all stars is even more impressive.

https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2019/may/10/vladimir-putin-hockey-fall-hockey-exhibition

Both feats are totally legit and impressive
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:21p, 3/17/24
Lol - you know Russian propaganda is getting desperate when they're trying to link some random MP allegedly buying a new car with US aid.

Dude seems like he's been pretty rich for a long time, which these twitter accounts obviously already know but don't want to share since that would hurt the narrative.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hennadii_Vatsak

Quote:
Automobiles
edit
In 2008 he owned a Hummer car, which he sold in 2013. Then he started driving a BMW X6 in 2009.[10] Then he changed his car from a BMW X6 to a Maserati Quattroporte Q4 and a Jaguar F-Type.[11]

Charity
edit
In 2016, he opened a children's chess school "Vatsak" in Mohyliv-Podilskyi.[12] Supported by the sports club "Spartak-Vatsak", the club won the Vinnytsia Kickboxing Cup in 2016. He built a 40-meter fountain on Shana Square in Mogilev-Podolsky.

In 2013 he won the nomination "Philanthropist: small business (including individuals - entrepreneurs)" of the National Competition "Charitable Ukraine - 2013".[13]
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PlaneCrashGuy
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7:24p, 3/17/24
AG
Anyone wanna have a go?
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John Armfield
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 7:30p, 3/17/24
PlaneCrashGuy said:
Anyone wanna have a go?
cross dresser might lose that would be my guess. He also clamps down on the on any dissenting press.

Such a great guy and great country
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YouBet
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7:31p, 3/17/24
AG
How could you trust anyone named ****sky? Advantage Putin.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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7:37p, 3/17/24
AG
The army with no ability to mount an offensive might take half of Poland if Spain doesn't intervene on the ground.

Uke's are so busy peddling propaganda they forgot to get their stories straight.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:30p, 3/17/24
AG
nortex97 said:
GAC06 said:
It seems like a certain perspective was really twisted up about the idea Ukraine was fighting Russia mostly with hand me down crap when they wanted to claim NATO was exhausting their modern weapons. Now they're twisted that they're being given…. old hand me down weapons?
Since you're replying to me I think you are snarking about me being twisted up about…stuff. I do recall being repeatedly corrected that we were just giving them old/surplus stuff, and just yesterday or the day before that Europe didn't need to ramp up so much because of the modern tech weapons which don't need as much artillery shells etc.

But, apparently we need to replenish our stocks with top notch stuff and also Europe is donating 80 year old artillery systems. The hypocrisy of the claims made is my point. I don't care that Greece is shipping Ukraine some 1942 light artillery systems.


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GAC06
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 9:36p, 3/17/24
AG
Export variant Abrams matter how?

Surprised you haven't vanished like a fart in the wind after the embarrassment you suffered.
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nortex97
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5:05a, 3/18/24
AG


…

Quote:
The prewar Russian Army (including the Ground Forces, VDV and Spetznaz) fielded some 360,000 personnel, with about 100,000 of them conscripts barred from combat in Ukraine but deployable in prewar Russia. LDPR forces added some 34,000 troops to that, and I estimate there were approximately 100,000 Rosgvardiya internal troops who could also be deployed in combat roles (Chechen troops are Rosgvardiya, for instance). I'll round this to a 500,000-man total force. Obviously not all of these available troops went into Ukraine.

Russian force strength seems to have remained largely static until September 2022, when the Russians made what is in retrospect an obvious decision to dig in for a long war against an enemy that was by that point turning into little more than a boxing glove for NATO. Mobilization followed as well as formalization of recruitment for wartime volunteers (who had previously served under very loose rules). Some 300,000 reservists were mobilized immediately and volunteer recruitment increased to around 30,000 new soldiers inducted monthly.

This is, however, a war. Although modest in comparison to Ukrainian losses, Russian casualties have been quite heavy - taking Mediazona as a yardstick we can expect approximately 50,000 Russian KIA by this point and another 50,000 Russian soldiers invalidated by serious wounds.

So let's do some math.

We're looking at a 500,000-man prewar force, plus 300,000 reservists, plus 540,000 volunteers (18 months at 30,000/month), minus 100,000 casualties, for a total army of 1.24 million men.

* I'm rolling "wartime" Wagner contractors into the volunteer bucket as they now work for the MoD. Their prewar cadre has been excluded entirely as it's now in exile in Belarus following Prigozhin's failed putsch. I'm also not attempting to differentiate between volunteerism for the Ground Forces versus Rosgvardiya etc.

Now let's allocate forces. 100,000 conscripts will need to be pulled off the line immediately, and it's reasonable to think that another 140,000 regulars will need to supervise them. This is some 240,000 troops - almost equal in size to Russia's prewar army - who can be deployed for to fill the prewar army's security missions as well as train new volunteers, etc. This leaves a million men to deal with Ukraine - considerably more, by the way, than even the most aggressive estimates of Russian force strength actually in theater, suggesting most of these troops are on standby in the deep rear. This is also much higher than any serious estimate of Ukrainian force strength at this point, most of which range from 400-600,000.

This large figure is supported by secondary evidence such as Western outlets reporting that the Russians are maintaining rotations for their (large) force in theater and the obviously formidable forces now available for deployment on the prewar Russian border, which easily defeated a brigade-size Ukrainian attack last week.

The Russians overprepared to defeat the Ukrainian 2023 offensive. I very strongly suspect they've overprepared for their own attack this year - and that they intend that blow to be so heavy as to foreclose intervention by NATO forces. But more on that later.








Forever war, comrades!
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PlaneCrashGuy
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12:50p, 3/18/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 1:01p, 3/18/24
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:
It's been longer than that since we had a border that was enforced.
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nortex97
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4:59a, 3/19/24
AG
Quote:
Russian forces have struck a location where Ukrainian security and defense commanders were holding a meeting, the Defense Ministry claimed on Monday.

The attack was mentioned in passing in the ministry's daily briefing to the press. It said military commanders and their counterparts from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) were present. The meeting was mentioned among targets chosen for Russian warplanes, missile strikes and artillery in the past 24 hours.

No additional details about the purported strike were immediately available from either side of the armed conflict.

SBU agents play a crucial part in launching drone attacks against Russia, according to Ukrainian media and some official statements made by agency officials. A drone attack on an oil refinery in Krasnodar Region on Sunday morning was attributed to its operatives, as a recent example. The raid caused a fire and reportedly caused one of the employees to die from a heart attack.

Following the 2014 armed coup in Kiev, the SBU and its military counterpart, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) were reformed by the CIA to serve the goals of Washington's hybrid conflict with Russia, according to reports in the US press. Ukrainians with Western training also staged targeted assassinations of officials in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics prior to their accession to the Russian Federation.

Drone operations and other forms of sabotage were reportedly incorporated into the SBU's operations against Russia after open hostilities between the two nations erupted in February 2022.
Updates:









Obviously we need to ship the poor Ukrainians more artillery shells to use against…civilians.







I see Obama visited Sunak at 10 Downing Street as conscription has come up within the UK, just 'coincidentally' as Biden's proxy war staggers into more defeat;



Forever war, comrades!
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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:41a, 3/19/24
AG
Sorry for going dark there, campout with the kiddo this weekend....

My main question is two fold. First, why the veiled sense of satisfaction over the prospect of Ukraine losing? That seems odd from an emotional sense as an American. Second, I get you may not agree with the war, but I just can't grasp why anyone would want them to lose and see that as anything but a significant strategic setback for the West.

The Ukrainians are a pawn in the sense they are a geographical buffer zone, there's no debate there. I get hating that it's the case and wanting it to end. Losing ground and negotiating a stalemate just invites future conflict. The Russians have have made it pretty clear that their ambitions reach to Moldova and likely beyond. If 2008, 2014, 2018 and 2022's incursions along Russia's border territories are any indication for the future, they'll keep going until they are defeated. That means more leveled cities, more displaced people, and more mine-laden territory to reconstruct.

I guess the long/short of it is that I don't see this cycle stopping until:

1) The Russians are comprehensively pushed back by one of these independent states.
2) WW3 starts and East or West unconditionally surrenders.

We can start there.
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Aggie1205
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:50a, 3/19/24
AG
Are you a George Galloway fan?
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nortex97
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In reply to Aggie1205 • 8:52a, 3/19/24
AG
Aggie1205 said:
Are you a George Galloway fan?
LOL, no. I am also not really by any means an expert on Brit politics, but it is interesting to me in that there is a lot of anger from all sides toward various factions right now. I respect that he does have a substantial following, though.
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nortex97
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 9:04a, 3/19/24
AG
Quote:
My main question is two fold. First, why the veiled sense of satisfaction over the prospect of Ukraine losing? That seems odd from an emotional sense as an American. Second, I get you may not agree with the war, but I just can't grasp why anyone would want them to lose and see that as anything but a significant strategic setback for the West.


The Ukrainians are a pawn in the sense they are a geographical buffer zone, there's no debate there. I get hating that it's the case and wanting it to end. Losing ground and negotiating a stalemate just invites future conflict. The Russians have have made it pretty clear that their ambitions reach to Moldova and likely beyond. If 2008, 2014, 2018 and 2022's incursions along Russia's border territories are any indication for the future, they'll keep going until they are defeated. That means more leveled cities, more displaced people, and more mine-laden territory to reconstruct.
First, the Ukrainians are the side that our ruling class wants to use to loot our treasury further, enriching the folks like Blackrock at our expense. They are equally complicit in the war as Joe Biden and Vlad Putin are, and absolutely as corrupt as well, though I don't think Biden has ever ordered the shelling of civilians. Russia winning ultimately would save us money, and lower the risk that Ukraine with a CIA-sponsored government (Nuland style) will lead to a nuclear/broader war.

Second, the Russian incursions as you laid out are not indicia of anything portentious toward central Europe/Poland/Hungary etc., but part of a trend of the corrupt, violent nature of Ukraine expecially since 2014's Nuland "**** the EU" coup. 2008 would warrant a separate discussion/links, sorry, no time right now.

Third, more leveled cities sounds like a problem but the goal would be stability ultimately. The Russians clearly want to rebuild the areas/cities/towns they take, and if they fund it (or BRICS) that is a win, to me. Ukraine has just this weekend declared that they will not extend/negotiate past Dec 31 gas transmission agreements with Gazprom so in order to support Europe from a certain economic collapse it would be best if Russia operates those transmission lines directly (this firstly impacts Hungary/Germany but the entirety of the eurozone in truth).

Quote:
I guess the long/short of it is that I don't see this cycle stopping until:

1) The Russians are comprehensively pushed back by one of these independent states.
2) WW3 starts and East or West unconditionally surrenders.
I would suggest you listen to the Tucker interview with Putin. You may see an inexorable Russian offensive into the fulda gap after taking Ukraine but I don't. The "west" broadly is not served by this war, but rather the BRICS countries are profiting and becoming stronger. If the CIA/State stop trying to incite coups in countries that border Russia and putting in place puppet states I think a stasis can and will be re-established.

By any metric the mullahs, CCP, and Russian billionaires are much more wealthy today than in early 2022, while "western" economies are functionally in recession/facing massive inflation (greater than Carter era). This is not obviated or even ameliorated by arguments such as "well, Europe is trying to spend more on defense now, and 400K Russians are dead."

Finally, if the real goal is to take down/handicap/hurt Putin and Xi, it's illogical to support a commander in chief's attempts toward that when he is (a) on their payroll as a long time business partner, (b) demented, and (c) incompetent at very best, while this war has already demographically devastated the 'nominal' "good guys" as many see it.
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LMCane
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9:21a, 3/19/24
Favorite Trump Hero Lindsay Graham meeting Zelensky in Kyiv today

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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:42p, 3/19/24
AG
First Blurb:

I don't buy in to the "ruling class" conspiracy theory. I love Metal Gear Solid and Assassins Creed as much as anyone, but I don't let the conspiracy of a cabal of global elites controlling America/the world influence my decision making. It's just too out there and in the unlikely event it were in fact true, that cabal failing would likely end in peril/destruction for my family, so I'd unfortunately be tied to them as a necessity of survival so it's kind of a non-starter anyways.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure I get the Russian's motivation. Could we get out of the way because it's 5000 miles away? Sure. In the short term it may avoid conflict, but in the long term it inevitably leads to our enemies engaging us on a much more even playing field. That, I don't have any interest in seeing and if the "all-knowing cabal" and I are aligned there so be it.

Second Blurb:

I watched the interview and thought Tucker did a terrible job. Now, I get he was probably worried that if he pushed too hard he'd fall out of a window so it's hard to blame him for playing so soft. Putin's rambling about Russian history, societal demise, and so on to me had two objectives. First, he was speaking to his people and rallying them around their historical claims to Eastern Europe. Second, to further the divide in western society. The first he did very well at, the second was a moderate success at best.

Again, short-term vs. long-term. COVID stimulus did way more for the rich and was way worse a fiscal policy abomination than Ukraine aid has been. That is what caused inflation. We gave the economy a sugar rush and all of that money ended up in the hands of the wealthy. The PPP program was a joke and padded rich people's pockets. That combined with the lock down killed small businesses and empowered the mega corporations that could operate around it. That's a topic for another day.

In terms of the war and it's effect on West v. Russian economies time will show that as we recover from our poor fiscal policies in COVID we will continue to rebound as this fiscal cycle continues. Russia on the other hand is not having some sort of economic renaissance. It's just not. It's still a kleptocracy that is becoming more and more dependent on raw material exports and war to fuel the economy.

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TRADUCTOR
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2:06p, 3/19/24
nortex97
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 2:44p, 3/19/24
AG
I don't play video games, so I don't get the reference.

If you think the Democrats/rhino's and swamp (CIA/State) running our foreign policy are reactive/responsive to the American people's foreign policy goals/objectives, you are just wrong, imho. I could re-document the Nuland/State roles in the Maiden revolution but I don't think that's necessary as I've already done so probably two dozen times on this thread. The point is, we brought the puppet state and prospect of having it swiftly join Nato to Russia's doorstep, where they saw a buffer zone. Again, that may not be a popular reading of the history but it is right, imho.

And it's a brutal regime, raft with corruption that suppresses dissent/media, kills journalists, shells minority areas etc. These aren't debatable points, imho. I suppose whether it is worth sustaining vs. Russian occupation could be, but we really aren't opening on a similar understanding of the conflict if you just want to rail against Putin as the sole bad actor/land grab/threat to Poland/Hungary etc.

Back to your point, Russia winning would at least eliminate a liability for broader war/nuclear conflict, and a dependency on our tax dollars long term (in the trillions). And if joining nato is supposed to be the lynchpin to safety from the Russian bear, then the next neighbors are already in, ipso facto problem solved. Most seem to be skeptical the Russians can even take Odessa etc., so I am not sure why we need to worry about it though.
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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:21p, 3/19/24
AG
I feel like we've made a little progress here.

NATO did expand, which we agree on, is positive. Without the war that likely doesn't happen.

Europe increasing defense spending is good. Without the war that doesn't happen. We agree on that.

Your thoughts on the Ukranian political happenings is your opinion and relies on a lot of assumptions concerning mysterious actors' motivations. We agree there.

Ukraine under Russian control is going to be just as corrupt and kleptocratic as it might have been prior to the invasion. Based on your articles on oligarchs buying billion-dollar factories for $111, we agree on that.

I'm not railing on Putin, he's just the(an) antagonist of this story. I think we agree on that. He's a cold, calculated and cunning person bent on restoring the Soviet Union to it's former glory. (I just don't want to see that happen or further his delusion that it's possible.)



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nortex97
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 5:06p, 3/19/24
AG
Ok, but I am not so sure NATO's expansion is a positive thing, now or in/over the 30+ years since the Cold War ended.

Sure, Poland/East Germany/Czech's made some sense (just simplifying the history), but I don't think the Baltic country's additions, let alone Finland/Sweden etc. have added to real unity long term. If anything, the push for an "EU army" and more militant/stronger central government in Europe will lead inexorably to more of the cycles of schisms/strife that plagued the continent for centuries of tribal/kingdom/nation state wars. An expansive EU/Nato 'poking' at Russia certainly isn't good, and is part of what led to things like the Crimean War, WW1 ('some damn thing in the Balkans'…Slavic stuff), Soviet revolution, and later Soviet agreements with Hitler/partitioning of Poland etc.

In other words, 'hegemonic expansionism' is probably a bad thing, no matter who the party in question is. While it's natural to see 'our' side as the good one of course, it rarely works out real well long term. Nato has matured to the point where ideally I believe the US should exit the treaty and allow Europe to stand tall on their own, or continue to demographically shrivel and embrace socialist social programs, either way. Coddling them, or otherwise interfering in their politics is not in my (or my kids) best interests.

And again, right, wrong or indifferent, Russia is a corrupt state just like Ukraine functionally controlled by their very rich (oligarchs). It has a strong historical/cultural tie to most of Ukraine (definitely the parts they now control) and reasons going back centuries for wanting to make sure it does not become controlled by the Brits/French (and now us), and thanks to this proxy war, a much larger military/ramped up military production of war materiels, and experienced small and large unit leadership with everything from stand off weapons to artillery/armor/aviation.

The winners in this are Putin and his wealthy friends, as well as China. The losers are the remnant of Ukrainians of younger/working year age groups, and working class Europeans facing the Bidenflation on steroids there for energy etc.

Finally, just as a last point I'd note that the other options for Russian leadership were Putin to wake up tomorrow and decide to retire/jump out a window, would be…much, much more bellicose in all likelihood. A 'win' for Putin enabling him to remain their leader is not…the worst thing for our (actual) interests.
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