I'm going to briefly just respond to these 3 initial points;
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1) Understand where we are. There is a war in Europe and the clock can't be turned back to avoid it.
2) How this war ends sets the stage for the future. If this war ends unfavorably for us and our allies, we move forward into the future at a disadvantage when future conflicts arise. It doesn't matter your opinion of Ukraine, from a purely utilitarian state of mind they are a buffer state between geographically defensible points and the first line of contact. Geography defines that and history dictates this won't be the last time. The Poles know that all too well.
3) Abandoning Europe and losing your closest allies is a terrible idea. This conflict has gotten them to invest in their own defense which is immediately positive for us. It has firmed up our alliance in an environment where our adversaries were already tightly aligned. This conflict if properly managed will cause our enemies to lose any strategic societal/political advantage they may have had and most importantly galvanize our alliances against the oscillations of their political ideology as youths that only have known peace reach voting age.
There is a war in Europe, correct, right in Russia's back yard. It was provoked by a rush to push our proxy government installed in 2014 into Nato promptly, provoking the invasion, which is frankly not deniable as a matter of factual history.
Russia now, accepting the invasion/reality happened, cannot cede control of those parts it has conquered nor will they give up their critical need to have a port (Sevastopol).
It's debatable how the war can end. I believe, at this point, they will try to at least take Odessa first. This will make any remnant of Ukraine land-locked, but that is not a real big deal as long as exports/trade are facilitated.
From a utilitarian point of view, Ukraine as a buffer for Russia would then be great for us, as it would de-escalate the situation. I think actual elections should be required for whatever is left of Ukraine moving forward, and a covenant we won't push/allow them into Nato. Then, Russia can feel secure again. They aren't going to invade Hungary/Poland etc., that is just crazy talk. I don't care about their need for a buffer, but I do feel complicity in the slaughter of hundreds of thousands in this proxy war.
Talk of "abandoning" Europe is fascinating as though we have an eternal obligation to support them on the basis of WW2 militarily. This war has functionally devastated their economies via energy inflation (and the US played a key role again, including the Nordstream sabotage no one is allowed to conclude a public investigation into) among other impacts (including refugees).
If the US wants to play some sort of hegemonic role internationally it would do itself a favor to return to an investment strategy instead of a coup and war-based one as in Libya, Iraq, much of Africa and Ukraine, imho. The current CIA and State efforts have been horribly unsuccessful at long term furthering American interests.
Our largest actual enemy globally is in many ways a practitioner of influence and trade manipulation/strategic growth in a much more amicable and successful way;
But make no mistake, they are our actual enemy, and I think the Biden familia among many other politicians (mostly but not all Democrats) have been on their payroll/compromised for a long time too. Our southern border, fentanyl war (a revenge for the opium wars largely), and a ton of other impacts in the US are consequential to their control of our own government functions. Everything we are doing in Ukraine and to Europe there is contra our ability to counter China, near and long term. Meanwhile;
Meanwhile, oh by the way, the war is a horrible failure tactically/strategically for the poor Ukrainians who have to stage PR ops to keep some interest/cheerleading for their cause going;
It's a false dichotomy/connection to claim we have to support Ukraine so that…the Europeans keep investing more in their own defenses. And frankly, our history of abandoning one-time allies is pretty lengthy now, that's not going to change regardless of how/when Zelensky is discarded. He/Kiev is a horrible/corrupt regime elected on false pretenses that also morally deserves to fall. I don't say that out of hatred just from observing their lies/treatment of their people (and our dollars) over the past few years. We can support the Baltic countries and Hungary/Poland/Czech's better without the absurd waste going on and thru Kiev.
And again, from a pragmatic perspective Biden's war has been one big backfire; when something is an utter failure, it's best to stop doing it.
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BIDEN'S BIG BACKFIRE
Last week I gave a talk at the American Moment conference in D.C. in which I compared Biden's claims at the beginning of the Ukraine War to how it has actually turned out.
I explained how Biden's policy has backfired in 4 key areas:
1) ECONOMIC
At the beginning of the war, Biden claimed that sanctions would "crush" the Russian economy, forcing Russia out of the war and perhaps even precipitating regime change.
In fact, the dislocation to Russia's economy was short-lived. By 2023, the Russian economy was outperforming the G7. Meanwhile, the real victim of sanctions was Europe, especially the German economy, which relied on cheap Russian gas to power its exports. As a result, the war is destabilizing governments throughout Europe just not Putin's.
Instead of hurting the Russian economy, Biden's economic war has hurt our European allies. This is the first big backfire.
2) MILITARY
At the outset of the war, the Biden administration declared that its objective was to "weaken" Russia militarily so it couldn't wage regional war again.
The media breathlessly amplified claims of Russian weakness and impending collapse, only to discover the reality of massive Russian industrial war production. Russian factories and forges are now ramped up and producing more artillery shells, drones, tanks, and other weapons of war.
In fact, it's the West that can't keep up, with its atrophied defense industrial base. America's own stockpiles, most notably of artillery shells and air defense, have been depleted much faster than war planners anticipated.
The size of the Russian military has grown too, thanks to large numbers of enlistments and a casualty rate that's decreasing over time. The Russian army has become more battle-tested and battle-hardened, learning how to defeat western weapons.
Biden's proxy war was supposed to weaken Russia's military but instead has made it stronger and more formidable, while depleting America's own stockpiles. This is the second big backfire.
3) DIPLOMATIC / GEOPOLITICAL
At the outset, Biden claimed that the war would show Western unity, resolve and leadership while isolating Putin.
In fact, the rest of the world has not come along for the ride. The BRICS countries and much of the Global South reject the U.S. view of the war and refuse to sanction or condemn Russia. On a recent visit to the Middle East, Putin was greeted like a conquering hero in UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Sanctions have only made BRICS more popular; it has added 5 new members, with a long wait list of countries seeking to join. These countries see BRICS as a defender of their economic sovereignty and a potential shield against a trigger-happy U.S. sanctions regime.
Even liberal interventionists are now starting to notice. Fiona Hill declared that Pax Americana is over. And EU foreign minister Josep Borrell declared that the era of Western dominance has definitively ended.
Rather than strengthening U.S. global leadership, the war has catalyzed resistance to it. This is Biden's third big backfire.
4) HUMANITARIAN
At the outset of the war, Biden claimed that his policy would "aid the Ukrainian people" and "help ease their suffering."
But Ukraine has suffered a vast number of casualties, and its population has further declined greatly as a result of refugees (mainly women and children) fleeing the country. According to UN/World Bank, the population of Ukraine-controlled territory has decreased from 44 million to 28 million. Over 10 million of the remainder are reported to be pensioners. This is a recipe for demographic collapse.
So instead of helping Ukraine, Biden's proxy war policy has likely doomed it. This is backfire number four.
For more detail and all the receipts on Biden's Big Backfire, check out the full speech from American Moment below.
War, which is government sanctioned mass murder at scale, especially a proxy one, should not be furthered/extended just out of a sense of inertia or hope, but studied, considered, and only supported if compelling, urgent interests and goals are in fact being won. This fails on every metric conceivable for American aid to Ukraine in their war with Russia, imho.
Forever war!
