Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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nortex97
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Interesting to see Ted Carpenter's excellent 2022 piece referenced;

Quote:

Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a fullscale invasion of Ukraine is a monstrous act of aggression that has plunged the world into a perilous situation. By any reasonable standard, his move was an overthetop response to any Ukrainian or NATO provocations. However, that conclusion is different from saying that there were no provocations, as far too many policymakers and pundits in the West are doing now.

It has become especially fashionable in such circles to insist that NATO's expansion to Russia's border was in no way responsible for the current Ukraine crisis. Many dismiss all arguments to the contrary as "echoing Putin's talking points," "siding with Putin," or circulating Russian propaganda and "disinformation." Leaving aside the ugly miasma of McCarthyism enveloping such allegations, the underlying argument is factually wrong.

Russian leaders and several Western policy experts were warning more than two decades ago that NATO expansion would turn out badlyending in a new cold war with Russia at best, and a hot one at worst. Obviously, they were not "echoing" Putin or anyone else. George Kennan, the intellectual architect of America's containment policy during the Cold War, perceptively warned in a May 2, 1998 New York Times interview what NATO's move eastward would set in motion. "I think it is the beginning of a new cold war," he stated. "I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake."

U.S. and European officials blew through one red light after another.

Kennan was speaking of the first round of enlargement that brought into the Alliance Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Later rounds, which added the Baltic Republics and other East European countries, were considerably more abrasive, and Washington's subsequent attempt to make Ukraine and Georgia members was contemptuous of Russia's core security interests. Moscow's complaints and warnings were becoming increasingly sharp as well.

Yet U.S. and European officials blew through one red light after another. George W. Bush began to treat Georgia and Ukraine as valued U.S. political and military allies, and in 2008, he pressed NATO to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members. French and German wariness delayed that endeavor, but the NATO summit communique affirmed that both countries would eventually achieve that status.

In his 2014 memoir, Duty, Robert M. Gates, who served as secretary of defense in both Bush's administration and Barack Obama's, conceded that "trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching." That initiative, he concluded, was a case of "recklessly ignoring what the Russians considered their own vital national interests."
Worth remembering, imho…more at the link.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Considering there's about 40,000 inches in a KM, I think we need a new unit of measurement for quantifying Russian gains. "Inches per day" is starting to look like Uke cope.


We could use millimeters. Probably more precise than inches to show Russias complete ineptitude.
nortex97
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Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:



Interesting to see Ted Carpenter's excellent 2022 piece referenced;

Quote:

Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a fullscale invasion of Ukraine is a monstrous act of aggression that has plunged the world into a perilous situation. By any reasonable standard, his move was an overthetop response to any Ukrainian or NATO provocations. However, that conclusion is different from saying that there were no provocations, as far too many policymakers and pundits in the West are doing now.

It has become especially fashionable in such circles to insist that NATO's expansion to Russia's border was in no way responsible for the current Ukraine crisis. Many dismiss all arguments to the contrary as "echoing Putin's talking points," "siding with Putin," or circulating Russian propaganda and "disinformation." Leaving aside the ugly miasma of McCarthyism enveloping such allegations, the underlying argument is factually wrong.

Russian leaders and several Western policy experts were warning more than two decades ago that NATO expansion would turn out badlyending in a new cold war with Russia at best, and a hot one at worst. Obviously, they were not "echoing" Putin or anyone else. George Kennan, the intellectual architect of America's containment policy during the Cold War, perceptively warned in a May 2, 1998 New York Times interview what NATO's move eastward would set in motion. "I think it is the beginning of a new cold war," he stated. "I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake."

U.S. and European officials blew through one red light after another.

Kennan was speaking of the first round of enlargement that brought into the Alliance Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Later rounds, which added the Baltic Republics and other East European countries, were considerably more abrasive, and Washington's subsequent attempt to make Ukraine and Georgia members was contemptuous of Russia's core security interests. Moscow's complaints and warnings were becoming increasingly sharp as well.

Yet U.S. and European officials blew through one red light after another. George W. Bush began to treat Georgia and Ukraine as valued U.S. political and military allies, and in 2008, he pressed NATO to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members. French and German wariness delayed that endeavor, but the NATO summit communique affirmed that both countries would eventually achieve that status.

In his 2014 memoir, Duty, Robert M. Gates, who served as secretary of defense in both Bush's administration and Barack Obama's, conceded that "trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching." That initiative, he concluded, was a case of "recklessly ignoring what the Russians considered their own vital national interests."
Worth remembering, imho…more at the link.
Gee...why would Georgia and Ukraine want to join NATO, a defensive alliance designed to prevent Russian aggression...
Teslag
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It's fascinating to see the the lengths people will go to 1. complete avoid giving any blame to Putin and 2. hand wave away Russia's history of aggression.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Considering there's about 40,000 inches in a KM, I think we need a new unit of measurement for quantifying Russian gains. "Inches per day" is starting to look like Uke cope.


We could use millimeters. Probably more precise than inches to show Russias complete ineptitude.


This is cope and it deserves to be called out as such. The lines and movement are clear - Uke is getting its ass kicked, killing its own POW's, and shrinking everyday.
PlaneCrashGuy
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"Uke is only losing a few inches per day" wouldn't be a salient defense even if it were true: which it isn't because they're losing ground measured in kilometers.
nortex97
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As the world turns soap opera over in Kiev this afternoon;







"He resigned." He got fired. "Nothing happened, everything is going great, besides, he has to make sure Biden's ok with it."





Forever war, comrades!
Teslag
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Quote:

The lines and movement are clear - Uke is getting its ass kicked, killing its own POW's, and shrinking everyday.

Oh really? According to?
Teslag
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Quote:

Biden purposelessly put American soldiers in harm's way because he knew they'd soon get klled and he could use that to start war.

Biden put American soliders at Tower 22 when American soldiers had been at Tower 22 prior to Biden taking office?
PlaneCrashGuy
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I wouldn't call that running.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Not sure why they are needing to repost old propaganda if the war is going so well. Maybe someone could tell us why that is? I doubt it but I'm all ears.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Yeah, sure you will.
nortex97
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How Joe Biden/Boris Johnson teamed up to prolong the war (leading to well over 500,000 casualties since), per Democrat RFK Jr:



Same team of geniuses:



Engineer casualties;



A very good Foreign Affairs piece about the impact in the current RMA that has developed/is developing further in Ukraine (too easy to click thru, and I'm feeling lazy, sorry, no pay wall);

Teslag
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They were reservists in a non combat unit
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

TheBonifaceOption said:

Quote:

But by helping we can slaughter even more Russian soldiers.

It's been a pretty wicked position to wish the destruction of plebs who are fighting "rich men's wars".

Especially if you believe the Russian people are forced into this war or have been lied to, which you certainly believe the latter.


Ah yes, the noble Russian soldier bit. The poor conscripts who have no other choice but to invade a sovereign nation and at times commit war crimes and rape Ukrainians. **** them. The point of war is to destroy your enemy, especially a hostile invader from a trash country. Every single russian soldier in Ukraine should be taken out with haste. If they don't like it, just turn around and go home.

In other news, yet another Russian general was fired for failure to keep the Ukes at bay in the south. The writing is on the wall for Russia there. Just a matter of time at this point.


In other news, the head of all of Ukraine's army was fired for failure to keep the Russians at bay. The writing is on the wall for Uke. Just a matter of time at this point.
Teslag
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Quote:

. The writing is on the wall for Uke. Just a matter of time at this point.


The ukes might have lost several microns today. The Russians should be in Kiev by the next ice age. Just a matter of time.
Ag with kids
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Considering there's about 40,000 inches in a KM, I think we need a new unit of measurement for quantifying Russian gains. "Inches per day" is starting to look like Uke cope.


We could use millimeters. Probably more precise than inches to show Russias complete ineptitude.


This is cope and it deserves to be called out as such. The lines and movement are clear - Uke is getting its ass kicked, killing its own POW's, and shrinking everyday.
Almost 2 years in and celebrating 15 sqmi of territory gained. So, a 3 mi x 5 mi area.

Ass kicking indeed.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

Quote:

. The writing is on the wall for Uke. Just a matter of time at this point.


The ukes might have lost several microns today. The Russians should be in Kiev by the next ice age. Just a matter of time.


So glad you could make it. Aren't you the "nothing I have said turned out to be wrong or was wrong at the time" guy? Because I'd like an update on this gem:

"In other news, yet another Russian general was fired for failure to keep the Ukes at bay in the south. The writing is on the wall for Russia there. Just a matter of time at this point"
PlaneCrashGuy
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Ag with kids said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Considering there's about 40,000 inches in a KM, I think we need a new unit of measurement for quantifying Russian gains. "Inches per day" is starting to look like Uke cope.


We could use millimeters. Probably more precise than inches to show Russias complete ineptitude.


This is cope and it deserves to be called out as such. The lines and movement are clear - Uke is getting its ass kicked, killing its own POW's, and shrinking everyday.
Almost 2 years in and celebrating 15 sqmi of territory gained. So, a 3 mi x 5 mi area.

Ass kicking indeed.


I thought it was measured in inches?
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

How Joe Biden/Boris Johnson teamed up to prolong the war (leading to well over 500,000 casualties since), per Democrat RFK Jr:



Same team of geniuses:



Engineer casualties;



A very good Foreign Affairs piece about the impact in the current RMA that has developed/is developing further in Ukraine (too easy to click thru, and I'm feeling lazy, sorry, no pay wall);


Quote:

Stephen Biddle weighs in with an article at Foreign Affairs. He argues (correctly) that Ukraine cannot defeat the Russian defense in depth system and that the USA has nothing to give them that will change that, including ATACMs, F-16s, and Abrams.
Yeah...Ukraine beat them back with none of this but having these wouldn't change things.

Perfectly logical.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

Quote:

. The writing is on the wall for Uke. Just a matter of time at this point.


The ukes might have lost several microns today. The Russians should be in Kiev by the next ice age. Just a matter of time.


So glad you could make it. Aren't you the "nothing I have said turned out to be wrong or was wrong at the time" guy? Because I'd like an update on this gem:

"In other news, yet another Russian general was fired for failure to keep the Ukes at bay in the south. The writing is on the wall for Russia there. Just a matter of time at this point"


And?
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

Quote:

. The writing is on the wall for Uke. Just a matter of time at this point.


The ukes might have lost several microns today. The Russians should be in Kiev by the next ice age. Just a matter of time.


So glad you could make it. Aren't you the "nothing I have said turned out to be wrong or was wrong at the time" guy? Because I'd like an update on this gem:

"In other news, yet another Russian general was fired for failure to keep the Ukes at bay in the south. The writing is on the wall for Russia there. Just a matter of time at this point"


And?


Come on now, say the line. Don't be shy.
PlaneCrashGuy
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The french are aiming to avenge their lost
Ag with kids
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

The french are aiming to avenge their lost

Cool. You follow Russian propagandists on Twitter, too?
GAC06
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Kinda blows my mind Ukraine still has Fencers to fire SS/Scalps at Russia. A glaring failure for Russia.
nortex97
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Wow, totalitarian state with total control of media reports it has cut down on corruption!



Oh but Victoria Nuland is presciently on the scene as usual:



Meanwhile;







PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

Kinda blows my mind Ukraine still has Fencers to fire SS/Scalps at Russia. A glaring failure for Russia.


According to?
nortex97
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Kinda blows my mind Ukraine still has Fencers to fire SS/Scalps at Russia. A glaring failure for Russia.


According to?
It's not one (a glaring failure, anyway). They have a handful at one air base, in western Ukraine which has some hangars that are built to withstand blasts. Russians have blasted the airfield a few times with missiles etc.

They started the war with 12 and have lost around 20 I think, but activated a bunch from storage (and also put the storm shadows on some recon versions). I dunno. From the oryx list (no idea if this is right, I am skeptical of their work/figures):

Quote:

  • 18 Su-24M strike aircraft:
  • 1 Su-24MR tactical reconnaissance aircraft:



Perhaps more interesting in this particular week/month might be the saga of the SU-35's for Iran, which, I suspect have not been produced, despite some drama around some older snapshot of a pair in what turns out to be Egyptian camouflage this month.

Training Iranian pilots coming from some ancient platform (MiG-27 or perhaps F-4 even) to be capable with that would be just as hard as going from an older MiG-29 to a middle age F-16 for the Ukrainians, I would think. I also doubt the Russians have a surplus of them to ship out right now.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Some skepticism is healthy. Its a shame there isn't more of it from Uke supporters here domestically.
nortex97
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Agreed. And healthy skepticism is always good, almost the whole point of a discussion, imho. Let's face it, right wrong or indifferent Iranians are shooting at American servicemen and women this week, and I certainly don't want any more advanced Russian or Chinese capabilities in their arsenal/forces.

I just wish the whole treasonous Biden regime could be removed from office before it got to this point. The Biden-Nuland-Blinken-Kerry (who oh by the way served in vietnam and cambodia) foreign policy has conflagrated to a very dangerous degree.

Anyway, the saga of Zelensky vs. Zaluzhny is perhaps not going to end quite yet;
Quote:

First Person View (FBV) drones have became a major cause of all losses. Ukraine was first to use those but Russia has since rapidly ramped up their production. Meanwhile Ukraine is still lagging. Each day hundreds of these drones clear Ukrainian positions without causing significant losses for the attacking Russian side.

In the New Yorker Masha Gesses takes a look at the political scene in Kiev:

Ukraine's Democracy in Darkness - (archived) - The New Yorker
With elections postponed and no end to the war with Russia in sight, Volodymyr Zelensky and his political allies are becoming like the officials they once promised to root out: entrenched.
Gessen finds that democracy in Ukraine, if it still exists, is in a sorry state:
Quote:

Such was the state of Ukraine as it entered its third consecutive winter at war: still battling the demon of corruption, still defiant, yet visibly reduced, palpably tired. ... In the meantime, in Ukraine, democracy is largely suspended. According to the regular order of things, Ukraine should have a Presidential election in March. Up until the end of Novembera few weeks before the deadline for scheduling the electionZelensky's office seemed open to having one, but ultimately decided against it. "We shouldn't have elections, because elections always create disunity," Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister who now advises the government, told me. "We need to be unified."

An estimated four to six million Ukrainians are living under Russian occupation. At least four million are living in E.U. countries, a million more are living in Russia, and at least half a million are living elsewhere outside of Ukraine. Another four million have been internally displaced. These figures include a significant number of people who became adults after the war began and aren't registered to vote. "Elections are a public discussion," Oleksandra Romantsova, the executive director of Ukraine's Center for Civil Liberties, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, told me. "But a third of the population is connected with the military. Another third is displaced." With so many people excluded from the public discussion, what would an election even mean? ..."
All power in Ukraine has been concentrated in the President's office:
Quote:

At the start of the war, when Russia was bombing Kyiv daily, the parliament had to consider the risks of continuing to hold meetings in its building, which has a glass roof. It decided to do so, but to vote only on bills that a majority wanted to bring to the floor, and to limit discussion of amendments. This effectively shifted the center of legislative work to the President's office. Among other bills, the parliament approved the declaration of martial law, introduced by Zelensky on the first day of the war, and has regularly renewed it. Martial law enables the cabinet of ministers to control who can enter and leave the countrysince the start of the war, men under the age of sixty have been forbidden to leaveand to regulate the work of all media outlets, printing presses, and distribution companies.

Zelensky's office created the United News TV Marathon, a round-the-clock program of war-related news and talk shows, supplanting what had been a vibrant and varied television news market. The segments appear on six of Ukraine's major channels and, at any given time, all of them are showing the same thing. Despite its name, United Marathon was clearly designed to be a sprint. In the early months of the war, the programming had a sense of urgency, of novelty and shock. Now even the worst dayswhen Russia fires a barrage of rockets that kill civilians across the countryare like all the other terrible days, when people are killed in the same way, in more or less the same places. There is little to analyze anymore. "The one thing all Ukrainians agree on is that we need an end to the Marathon," Romantsova told me.

Other government-controlled media target an international audience.
An example of the power struggle around the presidential office could be witnessed yesterday.
Around noon several reliable political sources in Ukraine reported that President Zelensky had signed a decree to fire the Commander in Chief General Zaluzny. Hours later the Ministry of Defense denied that Zaluzny was fired.

From information gained since we can somewhat reconstruct what had happened.

Zaluzny had been ordered into the President's office. He was asked to write his resignation. As consolation gift he would receive an ambassadorship in some western European country.
Zaluzny rejected the request and insisted of getting fired or being allowed to stay in place.
Zelenski had planned to promote the Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence in Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov as the new Commander in Chief.

Here is where I believe that other high officers, and likely also the U.S. military, stepped in.
Budanov has been in special forces intelligence from the very beginning of his career. He has never commanded anything larger than a group. Not a platoon, not a company, not a battalion, not a brigade, not a division and not a corp. How can someone who has zero experience in leading actual force formations supposed to be the commander of all Ukrainian forces including the army, air-force and navy?
It is impossible.

Budanov seems to be somewhat loyal to Zelenski (though I bet he really isn't). He is handsome and looks good on camera. He is a smooth talker. He is also a creative and talented terrorist. His actual military operations though, like the ground raids into Belgograd, have mostly been mediocre failures.
I am pretty sure that the Pentagon and even the White House may have called Kiev and stopped Zelenski from implementing such nonsense.

Zaluzny will, for now, stay in his position.

But the whole affair will have diminished the military's view of Zelenski and his consorts. In just one day a military coup In Kiev has suddenly become much more possible. As further the military situation deteriorates the higher are the chances that it will eventually happen.
True? Who knows, but I do think the soap opera in Kiev is indicative of the desperation there. Moscow might not have to go on a full offensive if they are in the process of a coup in Kiev.
notex
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Pro-Ukrainian types seem to be admitting this is happening. Zelensky seems to be in pure denial mode.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Some skepticism is healthy. Its a shame there isn't more of it from Uke supporters here domestically.


One can easily be skeptical of western media without granting full confidence and trust in Russian state media outlets and their agents on social media.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Some skepticism is healthy. Its a shame there isn't more of it from Uke supporters here domestically.


One can easily be skeptical of western media without granting full confidence and trust in Russian state media outlets and their agents on social media.


I agree, but this is a strawman.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Zelensky: paranoid dictator that can sense walls are closing in? Just asking questions.
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