Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

522,783 Views | 9427 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by Teslag
PlaneCrashGuy
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Don't fret, I'm just drawing attention to the fact that the pro Uke narratives are splintering/fracturing. None of the posters who support Ukraine aid in this thread can tell me how much land was taken back, or how much it cost to take that land. Until you can provide quantifiable data we will continue to spin our tires; which might be your goal since as I said before: its always in the abstract with the pro war side. Possibly because casualty numbers are unlawful to report in the "democracy" we are "defending"
nortex97
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nortex97
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Hungary veto's aid for Ukes again:

Quote:

Hungary has vetoed an EU plan to provide tens of billions of euros in assistance to Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on Friday. He made the announcement after a tense overnight session of the European Council in Brussels having previously walked out and abstained when other national leaders voted to launch formal talks on Kiev's bid to join the bloc.

The plan proposed by the European Commission would amend the joint EU budget. Brussels wanted to allocate 50 billion ($54 billion) for Ukraine in spending stretched over four years. Budapest opposed the plan, arguing that any assistance should be for a shorter term and pending renewal after review. Hungary also did not want to fund it through the joint budget.

Orban reported the outcome of that part of the discussion on social media, saying he had vetoed the aid proposal and review of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the EU's long-term budget.
Democrat Brownshirt FBI operative in bed with Russians got caught;





nortex97
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Good long piece in the American Conservative about the state of the war:

Quote:

Hysterical warnings that a victorious Russia would next conquer Europe and perhaps the rest of the known world, failed to rouse the public, belied by Moscow's difficulty in defeating Ukraine. Bizarre attempts to sell military aid to Kiev as a jobs-creation program for Americans failed miserably. After all, almost any expenditure on anything else in the US would provide a bigger economic boost than sending bombs to Europe.

Now Ukrainians are warning that if Americans don't agree to write checks to and risk soldiers' lives for Kiev, Ukrainians won't like us. They might turn against us. And who knows what might happen then. For instance, Denys Karlovskyi of the Royal United Services Institute warned:
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A seeming failure of the Western allies to shield Ukraine from a second butcherous war is likely to make Ukraine's population feel resentful and expended for the sake of 'great powers', just as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum is perceived by Ukrainians today. The task for NATO policymakers is to avoid making post-war Ukraine's public sentiments grow anti-Western or, worse, isolationist. They must build a mutually beneficial security cooperation framework with Ukraine's government and maintain current levels of Ukrainian public support for NATO and the E.U.
Although insulting, this is a truly wimpy threat. Ukrainians might grow "isolationist"? Does that mean they would stop asking for financial aid, military support, and security guarantees? That sounds a lot like Ukraine's position before the allies backed the 2014 street putsch against the Yanukovych government. Ukrainians didn't ask for anything special from Washington. The country looked east and west economically, held elections that flipped east and west, and avoided military commitments east and west. Corruption was rife and politics were ruthless, but, by refusing to commit themselves to either America or Russia, Ukrainians lived peacefully in a united country. That seems almost utopian compared to today.
Peace was good for the allies as well.

The reason NATO never acted on the ill-considered 2008 Bucharest promise of alliance membership is because no one believed Ukraine was worth fighting over: a position evident even as Russia invaded. Ukrainians continue to request an invitation to join the alliance, which the U.S. and Europeans continue to withhold. The European Leadership Network recently explored Ukraine's desireor, more accurately, demandfor firm security commitments from the U.S. and Europe. NATO membership was preferred, but other options were considered. However, all would be dangerous for the West. For instance, "the Japan and South Korea models" or "the Israel model," if rigorously implemented, would impose potentially substantial military burdens on the U.S.

Karlovskyi also posited an "anti-Western" Ukraine. That would be an ironic response after receiving substantial financial and military support against Moscow. However, while hostility toward the West would be unfortunate, the possibility is no reason for the allies to offer a defense commitment. Surely a defeated Kiev is unlikely to partner with Russia and attack the rest of Europe. Resentful Ukrainians could turn away economically. However, even though greater integration with Russia would be possible, the violent antagonisms unleashed by years of brutal warfare would persist. Europe would remain the most likely source of aid, investment, and trade for Ukraine. Indeed, Kiev is likely to be as dependent on the West after the conflict ends as during combat, whatever Ukrainians think about allied policy.

Yet Zelensky explicitly threatened Europe with ill consequences should it reduce support for his government. Ukrainian refugees there have so far "behaved well," he allowed. Cutting assistance, however, could "drive these people into a corner." In the Economist's paraphrase, he warned that stopping the gravy train "would create risks for the West in its own backyard. There is no way of predicting how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries would react to their country being abandoned."
More at the link.
PlaneCrashGuy
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This has to be fake, right?
nortex97
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No, it's real. Keretsky Village is in far western Ukraine, so presumably this was a city council meeting involving mobilization/draftees, I would guess, at first. Or maybe PTSD type of derangement, not sure yet.

Nut job supposedly killed 1, injured around 26, and himself (one blew up in his hand).
PlaneCrashGuy
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That is not something I expected to see today.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Awaiting verification, but certainly big if true
nortex97
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I was once stationed at Fort Bliss. The patriots are very good weapons but hardly a silver bullet (especially against smaller drones), and depend on placement/operational proficiency alike. The loss of a system/part of a battery amid the assorted drone/missile strikes isn't really that surprising, imho.

Very intriguing analyses of the 'talk' about Ukraine joining the EU (hint, it's just propaganda/talk):

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Not only does Ukraine objectively lack the requisite qualifications, but its large agricultural industry would destroy existing members' if it were to join, who are expected to impede any substantial progress on this process for that reason.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan praised the EU's decision to open accession talks with Ukraine, which Hungary didn't veto after receiving over 10 billion in unblocked funds, but this decision is solely symbolic and won't amount to membership anytime soon. Not only does Ukraine objectively lack the requisite qualifications, but its large agricultural industry would destroy existing members' if it were to join, who are expected to impede any substantial progress on this process for that reason.

Just like "Removing Ukraine's MAP Requirement For Joining NATO Isn't As Important As It Seems", so too are Ukraine's EU accession talks. Both decisions were intended to cushion the blow of Ukraine being unofficially barred from membership in both. Neither can formally acknowledge that it's unrealistic to let that country join their blocs, especially NATO, ergo why they continue stringing it along. For his part, Zelensky predictably spun both as victories, which he did for self-serving domestic reasons.
Political intrigue is deepening in Kiev as preexisting tensions worsen following the counteroffensive's failure and in the run-up to what many expect to be an forthcoming Russian offensive, thus explaining why the Ukrainian leader wants to mislead his people into thinking that they'll join the EU and NATO. If he told them the truth, then they'd become even more demoralized, and that could create even greater complications for his new conscription drive and exacerbate rising anti-government sentiment.

Regime change risks are higher than ever since Zelensky's refusal to recommence peace talks with Russia aimed at reaching a so-called "land-for-peace" deal have angered his Western patrons, who fear that any forthcoming Russian offensive could reverse the gains that they spent over $200 billion to achieve. Moreover, Ukrainians are beginning to wonder whether it was worth abandoning peace talks in spring 2022 under Western pressure after all that they've lost since then as the conflict finally winds down.
It's therefore in Zelensky's domestic political interests to make them think that removing Ukraine's

Membership Action Plan requirements for NATO and its latest accession talks with the EU were the result of continuing to wage NATO's proxy waron Russia. This false narrative misleads them into thinking that further progress on both is contingent on defeating Russia. If they begin to doubt either of his premises, then they might consider a "Maidan 3", which could be orchestrated by his rivals and/or the US.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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What a time to be alive!
PlaneCrashGuy
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I question the authenticity or I'd buy several of those. You think its legit?
nortex97
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Zero chance it's legit. Funny though.

fka ftc
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Just started the book In Mortal Combat by John Toland and in the prologue he goes over the preparedness of the South Koreans (or lack thereof) and how the US helped stoke the fires of conflict but hamstrung the South Koreans by removing US troops and limiting weapons support leading up to the conflict.

Sounds vaguely familiar doesn't it? This was never about sovereign Ukraine this has always been a proxy battle with Moscow to harrass Putin without committing US troops (thus far) and circulating a rhetoric that Zelensky and his brave supporters are worthy of our bullets but more importantly our gold.

We should end all support for Ukraine and withdraw from NATO. That is the best answer.
ttu_85
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nortex97 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

nortex97 said:

Biden to blame GOP for Russia's victory?

Of course. And the Euro's will blame Hungary for their failure to deliver yet more ammo. Nothing is ever team WEF's fault.


Biden: poopy pants dementia patient

Also Biden: Dr. Evil Level Worldwide Conflict Puppet Master
Both are correct. He's not the one running the administration, obviously. He can't even read a teleprompter or note card, or use stairs. Those dangerous truths don't obviate the fact that he is a shameless inveterate liar and traitor, or person guilty of treason against the constitution and people of the United States. JRB Ware, or whatever you want to call him, has to claim he wipes his own ass. Maybe, maybe not.

The Valerie Jarrett and Victoria Nulands of the world/state department/executive branch shadow government are just as dangerous as ever and feel no sense of accountability for their subterfuge.
True Biden can't do anything right. True he is not running things and is a total dumbass.
True Ukraine is corrupt as hell. True lots of people are in this war for the money, skimming while pimple faced Russian and Ukrainian teenagers get slaughtered by new high tech weapons to be tested. Its also true the other tread is full of "Europe is awesome but why isn't America doing more" idiots.

Its also true Putin is a power hungry ******* that can in no way be viewed as any thing but a criminal. Its also true I am fine with the Neo-Russian empire getting kneed in the nuts. And anyone that thinks its no danger to Europe is a dumbass.

As Mike Leach the great Red Raider coach famously said "F* me, F* them, F* everybody." That is where the Ukrainian Russian war is today, A stain on the smelly tapestry of human history.

Hope I pissed everyone off.
PlaneCrashGuy
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nortex97 said:

Zero chance it's legit. Funny though.




"Ukraine has had a terrible week"

Maybe thats why I had a great one.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Thats an interesting patch!
nortex97
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On the genocide of Ukrainians to prolong the grift Biden proxy war as documented in the NYT. Per Budanov himself:

Quote:

This report is particularly salient given that Ukraine's GUR head Kiril Budanov just released his own damning admission about the current state of recruitment in the country, during a panel called "2024: Challenges and Prospects":
Quote:

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"We don't have so many people willing to do anything. I'm not even talking about fighting, but this is current. There will be losses and this number must be maintained constantly," added the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Now the effectiveness of forcibly mobilized Ukrainians is almost zero. This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov.

"Everyone who wanted to came in the first six months. Who is being called up now? Unfortunately, there will not be a good answer here. If you don't find motivation for these people, then how many people are not forced or according to the law, then their efficiency will be almost zero. What in principle, this is what has been happening lately," Budanov said.

He believes that financial benefits for those mobilized are no longer in first place. "Most of our people, although everyone shouts "I am Ukrainian, Ukraine is above all," have not felt themselves to be citizens of Ukraine. They do not have the feeling that the enemy has captured the territory and this is my sacred duty to defend this country. Everyone is rooting for Ukraine , but everyone is running," added the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
He candidly admits that not only have mobilization pools dried up, with everyone who actually wanted to be there already having signed up in the first 6 months of war; but further, and more damningly, that the effectiveness of soldiers who were forcibly mobilized is 'near zero'.

Recall what I wrote previously about how Ukraine's number one issue is not necessarily rounding up the bodies themselves, it's getting trained and motivated bodies who are capable of carrying out assaults. AFU commanders on every line are complaining that their soldiers are literally incapable of assaulting.
Defending is much easier because it doesn't require the same level of physical fitness or coordination.
The Times article above talks about a 58 year old being pulled off the street. What kind of assault can 58 year olds conduct? And the few assault-worthy brigades Ukraine has left are being sacrificed by criminal political orders to fight for useless symbolic objectives.

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As validation to the article, just today a new post from an AFU-linked channel had this harrowing cry for help:
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"I don't know if this will help or not anymore. But I will write it here once again! We are being exterminated by our own command. I am asking for help from everyone who can provide it. Knock on all doors, hold rallies and actions! Record a video! Do something. We are almost openly threatened with execution if we record videos ourselves and ask for help. Help us!
Krynkyi is a real hell. Mountains of corpses of our brothers. This will not end if everyone remains silent...

Reach out to the global community! It is useless to appeal to the country's authorities! They give the order for our extermination. They will not punish themselves.

I have found people who will be willing to translate your videos into English!

Record and send. It is necessary to reach the Hague International Court.

What is happening now is a crime against one's own people. Genocide of Ukrainians. I can't call it anything else.
Ukrainian Post
As I've stated before, the only reason Ukraine continues to persist in this area is due to sunk cost fallacy, as well as a refusal to destroy credibility by ending the operation. They've already built it up so grandly that to abandon it now would be an admission of defeat almost equal to losing one of the prized cities, like Bakhmut or Avdeevka. So they're now forced to squander on and continue exterminating some of their best units just to "keep up appearances" and keep the world from witnessing another massive, demoralizing setback which could kill the last bit of Western support.

The only question is, why now? Are these press outlets angling to draw attention and coverage to these horrors for the purpose of increasing aid at such a critical time? That's probably likely, though there may be more to it, like the gradual campaign of tarnishing Zelensky in order to effect his ouster later.

The truth is, I almost didn't cover it because it all feels so same-y after a while. I prefer to do reports that expand our awareness or understanding of new issues rather than treading the same ground, with the same dreary tales telling us things we've known for a long time. However, it does make the important revelation that much of Russia's contentions are slowly being proven right as time goes by.

Many of these reports merely repeat what the Russian side has been saying for monthswhich they were heavily criticized and lampooned for.

It was "Russian propaganda!" to dare contradict that the valiant Marines were slaughtering all the orcs in Khrynky, and advancing day by day. It was "Russian propaganda!" to call into question Ukraine's supposedly bottomless resource pool, and dare assert that the side taking a mere "15,000 total casualties"as per Zelensky and co.would ever begin to "run out of men."

But suddenly we have it from ever-tight-lipped Budanov himself that not only does the Ukrainian society now lack willing able-bodied men, but that the body-snatched ones are effectively useless in real combat.
More at the link, as always.



PlaneCrashGuy
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Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
nortex97
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Putin has ramped up his rhetoric, unfortunately, noting that Odessa is a russian city a few days ago and regarding the SMO as a civil war, etc. I don't think they will stop short of Kiev, at this point.

Ultimately, the Russians have a huge manpower and artillery advantage at this point, as even the most die-hard pro-UFA folks like Rob Lee have noted of late;



This information will eventually trickle over to the 'other' thread, I imagine.

ravingfans
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This has to be propaganda--can't imagine how the Ukrainian public trusts the military at 96% or zelenzky at 62% with the lack of progress and the conscription if older and older fighters...
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
Part of this is true. Neither side can mount offensives, and that's why it's a stalemate and remain that way. Though Putin can't really dictate anything other than just continuing hostilities. He has no ability to take anything relevant. He can't throw men at the problem. He doesn't have the material or tech. So he can definitely choose to continue.

But make no mistake, once Ukraine is in NATO and that presence is there, it's over for good. And that day is coming.
Teslag
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ravingfans said:

This has to be propaganda--can't imagine how the Ukrainian public trusts the military at 96% or zelenzky at 62% with the lack of progress and the conscription if older and older fighters...

Exactly. It's almost like Ukrainians really, really don't want to be Russians.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
Part of this is true. Neither side can mount offensives, and that's why it's a stalemate and remain that way. Though Putin can't really dictate anything other than just continuing hostilities. He has no ability to take anything relevant. He can't throw men at the problem. He doesn't have the material or tech. So he can definitely choose to continue.

But make no mistake, once Ukraine is in NATO and that presence is there, it's over for good. And that day is coming.


What are you seeing out of Russia that suggests they're unable to mount an offensive? Uke propagandists has suggested this but what is the actual evidence?
fka ftc
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
Part of this is true. Neither side can mount offensives, and that's why it's a stalemate and remain that way. Though Putin can't really dictate anything other than just continuing hostilities. He has no ability to take anything relevant. He can't throw men at the problem. He doesn't have the material or tech. So he can definitely choose to continue.

But make no mistake, once Ukraine is in NATO and that presence is there, it's over for good. And that day is coming.


What are you seeing out of Russia that suggests they're unable to mount an offensive? Uke propagandists has suggested this but what is the actual evidence?
Pretty sure Russia has planes, missiles and nukes to mount an effective offensive if they prefer to go that route. But Ukes have great bravery and team spirit, yes they do. They got Zelensky, how about you...?! And the pro-Uke crowd cheers whilst teenagers and grandpappies are slaughtered in the hopes of stacking orc corpses.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
Part of this is true. Neither side can mount offensives, and that's why it's a stalemate and remain that way. Though Putin can't really dictate anything other than just continuing hostilities. He has no ability to take anything relevant. He can't throw men at the problem. He doesn't have the material or tech. So he can definitely choose to continue.

But make no mistake, once Ukraine is in NATO and that presence is there, it's over for good. And that day is coming.


What are you seeing out of Russia that suggests they're unable to mount an offensive? Uke propagandists has suggested this but what is the actual evidence?


Probably the fact that since the spring of 2022 they have been unable to take anything of note. Bakhmut took all winter last year and had to be done with a PMC that no longer exists. That's it, that's Russias accomplishments coming on two years now.
Teslag
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Nukes aren't offensive weapons. They are stand off weapons, even smaller tactical yield types.

Russia lacks the logistics, ground equipment, NCO/Officer corp, and organization needed for a large offensive. That's why they can't do it. Russia thought they could 1943 it again with bodies.

But that doesn't work anymore.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Sounds like Ukraine has no ability to mount an offensive. It makes sense Russia would be aware of this. I'm sure Russian troops are reporting that the folks in their sights are getting older and older. One thing is abundantly clear, it ends when Putin says it does, the west is not winning this.
Part of this is true. Neither side can mount offensives, and that's why it's a stalemate and remain that way. Though Putin can't really dictate anything other than just continuing hostilities. He has no ability to take anything relevant. He can't throw men at the problem. He doesn't have the material or tech. So he can definitely choose to continue.

But make no mistake, once Ukraine is in NATO and that presence is there, it's over for good. And that day is coming.


What are you seeing out of Russia that suggests they're unable to mount an offensive? Uke propagandists has suggested this but what is the actual evidence?


Probably the fact that since the spring of 2022 they have been unable to take anything of note. Bakhmut took all winter last year and had to be done with a PMC that no longer exists. That's it, that's Russias accomplishments coming on two years now.


Personally, I think it's a mistake to conflate what they have or have not done with what they can or cannot do. Your logic applied to football would say that Texas A&M cannot win the SEC, because they have not won the SEC, which even small children can recognize as flawed logic.
Teslag
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Quote:

Personally, I think it's a mistake to conflate what they have or have not done with what they can or cannot do.

On the contrary, I think judging someone by their actual capability is quite accurate. Putin isn't some grand stategist, and he's bungled Ukraine from the beginning. Russia isn't the steadfast nation that will throw bodies at a problem until it goes away, see Afghanistan. If Russia could take Ukraine they would have by now. They threw crack outfits at Ukraine in March of 2022. They were decimated by the summer.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:


Quote:

Personally, I think it's a mistake to conflate what they have or have not done with what they can or cannot do.

On the contrary, I think judging someone by their actual capability is quite accurate. Putin isn't some grand stategist, and he's bungled Ukraine from the beginning. Russia isn't the steadfast nation that will throw bodies at a problem until it goes away, see Afghanistan. If Russia could take Ukraine they would have by now. They threw crack outfits at Ukraine in March of 2022. They were decimated by the summer.


You don't have to look any further than the Vietnam war to see why this line of thinking is mistaken America absolutely could have won but chose not to as the cost was too high.
Teslag
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The differing objectives make that comparison non-existent. We didn't want to invade Vietnam and claim it as our own. Russia does with Ukraine. It's not a problem of cost, it's a problem of capability. It's why I always ask the same question when someone says Russia will eventually win....




With what?
PlaneCrashGuy
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Your refusal to acknowledge the similarity doesn't invalidate the comparison in anyones mind but your own.

America was fighting to liberate Nam. Ukraine is doing the same for themselves. Both Russia and America have military capabilities they haven't shown. Would you care to try again?
Teslag
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What military capability has Russia not shown? Are we back to the "Russia is hiding a vast well equipped military" conspiracy again"?
GAC06
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They could start lobbing nukes, which is the equivalent of flipping over a board game when it's clear victory is impossible.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Only a fraction of the Russian Army is in Ukraine currently. If Russia decides to bring the full force of their military into Uke, you'll know it.
Teslag
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What fraction? What additional equipment would they send? Why would that equipment be more effective? How will they provide CAS? Have they solved their decencies with logistics and supply lines? Who will man this new equipment? How do they protect the other areas of their nation will 100% military commitment to Ukraine?




Again, with what?
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