Negotiate to a truce/stand down sounds good but the devil is in the details; Zelensky faces being violently deposed in an interim 'peace' when word gets around further about the extent of Ukrainian social destruction;
Quote:
But as we said before, Zelensky can't stop nowhe risks being pilloried and lynched in public for the devastation he wrought to no end. So now, Zelensky has made it official that this coming week he will finally address the elephant in the room and clarify the new mobilization procedures, which everyone has been awaiting.
There are all sorts of rumors as to what this could entail, from major new age expansions like the 17 to 70 year old recruitment some have talked about, to the announcement of stricter female mobilization, to other more plausible things like expansion of TCC commissar powers, which will give commissars more legal sanction to mobilize people forcefully.
I'm not sure how true this is exactly, but what I've read suggests that, despite much of the highly coercive recruitment methods we've seen in videos on the net, Ukrainian commissars are not actually legally allowed to utilize some of the extrajudicial methods currently utilized. And allegedly, in some cases actual police can be called to 'shoo' the coercive commissars away. In short, they appear to operate in a sort of legal 'gray zone' which is often merely suffered through by unwitting citizens. This extends to powers of police like forcibly stopping citizens' cars on the road and detaining them, or barging into certain premises, especially private households. These are all areas commissarsas per this understandingare not legally justified in violating, yet they have been doing so simply out of desperation to get their quotas, and it's often been societally permitted just on account of no one wanting to rock the boat and be accused of sabotaging the war effort.
Quote:
We urgently need meat to the front: Zelensky promises to accelerate mobilization, military commissars will be allowed to grab people on the street, check documents and serve summonses. Now only the police have this right.
Zelensky has also already announced changes in the course of mobilization towards tightening the conscription.
Secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security Roman Kostenko said:
"Now there are a lot of questions from the TCC (commissars) and from those citizens whom they are trying to mobilize. In fact, the TCC does not have any rights to stop a person, give him a summons, demand documents from him. The police sometimes distance themselves from this so as not to be at the center of a scandal, so as not to attract a person," Kostenko said on Radio NV.
According to him, such an innovation will appear in the bill, which will be developed by the end of the year. Previously, it was announced by the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia.
Also, military registration and enlistment office employees will be able to make audio and video recordings of their communications with people.
Hence rumor has it Zelensky's next decree will actually legally expand those powers for commissars to be able to have full-on police powers in detaining people on the street, asking for paperwork and ID and various things of that nature.
Quote:
"Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is going to level the problem of shortage of weapons with mass mobilization. The Ukrainian Armed Forces spent too many resources on the Azov operation and now we need to strengthen mobilization so that in 2024 there will be reserves for a new counter-offensive."
Another rumor from Rezident_UA channel states that Zelensky plans to get his fill of fodder from a new mobilization and then throw Zaluzhny under the bus by blaming it all on him, in effect killing 'two birds with one stone'which would get rid of the albatross of Zaluzhny while washing Zelensky's own hands of the blood and sin.
Quote:
The Ukrainian TG channel "Resident" writes:
"Our source in the OP said that the President's Office wants to use the hatred of Ukrainians for the TCC against Zaluzhny, who personifies the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means that all excesses in mobilization are his responsibility. Bankova is preparing a number of information campaigns that are supposed to discredit the commander-in-chief and then remove him "
They say that if you keep throwing people's anger at each other, one day it will catch up with everyone together. So eat each other up, be more active.
In general, all the theses we've read about Ukraine going into a defensive posture recently appear to be proving true. Zelensky's strategy seems to be "preservation mode" for now, with only some choice, token offensive action in areas where opportunity may present itself.
For Russia, the risk of a truce is that in such a period rapid nato membership could be pronounced for Ukraine, and why allow that to happen when they could now just run through the whole place in the spring or at least see the government toppled under pressure shortly?
Avdiivka is falling quickly now;
Quote:
Now let's briefly cover the most significant theater of Avdeevka.
As of today Russia has again made major significant advancements and breakthroughs here, one of which being unconfirmed for now, the other fully confirmed.
The confirmed is a major, total overrun of AFU positions in the Vinograd and Industrial sectors of southeast Avdeevka…
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144af7db-819a-4d14-9342-8f9ebf38ce5d_1280x709.jpeg][/url]
Some of the exact details are yet to be fully ironed out, like which specific areas are gray zone versus total RF consolidation. However, we have video confirmations of Ukrainian troops retreating up Yasynovsky Lane. This is being hailed as a particular triumph for the troops on the ground because, for the ones who've been there since the beginning, the industrial sector was considered one of the most heavily fortified areas that have withstood their assaults for going on a decade.
Quote:
"The fact that our guys broke through the Vdyevka hole is a feat. I think I'm sure that this was the strongest part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' defense along the entire front line. The proximity of our positions to the enemy's positions played an important role for us. However, this closeness was difficult for us. This has been an open wound since 2016, it has been going on. But we held out! And we went forward, broke through this important boundary! The opponent must understand the misfortune of his situation. Glory to the Russian soldier!" - Alexander Sladkov wrote earlier.
Anyway, the Russians are confirmed to be taking dramatically fewer casualties despite being largely on the offensive, an indicia of the desperate state of affairs for the UFA:
200
casualties a month isn't really 'bleeding Russia.' A neutral Ukraine with a new government committed to not joining Nato is going to have to happen at this point for the war to stop, imho. The EU trying to create a stronger/more flexible military force under Nato within a 'military Schengen zone' to disrupt the threat of Wilders/Orban's of the continent is funny (nominally pointed at Moscow), but also likely to keep this running/shooting going on. Ultimately, I am not sure what the lamentations about 'we just need to ship more materiel faster' are referencing? Europe/the US are not able to produce more, anytime soon.
Meanwhile,
the expanded RU drone/missile inventory is continuing large scale attacks on infrastructure. Euro budgets strained toward the point of disaster;
FJB. None of this had to happen.
