In summary, to bring this back around to an update on the Ukraine war.

As of October 17th, 2023 Israel has not said anything nor are there indications they have an ammo issue due to Ukraine. Russia tried and miserably failed at their first offensive since last year, proving once again they have no ability to mount an offensive. And the Ukrainians can now suppress Russian helicopter assets in the region due to ATACMS being in theater.

To summarize without lying about anything; Israel has had the American reserves pre-positioned there depleted for stocking Ukraine needs, without replenishment until emergency shipments of some via pallets right after the Hamas attacks, and had publicly noted concerns about ammo shortages prior to the depletion. This is a direct consequence of Biden administration actions related to the Ukraine foray:

Quote:

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(June 27, 2023 / JNS)
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Washington has contributed in excess of $39.7 billion in security assistance to Kyiv.

However, faced with the pressing issue of ammunition scarcity in Ukraine, the U.S. has stepped up to replenish its depleted arsenal by dipping into its own overseas munitions reserves. Interestingly, one of these stockpiles is located in Israel.

The War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel, or WRSA-I, was, until recently, relatively secret. The cache of ammunition and supplies is intended to serve as a readily-accessible reservean insurance policyshould Israel face a shortage during a crisis, such as occurred during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), a Washington, D.C.-based organization, has made replenishing and modernizing the WRSA-I one of its highest policy priorities.

Blaise Misztal, VP of policy at JINSA, told JNS that the organization "is working to educate Washington about three rather obscure facts: the existence of WRSA-I; its current, depleted state; and the importance of U.S.-supplied precision-guided munitions (PGMs) to Israel's ability to deter Iran and its proxies and, therefore by extension, to U.S. security interests as well."

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The US has been desperately working to 'borrow' and get ammo from places like South Korea due to the depletion of our stockpiles globally, and now there is little to no reason to think this concern of Israel has been obviated by magic propaganda/lies from Biden/war cheerleaders. We've documented repeatedly here and elsewhere the shortage of both precision and regular 155mm ammo due to the war in Ukraine.

Snark snark snark. I'd encourage normal readers to go check links, or common sense. The Israeli position is precarious, much more-so than otherwise it would be, due to the Biden war in Ukraine.

I think another issue with the lack of updates recently is that a lot of the typical sources (Lord Bebo, Armchair Warlord, Kim Dot Com, etc) have gone full bore anti-IDF and being hypercritical of of Israel and what the IDF are doing/plan to do. In essence, those sources are now toxic and thus a little hot to handle and repost at the moment. So while the spirit of "another perspective" is nice and all, it does present the issue that many of these sources are so outwardly anti-American that we have to remember they will align themselves with any group that makes us look bad, including much of the hostile middle east world like Hamas.

This is was one of the most quoted Twitter accounts on this board an he's fully on board with carrying Hamas' water.

🇵🇸🇮🇱🚨‼️ BREAKING: The hospital was hit with a very high probability by a JDAM bomb.

- This means it was the Israeli airforce.
- This means it was a targeted attack.

No words …

UPDATED with comparison to the missiles. https://t.co/uKC8pI8kV4 pic.twitter.com/CJXQa8uMWU

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 17, 2023

Interesting you follow that account. I mean, lot's of war porn, so I get it. I always curated the links I used to be more credible among what was provided, providing probably many dozens of sources over the past year here. But things are rarely as simple as 'my team vs. yours.' For instance, Qatar has been a big ally of Kiev, and Hamas. Al Jazeera (their state media), heck, was one of the better sources of neutral coverage in Ukraine-Russia. I linked to/excerpted them many times, when I thought it was accurate data.

Unsurprisingly, that one (linked by Teslag) is way off:

#BREAKING: One minute before the Baptist Hospital in Gaza was hit, Hams announced on its own Telegram channel that they were launching their strongest rockets at the northern Israeli city of Haifa.

However, no interceptions or impacts were detected near Haifa. pic.twitter.com/rDihUomrHH

— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) October 17, 2023

Gaza hospital bombed. IDF was not operating in the area.

It appears to have come from a failed Hamas rocket. pic.twitter.com/gt2fc8LRtH

— The Mossad: Satirical, Yet Awesome (@TheMossadIL) October 17, 2023

But some do choose a side, reflexively, in any conflict on the basis of their biases, without considering other perspectives/complexities. Some tend to just go with whatever 'the next big thing' is, whether it's a war in Europe, medical experimentation, old-new forms of transportation, etc.

As stated above, I've lost a lot of interest in the Ukraine war as it is ending as I expected (though the end isn't yet announced publicly); massive bloodshed, Ukraine's population depleted, strengthened BRICS-alliance, inflation/hunger globally, an expanded Russia, profits incoming for blackrock etc., and a weakened US vs. our primary foe, Xiden's pal Xi.

I'm unhappy to have been proven correct by time in this matter, and completely unsurprised some don't get that. Pretty much anyone can look at my post history and see my interest the past couple weeks, and I don't really care if any hyperactive message board 'enemies' agree or disagree with me on the Israel-Hamas war.

I've actually always appreciated your takes and what you bring, despite disagreeing with almost all of it. The back and forth is healthy for finding the truth.

Russia is going to be in prime position to end this conflict over the winter. Distraction in the ME with Israel and flush coffers from $100+ oil will make for a bountiful winter.

If Biden blinks on supporting Israel during their ground war, NATO further weekends, Turkey ramps up their rhetoric and we may see a country like Poland switch back over to momma bear.

We have gone from US being strong to looking like China taking the global stage from the US and instead Russia may be the one holding some good cards over the next few years.

India is going to need an energy ally. Another win for Russia.

Russia is now proven to be completely unable to mount an offensive, combined with atacms severely limiting their CAS advantage won't be in prime position to end anything.

Also, why you cling to the fantasy that Poland will ever align with Russia i have no idea. Even Russian mil bloggers don't entertain an idea like that.

Since Teslag is unaware of it then it must be fantasy. Makes sense.

Been doing some learning on Polish history, particularly over the past 100 years, 30 years, past 5 years.

Even though Jack Ryan is indeed a fictional show, you think its pure fantasy that there are those in Poland who seek to take advantage of turmoil and seize power?

Government in Poland has long been weak and the current iteration is more stable than most central African countries. Poland has been occupied more times than France.

For periods of time it has not even been its own country, and I don't mean a state of a bigger country that resolved, I mean ceased to be its own country whatsoever.

At other times in the modern area it has had no formal government at all.

So know its not fka ftc fantasy. Its knowing history and studying from multiple sources what is happening behind the scenes in a reshuffling of global power were are now thoroughly into.

While I've enjoyed the back and forth between you two you both might want to edit or delete. Staff has been clear about bans for derails, especially personal bickering. I don't want to see either of you get the axe. We need to police ourselves here.

Appreciate it, but my posts all relate to my update from yesterday regarding Poland, and in defense of how I arrived at my positions.

Poland is part of the Russia / Ukraine conflict whether it wants to be or not. From my 'other' perspective, I see Poland being at risk for switching teats to Mother Russia.

I also will defend how I arrived at that conclusion from reading history and from entertainment sources that though they may embellish history usually do a pretty factual job at basing their concepts on actual events / feelings / circumstances.

Even though they are ridiculed by others, they are actually solid takes and I have been proven correct over and over despite being ridiculed, mocked and attacked.

I wouldn't sweat it.

I don't see the Poles switching sides though, unless the EU does try to force them to take arab/moslem refugees. They really do distrust the Russians a lot. As in, not just a political party/group, but a vast majority of their population.

The big movements of Poles, Germans, Lithuanians, and other Slavic peoples over time/throughout wars amidst/among etc. the current borders of these nation states today is very complex over time, and probably above my pay grade/interests (I wouldn't know the term 'Sudetenland' but for the nazi's use of it as a predicate for WW2). If the new, more-EU friendly government ticks off the population tremendously, as Kiev (the government) does at the same time (grain dumping/demands/whining), I could see a moderate shift toward Moscow, but not a real big one really.

Ultimately, I don't think Polish actions are going to be in any way determinative of the outcome of this war, though.

Certainly can see your points.

Agree regarding Polish not being impactful so much as bellwether for how things may ultimately shape out.

Article I read last week centered on us being at the end of a global reordering that began in 1990's with the fall of the Soviet Union. Out of this cycle a new one will begin with some unions breaking apart and others joining, and the governments will see shifts in power from the incredible migration of the last few decades from Arabs / Africans / Eastern Europeans into Western Europe, and of course the influx into our borders.

Personally, I think we are now pushing out into the choppy waters of what will ultimately become dangerous and deadly seas.

Quote:

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They really do distrust the Russians a lot. As in, not just a political party/group, but a vast majority of their population.

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Distrust may be putting it mildly. Unbridled hatred may be more accurate.

Not surprised to see this:

Ukraine hasn't held a census since the 90s because they never wanted to face facts that their population was declining.

So nothing has changed by cancelling it yet again for the same reason. https://t.co/HLBu5x4tej

— Fennec_Radar (@RadarFennec) October 21, 2023

Or this…

The Ukrainians apparently tried to launch some kind of mass air raid today that failed spectacularly - the Russians reported shooting down no fewer than seven Ukrainian aircraft and fifteen ballistic missiles with no apparent losses. Some may very well have been ATACMS launches.…

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 21, 2023

Update and analysis on the ongoing Battle of Avdeevka.

Major changes since my last full update are that Russian troops secured the "Terrikon" slag heap north of town, extended their position on the south intervisibility line and are now threatening the "Royal Hunt" strongpoint… pic.twitter.com/5dppZA2grX

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 21, 2023

Bumping this post in light of news the Ukrainians have cancelled their scheduled census.

The results would, I guarantee you, be absolutely cataclysmic. https://t.co/4TLPv9bu8B

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 21, 2023

They just don't have the people/manpower to ultimately 'win' this war.

Shipments to Israel will decrease Ukraine's ability to sustain July-August fire rates in 2024:

According to some estimates, Ukraine fired 180-230k rounds in July & August achieving local fire superiority for the 1st time. 🇺🇦 will struggle to achieve similar rates of fire in 2024. The #s discussed below are relatively small when compared to overall artillery consumption. https://t.co/ccxoGVTdrz

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) October 20, 2023

Russia is said to have produced 100,000 drones in September. Here's one homegrown example:

If Congress figures out their crap, Ukraine is about to get infused with another $61B on top of the $100B already spent. That would seem to sustain the stalemate for many more months.

Maybe, maybe not as the new speaker of the house has a solid "F" rating on Ukraine aid votes.

Best endorsement I’ve seen yet https://t.co/dbu1RI5eAT

— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) October 25, 2023

#UPDATE Slovakia's new populist Prime Minister Robert Fico said Thursday that his government was stopping military aid to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/lUTX0lQkO8

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 26, 2023

The Ukrainian leader has a helicopter ready for evacuation, and the Ukrainians have no choice but to conclude a truce before the New Year, said Oleg Soskin, adviser to the former president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma.

▪️The new conflict in the Middle East and the inability of the… pic.twitter.com/1QgzryLhMG

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) October 25, 2023

Letter to the Speaker of the House and President pro tempore of the Senate consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148) https://t.co/pQiNGYfLeY via @whitehouse

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) October 30, 2023

The situation in Dagestan was organized from Ukraine … 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/fpiPrLrDGY pic.twitter.com/HYNoAZw8OA

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 30, 2023

Mike Johnson says he will decouple Israeli aid from Ukraine aid:

"We are going to move a stand-alone Israeli funding bill." pic.twitter.com/vVxsKGfLIY

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) October 29, 2023

GAC06 said:

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I'm not retired, I'm in my prime

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Damn Double Dipper!

The Bartiromo interview was a good one and encouraging.

Single issue bills, particularly aid bills, should eb the standard.

Read any disaster recovery bill following a hurricane. Those things are stocked to the gills with pork. Hurricane in Florida gets money for bee habitats in Oregon, a park in NYC, racial justice centers in Atlanta, and marble upgrades for the Taj Obama in South Chicago.

Agreed. Also, it's funny/sad how few even pretend to care about this war that his killed hundreds of thousands now.

Still, the propaganda press is shameless, to the bitter end:

Talking about burying your own lede pic.twitter.com/5YApkCj4cJ

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) October 30, 2023

A GPF article on Ukraine laid out that there is essentially no path to ending the Ukraine war at this point. Russia still has to save face, Ukraine will not be given the resourced to reverse what Russia has done.

Russia in the interim though does have the resources to rebuild, replenish and potential reinvent their forces to either make a stance to keep what they have or push further for Kiev.

My personal bet is status quo is maintained until Putin departs his terrestial presence. Biggest thing to keep an eye on now is who comes after Putin.

Along those same lines, Z may get taken out if Biden actually goes down - particularly if Trump returns as he will take his revenge. Personally, I think Z should rot in Florence with Biden and Putin, but that's wishful thinking.

I really think the irony is that Russia is net, for the oligarchs anyway, richer today and their military much stronger than before the war started, while Ukraine is demographically decimated. The Time article references the obvious graft/corruption in Kiev of 'aid' which betrays the obvious 'this is it, grab it while we still can' attitude of our 'allies.'

I'm sure they knew that when the pendulum in the US swung back to the GOP the unity over 'fighting evil Russians' would evaporate, or be caused to evaporate by another set of events. We've documented as much throughout this thread.

They are now a distant second priority (or third if China attacks Taiwan), and with Europe in the throws of violence from their moslem minority/invaders, no one has time for political descendants of the nazi's with their hands out continuously.

Europe and central asia have more than just a muslim v non-muslim problem, they have a full fledge tribalism problem growing.

Expect borders to change over the next 10-15 years in that whole area. Significant changes like we saw post WWII and then in the decade after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Thanks 81 million for Brandon!

nortex97 said:

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I really think the irony is that Russia is net, for the oligarchs anyway, richer today and their military much stronger than before the war started, while Ukraine is demographically decimated. The Time article references the obvious graft/corruption in Kiev of 'aid' which betrays the obvious 'this is it, grab it while we still can' attitude of our 'allies.'

I'm sure they knew that when the pendulum in the US swung back to the GOP the unity over 'fighting evil Russians' would evaporate, or be caused to evaporate by another set of events. We've documented as much throughout this thread.

They are now a distant second priority (or third if China attacks Taiwan), and with Europe in the throws of violence from their moslem minority/invaders, no one has time for political descendants of the nazi's with their hands out continuously.

---

You keep saying their military is much stronger than before the war.

Why aren't they showing it? At the beginning of the war they got stopped before Kiev and pushed back (before all the aid started flowing in). They essentially got pushed to where the fronts are now.

Why doesn't this much stronger military just push right through now?

Please explain your logic.

SockStilkings said:

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A GPF article on Ukraine laid out that there is essentially no path to ending the Ukraine war at this point. Russia still has to save face, Ukraine will not be given the resourced to reverse what Russia has done.

Russia in the interim though does have the resources to rebuild, replenish and potential reinvent their forces to either make a stance to keep what they have or push further for Kiev.

My personal bet is status quo is maintained until Putin departs his terrestial presence. Biggest thing to keep an eye on now is who comes after Putin.

Along those same lines, Z may get taken out if Biden actually goes down - particularly if Trump returns as he will take his revenge. Personally, I think Z should rot in Florence with Biden and Putin, but that's wishful thinking.

---

Statelmate was always the outcome. I posted notes from a presentation I heard in month one of this ordeal from Ash Carter and Alex Younger and both said then this will end in stalemate. And then it will become a war of attrition based on who has the most patience - NATO or Russia.

They seem to have nailed that prediction.

Ag with kids said:

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nortex97 said:

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I really think the irony is that Russia is net, for the oligarchs anyway, richer today and their military much stronger than before the war started, while Ukraine is demographically decimated. The Time article references the obvious graft/corruption in Kiev of 'aid' which betrays the obvious 'this is it, grab it while we still can' attitude of our 'allies.'

I'm sure they knew that when the pendulum in the US swung back to the GOP the unity over 'fighting evil Russians' would evaporate, or be caused to evaporate by another set of events. We've documented as much throughout this thread.

They are now a distant second priority (or third if China attacks Taiwan), and with Europe in the throws of violence from their moslem minority/invaders, no one has time for political descendants of the nazi's with their hands out continuously.

---

You keep saying their military is much stronger than before the war.

Why aren't they showing it? At the beginning of the war they got stopped before Kiev and pushed back (before all the aid started flowing in). They essentially got pushed to where the fronts are now.

Why doesn't this much stronger military just push right through now?

Please explain your logic.

---

I think I've posted the analyses supporting this around a dozen times in this thread since June, so in brief I'll just note that on the basis of materiel strength (ordinance, armor, etc), and as well uniformed personnel (400K more today than at the outset), to say nothing of experienced leadership (officers with combat experience vs. a 'rookie' standing army/just 'private military companies.').

Anyway, you don't have to take my analyses/sources at face value; in almost any/all metrics they are stronger today than in January 2022 (with limited exceptions such as perhaps KA-52 attack helicopters), and it's probably the case that once Avdeevka falls completely the Donbas front faces collapse from UFA's perspective. More significantly, has been an explosive growth in RU usage/employment/equipment/production of missiles and drones, whether Iranian, Chinese, or RU produced:

Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7 pic.twitter.com/8DYbnEY52L

— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) October 31, 2023

Another German Leopard 2 tank burned down in Ukraine. This time in the direction of Avdeevka...
That means Kiev shifted the newly created "NATO trained" forces there to stop RF advances pic.twitter.com/7kBSgOGTPC

— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) October 31, 2023

Long update;

Ukraine war update!

Russian troops fought off several Ukrainian counterattacks over the last week and continued to push their lines forward around Avdeevka, securing the quarry anchoring the center of the "southern intervisibility line" (previously a Ukrainian strongpoint) and… pic.twitter.com/RaplTAOk6u

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 31, 2023

(Minor quibble; there is no way they have established 'constant' AWACS coverage of the battlefields in Ukraine with the 17 theoretically available/produced aircraft. Realistically they might have 10 of their 'best' or most modernized frames in and about the theater and an ability to keep 2 or 3 active at a given time. These are not cutting edge aircraft though and their integration is likely not 'great' by any standard with aircraft though it might help coordinate missile defenses/drone strikes offensively.)

nortex97 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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nortex97 said:

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I really think the irony is that Russia is net, for the oligarchs anyway, richer today and their military much stronger than before the war started, while Ukraine is demographically decimated. The Time article references the obvious graft/corruption in Kiev of 'aid' which betrays the obvious 'this is it, grab it while we still can' attitude of our 'allies.'

I'm sure they knew that when the pendulum in the US swung back to the GOP the unity over 'fighting evil Russians' would evaporate, or be caused to evaporate by another set of events. We've documented as much throughout this thread.

They are now a distant second priority (or third if China attacks Taiwan), and with Europe in the throws of violence from their moslem minority/invaders, no one has time for political descendants of the nazi's with their hands out continuously.

---

You keep saying their military is much stronger than before the war.

Why aren't they showing it? At the beginning of the war they got stopped before Kiev and pushed back (before all the aid started flowing in). They essentially got pushed to where the fronts are now.

Why doesn't this much stronger military just push right through now?

Please explain your logic.

---

I think I've posted the analyses supporting this around a dozen times in this thread since June, so in brief I'll just note that on the basis of materiel strength (ordinance, armor, etc), and as well uniformed personnel (400K more today than at the outset), to say nothing of experienced leadership (officers with combat experience vs. a 'rookie' standing army/just 'private military companies.').

Anyway, you don't have to take my analyses/sources at face value; in almost any/all metrics they are stronger today than in January 2022 (with limited exceptions such as perhaps KA-52 attack helicopters), and it's probably the case that once Avdeevka falls completely the Donbas front faces collapse from UFA's perspective. More significantly, has been an explosive growth in RU usage/employment/equipment/production of missiles and drones, whether Iranian, Chinese, or RU produced:

Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7 pic.twitter.com/8DYbnEY52L

— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) October 31, 2023

Another German Leopard 2 tank burned down in Ukraine. This time in the direction of Avdeevka...
That means Kiev shifted the newly created "NATO trained" forces there to stop RF advances pic.twitter.com/7kBSgOGTPC

— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) October 31, 2023

Long update;

Ukraine war update!

Russian troops fought off several Ukrainian counterattacks over the last week and continued to push their lines forward around Avdeevka, securing the quarry anchoring the center of the "southern intervisibility line" (previously a Ukrainian strongpoint) and… pic.twitter.com/RaplTAOk6u

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 31, 2023

(Minor quibble; there is no way they have established 'constant' AWACS coverage of the battlefields in Ukraine with the 17 theoretically available/produced aircraft. Realistically they might have 10 of their 'best' or most modernized frames in and about the theater and an ability to keep 2 or 3 active at a given time. These are not cutting edge aircraft though and their integration is likely not 'great' by any standard with aircraft though it might help coordinate missile defenses/drone strikes offensively.)

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Interesting.

Russia spent over 1% of their GDP on just missile attacks on Ukraine.

But color me unimpressed that their much stronger military can't do any better than the much weaker one did a year and a half ago.

Not to mention their latest "offensive" has been completely stopped. It simply doesn't make sense that a "stronger" Russian military has no ability to mount a successful offensive at all.

Teslag said:

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Not to mention their latest "offensive" has been completely stopped. It simply doesn't make sense that a "stronger" Russian military has no ability to mount a successful offensive at all.

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Maybe they're just waiting to spring a trap with that ultra strong army when the Ukes least expect it?

Think about it. They keep dying and losing ordnance left and right which lulls the Ukes into thinking they're not super stronger. Then BOOM!

It's true I think they've spent a lot of their increased net GDP on weaponry production ramp up's. It's also substantially why their currency is a problem and unemployment is so low.

Again they are militarily much stronger than a couple years ago, and disposed via war of many of their 'most expendable' types, whether talking about the Prigozhin's or conscripts/prisoners etc. War is an ugly, horrible business. The folks who some see as enemies, the Russian 'elites' who basically run things behind the scenes there, have inarguably become enriched in this war/time.

Quote:

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Russia's economy shrank by 2.1 per cent in 2022 under the pressure of Western sanctions, but it was able to sell oil, metals and other natural resources to global markets, in particular to China, India and countries in the Middle East.

The International Monetary Fund this month raised its forecast for Russian growth in 2023 to 0.7 per cent from 0.3 per cent, but lowered its 2024 forecast to 1.3 per cent from 2.1 per cent, saying it also expected labour shortages and the exodus of Western companies to harm the country's economy.

The price of Urals oil, the lifeblood of the Russian economy, averaged $113.68 per barrel in 2022, up from $103.09 in 2021. Fertiliser prices were also high last year.

Andrei Melnichenko, who made a fortune in fertilisers, was listed as Russia's richest man by Forbes with an estimated worth of $37.65 billion, more than double what he was estimated to be worth last year.

Vladimir Potanin, president and biggest shareholder of palladium and nickel producer Nornickel, was ranked as the second-richest, with a fortune of $35.4 billion, while Vladimir Lisin, who controls steelmaker NLMK, was placed third with a fortune of $33 billion, after topping the list last year.

Mr Melnichenko, Mr Potanin and Mr Lisin could not be reached for immediate comment on their Forbes rankings.

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I'd again note that some Russian billionaires, including biden paymaster (former mayor of moscow's widow, who paid the Biden familia handsomely of course), and weapons manufacturers are exempt from American sanctions, strangely.

Some of those precious metals guys are also poised to do quite well with the EV push in the US/Europe. Strange how that works out, as even Zelensky's team has been lamenting the corruption in Ukraine to Time magazine, and the Russian oligarchs are also all getting richer in the war, as Americans have lost all interest in it, just as prognosticized to happen in this thread.

Quote:

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Again they are militarily much stronger than a couple years ago

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A stronger military would be showing it on the battlefield. At this point any claims of Russia being stronger should be taken with a grain of salt until they can do something. And without CAS now they are even more inept offensively then they were before ATACMS pushed their air assets further from the front. Russia and her allies in the state controlled media have always been very very good at pushing a message. The only problem comes when they have to actually perform. And as they found in Afghanistan 40 years ago, it's very hard to hide it when nothing goes your way on the battlefield.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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Again they are militarily much stronger than a couple years ago

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A stronger military would be showing it on the battlefield. At this point any claims of Russia being stronger should be taken with a grain of salt until they can do something. And without CAS now they are even more inept offensively then they were before ATACMS pushed their air assets further from the front. Russia and her allies in the state controlled media have always been very very good at pushing a message. The only problem comes when they have to actually perform. And as they found in Afghanistan 40 years ago, it's very hard to hide it when nothing goes your way on the battlefield.

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Your car guy is a tad miffed, fyi, about Ukraine.

Any idea who is pushing the politicians to do this?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 31, 2023

The Russians have taken more than the entire 'spring offensive' already.

UPDATE: When asked about bribes and corruption, a top Ukrainian presidential advisor tells Time that "People are stealing like there's no tomorrow." pic.twitter.com/SuRpdqCQiE

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 30, 2023

Zelensky’s own aides tell Time that he’s delusional and won’t listen to reality: “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
(H/t @aaronjmate) pic.twitter.com/vvAgUsJtkd

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 30, 2023

Is Time making it up that Zelensky is delusional, as part of some Russian propaganda?

It's not at a stalemate. Ukraine is losing, badly, and the outcome cannot be a victory for the UFA:

The idea that the war is “stalemated” is a fallback propaganda position. In reality, Ukraine is losing and headed for defeat. I don’t say this because I want it to happen. My point is that American policy is an abject failure and we should change course before it’s too late.

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 30, 2023

Quote:

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The idea that the war is "stalemated" is a fallback propaganda position. In reality, Ukraine is losing and headed for defeat.

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And I again, defeated by who and with what? There simply is no answer to that question as long as Russia can't mount an offensive. At all.

Ag with kids said:

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Teslag said:

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Not to mention their latest "offensive" has been completely stopped. It simply doesn't make sense that a "stronger" Russian military has no ability to mount a successful offensive at all.

---

Maybe they're just waiting to spring a trap with that ultra strong army when the Ukes least expect it?

Think about it. They keep dying and losing ordnance left and right which lulls the Ukes into thinking they're not super stronger. Then BOOM!

---

The Russians have also been slaughtered so badly in this latest "offensive" that they are back to using prisoner conscripts. Russia hasn't been able to coordinate a successful offensive since March of 2022. Remember the last one in Bakhmut was with a PMC that no longer exists and their leader pushed out of an airplane window.