Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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fka ftc
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So the EU guys are so much supportive of Ukraine that they break their own rules to continue to ban Ukraine grain in order to protect pricing of its members states.

Quote:

Extended once already, the ban expires on Sept. 15, but Poland and Hungary have pledged another extension in contravention of the EU's common trade rules with or without the European Commission's consent. Meanwhile, Ukraine has said it will sue the EU and member states at the World Trade Organization if they proceed with the import ban extension. (Ukraine previously accused Poland of violating WTO rules with its farm subsidies.)

Such an appeal would have no short-term effect, but it would trigger lengthy and complex negotiations that could be damaging to the EU in other areas. Specifically, the EU needs flexibility and unity to make the most of the global trade restructuring that is underway, but its attempts to strike new trade agreements could be hampered if it is simultaneously locked in a high-profile dispute with Ukraine
Source: Geopolitical Futures

Edit: Adding another blurb...
Quote:

At first, the war revived NATO and to a degree united the EU. Those effects appear to be fading as the economic costs accrue, especially for the EU. This wasn't unexpected; Central and Eastern Europe are naturally more concerned about the war in Ukraine than the rest of the Continent. Divisions old and new are appearing. Even the potential solutions appear to bypass the EU and entail cooperation among a smaller group.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
nortex97
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Yeah, the stuff happening in Africa is also related to this war. It will also directly impact the French' ability/willingness to keep sending money to fight the Russians.



What a pathetic farce this war is:

fka ftc
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nortex97 said:




What Blinkin means to say is "housing shortages will continue in the US due to our open borders and stalled developments as we invest heavily to ensure the sovereignty of other nations at the expense of the Country I swore an oath to protect. This includes sending millions of dollars in transformers that are severely limited in the US to instead go to help the Ukes build the best ever electric grid. To help rebuild, we have enlisted Robin Ware Construction and their consulting arm Rosemont Seneca as they are the only ones uniquely qualified to get this done."
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
Teslag
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Excellent news. Once Russia is at bay, and we have a permanent NATO presence in Ukraine, then the investment will flow into Ukraine and rebuild the country, their refugees will return, and Russia will be that much weaker.
Teslag
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-zelensky.html

After pushing past the Russian defensive lines in Robotyne and taking the city, the Ukes are now almost to Verbove. With 0.0 ability to mount an effective offensive the Russians have no choice but to lay mines and pray for the best aginst superior western weaponry, As western aid mounts and continues, the Russians are on borrowed time.


Quote:

In recent days, military analysts say, the Ukrainian Army has been battling to break through Russian positions near a village called Verbove, about six miles east of the village of Robotyne, which its fighters retook last week.

The Black Bird Group, a volunteer organization that analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said Monday that Ukrainian soldiers had cleared obstacles to reach Russian infantry fighting positions on the outskirts of Verbove.

A strategic target in this push appears to be the city of Tokmak, a road-and-rail hub about 15 miles south of Robotyne. To reach that city, Ukrainian forces would have to fully break through the defenses around Verbove and then breach additional layers.
nortex97
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None of this is for the Ukrainians being sacrificed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217
fka ftc
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nortex97 said:

None of this is for the Ukrainians being sacrificed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217
From your linked article:
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
Teslag
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nortex97 said:

None of this is for the Ukrainians being sacrificed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217


War cost lives. Every single death is the fault of one person, and one person alone and that's Putin. All those dead are alive if he doesn't invade in February of 2022.

And there's no way to disagree with that.
Teslag
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Also from the BBC



Pretty crazy to see what Russia has lost since March 2022
PlaneCrashGuy
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That map is still shocking to me. Just counting the colored pixels, its barely anything recaptured after all this time, money, and most importantly lives were flushed away for relatively intangible "gains".
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

That map is still shocking to me. Just counting the colored pixels, its barely anything recaptured after all this time, money, and most importantly lives were flushed away for relatively intangible "gains".


Barely anyting?

Prior to the 2022 invasion Russia controlled 16,000 sq miles of ukriane. After the invasion that rose to a height of 46,000 sq miles. About 28,000 sq miles now is under Russian control. Which means that by fighting back with western assistance Ukraine has managed to liberate almost 60% of Russia's gains from the 2022 invasion.

60% is significant any way you slice it.
fka ftc
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Correct, if you look at that map and ask is red or purple winning, there is only one answer.

Russia failed with the take Kiev and the rest will fall scenario and now is pushing across.

That is actually better for Russia and Ukraine as it allows for the potential to just draw a new border, something that part of the world has been doing for centuries.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
PlaneCrashGuy
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Its also making me realize(by doing some basic estimations based on pixels and days since each sides began) its mathematically impossible for "offensive" to mean the same thing for the two sides.

I'm not at my computer so I can't run the tape rn, but I'd estimate Russia's averaged 2-3x in "pixels per day". Talking red vs purple on that BBC map.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Teslag
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fka ftc said:

Correct, if you look at that map and ask is red or purple winning, there is only one answer.

Russia failed with the take Kiev and the rest will fall scenario and now is pushing across.

That is actually better for Russia and Ukraine as it allows for the potential to just draw a new border, something that part of the world has been doing for centuries.


Now do the maps since March 2022. And Russias goal isn't to draw a new border at the current lines. If they did I'd actually be okay with that.
10thYrSr
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Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

None of this is for the Ukrainians being sacrificed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217


War cost lives. Every single death is the fault of one person, and one person alone and that's Putin. All those dead are alive if he doesn't invade in February of 2022.

And there's no way to disagree with that.


I can disagree with that. The fact that the US and other countries have propped up Ukraine has cost more lives than an early defeated Ukraine. Are you worried about lives, or are you worried about the sovereignty of Ukraine? Pick one.
Teslag
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Give me liberty or give me death.
Teslag
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And it's not like the Uke's would have laid down. They had pretty much stalled Russia in March of 2022 before we even got involved. Their success alone is what led us to even start helping. They obviously felt lying down like a eunuch wasn't preferable.
PlaneCrashGuy
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To be fair to the other guy, nuance doesn't sound as good on a message board so its forgivable that he refuses to use it, I suppose.

But you're exactly right. And the problem with trying to make that calculation of sovereignty vs Ukrainian lives is that it requires a Uke (some poor shmuck, yokel, serf, etc) to stand up and say "okay damnit give me liberty or give me death."

And we have documented in this thread how Uke is starting to run out of men willing to say that, so they are now turning to women and refugees elsewhere in the EU.

But even if they had plenty of men willing to stand up and fight w/o needing to be deported back to Uke, Putin shows us everyday he's okay to answer "Only those 2 options? Well it wont be liberty"

Its actually quite tragic this had to happen. But as most regulars in this thread know, its never as simple as they want to pretend. Remain vigilant and wary of oversimplifications, especially if you see a pattern of them from one side.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
10thYrSr
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Teslag said:

Give me liberty or give me death.


So you are concerned with the continuation of the nation of Ukraine despite the death toll?
10thYrSr
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. But as most regulars in this thread know, its never as simple as they want to pretend. Remain vigilant and wary of oversimplifications, especially if you see a pattern of them from one side.


Can you expound on this. I'm not quite sure I get your point.
fka ftc
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Teslag said:

fka ftc said:

Correct, if you look at that map and ask is red or purple winning, there is only one answer.

Russia failed with the take Kiev and the rest will fall scenario and now is pushing across.

That is actually better for Russia and Ukraine as it allows for the potential to just draw a new border, something that part of the world has been doing for centuries.


Now do the maps since March 2022. And Russias goal isn't to draw a new border at the current lines. If they did I'd actually be okay with that.


You do the maps hombre. Not my point to prove.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
PlaneCrashGuy
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It just means that it is not as simple as "all Putin's
fault". Also, most people I see banging that drum will also oversimplify other aspects of the war. Vigilance is the antidote.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
10thYrSr
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10thYrSr said:

Teslag said:

Give me liberty or give me death.


So you are concerned with the continuation of the nation of Ukraine despite the death toll?


No reply yet. Looking forward to it.
Teslag
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Quote:

And we have documented in this thread how Uke is starting to run out of men willing to say that, so they are now turning to women and refugees elsewhere in the EU.

Documented by who? Russian milbloggers?
Teslag
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10thYrSr said:

10thYrSr said:

Teslag said:

Give me liberty or give me death.


So you are concerned with the continuation of the nation of Ukraine despite the death toll?


No reply yet. Looking forward to it.

Of course. That's how fighting against subjugation works. Odd that you don't hold Russia to this same standard.


Very odd...
PlaneCrashGuy
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Incase you missed it the 1st time.

I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Incase you missed it the 1st time.



Well who can argue with this massive sample size.
nortex97
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Euro's keep feeling the pain of Biden's war:



I guess the bloggers were right about the drop off in storm shadow inventory/attacks, after that early August attack on the Fencer base:



More liberal wonderful treatment of citizens in Ukraine by recruiters:



It sounds like another air defense missile gone 'rogue' injured/killed several in Konstantinovka, though of course the propagandists are lying about it being a Russian strike;







Teslag
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Quote:

though of course the propagandists are lying about it being a Russian strike;


What exactly would you call Lord Bebo?
10thYrSr
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Teslag said:

Quote:

though of course the propagandists are lying about it being a Russian strike;


What exactly would you call Lord Bebo?


We all choose our flavor of propaganda since there appears to be no neutral source of information that we can all agree on. The death of "journalism" has left us all arguing over perceived truth.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Quote:

We all choose our flavor of propaganda since there appears to be no neutral source of information that we can all agree on.
Agreed on this.
GAC06
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"Lord Bebo" is just making **** up. He saw a grey blob and just decided it's a HARM. Maybe don't listen to idiots that make stuff up.
nortex97
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About right.

Elon is/was as well:









So, things continue to go 'as expected' in the Biden proxy war.

1945: …no reasonable basis to conclude Ukraine can come out on top.

Quote:

If a rational, unemotional analysis of the balance of power between Russia (with its few supporters) and Ukraine (with the support of 50 nations) suggested a valid path for Ukraine to achieve Zelensky's objectives via military means, it would be reasonable for the United States to continue supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces "for as long as it takes." Not that there would need to be a guarantee of success. Perhaps as little as a 25% chance of success would be enough. Fully committed nations and soldiers have sometimes succeeded against great odds.

But those cases are rare.

The vast majority of major wars have predictably been won by the side that holds the most fundamentals of combat power on its side. In this case, that means Russia.

Cathal J. Nolan, author of the 2017 book The Allure of Battle: A History of How Wars have been Won and Lost, argues that his research of studying wars over many centuries reveals that most major state-on-state conflicts are not decided by which side is in the moral right, which has the highest morale, or even which side employs the best commanders. "Wars are won by grinding, not by genius," Nolan explained.

"Celebration of genius generals encourages the delusion that modern wars will be short and won quickly," he explained, "when they are most often long wars of attrition. Most people believe attrition is immoral. Yet it's how most major wars are won."

Similarly, a 2015 Naval Postgraduate study analyzed more than 600 battles around the world from the 15th through the 20th centuries. The researchers found that force ratios the side with more troops and equipment were one of the biggest factors in determining the winner. The study also found that in the latter centuries, the side with more artillery, and in the 20th century the side with more tanks, tended to win. Russia has more available troops, more tanks, and more artillery than Ukraine can likely ever field (not to mention an enduring advantage in air power and air defense).
Fans of the war (of course I am sure we don't have any on this site) should consider such sobering analyses, imho.
Quote:

Based on historical precedent, then, the longer this war continues, the greater will be the chance that Russia wins. This owes nothing to brilliance or superiority in fighting ability. Rather, the conclusion rests on the banal calculation of the vast superiority of Russia's natural and human resources over those of Ukraine. Russia has a population that is now five to seven times greater than Ukraine's (owing to lost territories and to people who have fled Ukraine). Though sanctions have had a limiting effect on Moscow's ability to produce weapons and ammunition, Russia still has a robust military industrial capacity that is likely to grow over time.

If this war simply grinds into an attrition contest, and if both Zelensky and Putin decide to continue fighting, there is no rational basis to suggest Ukraine can come out on top. Put bluntly, to continue supporting Ukraine in a war of attrition against Russia is likely to condemn tens or even hundreds of thousands of more Ukrainian lives, invite the destruction of yet more Ukrainian cities, and in the ultimate end, yield a military victory to Putin.

If nothing more, the West should be highly motivated to bring this conflict to an end in a negotiated settlement in which Putin will have to settle for less than his maximalist demands. But morally, the West should not continue to press forward in a vain attempt to accomplish the militarily unattainable objective of a Ukraine victory especially when such support will most likely result only in the pointless loss of Ukrainian lives and territories.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I am 110% here for Elon Musk putting Uke in its place to prevent escalation. That is a great read on a Friday morning.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
nortex97
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Since this is the designated political discussion thread it's interesting the conservative Babylon bee is noting/using the obvious…waste of US funding going to Ukraine:



This is also a good question: were all (or almost all) of those Ukrainian flags that went up in early 2022 in big city virtue signaling made in China?

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