Teslag said:

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Robert L. Peters said:

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The covidiot most certainly became the Ukraine idiot. The whole Ukraine thing was/is a massive psy-op.

But don't worry, when Ukraine runs out of willing/forced male fighters, the machine will be coming for our youth.

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The "Ukraine thing" exists because of one thing. Russia and Putin wanted to possess another country. Nothing more nothing less.

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And the color revolution had nothing to do with it. Where was the outrage when they took Crimea?

As I recall, this board was mostly making fun of Obama over it. Lots of Putin memes. "Crimea river" and such.

I think I see the point you are both making. The hypocrisy of using changes in Russian leadership to declare victory while ignoring the same implications for changes on the Uke side is self evident.

But I wonder if his departure is related to their plan to begin to mobilize women. Perhaps Oleksii was unwilling to accept such a course of action? I'd oppose that idea too. But maybe I'm making connections that aren't there.

Either way, I also wonder what will "life after retirement" look like for him? Does he serve elsewhere in another capacity? Leave the country?

‼️🚨BREAKING:

First burning Challenger! pic.twitter.com/Rp6iQgHluK

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) September 5, 2023

1 or 2 challenger tanks were lost overnight, it appears.

‘Boyets’s unit [Skala battalion] has already been reduced by casualties to 25% of its original strength since joining counteroffensive operations around the axis towards Robotyne in July, and the life expectancy of storm units is the shortest on the front’ https://t.co/0QEvwjCPB7

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 4, 2023

"We believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time," Erdogan said at the news conference held with Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi. https://t.co/MiFi3y9CRd

— The National Desk (@TND) September 5, 2023

The Atlantic: US and Europe are splitting (blames GOP).

Quote:

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The past few weeks have revealed that Trump's pro-Russian, anti-NATO outlook isn't just a brief interlude in Republican politics; suspicion of American involvement in supporting Ukraine is now the consensus of the party's populist heart. During last week's GOP presidential debate, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamythe two candidates most intent on appealing to the party's new Trumpist baseboth argued against more aid for Ukraine. DeSantis did so softly, by vowing to make any more aid conditional on greater European assistance and saying he'd rather send troops to the U.S.-Mexico border.

Ramaswamy was more strident: He described the current situation as "disastrous" and called for a complete and immediate cessation of U.S. support for Ukraine. Ramaswamy later went even further, basically saying that Ukraine should be cut up; Vladimir Putin would get to keep a large part of the country. Trump did not take part in the debate, but he has previously downplayed America's interest in a Ukrainian victory and has seemed to favor territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia. He, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy are all playing to the same voterswho, polls suggest, make up about three-quarters of the Republican electorate.

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Yep.

Roger Boyd: Ukraine a country of old and damaged men.

Quote:

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Between the economic emigration of previous decades, the more recent conflict driven emigration and the populations now within the control of Russia, the Ukrainian government-controlled population of Ukraine is probably down to about 20 million people. This population will be heavily skewed toward the older generations and the less able and the less skilled as the young, able and skilled are much more mobile and ready to leave for better things. A further factor that will affect the average age of the remaining population is the crash in live births in the early 1990s, following Ukrainian independence. This has resulted in the 18-30 population being much smaller than it would otherwise have been.

…

Facing them will be a core of many hundreds of thousands of war-experienced and well-equipped Russian troops, together with hundreds of thousands more that have undergone many months of training in addition to their prior compulsory military service. The Ukrainian army is quite probably within 6-12 months of total exhaustion and collapse, if even Ukrainian society maintains some level of stability for that long. It is in the interests of Russia to fight a war of attrition (with losses running up to 10 to 1 in its favour) until the moment of collapse arrives, as any campaign launched after that time will be many times easier and produce much lower levels of Russian losses. The other possibility is that individual Ukrainian senior officers, or groups of them, may see what is coming and start to defect to the Russians and/or plan the overthrow of Zelensky and his Western handlers. The next 6-12 months promise to be much more fluid than the previous period.

The sad end result may be a much-diminished Ukrainian population with very few able-bodied skilled men in their prime years of life (18-50) left, with many of the remaining able-bodied psychologically scarred; a nation of old and damaged men. As the Russian victory becomes obvious, the hard-core Banderist areas in the North West of Ukraine will probably undergo another surge of emigration; reducing the population even more. The fallback option in the case of such a Russian victory for the Western elites will be to destroy as much of Ukraine, including its remaining population, as possible; delivering a somewhat Pyrrhic victory, while killing and maiming as many Russians as possible. Unfortunately, the Western elites may mostly get their way for their fallback plan, apart from the masses of Russian military dead and injured that is one of their main objectives.

The populations of the Baltic States, the Taiwanese, the Finns and the Poles should take note before they are set up as the next sacrificial lambs by the Western elites.

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Location on the map. This is quite close to the location of an earlier, unsuccessful Russian attack so it seems the Russians regrouped and gave it another shot. pic.twitter.com/KrXYXKqqla

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) September 4, 2023

All sorts of exemptions are no longer recognized in the Ukrainian full mobilization/desperation:

Quote:

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Reportedly, one Ukrainian deputy even proposed a bill to reduce the draft age to 17, so they can begin harvesting up all those young teens for the slaughter:

Quote:

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The deputy from the Ukrainian party "European Solidarity" Sofya Fedina submitted a bill to reduce the draft age to 17 years
While we are talking about military service, but it is well known that after its completion, soldiers are not allowed to go home, referring to "martial law".
This is illegal, because officially Ukraine is not waging war. Nevertheless, young guys are forced to sign a contract with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in various ways, and several cases of suicide have already been known when Ukrainians who did not want to fight chose such an extreme measure.
17 years old is still teenagers. And now they will be sent to the front.

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And there's reports that mass prisoners are being released from the west of Ukraine and used to replenish losses in the ongoing offensive.

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UFA are close to the first line of defense, I guess, in the 'fire bag.'

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By the way, you can use this map to follow along. You see that double layered line there? The first one under the red circle, which they claimed to have "breached" is a tank ditch.
The breach was supposedly thus far just a forward scouting unit that basically attempted to "sneak" past the line but was repelled by artillery, suffering heavy losses as per the video above.
They barely even have the equipment to breach the actual tank ditches and dragon's teeth there, which is why they're simply sending meat assaults on foot to get blasted apart.
In fact, their Leopard and other heavy tank breachers in general have taken such attrition that, in a serious downgrade, they're now apparently rolling out MRAP MaxxPro breachers:
…
So, have they really "breached" the first Surovikin line? I'd say no. They're simply sending barely armed cannonfodder to die right on top of what is hardly even construed as the line.
However, there are indications that they are trying to refit and gather a new armored fist to make another attempt to punch through. They're still collecting their broken units in the rear, reconstituting the destroyed brigades from the last attempt. The rumor is now the following:

How they are planning the "breach" to work is, they are now sending territorial defense type of low grade meat assault units to try to make a breakthrough while keeping their good brigades, the 82nd, 47th, etc., back in the rear, waiting with the Challenger 2 and Leopard tanks. Once the meat units pile up enough of their own corpses on the Surovikin line to constitute a "break through", they intend to send the band-aid-and-banana-peel-held-together main brigades through.

The other component of the "strategy" is that these territorial meat units whose only objective is to just die on the 1st line, are meant to "exhaust" the Russian defenders, rather than actually break through in any meaningful way.

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When a nuclear-armed adversary threatens to nuke us, we should be concerned. This is just one of many reasons why I insist that, if we’re not prepared to go to war with Russia, we have no business funding a proxy war against Russia. https://t.co/i6zCAUM1SP

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) September 5, 2023

He's right, you know.

nortex97 said:

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I think they are going to just go ahead and conscript women too, next month.

Ukraine is preparing to mobilize women

▪️From October 1, 2023, medical and pharmaceutical workers will be required to register at military registration and enlistment offices.
▪️ Women liable for military service are assigned the same duties as men, they must: register for… pic.twitter.com/L6cXxxYyPl

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) September 4, 2023

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That's death knell. Why can't Biden and Teslag just admit it's over?

They should have required women registration from the beginning. And with Russia completely unable to moutn an offensive, there's no reason to even negotiate peace it this time. Time is on the Uke's side here with the western weapon tap wide open and not ending in the foreseeable future.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9

Russia now a dying country, and they are also losing not just on the battlefield but now their best and brightest are leaving in the country in droves. Their military R&D is already in shambles and this wont' help as western weapons continue to strangle the paper tiger.

Quote:

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Since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022, emigration out of Russia has exploded, with some estimates putting the exodus at 1 million people. A recent analysis from the policy platform Re: Russia narrowed the number to 817,000-922,000.
That's contributed to a record labor shortage, with 42% of industrial firms unable to find enough workers in July, up from 35% in April.
The composition of Russia's exodus also points to the best and brightest fleeing the country. While a barrage of Western sanctions incentivized many to leave for economic reasons, others fled to avoid military service, skewing the numbers toward younger Russians.

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Quote:

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Without migration to fill the labor gap, and paired with declining birth rates, the Russian economy is expected to shrink.

In fact, the Atlantic Council estimated that Russia's GDP, as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will fall behind Indonesia's in 2026, nearly two years earlier than would've been the case had Putin not launched his war on Ukraine. By then, they will switch places as the world's sixth and seventh largest economies by PPP.

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Maybe Indonesia can replace Russia in the all powerful BRICS.

Teslag said:

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They should have required women registration from the beginning. And with Russia completely unable to moutn an offensive, there's no reason to even negotiate peace it this time. Time is on the Uke's side here with the western weapon tap wide open and not ending in the foreseeable future.

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Speaking of desperation: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66715773.amp

Quote:

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The Cuban foreign ministry says it has uncovered a human trafficking ring aimed at recruiting Cubans to fight for Russia in its war in Ukraine.
It said that Cubans living in Russia and "even some in Cuba" had been "incorporated into the military forces taking part in the war in Ukraine".
Cuba is a close ally of Russia, but it stressed in its statement "it does not form part of the conflict in Ukraine".

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Yep. The side facility human trafficking for bodies, and conscripting prisoners is totally winning and not desperate at all.

I guess the Russians aren't completely out of munitions since they are also striking 'rebels' in Syria…

#Syria: In addition to Russian airstrikes, Syrian government forces recently intensified its artillery shelling of rebel-held areas in southern countryside of Idlib Governorate. https://t.co/P4CEGIUw65 pic.twitter.com/PrqKpXdQjG

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 5, 2023

This was heavily mocked but probably not as rock-stupid as some had hoped/guessed:

Reference 1:https://t.co/h0pzrmxuEe

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) September 5, 2023

Bears are fairly huge aircraft, and they don't have hangars/shelters for the vast majority/any of them, I believe.

"Imagine if the voters in this or that state see that there are very visible corruption scandals in the country to which the aid is directed. This is a huge blow to the reputation of this state," he said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 5, 2023

Big shocker.

I'm kinda surprised Hunter Biden doesn't have an actual 'job' right now in Ukraine, given the 'anti-corruption' efforts and latest hires…

The fact that Ukraine traded a corrupt bobblehead for a freak that likes to masturbate on video for the position of Defense Minister to create optics of a fight against corruption is quite hilarious and perfectly illustrates how inept Zelensky and his criminal junta really are. pic.twitter.com/YW3RUqUixv

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) September 5, 2023

Quote:

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I guess the Russians aren't completely out of munitions since they are also striking 'rebels' in Syria…

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They might as well use them somewhere since they can't operate them in Ukraine armed with western air defense.

Also interesting you'd bring up Lithuanian officials who said this last week when the country opposed any peace negotiation...

Quote:

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"What do we need to do? Plan for Ukrainian victory. Not plan to stand with Ukraine 'as long as it needs, as long as it requires,'" Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said during a conference in Spain last week.

"Plan for victory, they need to win, they need to win for us."

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Interesting take from Geopolitical Futures on the defense minister.

Quote:

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Even so, the move is less about the concern Zelenskyy felt for his defense minister and more about the fact Ukraine has reached a critical stage in the war.


It is so critical, in fact, that a group of senior U.S. generals met with Ukrainian generals on the border with Poland. The meeting was held there to validate the claim that U.S. forces are not involved in Ukraine proper, which is both true and false. U.S. forces are not in Ukraine, but logistical support and strategic advice have been generous. Coupled with the defense minister's replacement, the message the U.S. delivered was that Ukrainian strategy was going to fail, and a new strategy had to be adopted. Clearly, Zelenskyy listened.

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Adding... the overall article where this comes from is positive on where Ukraine is but in the context of 'they have done better than one would have initially thought' whilst also getting into the change in strategy being needed or their efforts ultimately will fall.

Should be an interesting winter over there. Which we would use those billions of dollars here to improve the education of our kids, keep our poor and elderly warm and fed, and secure out southern border.

Interesting political twist if accurate. I have no idea if so.

Quote:

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Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies:
Erdogan has lost Putin's trust. Erdogan's "special mission" has failed.

Putin said that Moscow had practically agreed on grain with a number of African states (without any help from Ankara). That Qatar is ready to support the deal with financial guarantees and control of deliveries to the necessary countries (the Turks are not trusted). And there are more than enough mediators on the Ukrainian issue: China and the African Union are there... That is, Erdogan is just one of many.
But this is at best. And at worst, the meeting in Sochi showed that the president of Turkey has lost Moscow's trust. After all, it was "Sultan" who acted as the guarantor of the previous "grain deal" - and failed it in key positions. When the grain went to speculators from Europe and the USA, and not to the poor countries of Africa and Asia. And when Kiev took advantage of the grain corridor for attacks on Russia. So Putin's phrase "This can't be tolerated any longer" didn't even apply to Ukraine, but to Erdogan. I played missionary, and that's enough. To behave according to the principle "both ours and yours" will no longer work. In response, Erdogan only had to say "Thank you" in Russian, promise to grind a million tons of Russian grain into flour for Africa and squeeze out of himself to Kiev: "Ukraine needs to soften its approach, especially at the present time."

So the "special mission" of the Turkish president was failed. And those wishing to reach an agreement received an important signal: any agreements with Russia are possible only on Russia's terms.

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I think sending those Azov parolees back did not play well in Moscow.

And Erdogan let the Azov parolees break parole and return to Kiev.

— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) September 5, 2023

Gotta go, the cannon needs a lot more fodder:

The “brave” Ukrainians who ran away when the war began are now receiving letters saying they will be forcibly deported from the EU back to Ukraine if they do not leave the European Union on their own within two weeks.

It must’ve been nice cheering for Ukraine on social media for… pic.twitter.com/islniO1ST4

— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) September 5, 2023

Both sides looking to 'stack bodies' by any means available:

Ukrainian servicemen from the "Da Vinci Wolves" Battalion showcase a domestic-made unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), unofficially called "Dr. Death."

It's equipped with a "Saber" combat module with 7.62mm machine gun, installed on the chassis named "Lynx."

You can watch full video… pic.twitter.com/KbBp9R0D6X

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 5, 2023

The centralized censorship of 'disinformation' by our Government of non-approved narratives has been wide and pernicious, including about the beloved proxy war.

Who else has the left-wing CCDH attacked?@realDailyWire@realchrisfrufo@libsoftiktok@JackPosobiec@Timcast@BreitbartNews@NEWSMAX@townhallcom@theMRC@RepMTG@WashTimes

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) September 5, 2023

So its obvious to feel bad for the Ukes, the simpletons, duped into joining "the cause" by relentless propaganda. But I don't know if I should feel better or worse about that gentlemen being conscripted after seeking refuge abroad. On the one hand he was smart enough to see it for what it was and leave. On the other hand, why should he get to live in refuge abroad when so many of his people have been put in the blender by his leadership?

War is awful, man.

Quote:

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On the one hand he was smart enough to see it for what it was and leave.

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That's one way to describe an abject coward.

fka ftc said:

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[Post information without jabs at other users. -Staff]

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Good job staff! Your job is difficult, but as long as you enforce the rules evenly there should be no complaints from either side.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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On the one hand he was smart enough to see it for what it was and leave.

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That's one way to describe an abject coward.

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How would you describe one stalwart enough to support it and remain in the face of overwhelming evidence?

I think the proper name for that condition is "low IQ" but most people just say stupid.

Ok joking aside: I think some folks attach a sense of valor to what is really just suicide by combat. And I suppose you could argue in some instances it is murder. Like our friend from earlier who is being brought home to be sent to die. When it comes down to it, he'll jump out of the trench because death is slightly less certain on the other side than it is from the barrel poking him in the back; so to speak.

Davy Crockett, Williams Travis, Jim Bowie and the rest of the Alamo defenders were low IQ? Just stupid fools who committed "suicide"? Were they "murdered" by Sam Houston? History is full of those who have stood their ground against a foreign invader. Not sure id call it low iq.

nortex97 said:

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Interesting political twist if accurate. I have no idea if so.

Quote:

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Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies:
Erdogan has lost Putin's trust. Erdogan's "special mission" has failed.

Putin said that Moscow had practically agreed on grain with a number of African states (without any help from Ankara). That Qatar is ready to support the deal with financial guarantees and control of deliveries to the necessary countries (the Turks are not trusted). And there are more than enough mediators on the Ukrainian issue: China and the African Union are there... That is, Erdogan is just one of many.
But this is at best. And at worst, the meeting in Sochi showed that the president of Turkey has lost Moscow's trust. After all, it was "Sultan" who acted as the guarantor of the previous "grain deal" - and failed it in key positions. When the grain went to speculators from Europe and the USA, and not to the poor countries of Africa and Asia. And when Kiev took advantage of the grain corridor for attacks on Russia. So Putin's phrase "This can't be tolerated any longer" didn't even apply to Ukraine, but to Erdogan. I played missionary, and that's enough. To behave according to the principle "both ours and yours" will no longer work. In response, Erdogan only had to say "Thank you" in Russian, promise to grind a million tons of Russian grain into flour for Africa and squeeze out of himself to Kiev: "Ukraine needs to soften its approach, especially at the present time."

So the "special mission" of the Turkish president was failed. And those wishing to reach an agreement received an important signal: any agreements with Russia are possible only on Russia's terms.

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I think sending those Azov parolees back did not play well in Moscow.

And Erdogan let the Azov parolees break parole and return to Kiev.

— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) September 5, 2023

Gotta go, the cannon needs a lot more fodder:

The “brave” Ukrainians who ran away when the war began are now receiving letters saying they will be forcibly deported from the EU back to Ukraine if they do not leave the European Union on their own within two weeks.

It must’ve been nice cheering for Ukraine on social media for… pic.twitter.com/islniO1ST4

— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) September 5, 2023

Both sides looking to 'stack bodies' by any means available:

Ukrainian servicemen from the "Da Vinci Wolves" Battalion showcase a domestic-made unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), unofficially called "Dr. Death."

It's equipped with a "Saber" combat module with 7.62mm machine gun, installed on the chassis named "Lynx."

You can watch full video… pic.twitter.com/KbBp9R0D6X

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 5, 2023

The centralized censorship of 'disinformation' by our Government of non-approved narratives has been wide and pernicious, including about the beloved proxy war.

Who else has the left-wing CCDH attacked?@realDailyWire@realchrisfrufo@libsoftiktok@JackPosobiec@Timcast@BreitbartNews@NEWSMAX@townhallcom@theMRC@RepMTG@WashTimes

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) September 5, 2023

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There is a lot of truth in that post. What I have been saying for the longest time is that Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to manufacture a stalemate with Russia, and the rest of the world should know that. This war is lost, and there is no way Ukraine can survive even if they agree to stop the war and cede positions as is.

No other nations are coming to help them and dumping resources into a war where there is nobody to take advantage of those resources is a losing battle.

Teslag said:

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Davy Crockett, Williams Travis, Jim Bowie and the rest of the Alamo defenders were low IQ? Just stupid fools who committed "suicide"? Were they "murdered" by Sam Houston? History is full of those who have stood their ground against a foreign invader. Not sure id call it low iq.

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No, they were buying time for the reinforcement they knew were coming. What reinforcement does Ukraine have?

This post is relevant to the current situation in Ukraine. They may be acting like the Alamo, but you don't know your history if you don't think they were doing anything but stalling for time.

Ukraine has no such ambition. There is no army on the way to rescue them.

The reinforcements weren't coming.

GAC06 said:

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The reinforcements weren't coming.

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Thanks for letting me know you don't know Texas history. Please don't derail any further.

Uh, I do know the history. They weren't meaningfully reinforced and the Alamo fell.

The Alamo isn't a great analogy here anyway though because the Mexican army was an overwhelming force compared to the garrison of the Alamo. That's not the case anymore in regards to Ukraine and Russia.

GAC06 said:

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Uh, I do know the history. They weren't meaningfully reinforced and the Alamo fell.

The Alamo isn't a great analogy here anyway though because the Mexican army was an overwhelming force compared to the garrison of the Alamo. That's not the case anymore in regards to Ukraine and Russia.

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You should start a thread about it if you want to continue the discussion. I'd be happy to join in.

On March 3rd the garrison of the Alamo knew that Fannin wasn't coming. The same day the Mexican army was significantly reinforced. They knew from then for sure they were facing hopeless odds.

Sorry you don't like me continuing the discussion you participated in. Maybe staff will delete this if it's off topic like you are deleted almost every night pathetically trolling the tactical updates thread.

10thYrSr said:

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Teslag said:

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Davy Crockett, Williams Travis, Jim Bowie and the rest of the Alamo defenders were low IQ? Just stupid fools who committed "suicide"? Were they "murdered" by Sam Houston? History is full of those who have stood their ground against a foreign invader. Not sure id call it low iq.

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No, they were buying time for the reinforcement they knew were coming. What reinforcement does Ukraine have?

This post is relevant to the current situation in Ukraine. They may be acting like the Alamo, but you don't know your history if you don't think they were doing anything but stalling for time.

Ukraine has no such ambition. There is no army on the way to rescue them.

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Ukraine doesn't need reinforcements since the Russians have no ability to go on the offensive. All they need is western weapons and time.

1st and 2nd hand reports seem to indicate the Russians know what they are doing, and the nato training was…inadequate.

My thoughts regarding the issues reported by the @KyivIndependent article about the evaluation of NATO training and the 32nd Mechanized Brigade.

Please consider this text as a supplementary piece interjected with opinions - my own and those I spoke to in the field.

I got in… pic.twitter.com/PCkBk6XEbi

— ✙🍒 Constantine 🍒✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) September 5, 2023

‼️ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Members of a Ukrainian storm group in Rabotino say 75% of their unit has been WIPED OUT since June

“Ninety per cent of the guys here will die too” - they say as they receive orders for the night assault

A Ukrainian medic: “six nights ago we got a mission to get the… pic.twitter.com/oheP244T0F

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) September 5, 2023

The EU: we must say no to Russian oil and gas!

Also the EU: pic.twitter.com/AOs6LU37ZD

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) September 5, 2023

Meanwhile…the five or six farms called "Robotyne" apparently are no longer in Ukrainian controlled territory.

🚨‼️ Russian units counterattacked Robotyne yesterday.

The Russian army was able to push the AFU back out of Robotyne. The previously lost southern outskirts are returned.

This happened during a rotation and assault preparation of the AFU. Which was disturbed and canceled.… https://t.co/pdpi5iOFLS pic.twitter.com/XZeJM4GzXv

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) September 6, 2023

BRICS expansion might make their alliance more impactful than OPEC in driving world oil prices: Saudi's and Russia announce production cuts. Meanwhile, poopy pants bans transporting LNG via rail in the US.

The Russians "retook" robotyne while at the same tried it save face for getting run out of the city by claiming to "tactically withdraw".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-tactically-withdrew-ukraines-robotyne-official-says-2023-09-06/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-tactically-abandoned-robotyne-before-it-fell-to-ukraine-official-claims

The ukes have now pushed past Robotyne and the Russians are ****ting bricks, the masonry kind not the feeble kind back by the worthless ruble, because the entire south will soon be a himar thunderstorm.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-reports-frontline-success-russian-minister-decries-kyivs-failure-2023-09-06/

Putin, the feeble dictator who once posed shirtless on a horse, is now begging Best Korea for artillery and weapons in the face of united western aid and superior weaponry. I guess desperate times call for desperate measures.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-kim-russia-putin-meet-talk-arms-deal-heats-up-report.amp

Quote:

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Putin wants North Korea to supply Russia with artillery shells and antitank missiles. In exchange, Kim wants Russia to give North Korea advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, sources told the Times. Additionally, Kim wants food aid for his starving nation.

---

Richard Stephen Hack responded to Simplicius' update yesterday as follows:

Quote:

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Response to Simplicius' "SITREP 9/4/23: First Challengers Burn as East Continues to Rise in Power".
The BBC video says "everyone has lost someone". The Ukrainian International Institute for Sociology poll reported the average losses PER FAMILY are three killed and 5-7 wounded. This is why I use that figure to estimate the KIA to WIA ratio as 1.67.

As for Russia "absorbing" Ukraine and shifting the capital to Kiev - the former is true, the latter is risible. The former is necessary because no piece of Ukraine can be allowed to remain independent - and part of NATO - to cause trouble in the future. That should be obvious, but apparently it isn't to most commentators who still hallucinate that Russia will stop at the Dnieper.

Plus, as I am on record repeatedly, Russia needs western Ukraine in order to place a Military District there to counter the NATO buildup and Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania. We know that will happen because that is what Russia is doing in Belarus and in western Russia further north to counter Finland. Russia will build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic.

Finally, as to Ukraine's "mobilization", that is a joke. It doesn't matter if they take babies from their cribs and send them to the front lines (and I wouldn't put it past them). Sending civilians armed with AKs merely increases the kill ratio. Mass assaults don't work with today's weapons systems. People should remember the Iran-Iraq war where Iran tried that. Iraq emplaced anti-aircraft guns with barrels deployed down and simply mowed the Iranians down. Russia can do much better than that with modern weapons systems. So people imagining that Ukraine can "continue the war" with "massed mobilization" are delusional. As Simplicius rightly points out, once the armor, artillery and ammunition are done for, it's over.

I stand by my view that the Ukraine army will collapse within the next 3-6 months, winter rain and snow not withstanding. After that, Russia will advance - probably slowly - to roll up the front line, force Ukraine to retreat to the other side of the Dnieper, then consolidate their forces into a 500,000+ strong army, then steamroller their way to Kiev. It will be over by summer, 2024, if not sooner. This is not going to be a years long war.

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Personally, I'm more of a 'middle ground' believer that this will drag on through our election season for obvious reasons.

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As for Russia "absorbing" Ukraine and shifting the capital to Kiev - the former is true, the latter is risible. The former is necessary because no piece of Ukraine can be allowed to remain independent - and part of NATO - to cause trouble in the future. That should be obvious, but apparently it isn't to most commentators who still hallucinate that Russia will stop at the Dnieper.

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If this is Russias intent then any calls for peace are pointless. If Russia doesn't want peace then Ukraine only has two options, fight back with superior nato weaponry or subjugation.

Source commentary: The Realists Were Right.

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Eighteen months into the war in Ukraine the breathless hype that characterised early media coverage has curdled into doom. This is the deepest trough of despair that the wartime media has entered yet: the past month of reporting has given us new admissions about a war that increasingly appears to be locked in bloody stalemate, along with a portrait of Ukraine and its leadership shorn of the rote glorification and hero worship of the conflict's early days. The deadlock has increasingly resembled brutal, unabating, First World War-style combat, with the Ukrainian army rapidly depleting artillery ammunition supplied by the West. Distant audiences, who always treated the war as a team sport, and Ukraine as an underdog defying the odds against a larger aggressor, are thinning out; surely many will soon turn their attention to the partisan conflict of the forthcoming US presidential election. Optimists say the change in the media's tone is indicative of little more than the inevitable pendulum swings of war and that Ukraine may yet emerge victorious. But such a view elides a host of unavoidable realities.

At the centre of this cascade of disappointment lies Ukraine's poor performance in the overhyped "spring counteroffensive", which arrived several months late. Boosters in the press set expectations so high that Ukraine was practically set up for failure. "We're about to see what a decentralised, horizontal, innovative high-tech force can do," Jessica Berlin, a German and American political analyst, wrote in May. "Ukraine may be underfunded, undermanned and underequipped compared to Russia. But those tactical, adaptive Ukrainian strengths deliver what money can't buy and training can't teach. Get ready for some stunners." In the Daily Telegraph, the soldier-turned-civilian-military-expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon was effusive as recently as June: "As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin's demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines."

But by most accounts, the counteroffensive has been a profound letdown. A Washington Post article published on 17 August cited a classified assessment by the US intelligence community which said that Ukraine's counteroffensive would "fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol", meaning that Kyiv "would not fulfil its principal objective of severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea". Other analyses have testified to the same. As Roland Popp, strategic analyst at the Swiss Military Academy at ETH Zurich told me, "The main cause for the change in [the media's] tune is certainly general disappointment about Ukrainian military performance in the much-anticipated 'counteroffensive'. Military experts in Western think tanks had whipped up high expectations based on Ukrainian successes in Kharkiv and Kherson last year. They ignored the Russian ability to adapt which is historically the main factor explaining the changing odds during wars and overstated the effects of Western weapons technology and doctrine."

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