Very long article about actual Ukrainian history.

https://x.com/dd_geopolitics/status/1690817561049575424?s=61&t=_kupzxtr0zazslneBuCB2w

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Since at least the Orange Revolution of 2004, only the Galician "National idea" has been allowed in Ukraine, but the history is not so simple. Ukraine has always been a borderland, and its people have always reflected that. But this idea has come at the cost of countless Ukrainian lives. The Jews murdered by the OUN were no less Ukrainian than Nachtigall and Roland, but the so-called Nationalists did not hesitate to kill them. Sidor Kovpak spent his entire life fighting against German invaders on Ukrainian soil, yet he is seen as insufficiently Ukrainian by the nationalists who served the same invaders.

We have already seen what happens when we let nationalists decide who is Ukrainian. It is millions of dead Ukrainians, fed into ovens and buried in the black soil of their homeland. Now, with the almost infinite backing of NATO, we once again see this "national idea" rearing it's ugly head, it's jaws wet with Ukrainian blood as the nation's people kill each other for the benefit of foreign powers.

The Ukrainian people deserve better than this. They should not have to die for the addled fantasy of terrorist warlords. The Ukrainian people can learn from their long, rich history, that when Nationalists rule, Ukrainians die. But there is also a precedent for peace in the borderlands. After the Galician "National Idea" was defeated by Ukrainians like Sidor Kovpak, they worked together to build a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine for all Ukrainians. There is no reason why they cannot do it again. First, they must defeat the nationalists once and for all.

Although Sidor Kovpak is not alive to save Ukraine once more, maybe his example can serve as a beacon to a nation poisoned by an ideology which has claimed so many Ukrainian lives.

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Strep update: Western media continues to shift in it's coverage, broadly:

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Western MSM has begun to lose it. Pessimism and dooming is now endemic to their reports. They've pretty much accepted that Ukraine has no chance in the counter-offensive. Listen to this CNN report, which perfectly summarizes the current sentimentthey're no longer beating around the bush:

A new NYTimes article reveals much of the same, but dashed with some grisly details of Ukrainian losses:

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The heavy losses were not a shock to them. Most of the commanders said that they had seen units, including their own, decimated at times during the past 16 months of fighting. The battalion commander, Oleksandr, said that casualties were so high during the counteroffensive in Kherson last year that he had been forced to replace the members of his unit three times.

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The commander reveals that most of his new men are mentally broken:

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"I lost a lot," he said, "and some of the new guys are mentally broken." As for the destruction of tanks and armored vehicles, he shrugged it off as a normal consequence of war.

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Population dwindles for Kiev presents a challenge for their new 'recruiting' directors:

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It may be difficult though. Here a famous demographer named Alexander Raksha gives some grim news about Ukraine's population. He believes it has already returned to 19th century levels and that the country now has arguably only 27M people remaining, out of the 40M previously:

His page can be found here: https://t.me/s/rakshademography

This is very conceivable given that latest June 2023 data shows over 4M Ukrainians fled to the EU alone, fine print stating that this doesn't even count minors for which they have no data:



We know the combined population of LPR, DPR, and Crimea is probably north of 6M. Add on top of that the millions of Ukrainians that fled to Russia proper from the rest of Ukraine and you get minimum 12-15M that have fled the country in general. Prewar population of 36M+ subtracted from that very quickly gets you to 27M and even below.

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I've seen it posited that the actual population remaining in Non-Russian annexed/occupied areas is closer to 20 million than 30.

Contrary to some assertions the 'meat assaults' from the UFA continue in places like Urohayzne

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I had mentioned in another report how Ukraine loves to use the familiar whataboutism style trick to conceal the fact that they're suffering vastly disproportionate losses. When Russia advances they run the narrative that Russia is losing far more men while AFU gives up some landwhich is false. However, when Russian sources use that claim, it's now cast in a dubious light because the average conflict follower is wearied by hearing both sides use the claim and psychologically assumes the neutral position that this must be the case for both sides depending on who's advancing.

But we now have seen from the absolute torrent of new information from every conceivable anglewhether it's cemetery researchers, the aforementioned NYTimes article with its 150k dead bombshell, endless anecdotal reports from AFU soldiers themselves, etc.that Ukraine is the one suffering unprecedented losses, while the reverse happens for Russia; anytime a new 'revelation' comes, like in the form of the VDV numbers I gave at the beginning, it ends up validating that Russia has suffered far fewer losses than many were led to believe.

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've read some banter/disputes as to KA-52's becoming 'endangered' due to losses but I guess that is all just 'hopeful' speculation:

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So prior to the war in 2021, a total of 134 choppers were delivered. This increased to 296 total in 2022, which includes civilian models. Out of this, 111 were military and the figure I've seen is around 20 of them were Ka-52s which means we can expect roughly a similar number give or take of Mi-28s.

But since 2023 figures are said to be even much higher, the total for the year should be minimum 1.5x to 2x which means 30-40 Ka-52s should be produced this year. I mention this only because another Ka-52 was just shot down, and Western headlines have flouted the claim that 40 total have been destroyed so far in the SMO.

But ~20 produced in 2022 and another 30-40 in 2023 means the purported 40 destroyed will have all been made up for.

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Anyway, more at the link. Not sure I buy into the prospect of a large Russian offensive heading into muddy and then winter seasons. I do doubt they have the ammo stockpiled to support it, also, but note it's a long update today, I recommend reading through/watching some of the videos embedded at the substack, to those interested in the perspective.

Forever war!

Nortex cites a New York Times from a week ago as "proof" the MSM is abandoning Ukraine, and right on cue this article is posted yesterday (and he ignores it)...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html

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Ukraine Makes 'Tactically Significant' Progress in Its Counteroffensive

After months of inching through minefields, villages and open steppes in grueling combat, Ukrainian forces are making somewhat bigger advances along two major lines of attack, according to analysts, Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers.

Although Ukraine has not advanced more than 10 to 12 miles on either vector of attack, its gains are important in that it is compelling Moscow to divert forces from other parts of the front line

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We bombed a wedding

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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We bombed a wedding

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And they bombed/rocketed...

Chernihiv apartment complexes
An entire block of apartments in Dnipro
Multiple apartments in Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles
The Chaplyne railway station
A cluster bomb attack on a Vuhledar hospital
21,000 killed in the shelling of Mariupol
A hospital in Mariupol
A theater in Mariupol
Missiles hitting the Kramatorsk railway station
A restaurant in Kramatorsk
Multiple apartement complexes in Chasiv Yar
Mass graves and attacks on civilians in Izium
Multiple schools and apartment complexes in Kharkiv
Multiple schools and apartment complexes in Kherson
A cruise missile attack on a Kremenchuk shopping mall
Kiev hit mutliple times in multiple residential areas with guided cruise missiles
The Bucha massacre
A school bombed in Bilohorivka
A retirement home in Stara Krasnianka
Odessa hit mutliple times in multiple residential areas with guided cruise missiles
Several residental areas targeted in Serhiivka
A school bombed in Okhtyrka
Multiple apartments targeted in Uman
The city center of Vinnytsia hit with cruise missiles
Cruise missiles hitting residential areas in Zhytomyr
School, hospital, and apartments hit in Zaporizhzhia

And of course the targeting of civilian electrical infrastructure in the middle of winter.


But like a wedding and *****

"Permanently steal"

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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"Permanently steal"

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That's right. As long as the intention is to temporarily steal or to steal and then install American cronies the theft is more moral.

We are locking this thing down until further notice. Warnings throughout this thread have not been heeded.

Any of you start a thread asking about this or post on other threads about this and you will be banned.

We understand the need for an ongoing thread about the Russia-Ukraine conflict from a foreign/public/financial policy perspective vs. the long running thread discussing military strategy/tactics within the combat zones.

Hopefully a two week lock on this thread has served as an appropriate warning and break for everyone that has contributed in the correct ways on this thread and those that crossed lines.

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I can respect the decision to take a 2 week break. Nothing really changes that fast in that war so not too much is missed. I appreciate the opportunity to hear different perspective updates on the this unfortunate conflict.

To restart the topic, here is an interesting thread discussing Russian casualties.

If Mediazona's count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate - and it probably is - Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they're now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.

This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ak5a6ZMq7T

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) September 2, 2023

The man who made Zelensky and financed some of the neo-nazi groups in Ukraine is being unmade by Zelensky. All in the name of "fighting corruption" in Ukraine on the behest of Zelensky's pimps from the West. https://t.co/eaaJyRqhho

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) September 2, 2023

Interesting to see 'corruption' being fought now, in Ukraine.

Zelenskiy opening trumpeting "cleansing" Ukraine of the Ukrainians who "make it weaker" https://t.co/KrDvWpshVT

— Mark Sleboda (@MarkSleboda1) September 2, 2023

Simplicius' update a couple days ago was pretty good, overall, and the Germans have seemingly pushed toward a negotiated ceasefire for next year lately.

Glad we can discuss this openly. The Ukrainian advance around Robotyne I have found to be surprising, but very limited/tentative as I think they are mainly going into the low areas with recon forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-send-its-first-depleted-uranium-rounds-ukraine-sources-2023-09-01/


Ukraine to get depleted uranium rounds. Say goodbye to what little armor Russia has left

Ukraines offensive is starting to pickup steam ahead the winter. And with Russia having basically no ability to mount an offensive of any kind, the ukes are in a great position. Especially as additional aid is pouring in from all corners of NATO now.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/02/ukrainian-counteroffensive-has-made-notable-progress-in-south-over-past-three-days-us-says

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Ukraine has made "notable progress" in its southern offensive over the past 72 hours, a top US security official has said, as Kyiv said its troops had broken through Russia's first line of defences in several places.
In Washington, White House national security council spokesman John Kirby said the US had "noted over the last 72 hours or so some notable progress by Ukrainian armed forces ... in that southern line of advance coming out of the Zaporizhzhia area".

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Soon the entire southern region will be under artillery and himars range. The only offensive Putin can mount at this time is against his chef in a private aircraft.

Interesting discussion regarding Russian combat strength and available forces for a future offensive.

The Sword of Damocles - the Russian Army's force buildup through 2023 and what it means for the Ukrainian War going forward.

One of the biggest - and certainly the most consequential - question marks in the world right now is the current status of the Russian Army. Some… pic.twitter.com/Zkd4685zIt

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) September 3, 2023

He mostly goes into manpower which has never really been an issue with Russia. Their issue lies in modern armor, which they are critically short in and lack of modern optics for said armor. They most of their high value offensive abilities trying to take Kiev. Since March of 2022 Russia has steadily lost ground and their only successful offensive was carried out by Wagner, which is now dissolved and their leader assassinated. Further compounding the problem is the ukes now getting depleted uranium rounds and a steady supply of anti tank weapons. Combine that with the F16's which while limited on offensive capabilities are perfectly suited in a defensive role, especially if and when we provide them with JASSM's.

We 18-months in. Is that right?

A conventional ground war in Europe. Ships being sunk. Missiles being launched from long range. Trench warfare. Dams being blown up causing downstream flooding. Subsea pipelines being sabotaged. Cyber attacks and psychological warfare being conducted. Finland joins NATO. Every month we sending more money to Ukraine.

Russia failing to conquer the country they attacked.

GAC06 said:

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Russia failing to conquer the country they attacked.

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Are they? It seems Russia has the upper hand here. Have you seen any signs Russia is making attempts to leave Ukraine?

Yes, after 18+ months Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine. They occupy less than they did shortly after their invasion.

GAC06 said:

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Yes, after 18+ months Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine. They occupy less than they did shortly after their invasion.

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Yes, but projections do not favor Ukraine. If Russia has simply not conquered them YET, that is hardly a victory.

Teslag said:

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He mostly goes into manpower which has never really been an issue with Russia. Their issue lies in modern armor, which they are critically short in and lack of modern optics for said armor. They most of their high value offensive abilities trying to take Kiev. Since March of 2022 Russia has steadily lost ground and their only successful offensive was carried out by Wagner, which is now dissolved and their leader assassinated. Further compounding the problem is the ukes now getting depleted uranium rounds and a steady supply of anti tank weapons. Combine that with the F16's which while limited on offensive capabilities are perfectly suited in a defensive role, especially if and when we provide them with JASSM's.

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Yes, but Ukraine does not control their own airspace. The introduction of f-16s will be met with the introduction of Russian air assets.

10thYrSr said:

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GAC06 said:

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Yes, after 18+ months Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine. They occupy less than they did shortly after their invasion.

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Yes, but projections do not favor Ukraine. If Russia has simply not conquered them YET, that is hardly a victory.

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Which projections? The ones where Russia has lost much of the ground they initially seized? Or when they were reduced to relying on a mercenary army that mutinied? Which projections paint a rosy picture for Russia?

10thYrSr said:

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Teslag said:

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He mostly goes into manpower which has never really been an issue with Russia. Their issue lies in modern armor, which they are critically short in and lack of modern optics for said armor. They most of their high value offensive abilities trying to take Kiev. Since March of 2022 Russia has steadily lost ground and their only successful offensive was carried out by Wagner, which is now dissolved and their leader assassinated. Further compounding the problem is the ukes now getting depleted uranium rounds and a steady supply of anti tank weapons. Combine that with the F16's which while limited on offensive capabilities are perfectly suited in a defensive role, especially if and when we provide them with JASSM's.

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Yes, but Ukraine does not control their own airspace. The introduction of f-16s will be met with the introduction of Russian air assets.

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Russia cannot operate in Ukrainian airspace. Unless you mean missile/drone attacks in which case Russia doesn't control their own airspace.

Russia's Air Force was a paper tiger. They will sit back and try to recoup their losses and maintain even the most basic idea of a deterrent towards NATO.

[Just counter-argue points. There is no reason to call other information pejorative names. We deleted the unnessary charged language. -Staff]

10thYrSr said:

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GAC06 said:

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Russia failing to conquer the country they attacked.

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Are they? It seems Russia has the upper hand here. Have you seen any signs Russia is making attempts to leave Ukraine?

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I believe the official position of the Uke is that "existence is victory"

"Existence" was not defined when I saw this asserted.

White House laments public dissent about the mythologized 'spring offensive' which is going so well this September:

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American officials are hindering the Ukrainian military by criticizing the slow pace of Kiev's counteroffensive, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Friday. Amid a glut of articles suggesting that Washington is disappointed with the offensive, Kirby claimed that the Ukrainians have "made progress" on the battlefield.

Almost three months have passed since Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces. According to Russian figures, Kiev lost 43,000 men in the first two months of the operation, without managing to penetrate the multiple layers of trenches and fortifications laid by Russia along the entire Kherson-Donetsk frontline.

For several weeks, media reports have suggested that Washington considers the counteroffensive a failure. Recent reports, attributed to anonymous US officials, blame Ukraine for misallocating troops, wastingammunition, and refusing to follow American military tactics.

"We've all seen the criticism by anonymous officials out there, which frankly is not helpful" to Ukraine's battlefield effort, Kirby told reporters on Friday.

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Good point by Caitlin:

US Officials Keep Boasting About How Much The Ukraine War Serves US Interests

One of the most glaring plot holes in the official mainstream narrative on Ukraine is the way US officials keep openly boasting that this supposedly unprovoked war which the US is only backing out of…

— Caitlin Johnstone (@caitoz) September 3, 2023

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And of course the mass media have been all aboard the same messaging. A few weeks ago The Washington Post's David Ignatius wrote an article explaining why westerners shouldn't "feel gloomy" about how things are going in Ukraine, writing the following about how much this war is doing to benefit US interests overseas:

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"Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West's most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance."

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I suspect I'll be periodically reminding my readers of that paragraph and Ignatius' parenthetical "other than for the Ukrainians" aside for the remainder of my writing career.

So on one hand the western political/media class have been hammering us in the face with the message that the invasion of Ukraine was "unprovoked" and that the US and its allies played no antagonistic role in paving the road to this conflict whatsoever, and on the other hand you've got all these empire managers enthusing about how much this war benefits US interests.

Those two narratives seem a wee bit contradictory, do they not?

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This is a few days old but a good one for this thread:

Viktor Orbán, PM of Hungary, a NATO Member, on what he would do if he was in charge:

“Peace immediately. Call back Trump.”

“Trump is the man who can save the Western world and probably all human beings on the globe.”

Orbán knows Trump can and will prevent full-scale WW3. pic.twitter.com/0vDxALfcID

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) August 29, 2023

WSJ has some good visualizations of the Russian defensive fortifications.

10thYrSr said:

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GAC06 said:

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Yes, after 18+ months Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine. They occupy less than they did shortly after their invasion.

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Yes, but projections do not favor Ukraine. If Russia has simply not conquered them YET, that is hardly a victory.

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Whose projections? Russia has no ability to mount an offensive and that doesn't appear to be changing.

How bad is it for Ukraine?

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Let me explain why I have spent so much effort on highlighting the commentary and analysis of retired U.S. Generals and some of their foreign counterparts, like Mick Ryan they are engaged in a massive propaganda campaign designed to mislead the Western public about the true state of the war in Ukraine.

They insist that Ukraine is winning, that Russia is losing and that the only prescription for Ukraine's continued "success" is to pour more money and weapons into the maelstrom consuming Ukraine. This is not a disagreement over what is the best flavor of ice cream. The citizens of the United States and Europe have a right to be properly informed about their resources that are being recklessly expended in Ukraine and that there is no path for victory for Ukraine because Ukraine lacks the material resources, the trained manpower and the weapons required to match up against Russia. Even if Ukraine was endowed suddenly with three fighter wings (that's about 180 combat planes), these would not be enough to penetrate and destroy Russia's echeloned defenses.

Take a hard look at this map. The green shows how far Ukrainian forces have advanced over the last three months of their counter offensive. This minuscule "progress" has cost Ukraine an enormous toll in casualties and equipment, such as tanks and armored personnel carriers. Skeptics in the West want to dismiss this as Russian propaganda. Okay. The please show me the reports from Western war correspondents who are on the ground reporting from Topmak or Melitopol. Those do not exist. How about a video or two of triumphant Ukrainian fighters standing atop the wreckage of the first line of the Surovikin defense? Ukraine and its NATO allies would be giddy with joy if they could show such images.

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Sarkozy speaks uncomfortable truths about Ukraine.

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In an interview with Le Figaro published on August 16 and based on his new book, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy laid out what has been missing from Western thinking on the war in Ukraine: a diplomatic Plan B in case the present Ukrainian offensive fails.

If it does fail, as seems increasingly probable, the most likely alternative to a diplomatic solution is an indefinite and bloody war of attrition along roughly the present battle lines.

Quite apart from the threats of disastrous escalation and a NATO-Russia war described by Sarkozy, Westerners who are or claim to be friends of Ukraine should consider the consequences of an unending war on that country. These include a continuation of dreadful human losses and continued destruction of the Ukrainian economy, with no certainty at all over who will pay to rebuild it. They would also entail the indefinite postponement of the process of EU accession, which would have offered Ukraine its best chance of truly joining the West and the inability of Ukrainian refugees to return home, leading to a catastrophic and permanent decline in Ukraine's population.

In addition to all of this: the possibility that a Ukrainian army exhausted and bled white by years of failed offensives will eventually fall victim to a Russian counter-attack, leading to territorial losses far greater than Ukraine has suffered so far.

This being so, one might think that even those who disagree with Sarkozy's specific recommendations would welcome the chance to hold a serious public debate on ways forward. Instead, the response from the great majority of Western (including French) politicians and commentators has followed the wearisomely familiar path of denunciations of the former president as a "Russian influencer" and "friend of Putin" whose remarks were "shameful" and "shocking."

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You should have added his summary…

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Western pundits need to pay attention to what Putin and his Generals have said about the purpose of this "special military operation" demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine. This was not some idle political talking point. While Russia's lack of big movement of massed forces frustrates many Western arm chair generals, Russia appears quite content to continue the systematic destruction of Ukraine's ground, air and sea forces. Time favors Russia. But not Ukraine. Each passing day brings Ukraine closer to the precipice of disaster.

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Which Putin generals? The countless number he's either fired or had fall from windows since this started? Russias lack of movement isn't some grand strategy. It's because they have no ability to mount an offensive. Their strength now lies purely in fortified defense and a **** load of mines. You cant advance with that. And every single day NATO continues to arm Ukraine to the teeth. And now Ukraine has pierced Russias main defenses in the south and threatens to put that entire region under himars and arty range. All while Russia's ruble collapses and they have no way to significantly strengthen their offensive arsenal.

Every Russian milblogger can paint all the rosy pictures they want and repeatedly claim Putin's ability to strategize but the internet doesn't forget. And every one of them was predicting Russian victory in days or weeks in February of 2022. Had you told them they'd be in this position 18 months later, while steadily losing every gain they've made, and NATO several counties larger and commited to giving Ukraine everything they can, they'd have had a meltdown. Yet, here we are, still days away from complete Russian victory.

[No reason to imply anyone on the thread is a slow learner or can't read. Just make arguments and counter-arguments. Stop with the pejorative terms. Assume everyone is as smart or smarter than you and just stick to the topic. - Staff]

This is my last post here for the time being. Its clear some folks are simply not ready to hear the "from Another Perspective" at this time.

Conservative New York Post now admitting what just about every western media outlet is now reporting. Ukraine has busted through Russias main defenses in south. If you recall just before this thread was locked, there was a lot of Russian milblogger and Russian state media reporting on how the western media was "turning on Ukraine". That has now proven to be yet another delusion, just like the belief this war would be over for Russia in days.

https://nypost.com/2023/09/02/ukraine-counteroffensive-breaks-through-russian-defense-line-in-south/amp/

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The breakthrough came after weeks of slow progress as Ukrainian forces cleared minefields in the Zaporizhzhia region amid the counter-push, a high-ranking military official said.

Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told The Guardian Moscow's first line of defense was its strongest, because Russia devoted most of its resources to it since they did not expect Ukraine to get so far.

Tarnavskyi estimated that Russia spent about 60% of its time and resources building the initial line of defense, while committing about 20% each to its second and third lines.

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The great Russian army is quite literally now regulated to being simple mine layers and trench diggers. Because, quite frankly, that's all they are now capable of.

nortex97 said:

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How accurate is this map? Does anyone contest its accuracy?

It is September and Uke has been "on the offensive" since Spring. I find this shocking. I knew Uke gains were minimal but just based on pixels this is a fraction of a percentage point in reclaimed territory, since Spring. Am I reading it wrong?

No. And I'm going to continue to refrain from responding to some. The Russians have also added at least 300k in or near theater in combat forces and logarithmically increased drone production.

This war is over, it's just about when some announce it.