fka ftc said:

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You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

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Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

Interesting update.



Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris are highly credible/informed in this conflict, imho. Moreso than even some posters on this website.

nortex97 said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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nortex97 said:

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The link was in april/may.

Before the big/mythologized 'offensive.'

80 percent is from a link I provided above. I don't care what you believe, yet again. I care about people dying needlessly, something that clearly differentiates us.

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Unless I'm missing something, there was no link to your 80% number from earlier today, just pasted text. Feel free to share the source though, which I'm sure is completely unbiased.

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My sincerest apologies, I'll humor you this time. Only 20 percent of the folks summoned/drafted, show up when ordered to do so, in Lviv.

Quote:

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Employees of the territorial recruitment and social support centers will not refuse to serve summonses on the streets, because only 20% of men voluntarily come to the military commissariats.

Oleksandr Tishchenko, head of the Lviv Regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center, said this in an interview with Leopolis, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"Somewhere around 20% (half of whom are contract soldiers) of the planned task that we have to perform voluntarily come to the military commissariats. If there are no searches, sending to clarify the data, then mobilization may be in jeopardy," he said.

---

Further, to repeat a theme, it's a ghost town (not from link).

Quote:

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The area governed by Kiev has essentially no economy to speak of. Everything was wrecked after 2014. For example In 2021; 90% of wage earners grossed less than 500/month. 30% earned around 250/month.

Demographics: Between 2014-2021, 8 million people fled overseas. (5 million to EU and 3 million to RF) Since 2022 another 8 million fled (roughly at the same rate.)

7 million people live in the DPR/LPR/Crimea.

---

---

So one anecdotal story from one city means "80 percent of Ukrainians don't want anything to do with military service to the government." Brilliant scientific analysis there.

It's not anecdotal when one of the officials in a larger western Ukrainian (non-russian population) draft/round up/confiscation director, a city where a lot of western aid has flowed and in general comparatively shielded from most of the combat impacts directly, laments that only 20 percent show up when a draft order is received. I know the cheerleaders won't like this but that was reported in Ukrainian state media even.

That is a shockingly low rate, I would have guessed at least 60 percent would respond but clearly they are not able to get folks to go to the front/inducted into military service without 'round ups' or forcible conscription in any numbers at all.

Anyway, update today:

Quote:

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Now, onto that offensive. Like I said, there are two main areas. When they first began to fail in Zaporozhye, the AFU shifted tactics and sent reinforcements to the Bakhmut line to see if they could make a breakthrough there instead. At this point, with time running out, they'll take their chips where they may, and if they can make a significant 'showy' breakthrough in Bakhmut, it can at least salvage some part of their campaign enough to use as a credit with NATO in the upcoming summit.

And they have been making some gains in Bakhmut, but the critical point that's missed is the scale to which they're expending troops there. New information points to the fact that they're throwing very large amounts of reinforcements there the past few days, thousands of men and what's described by a frontline observer as "hundreds" of new vehicles. All in an attempt to capture Klescheevka in the south of Bakhmut and make inroads around Berkhovka in the north.
….

With that said, they are still clearly holding the most important points if you discount some of the open fields of the 'crumple zones', so for now the situation is not critical despite some alarmists claiming that Bakhmut will soon fall back to AFU control after being 'encircled'. And as of this writing, Russia appears to have counter-attacked to regain ground as well:

Quote:

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"The 105th Regiment of the DPR Militia" TG Channel reports on the Russian counterattack on the southern flank of the Artyomovsk front:

The Artyomovsk direction is a source of good news today:

In the morning reports came in that the Russian Army is launching a powerful counterattack on the southern flank.

1) From the Kleshcheevka area, the Russian forces launched an offensive in the direction of Krasnoye.

2) From the Kurdyumovka area, an offensive is underway in the direction of Belaya Gora.
Our infantry is actively supported by aviation and heavy artillery, as usual (thank God!).

---

…

So the conclusion is: Ukraine is expending a lot of forces and offensive potential (in both materiel, manpower, ammo, etc.) to capture a few empty fields thus far.

Now, to the north, the situation is the reverse. Russian elite units are overrunning Ukrainian weak points and are making daily gains. Today Russia re-captured the industrial area of Belgorovka, the town just to the east of the Seversk front.

Quote:

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Seversky direction
Early this morning, our troops began active assault operations in the settlement area. Belogorovka The enemy has left part of the positions The battle continues Our troops are supported by aviation

---

…
So the point is, what kind of madness is the Ukrainian 'offensive' attempt? They are going against one of the densest prepared defenses in history, while pretty much either evenly matched or even outnumbered numerically, and having zero air cover. And that's not to even mention having a 1:10 artillery disparity not in their favor. There is no sane general in history who would even attempt such a thing. In order to have a successful offensive even with a peer-level force you're equally matched to in armament you need to have a huge numerical advantage in troops to stand a chance.

---

Pretty much. Anyway, more at the link. Would be nice if he is right about DC/CIA disposing of Zelensky soon for a sort of 'peace talk' breakthrough path with zaluzhny etc.

More random substack links

Yep.

Quote:

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With Ukrainian officials expressing frustration over the pace of the country's counteroffensive against Russian forces, Ambassador Anatoly Antonov appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's international supporters to prevent an escalation.

"We call on the curators of the Kiev regime to exercise responsibility and exert influence on their 'wards' in order to avoid a large-scale catastrophe," Antonov told Newsweek. "Western ruling elites should understand that the failures on the battlefield make Kiev eager to create a pretext for the deployment of the NATO contingent to Ukraine, thereby to inflate a regional conflict into World War III."

"American and European citizens are hardly ready to march in orderly rows to the hell, into which the Zelensky government is dragging the entire planet," he added.

---

Summer offensive/ well we're waiting gif

nortex97 said:

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It's not anecdotal when one of the officials in a larger western Ukrainian (non-russian population) draft/round up/confiscation director, a city where a lot of western aid has flowed and in general comparatively shielded from most of the combat impacts directly, laments that only 20 percent show up when a draft order is received. I know the cheerleaders won't like this but that was reported in Ukrainian state media even.

That is a shockingly low rate, I would have guessed at least 60 percent would respond but clearly they are not able to get folks to go to the front/inducted into military service without 'round ups' or forcible conscription in any numbers at all.

Anyway, update today:

Quote:

---

Now, onto that offensive. Like I said, there are two main areas. When they first began to fail in Zaporozhye, the AFU shifted tactics and sent reinforcements to the Bakhmut line to see if they could make a breakthrough there instead. At this point, with time running out, they'll take their chips where they may, and if they can make a significant 'showy' breakthrough in Bakhmut, it can at least salvage some part of their campaign enough to use as a credit with NATO in the upcoming summit.

And they have been making some gains in Bakhmut, but the critical point that's missed is the scale to which they're expending troops there. New information points to the fact that they're throwing very large amounts of reinforcements there the past few days, thousands of men and what's described by a frontline observer as "hundreds" of new vehicles. All in an attempt to capture Klescheevka in the south of Bakhmut and make inroads around Berkhovka in the north.
….

With that said, they are still clearly holding the most important points if you discount some of the open fields of the 'crumple zones', so for now the situation is not critical despite some alarmists claiming that Bakhmut will soon fall back to AFU control after being 'encircled'. And as of this writing, Russia appears to have counter-attacked to regain ground as well:

Quote:

---

"The 105th Regiment of the DPR Militia" TG Channel reports on the Russian counterattack on the southern flank of the Artyomovsk front:

The Artyomovsk direction is a source of good news today:

In the morning reports came in that the Russian Army is launching a powerful counterattack on the southern flank.

1) From the Kleshcheevka area, the Russian forces launched an offensive in the direction of Krasnoye.

2) From the Kurdyumovka area, an offensive is underway in the direction of Belaya Gora.
Our infantry is actively supported by aviation and heavy artillery, as usual (thank God!).

---

…

So the conclusion is: Ukraine is expending a lot of forces and offensive potential (in both materiel, manpower, ammo, etc.) to capture a few empty fields thus far.

Now, to the north, the situation is the reverse. Russian elite units are overrunning Ukrainian weak points and are making daily gains. Today Russia re-captured the industrial area of Belgorovka, the town just to the east of the Seversk front.

Quote:

---

Seversky direction
Early this morning, our troops began active assault operations in the settlement area. Belogorovka The enemy has left part of the positions The battle continues Our troops are supported by aviation

---

…
So the point is, what kind of madness is the Ukrainian 'offensive' attempt? They are going against one of the densest prepared defenses in history, while pretty much either evenly matched or even outnumbered numerically, and having zero air cover. And that's not to even mention having a 1:10 artillery disparity not in their favor. There is no sane general in history who would even attempt such a thing. In order to have a successful offensive even with a peer-level force you're equally matched to in armament you need to have a huge numerical advantage in troops to stand a chance.

---

Pretty much. Anyway, more at the link. Would be nice if he is right about DC/CIA disposing of Zelensky soon for a sort of 'peace talk' breakthrough path with zaluzhny etc.

---

If we're going to "dispose" of anyone, I'd prefer it was the one person who is 100% responsible for this entire war and could stop it at any point, but maybe that's just me.

LarryElder said:

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Summer offensive/ well we're waiting gif

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Still happening. Russia's occupied lands in Ukraine continue to get smaller and smaller.

Teslag said:

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fka ftc said:

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You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

---

Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

---

Russia too. UK, France, etc.

I am roaming Ireland and admittedly had not ever done much reading on their independence. If you have not, you should do so. It's a very good comparison on what makes a country sovereign. The British came in and owned it for hundreds of years and there were several bouts back and forth before WWI gave an opportunity for the Irish to spilt. But there are still so many ties back to the Crown and the 6 counties in the north show it's not a perfect split regardless.

So is Ireland a sovereign country? It's hard to make a complete argument that it is.

Ukraine is no Ireland. Their more recent history is much murkier.

You can keep crying that Ukraine is the most sovereigntest of all, but logic, facts and history are not on your side.

Teslag said:

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LarryElder said:

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Summer offensive/ well we're waiting gif

---

Still happening. Russia's occupied lands in Ukraine continue to get smaller and smaller.

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Seems like they are doing it well on their own and stacking the corpses of those dang Rooskies.

So we can spend our money elsewhere, like lowering crime and violence in our cities.

We will never know what the Biden administration is wanting but this isn't the cold war anymore. Back then we just outspent Russia to the point of collapse, seeing as O&G revenues for Russia have increased this year I don't see that happening. Russia was set to collapse due to not having enough working age males but they have imported anywhere from 200k-900k Ukes from blue collar areas so that may not be an issue to them anymore. Russia wanted to get rid of the minorities and citizens from the rural towns that added nothing to the economy for decades and those are the ones that were conscripted.

US inflation is still rising, our border is porous as ever, our inner cities continue to get worse, and yet we are spending billions on a country across the world that we cannot audit. Top that with the Bidens having a long history of money scandals in Ukraine I would imagine this thing will be drawn out until at least the election of 2024.

Remember the only cities in Russia where public opinion matter is Moscow and St. Petersburg, most of the others are there to support Russia.

Quote:

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Seems like they are doing it well on their own and stacking the corpses of those dang Rooskies.

So we can spend our money elsewhere, like lowering crime and violence in our cities.

---

Not to derail, but that would take regime change in our large (D) run cities. Out of scope for this thread, so we should just focus on the Uke-Russo meat grinder for now...

Teslag said:

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LarryElder said:

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Summer offensive/ well we're waiting gif

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Still happening. Russia's occupied lands in Ukraine continue to get smaller and smaller.

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Is this the cross dressing comedians talking points ?

Got 'em!

Well said and true.

GAC06 said:

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Got 'em!

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this is lame but not as bad the UKE summer offensive.

Some fall for propaganda like the Bloomberg piece which is just poor analyses/use of data sources to paint a rosy picture for Ukraine.

3. Our visually-confirmed losses are likely an underestimate - but likely to a higher degree for damaged and destroyed vehicles than for captured ones. So Ukraine likely lost a lot more tanks that lack visual evidence than it captured without visual evidence.

— Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) July 7, 2023

When people write such analysis, IMO they should do proper in-depth research and consult with experts and people whose data they are using to make sure they are not missing something important.

This looks like the result of a few minutes on Google search.

— Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) July 7, 2023

But it was printed/published in a big western media outlet so folks trust it. We have a lot of 'fake news' coverage of the conflict, and shallow/poor analyses from keyboards across the country/Europe.

fka ftc said:

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Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

---

Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

---

Russia too. UK, France, etc.

I am roaming Ireland and admittedly had not ever done much reading on their independence. If you have not, you should do so. It's a very good comparison on what makes a country sovereign. The British came in and owned it for hundreds of years and there were several bouts back and forth before WWI gave an opportunity for the Irish to spilt. But there are still so many ties back to the Crown and the 6 counties in the north show it's not a perfect split regardless.

So is Ireland a sovereign country? It's hard to make a complete argument that it is.

Ukraine is no Ireland. Their more recent history is much murkier.

You can keep crying that Ukraine is the most sovereigntest of all, but logic, facts and history are not on your side.

---

Russia isn't. They are relying on China and Iran for assistance and therefore not sovereign according to your defintion. Actually, strike france too. They needed us to push the Nazis off their land. Same with the UK when we gave them planes pilots and weapons ton win the Battle of Britain.

LarryElder said:

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GAC06 said:

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Got 'em!

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this is lame but not as bad the UKE summer offensive.

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What was wrong with your first attempt? It was witty and you totally got me with a sick burn!

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

---

Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

---

Russia too. UK, France, etc.

I am roaming Ireland and admittedly had not ever done much reading on their independence. If you have not, you should do so. It's a very good comparison on what makes a country sovereign. The British came in and owned it for hundreds of years and there were several bouts back and forth before WWI gave an opportunity for the Irish to spilt. But there are still so many ties back to the Crown and the 6 counties in the north show it's not a perfect split regardless.

So is Ireland a sovereign country? It's hard to make a complete argument that it is.

Ukraine is no Ireland. Their more recent history is much murkier.

You can keep crying that Ukraine is the most sovereigntest of all, but logic, facts and history are not on your side.

---

Russia isn't. They are relying on China and Iran for assistance and therefore not sovereign according to your defintion. Actually, strike france too. They needed us to push the Nazis off their land. Same with the UK when we gave them planes pilots and weapons ton win the Battle of Britain.

---

Don't forget a part of Russia was invaded by Ukraine earlier this year. So they aren't sovereign either. Also, I read on here constantly that we are being invaded at our southern border and apparently that means our government is not allowed to do anything else in the world, so I guess we are not a sovereign nation either.

Quote:

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Some fall for propaganda

---

You totally wouldn't do that as you claw for the next Russian substack article or quote Scott Ritter.

That's true. We also were attacked on 9/11, relied on a coalition of countries for aid, and still didn't win the war in Afghanistan.

USA = not sovereign

Our middle class still funding the Nazi's vs Communist or is it over yet?

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

---

Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

---

Russia too. UK, France, etc.

I am roaming Ireland and admittedly had not ever done much reading on their independence. If you have not, you should do so. It's a very good comparison on what makes a country sovereign. The British came in and owned it for hundreds of years and there were several bouts back and forth before WWI gave an opportunity for the Irish to spilt. But there are still so many ties back to the Crown and the 6 counties in the north show it's not a perfect split regardless.

So is Ireland a sovereign country? It's hard to make a complete argument that it is.

Ukraine is no Ireland. Their more recent history is much murkier.

You can keep crying that Ukraine is the most sovereigntest of all, but logic, facts and history are not on your side.

---

Russia isn't. They are relying on China and Iran for assistance and therefore not sovereign according to your defintion. Actually, strike france too. They needed us to push the Nazis off their land. Same with the UK when we gave them planes pilots and weapons ton win the Battle of Britain.

---

You keep failing at logic over and over again.

Most people can understand what makes a country sovereign. Did China and Iran give Russia billions of dollars and weaponry… no strings attached?

Also, we billed France and Uk for WWII assistance, then forgave it years later. I know history and facts are not your specialty, but I cannot spend everyday teaching you things you should have learned on your own.

Teslag said:

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That's true. We also were attacked on 9/11, relied on a coalition of countries for aid, and still didn't win the war in Afghanistan.

USA = not sovereign

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You speak Dari or Pashto after 09/11?

No? Then maybe think through your "analysis" again.

fka ftc said:

---

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

Teslag said:

---

fka ftc said:

---

You keep using the word sovereign like you understand what it means.

---

Under your definition China and the US are the only sovereign nations on earth

---

Russia too. UK, France, etc.

I am roaming Ireland and admittedly had not ever done much reading on their independence. If you have not, you should do so. It's a very good comparison on what makes a country sovereign. The British came in and owned it for hundreds of years and there were several bouts back and forth before WWI gave an opportunity for the Irish to spilt. But there are still so many ties back to the Crown and the 6 counties in the north show it's not a perfect split regardless.

So is Ireland a sovereign country? It's hard to make a complete argument that it is.

Ukraine is no Ireland. Their more recent history is much murkier.

You can keep crying that Ukraine is the most sovereigntest of all, but logic, facts and history are not on your side.

---

Russia isn't. They are relying on China and Iran for assistance and therefore not sovereign according to your defintion. Actually, strike france too. They needed us to push the Nazis off their land. Same with the UK when we gave them planes pilots and weapons ton win the Battle of Britain.

---

You keep failing at logic over and over again.

Most people can understand what makes a country sovereign. Did China and Iran give Russia billions of dollars and weaponry… no strings attached?

Also, we billed France and Uk for WWII assistance, then forgave it years later. I know history and facts are not your specialty, but I cannot spend everyday teaching you things you should have learned on your own.

---

What could go wrong?

President Biden is prepared to waive U.S. law prohibiting the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent to send them to Ukraine, amid concerns about Kyiv’s lagging counteroffensive against Russian troops. https://t.co/oesF6SwVH3

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 7, 2023

Brilliant way to blunt any Russian plans to throw bodies at the problem. Now we can just shred Russian bodies rather than stack them.

What could go wrong? A lot, for Russia. Unfortunately probably some extra UXO will be added to the crap ton of Russian mines and cluster munitions

Our 'allies' in freedom:

Ukraine is desperate to show results in the counterattack. They found a new way of attacking, that works.

They send soldiers, as a sabotage pack, without support, to the Russian lines. There they die like flies (see the bodies on the right).

However, Ukraine knows that Russian… pic.twitter.com/VtnIuUW0AE

— Make Peace Now; alternative news (@AlternatNews) July 7, 2023

Apparently, from what I've read elsewhere it is true; the Ukrainians after their horrible success rate advancing columns of armor have resorted to naked infantry attacks, because of the mines/air cover/artillery. Bonsai!



Sigh…

Quote:

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from what I've read elsewhere…

---

Disgusting, really. We know how the (Zelensky) Ukrainians would/will use these.

Around the world, politicians say we must protect vulnerable communities through censorship and warrantless spying, but that's a grotesque lie. No movement for human liberation or progress has ever succeeded by censoring its opponents. Never. Oppressors censor, not liberators. pic.twitter.com/aUaYYxvgdL

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) July 7, 2023

Cluster Bombs For Kids

The White House has floated what appears to be a trial balloon to see how open the public might be to giving Ukraine cluster bombs, which are famous for maiming and killing children. And quite a trial balloon it was.

The “widely banned weapons,” reported…

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) July 7, 2023

Note, I really don't think this is about just killing Russians, any more than I believe the Xiden lies about the desperate need to continue to censor American's political speech is about national security. These sorts of extra-legal actions, once permitted, are only inexorably expanded upon.

The flower of Ukrainian & Russian youth are dying in trenches, with no meaningful change in territory

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 7, 2023

I don't care what anyone thinks of me, or Russel Brand, or Tucker Carlson, or Michael Shellenberger, or substack etc. This is a big 'effing deal.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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from what I've read elsewhere…

---

---

Well that settles it then.

nortex97 said:

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Disgusting, really. We know how the (Zelensky) Ukrainians would/will use these.

Around the world, politicians say we must protect vulnerable communities through censorship and warrantless spying, but that's a grotesque lie. No movement for human liberation or progress has ever succeeded by censoring its opponents. Never. Oppressors censor, not liberators. pic.twitter.com/aUaYYxvgdL

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) July 7, 2023

Cluster Bombs For Kids

The White House has floated what appears to be a trial balloon to see how open the public might be to giving Ukraine cluster bombs, which are famous for maiming and killing children. And quite a trial balloon it was.

The “widely banned weapons,” reported…

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) July 7, 2023

Note, I really don't think this is about just killing Russians, any more than I believe the Xiden lies about the desperate need to continue to censor American's political speech is about national security. These sorts of extra-legal actions, once permitted, are only inexorably expanded upon.

The flower of Ukrainian & Russian youth are dying in trenches, with no meaningful change in territory

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 7, 2023

I don't care what anyone thinks of me, or Russel Brand, or Tucker Carlson, or Michael Shellenberger, or substack etc. This is a big 'effing deal.

---

Russia could easily avoid any Russians getting hit by cluster bombs by sending their troops home.