Dickdelaware said:

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I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

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They could very well. That certainly plays into their calculus. Right now there are quite a few in Europe with a hard-on to bring Ukraine into the EU and NATO. That's primarily Eastern European nations but there's a lot of EU cash in addition to frozen Russian funds set to roll in if Ukraine can successfully repel Russia to something resembling the lines as they stood not too long after 2014 (Crimea notwithstanding) and force favorable terms for negotiation.

I think that China, while lucrative, is probably less appealing due to the consistently predatory nature of their "assistance". The Ukrainians in a position to benefit will likely end up fatter and happier if aligned with Europe than China, but aligning with China is far better than ending up in a pit, should Ukraine ultimately find themselves in a less optimistic position than they are at the moment.

The nato expansion chorus/choir is fascinating both today and historically.

.@ComicDaveSmith shocks @JoeRogan with a powerful rant about NATO expansion, the 2014 Ukraine coup, and how American policies led to the War in Ukraine, bringing us closer to a potential nuclear World War III:

"It's not like it's just Ron Paul, Noam Chomsky, and Pat Buchanan… pic.twitter.com/nNxhdik9Ol

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) April 28, 2023

I think much more will be written about it in the future.

LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

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this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

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The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time, including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

Dickdelaware said:

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LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

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this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

---

The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time , including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

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You have absolutely zero idea if either of these are true.

Dickdelaware said:

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LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

---

this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

---

The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time, including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

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If the only argument you can win is a strawman argument, you don't have a very good argument.

twk said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

---

this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

---

The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time, including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

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If the only argument you can win is a strawman argument, you don't have a very good argument.

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I agree, it's a straw man to fabricate a narrative that Zelensky stayed behind in Kiev with an 'iPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.' It's such a disingenuous representation of recent history as to be deliberately dishonest, while at the same time insultingly dumb/idiotic.

What a play on words.

Dickdelaware said:

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twk said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

---

this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

---

The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time, including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

---

If the only argument you can win is a strawman argument, you don't have a very good argument.

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I agree, it's a straw man to fabricate a narrative that Zelensky stayed behind in Kiev with an 'iPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.' It's such a disingenuous representation of recent history as to be deliberately dishonest, while at the same time insultingly dumb/idiotic.

What a play on words.

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You obviously don't understand the term.

No one here is using the Zelensky as a hero description that you set up as your strawman. Since no one else was making that claim, you do it for them, so that you can then attack that position. That's a strawman.

twk said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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twk said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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LMCane said:

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Dickdelaware said:

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I think you see things as a 'country' making a decision, when in reality Ukraine, like many countries, is run by a small group of oligarchs looking for their best interests first.

I'd be shocked if Zelensky et al aren't thinking actively about when the best time to take their 'best offer' is going to be. OBOR etc. is tailored to work as such. That's why it has been hugely successful sful in places throughout South America/africa.

---

this is pure STUPIDITY and one of the worst takes on this site

if Zelensky was only "looking for his best interest first"

why the @#$@# didn't he take the US offered helicopter out of Ukraine on day two of the war?!?!

instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

really annoying hearing the idiotic takes from rigid ideologues detached from ACTUAL events and reality.

---

The pure stupidity and idiotic take is to lionize him as some altruistic hero. He's been physically safe the whole time, including the theatrical moments with air raid sirens and Biden walking around Kiev with him.

He's vastly wealthier today than he was 18 months ago.

---

If the only argument you can win is a strawman argument, you don't have a very good argument.

---

I agree, it's a straw man to fabricate a narrative that Zelensky stayed behind in Kiev with an 'iPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.' It's such a disingenuous representation of recent history as to be deliberately dishonest, while at the same time insultingly dumb/idiotic.

What a play on words.

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You obviously don't understand the term.

No one here is using the Zelensky as a hero description that you set up as your strawman. Since no one else was making that claim, you do it for them, so that you can then attack that position. That's a strawman.

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This sure sounds like a (fictional) description of Zelensky as a hero:

Quote:

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instead dude stayed behind in Kyiv with an IPhone recording messages as he dodged incoming missiles and Russian hit squads.

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That's my point. Glad we agree!

Some just want the war to drag on, obviously, but China has some track record of success, as with Iran-Saudi, again two countries very focused on the money for the ruling oligarchs. We will see.

Can China broker peace in Ukraine? Don't rule it out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris https://t.co/T8EnSfM9dq

— Margaret Reis (@margreis9) April 28, 2023

Interesting take:

Quote:

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PROPOSITION(S):

Donbas is simply Bakhmut writ large.

Though RF will continue to press sufficiently to produce UKR resistance, Russian forces will not significantly advance until UKR stops sending forces to oppose them.

That is, Russia prefers to fight NATO *from* the Donbas rather than fighting across Ukraine to reach NATO. Fighting from the Donbas neutralizes NATO aircraft (too far) and missile systems (too easily shot down and devastatingly replied to).

This is why they do not take out the bridges. Not because they want to use them (primarily) but because they funnel NATO resources into the kill zone. If we see RF blow the bridges, it is more likely to be if UKR moves to use them in a mass retreat from Donbas.

The most problematic move (for RF) that NATO could make would be to have UKR withdraw its remaining resources to defend a line somewhere West of the Dniepr, to protect what they value most (Kiev & the West) and especially what NATO values most: Odessa.

This would challenge the RF to try to cross the Dniepr to meet a NATO force in Ukraine that is not yet completely broken. The current NATO/UKR fight-for-every-inch in Donbas strategy is perfectly congenial to the Russians.

Russia will not want to fight for (and destroy) Odessa, and without Odessa there's little incentive to cross the Dniepr at all. Controlling the Danube / connecting Hungary would be nice, but not essential.

The only way Russia will take Odessa is if and after the Ukrainian military potential is completely exhausted. Why hold Ukraine territory West of the Dniepr before then?

Better that the West--which broke Ukraine--should pay 20 billion a month to arm, feed, and support it.

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The horrific attack on Uman was apparently related to an air defense command/facility there? I have no idea, looks awful. The Russians have been idling this power plant which team Xiden asked them nicely not to touch, but it looks like they are going to connect it to their grid;

Quote:

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• Russia informed the UN's nuclear watchdog that equipment spotted at Ukraine's Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would be used to fix a power transmission line that leads to Russian-held territory, the watchdog said on Friday. The planned restoration of the downed power line could heighten Ukrainian fears that Russia is preparing to connect Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, to the power grid of territory that it controls.

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Zelensky has also overnight appealed to…China to help as an intercession with Russia 'for the children.' Whenever a politician involves children in a request, I assume it is a ploy for other motives.

Quote:

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Ukraine's president said on Friday that he had asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to help bring back Ukrainian children deported by Russia.

In his evening address, AFP reports that Volodymyr Zelenskiy as saying:

Quote:

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We need to involve everyone ... to put pressure on the Russian aggressor and the terrorists who kidnapped so many of our children.

The UN, many others want to do something, but so far the results have been poor. So I have appealed to the leader of China.

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Zelensky and crew may be closer to truce discussions than I thought.

Perspective on Victoria Nuland/Ukraine war:

Quote:

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"Victoria Nuland exemplifies the neocons who have led US foreign policy from one disaster to another for the past 30 years while evading accountability. It is a bad sign that President Joe Biden has nominated Victoria Nuland for the third highest position at the State Department, Under Secretary for Political Affairs." (ronpaulinstitute.org 2/11/21)

"The war began with the violent overthrow of Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, a coup that was overtly and covertly backed by the United States government in the service of NATO expansion." (Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia, Jeffrey Sachs 3/8/23)

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Quote:

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'So she also showed me some photos, she said that as medical doctor, she can say it is the same handwriting, the same type of bullets, and it's really disturbing that now the new coalition, that they don't want to investigate what exactly happened. So there is a stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers it was not Yanukovych, it was somebody from the new coalition,' Paet says.

'I think we do want to investigate. I didn't pick that up, that's interesting. Gosh,' Ashton says." (the guardian.com 3/5/14)

In a December 19th interview in the Russian magazine Kommersant, George Friedman, who was the founder and CEO of Stratfor, the 'Shadow CIA' firm, said of the overthrow of President Yanukovych on February 22, 2014: "It really was the most blatant coup in history."

"The massacre by snipers of anti-government activists and police officers in Kiev's Maidan Square in late February 2014 was a defining moment in the US-orchestrated overthrow of Ukraine's elected government. The death of 70 protesters triggered an avalanche of international outrage that made President Viktor Yanukovych's downfall a fait accompli. Yet today these killings remain unsolved.

Enter Ivan Katchanovski, a Ukrainian-Canadian political scientist at the University of Ottawa. For years, he marshaled overwhelming evidence demonstrating that the snipers were not affiliated with Yanukovych's government, but pro-Maidan operatives firing from protester-occupied buildings.

Though Katchanovski's groundbreaking has been studiously ignored by the mainstream media, a scrupulous study he presented on the slaughter in September 2015 and August 2021 and published in 2016 and in 2020 has been cited on over 100 occasions by scholars and experts. As a result of this paper and other pieces of research, he has been among the world's most-referenced political scientists specializing in Ukrainian matters." (thegrayzone.com 3/12/23)

"The war began with the violent overthrow of Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, a coup that was overtly and covertly backed by the United States government in the service of NATO expansion. During his presidency (2010-2014), Yanukovych sought military neutrality, precisely to avoid a civil or proxy war in Ukraine. But this stood in the way of NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia that the US had pushed for from 2008 onward." (Dr. Jeffrey Sachs: ekathimerini.com 3/8/23)
It didn't take long for Vladimir Putin to respond to Nuland's coup d'tat, because he knew NATO's goal was to seize Sevastopol, Russia's Black Sea naval base on the Crimean Peninsula. Just five days later, on February 27, 2014, he installed a pro-Russian government with a declaration of independence declared on March 16th. Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014, formally reclaiming the strategic Black Sea peninsula Catherine the Great captured from the Ottoman Turks in 1783, but was transferred to Soviet Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. After the annexation a referendum was held based on UN statutes of self-determination, with 90% of the population voting to rejoin Russia.

Ethnic Russian provinces in Eastern Ukraine unhappy with Nuland's coup initially sought the same autonomy enjoyed by Quebec & Catalonia, but were rebuffed by the US puppet government in Kyiv, with Ambassador Pyatt declaring them terrorists. Armed militias in Donbass & Luhansk then seized government buildings and called for independence. In April 2014 Ukraine launched an Anti-Terrorist Operation against the separatist forces and reclaimed most of Donbass. In response, Russia launched a "humanitarian convoy" including military personnel and equipment, which pushed Ukrainian forces back from its border. On May 2, 2014 dozens of "separatists" were burned to death in the Odessa Trade Unions Building by "nationalist" Ukrainians after demonstrations in the city, a rallying point for ethnic Russians to this day.

On September 5, 2014 Ukraine, Russia, Donetsk Peoples' Republic & Luhansk Peoples' Republic signed the first of the infamous Minsk Agreements, which required Ukraine to recognize limited autonomy for Donbass and enshrine it in a new constitution. Instead of granting that autonomy, Ukraine continued to exert its authority over Donbass by force.

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It's a very long piece that is accurate and well sourced. This woman should be facing war crime trials, not leading the US department of state in many ways.

Quote:

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That is, Russia prefers to fight NATO *from* the Donbas rather than fighting across Ukraine to reach NATO. Fighting from the Donbas neutralizes NATO aircraft (too far) and missile systems (too easily shot down and devastatingly replied to).

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Yeah that take certainly is… uh… interesting

Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Conscription. Because nothing says I want to die for my cause then being told you have to die for our cause. Doesn't that fly in the face of the this is just what the Ukrainians want argument?

texagbeliever said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Conscription. Because nothing says I want to die for my cause then being told you have to die for our cause. Doesn't that fly in the face of the this is just what the Ukrainians want argument?

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Doesn't that work the other way with the Russians?

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Airtight sourcing as usual.

Ag with kids said:

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texagbeliever said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Conscription. Because nothing says I want to die for my cause then being told you have to die for our cause. Doesn't that fly in the face of the this is just what the Ukrainians want argument?

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Doesn't that work the other way with the Russians?

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Yes, both sides are run by oligarchs who use conscription to send their subjects off to die in battle. There is no good side in this war. Both have limited the right to travel (no right to leave the country for military age males), state controlled media, ban books, use forced conscription, have eliminated political opposition parties, and generally have horrible human rights records as well as governments that ranked as recently as 2022 as among the most corrupt 2 in Europe.

The argument that one side warrants massive American subsidies/weaponry to defeat the other is what is absurd.

The winner in this war has, again, been China. Food/energy spikes have not hurt their geopolitical aims.

Ag with kids said:

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texagbeliever said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Conscription. Because nothing says I want to die for my cause then being told you have to die for our cause. Doesn't that fly in the face of the this is just what the Ukrainians want argument?

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Doesn't that work the other way with the Russians?

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No. Because im not trying to justify supporting the Russian side. All the Ukraine war hawks have said this is what the people want. If they don't want to die today for the cause it will be prudent to work on a peace that allows them to have the best opportunity of freedom in the future. That is the other side to this.

REPORTING: Russia launches second pre-dawn missile attack in three days.https://t.co/5fjlhbtnQw

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2023

LOL. Such a great use of American taxpayer dollars.

Rossticus posted this in the thread that shall not be named, but it fits well here too. Some Russians seem to be feeling increasingly isolated from the supposed BRICS alliance

Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is a war criminal. We do not have to discuss that. He started the war in Donbas by his own admission ("I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war") back in 2014 and is responsible for the deaths of 10,000s of people, including the people on MH17.

But… pic.twitter.com/Mw2N5JT5vK

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 2, 2023

GAC06 said:

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Rossticus posted this in the thread that shall not be named, but it fits well here too. Some Russians seem to be feeling increasingly isolated from the supposed BRICS alliance

Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is a war criminal. We do not have to discuss that. He started the war in Donbas by his own admission ("I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war") back in 2014 and is responsible for the deaths of 10,000s of people, including the people on MH17.

But… pic.twitter.com/Mw2N5JT5vK

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 2, 2023

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Give Nortex a little more time to respond. Its 9:30PM in Russia and he needs a little more time to get his marching orders.

GAC06 said:

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Rossticus posted this in the thread that shall not be named, but it fits well here too. Some Russians seem to be feeling increasingly isolated from the supposed BRICS alliance

Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is a war criminal. We do not have to discuss that. He started the war in Donbas by his own admission ("I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war") back in 2014 and is responsible for the deaths of 10,000s of people, including the people on MH17.

But… pic.twitter.com/Mw2N5JT5vK

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 2, 2023

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I am sure you expect me to respond to that but I don't know why. Not all Russians know/understand what is going on/why/how, any more than all Americans/Aggies do. Tendar, LOL.

Meanwhile, among those not in the bribe/kickback/graft business in/about Kiev, Ukrainians are suffering mightily;

Quote:

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The scene in the pawn shop illustrates the crisis of growing poverty in Ukraine, the reality of which stands in contrast to the surface bustle of Kyiv's busy restaurants and bars where it is often hard to get a table, with many living a precarious existence.

Poverty increased from 5.5% to 24.2% in Ukraine in 2022, pushing 7.1 million more people into poverty with the worst impact out of sight in rural villages, according to a recent report by the World Bank. With unemployment unofficially at 36% and inflation hitting 26.6% at the end of 2022, the institution's regional country director for eastern Europe, Arup Banerji, had warned that poverty could soar.

Behind his window in Treasure, Stepanov describes the hardships experienced even by those who have work. "The price of everything has gone up. Food is the most expensive and then it is fuel for the car. Some things have gone up by 40-50%. Before the war my wife would go to the supermarket to shop and it would cost 200 hryvnia, now the same shop costs 400-500."

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But anyway, back to Russia v. China. Yes, it's nuanced, but ultimately…the big winner in this war is China, Xiden's command element.

Quote:

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Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, claimed at a news conference at the UN on Wednesday that Nato was trying "to break Russia apart" but was actually making it stronger, not least on the global stage. However, for all Moscow's belligerent rhetoric, it is also constrained by its need to avoid worsening its foreign relations.

It is taking pains to avoid any direct provocation of Nato. Moscow has, for example, held back from launching attacks on weapons routes to Ukraine. Even at the peak of Russia's air campaign, it avoided flights too close to Ukraine's western borders, lest one of its aircraft strayed into Nato airspace.

Even nations that Moscow once considered second-rank powers now have an effective veto on aspects of Russian policy, or at least the chance to demand a high price for their assistance. Turkey turns a blind eye to sanctions-busting smuggling in and out of Russia, for example, and Iran sells it drones. In return, the Russians are having to accept that Ankara and Tehran are increasingly active in regions where Moscow once held sway and generally make nice to regimes that can be considered "frenemies" at best.

China is gaining more traction the longer the war continues and the deeper the damage to Russia's economy. Despite upbeat communiqus after President Xi's visit to Russia last month, Beijing is still not supplying weapons, ammunition, or even the kind of unconditional political support that Putin wanted.

Instead, Xi openly forced the Russians to dial down their barely-veiled nuclear threats and last week had an hour-long phone conversation with Zelensky, their first since the invasion. Beijing's evident desire someday to be the broker of peace consolidating its claims to have become a true global power may be a lifeline for Putin, but also a noose if he begins to look too intransigent or unrealistic a partner. In the words of a Russian political observer: "Xi's not yet telling Putin what to do but he is certainly signalling what he had better not do."

While both sides have considerable tactical freedom then, they are strategically limited. Ukraine must launch a major attack; Russia must try and deny them a crowd-pleasing victory.

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More here, at an archived link.

Unlike some, I try not to just post propaganda. Regardless, it's interesting that here we are approaching mid-May and…now there are rumors the vaunted Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' is going to wind up getting pushed back to a summer schedule.

I guess those pointless/non-targeted missile attacks lately really did hit some ammo storage reserves.

Quote:

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I try not to just post propaganda.

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Good one.

But yes I agree it looks like Russia is running very low on allies.

I'd say that any portrayal of Girkin or Viktor Imantovich Alksnis as Russians who don't "know/understand what is going on/why/how, any more than all Americans/Aggies do" is disingenuous at its best, if that is indeed what you were inferring. You can perhaps question their motive but not their credibility from a standpoint of knowing what is going on.

And Tendar, despite not sharing the views of the side you prefer to source your info from, is equally credible to some of those you post (who have relayed their share of incorrect info). Failure to share one's viewpoint isn't an automatic invalidation of the information shared. His post was a literal share of a post made by Alksnis and amplified by Girkin. Flippant dismissal of the source doesn't change the authenticity of it.

How can you compare Russians actually in the know with stormtrooper twitter guy's made up "source"?

Rossticus said:

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I'd say that any portrayal of Girkin or Viktor Imantovich Alksnis as Russians who don't "know/understand what is going on/why/how, any more than all Americans/Aggies do" is disingenuous at its best, if that is indeed what you were inferring. You can perhaps question their motive but not their credibility from a standpoint of knowing what is going on.

And Tendar, despite not sharing the views of the side you prefer to source your info from, is equally credible to some of those you post (who have relayed their share of incorrect info). Failure to share one's viewpoint isn't an automatic invalidation of the information shared. His post was a literal share of a post made by Alksnis and amplified by Girkin. Flippant dismissal of the source doesn't change the authenticity of it.

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Had to clean my monitor that I just got this sermon from you, on the topic of the Biden-Ukraine-Russia war.

Regardless of the hypocrisy, I don't disagree, to the bolded points. Girkin has, just fyi, been dismissive/negative about the war for some time. Russian intelligence officer with an outspoken anti-war view. Hmm, sure, his perspective is probably well informed, if not dispositive, imho, just as I feel about, oh, LTC "oh say can you see" Vindman on 'our' side. I don't trust Girkin any more than I do Zelensky, Biden or Putin. You're welcome of course to expound about how wrong I am for this opinion.

Irena Alksnis is…a propagandist/media talking head I think. Seriously, I dunno if she is closer in credibility to Dan Rather or Tucker Carlson. Whatevs. In November she said it would be a 10 year war to bulldoze Ukraine. I genuinely don't understand/really care about Russian media shifts. If their media types are remotely similar to ours/Europe's, they are generally not real bright observers, I would expect.

It's not real hard to find a hot take daily pronouncing doom for either side, from said side, in the media. Thank you for joining this thread.

GAC06 said:

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I try not to just post propaganda.

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Good one.

But yes I agree it looks like Russia is running very low on allies.

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Do you think Russia's economy is doing (or will do) better, or worse than ours this year, or next year?

nortex97 said:

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GAC06 said:

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I try not to just post propaganda.

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Good one.

But yes I agree it looks like Russia is running very low on allies.

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Do you think Russia's economy is doing (or will do) better, or worse than ours this year, or next year?

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That's a on-brand topic change. Worse, but it's tough to prove when they hide or manipulate the data. What happens with our economy has a lot to do with our disastrous covid policy and very little to do with Russia or Ukraine

nortex97 said:

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[
Irena Alksnis is…a propagandist/media talking head I think. Seriously, I dunno if she is closer in credibility to Dan Rather or Tucker Carlson. Whatevs. In November she said it would be a 10 year war to bulldoze Ukraine.

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Speaking of "bright observers", if you're going to try to rebut my point, at least make an effort and pay attention to the information you're angling to discredit. Viktor Alksnis is an entirely different person from Irena Alksnis.

Hopefully this oversight isn't indicative of your due diligence in sourcing all the info you predicate your opinions on. That would be… disappointing.

Secondarily, Girkin isn't opposed to the war (for all practical purposes he helped start it); he's merely opposed to the way this war has been waged and the incompetence displayed thus far. Girkin has no problem with a war on Ukraine, just a problem with one that's become something of a domestic train wreck for Russia, in addition to an international embarrassment. He wants reformation, efficiency, and improvement. Not "peace", and has no love for Ukraine or Ukranians. In that way he's displayed the same sentiment as many in the Russian military and intelligence communities.

You're welcome for joining the thread.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Alksnis

"Viktor Imantovich Alksnis (Russian: , Latvian: Viktors Alksnis; born 21 June 1950) is a Russian politician and former Soviet Air Force colonel of Latvian descent.[1][2] He is the chairman of Russian Center of Free Technologies,[3] an organization intended to promote Free Software and open standards in Russia. He is a former member of the USSR Supreme Soviet, a member of the Russian All-People's Union and has also represented the Rodina (Motherland-National Patriotic Union) party in the Russian State Duma. From 2003 to 2007, he represented the People's Union party in the Fourth Duma.

Due to his political views and personal style, Alksnis was nicknamed "the Black Colonel", an allusion to the Soviet term "Black Colonels" (Russian: ) for the Greek military junta of 1967-1974.

Viktor Alksnis was a strong opponent of the breakup of the Soviet Union and of the independence of the Baltic States.He claims that the Baltic states are apartheid regimes, that the Russian population in these states suffers repression.

In 1989 he was elected into the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. In 1990 he was elected to the Supreme Council of the Republic of Latvia. In 1990, he was one of the founders of a hard-line group "Soyuz" within the USSR Supreme Soviet. He once proposed the ousting of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev from power, dissolving the parliament, outlawing all parties, the declaration of martial law and the handing of power to a Military "Committee of National Salvation", which would avoid the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

He has described the internationally non-recognized Transnistrian Republic as the base from which the restoration of the Soviet Union would begin.

In later years Alksnis claimed to be a principal figure behind the Riga OMON, known for opposing the secession of Latvia from the USSR and actions such as the Soviet OMON assaults on Lithuanian border posts.

He was designated persona non grata in Latvia after he left the country in 1992., in Pravda, 1 November 2002. Since that time he has taken part in Russian politics, representing left-wing and nationalist positions. Alksnis was one of the leaders of the National Salvation Front that united nationalist and communist movements that opposed Yeltsin's policies. In 2005, he was named persona non grata in Ukraine as well, after he called for a Russian-Ukrainian border revision while speaking at a rally in Simferopol, Crimea."


…but "whatevs".

Ok, I was mobile, enjoy your big 'gotcha' trophy moment. Got the wrong guy/gal (because I don't read Russian media/social media).

Per your own twitter description of him from Tendar (who apparently hates him):

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But when it comes to military assessment as well as the political ramification of it he is sometimes correct, especially in reference to the latest UNGA voting where Russia experienced her worst political defeat in the history of the UNGA. Girkin openly attacks Putin and makes him responsible for the political (and previously the military) blunders. Check out the picture showing his translated statement.

The only reason why Girkin is still alive are his connections to the GRU as well as his relative fame among the so-called "Novo-Rossiya" community. As a GRU-colonel he enjoys certain privileges other (non-intelligence community) Russians cannot even dream of. But everything has limits. So I wouldn't be surprised when news of his defenestration will go through the networks, soon.

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So, a connected famous oligarch who is mad at Putin hasn't been killed and mouthed off...again. And a 5 day old UN vote China made which...is ultimately meaningless but might have made their visit/talks with Zelensky more agreeable.

BTW, this Alksnis was (apparently)...a bit over a month ago advocating a full mobilization in Russia and a nuclear strike.

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Meanwhile, other experts think otherwise. So, according to the former FSB colonel Igor Strelkov, Russia is considering two options: to conduct a full mobilization or use weapons of mass destruction. The only factor that excludes these options is the outcome in which the Republicans come to power in the United States. Namely, Donald Trump. At the same time, there are also deterrent factors for conscription for Russia economic difficulties in maintaining a large number of new mobilizants.

Former aviation colonel Viktor Alksnis says that in order to change the current picture, it is necessary to use nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction, as well as to carry out strikes against strategic objects of Ukraine.

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So...I don't really think his analyses are...consistent/great, but you may disagree. Russians in general are prone to hyperbole in rhetoric, imho, but that is a stereotype I realize.

I again don't really follow the internal politics around Moscow but my suspicion is that, as here, it is in Putin's interest to keep some folks on his flanks for more/less extreme actions. I dunno, again, maybe this is a big deal but I also think Putin has mismanaged the war/commanders yet doesn't really care about the losses/deaths involved.

It seems likely some Russians are also positioning themselves with various 'ruling class' types to be a successor/significant faction to profit from whatever causes him to leave office.

I think the point is that even some of the hardliners in the political and military classes who were previously supportive of Putin's course of action are beginning to question whether the juice is worth the squeeze. These Russians are becoming more outspoken on Russia's increasing isolation and their trepidation regarding the benefit inherent in continuing to press for max objectives.

Is it a canary in the coal mine or just chatter that gets a few more guys a flying lesson? Can't be sure at the moment but more people seem to be feeling emboldened to voice mild dissension, to include those who are traditionally Russian hawks. There's usually an underlying reason for shifts in tone like this that go beyond the obvious but I'm not big on rampant speculation. I'm interested to see if it's quashed or if it continues.

I agree with you that we may be seeing some movement by individuals to establish beneficial alignments for a post-Putin Russia. The fact that they feel inclined to act as such indicates that they may, at least in their opinions, see cracks in the foundation of Putin's grasp on power. Whether this is justified or ill advised is another matter entirely.

That's all fair.

I would again look for more...consistent admonishments/indicia from given individuals that might 'matter' but I could see some folks with various economic interests/franchises (such as this guy) who might be motivated to look to a post-sanction regime if they feel safe saying so.

I do think the pressure is higher on Zelenksy's political operation/crew, to the limited extent it is independent of a major power, but I could be wrong. If there's not something to trumpet as a military achievement in the next 30-60 days, I think this war will likely be concluded this calendar year, mercifully.

However, the Biden (%^&#) plan seems to be to keep this going as-is at least until close to November 2024. Milley today:

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So you've got essentially a situation along a frontline that extends, I don't know, probably Washington, D.C. to Atlanta, something like that. It's quite a ways. And that front line hasn't changed hands. It's essentially been stalemated. And then the Ukrainians asked us for help to build up their force so that they had the capability, anyway, of conducting offensive operations with combined arms maneuver with heavy forces, mechanized armor and infantry. We've done that, and we have not yet seen what that's going to result inyou know, this planning. But I'm not going to discuss that in this form, so we'll see.

Then the question becomes, how does it end? Let's just say for the sake of argument that there is an offensive. And now you're dealing in probabilities and speculation, which is always a dangerous thing to do. But I think that it's fair to say, if there were an offensive, that there's a possibility of a variety of outcomes.

Clearly one of those outcomes could achieve significant success and collapse the Russian frontline across the board. And that's happened before in previous warsWorld War I, for example. So there's a possibility of that. Then there's a possibility of partial success. There's a possibility of limited success. There's a possibility of no success. So all of these are ranges of outcome if there were an offensive operation.

Then the opposite is truemaybe the Ukrainians are going to do a defensive operation, and the Russians would have a great challenge mounting an offensive operation. So we're going to see what the future holds.

I do think, though, that the probability of either side achieving their political objectiveswar is about politics through the sole use of military meansI think that's going to be very difficult, very challenging. And frankly, I don't think the probability of that is likely in this year.

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Caveat: that's someone I have utterly no respect for, and believe he is prone to hyperbole/self-aggrandizing statements etc. Still, he's fairly well informed right now, by any standard.

I don't think the Russians (the ones running the government/military/war) are happy about being manipulated/used by the Chinese, but it is what it is.

You'll catch no disagreement from me regarding the isht job done by Biden, his administration, his advisors, etc. where this matter is concerned (or any other matter, as far as that goes).

texagbeliever said:

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Ag with kids said:

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texagbeliever said:

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nortex97 said:

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In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home."

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Rumors this was about forcing those Ukrainians conscripted into military service to go to Bakhmut to the meat grinder. who knows though…Ukrainian media wouldn't be allowed to report on that.

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Conscription. Because nothing says I want to die for my cause then being told you have to die for our cause. Doesn't that fly in the face of the this is just what the Ukrainians want argument?

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Doesn't that work the other way with the Russians?

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No. Because im not trying to justify supporting the Russian side. All the Ukraine war hawks have said this is what the people want. If they don't want to die today for the cause it will be prudent to work on a peace that allows them to have the best opportunity of freedom in the future. That is the other side to this.

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Do you think maybe that Russia have 3 times the population might mean they have more warm bodies than just pure recruitment by Ukraine can counter?

Dangerous possible escalation.

Biden’s diplomats are missing in action…they’ve allowed themselves to be shoved aside as the war expands. https://t.co/FIjWvaJTis

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) May 3, 2023

I think Ukraine is unlikely to succeed by any reasonable standard of 'success' in its big, anticipated, thoroughly unsurprising 'counter-offensive.' They are under pressure for some sort of PR win though, despite having lost a lot of ammo/logistical reserves to the recent missile strikes, and functionally being on their third army at the front (the first 2 having largely been sacrificed), with a potpourri of heavy western tanks that are unlikely to even be able to safely cross many bridges in Ukraine now.

It was a small/tiny drone, launched from 10-50 miles of the Kremlin, it would appear, that basically 'attacked' the flag at the top of the building.

There is a palpable desperation to create this pr/spin/narrative, which could create a real escalation. This drone was unlikely to have been launched from the Ukraine, and likely wasn't US-built, but again our diplomatic/senior state department folks are…inept at best. See: Victoria Nuland. This is a dangerous time for the world, to say the least.

My guess is Russia will respond more violently with attacks on the government structures/buildings in Kiev.