Thx, it is amusing to be likened to Putin and a pink hat wearer for…sharing information on a message board from another perspective that…is not the one someone else wants to read. Or 'unbiased' or 'objective or something, although no one can tell me of a neutral source of news coverage even that is acceptable to the definition. Because after 'Russia russia Russia' and Fauci Flu the patriotic thing to do is just trust whatever narrative the US Government-Democrats-MSM is spouting, duh.
On to today's update. Some of our Ukrainian war experts were dismissive jet ski's could have been used in the attack on civilian infrastructure Ukraine carried out on the Kerch bridge span, I guess because this was not reported with enough fanfare about the brilliance of the green sweat-suited one's planning/operations. Meh:
Who really knows though? Maybe it was a Remus and SAS frogmen were involved (at least in planning). The point is one of two road span's are down (with plans to at least temporarily repair it within a few weeks), and rail traffic is running on time. The attack mainly gave some positive narrative spin, killed a couple civilians, and ensured the grain deal would die, for now.
Quote:
Also, the railway bridge that runs adjacent to the roadway is fully operational and trains are still running on schedule. The current reports state that Russia will construct a temporary roadway over the destroyed span while the final span will be lifted into place later on, some reports claiming September. However, as early as tonight they are planning to make the bridge operational to one way traffic on the intact roadway.
Also, it should be mentioned that as of this writing Odessa is being heavily bombarded in a possible retaliatory strike, with facilities on fire:
Though there is rumor that a much larger attack is planned within the next 72 hours as a true response, once the appropriate targets have been fully configured.
So, what are the consequences of the second Kerch attack?
Apart from the fact that two civilians died in the terrorist attack, with a fourteen year-old Russian girl named Angelina from the Belgorod region now orphaned after losing her parents. Russian troops are already writing her name on shells in her honor:
Quote:
Angelina, the girl who survived the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge!
Today, Russian artillery is taking revenge for you. And tomorrow, we won't be surprised if your name is written on our "Daggers" and "Kalibr".
The enemy will be punished and defeated!
The other biggest consequence is the apparent final termination of the grain deal:
Quote:
The humanitarian corridor though the northern Black Sea has been terminated. The joint coordination center in Istanbul will be closed. Russia no longer guarantees safety of navigation in the region.
Peskov claims it is permanent, and that the coordination task force with Turkey has even been closed on this account. Personally, I'm doubtful, but we'll see. There are always high emotions after such an event and rash decisions are made to either grandstand or give the appearance of strength, but ultimately more negotiations will likely happen down the line, the only question of how soon.
I agree, and expect a 'new' grain deal to be most likely announced in the meeting in Ankara next month.
Quote:
Russia wants to give the appearance of interest in grain deal talks for the sake of its allies. This puts Russia in a position of two weak moves. Either they continue talks and look doubly weak because now it shows that even large-scale terror attacks on their infrastructure have no effect on their red lines; or: they completely discard the grain deal but now take a big prestige hit with their allies like Turkey and even China which recently signaled it greatly favors the grain deal extension.
The ultimate question though will be who stands to gain the most from the actual practical realpolitik effects of this, rather than the 'appearance' of having gained something. For instance, we know that Ukraine loses upwards of $500 million per month:
I don't think that is true. I think most Ukrainian grain is shipped via rail anyway, and is likely unimpaired by the expiration of the grain deal on the date of the Ukrainian strike on a major bridge. In fact, most of it wound up going to Spain over the past few months, to feed pigs I have read, not to Africa etc. But anyway, we must be 'objective' I have learned:
Quote:
For instance, this new Politico article accuses Russia of pulling out of the grain deal on monday, and incredibly doesn't mention the word bridge even once:
Quote:
Russia on Monday pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a U.N.-brokered accord that has made it possible for Ukraine to export tens of millions of tons of grains and oilseeds over the past year even as the war rages on.
The deal was vital to keeping food flowing from Ukraine a major breadbasket to the wider world. But Russia, claiming that its own food and fertilizer exports were being hurt by "hidden" Western sanctions, had already effectively strangled the deal before finally killing it off.
Hours later, the Kremlin warned that it could no longer guarantee the safety of shipping in the northwestern Black Sea.
Note how they attempt to reframe the pull out as revolving around Russia's complaints of its own grain exports being 'hurt' by Western sanctions. It's incredible that a day after such a large terrorist attack which blew up two civilians and sent a young girl into a coma is now completely ignored with the standard yellow press lies by omission.
Typically such articles are filled with 'contextualizing' fodder; they didn't think it even remotely contextually relevant to add in the bridge attack?
Of course, we know that only a measly 3% of the grain actually went to Africa or 'countries in need', the lion's share gobbled up by greedy Europe. Even the above Politico article's attempt to contradict this falls flat on its face, as their "proof" lies in a URL to some claimed study which doesn't work, and leads to a log in screen. What a 'professional' outfit.
This sounds accurate:
Quote:
There is the possibility perhaps that Putin will now take a fully 'hard line' and refuse to renew the deal in the future under any circumstances in light of the Kerch attack. Perhaps Russia has gamed out the scenarios and with the upcoming fall and winter seasons, plans to again bring Ukraine to its knees with full-on economic-infrastructure multi-vector attacks, which will include destroying Ukraine's economy and renewed missile attacks on the power infrastructure.
This is likely because I believe that next year will be the year we all expected 2023 to be, in terms of big Russian offensives. I don't say that in a wishful thinking manner, simply moving the goalposts of this year to next. I've already been building up a volume of theory-crafting over the course of the past few months comprised of reports about how Russia is slowly building up its offensive potential this year, in terms of the ongoing stealth mobilization, Shoigu's huge new expansions of the armed forces into two new military districts compromising one new army and one new corps. Now that we finally have good data on Ukraine's own massive losses and attrition over the course of the last few months, it's more obvious than ever that next year will be the year for Russia to truly put the pressure on to collapse the AFU, while the remainder of this year will be the continuation of the preparatory work.
One of the reasons, by the way, which I failed to explain in my earlier exegeses on the matter, is that all these new 'stealth mobilized troops' Shoigu is putting together likely require a much longer amount of training time. The 'official mobilization' from last fall was for reservists who already had their compulsory year's worth of training. But the new volunteers, we have no real data on what they are. If some of them are just outright 'enlistments' straight off the street, these are people that would require training from scratch before they're even combat ready. A minimum of one year training would be required for such people, though they could do "basic" training in 3-5 months and then be processed to the 'rear' of some combat zone for further onsite MOS training. I assume though that many of these new 'volunteers' are reservists who weren't on the roll-call of last year's mobilization, so they would be re-trained and re-certified in 3+ months give or take.
But Seymour Hersh seems to think it could happen next month:
Quote:
The Russian army will easily "face" the Ukrainian forces and launch its "large-scale offensive" probably in August, Pulitzer-winning journalist Hersh (USA) said, citing his source.
According to his interlocutor, an American "official", it will be then that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to face the "real problem". Cluster bullets, the source said, "have no chance" to change the course of the conflict, and the White House "wrong" with its assessment of the situation, writes RIA Novosti.
Americans can judge the unsuccessful course of the "counterattack" for Ukraine by the fact that stories from the war zone have disappeared from the front pages of major newspapers, Hersh said
Hmm,
he added:
Quote:
Let's start with a silly fear but one that does signal the Democratic Party's growing sense of panic about the 2024 Presidential election. It was expressed to me by someone with excellent party credentials: that Trump could be the Republican nominee and will select Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his running mate. The strange duo will then sweep to a huge victory over a stumbling Joe Biden, and also take down many of the party's House and Senate candidates.
As for real signs of acute Democratic anxiety: Joe Biden got what he needed before the NATO summit this week by somehow turning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inside out and getting him to rebuff Vladimir Putin by announcing that he would support NATO membership for Sweden.
The public story for Biden's face-saving coup was talk about agreeing to sell American F-16 fighter bombers to Turkey.
I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan's turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the International Monetary Fund. "Biden had to have a victory and Turkey is in acute financial stress," an official with direct knowledge of the transaction told me. Turkey lost 100,000 people in the earthquake last February, and has four million buildings to rebuild. "What could be better than Erdogan"under Biden's tutelage, the official asked, "finally having seen the light and realizing he is better off with NATO and Western Europe?" Reporters were told, according to the New York Times, that Biden called Erdogan while flying to Europe on Sunday. Biden's coup, the Times reported, would enable him to say that Putin got "exactly what he did not want: an expanded, more direct NATO alliance." There was no mention of bribery.
That would be interesting. We all know (though some won't admit) that much of this war is about American politics, which is why dissent here is so strongly resisted I guess, but a Trump-RFK Jr ticket would be…interesting.
Much more at the link. I'd encourage readers who can handle heresy to check it out, including even the comments, though the UFA committing war crimes (executing a fleeing family) might be tough to take. Life goes on.
