twk said:
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The reality is that Eastern Europe is going to be a mess under pretty much every scenario and unless you want to commit a massive amount of US troops and risk nuclear war there isn't much we can do about it. The good news is it has very little impact on us. Russia is never going to be a power capable of projecting force to threaten the US (beyond nukes) in our lifetimes again. Nothing is going to change that.
Outside of Ukraine, how is Eastern Europe a mess right now? The only mess is the one that Putin has created. Everywhere else in Eastern Europe, that falls under the NATO umbrella, things are looking pretty good.
"Right now" isn't the question. The question is the future. If Russia becomes a failed state then someone will fill the vacuum. History has shown that over and over again. Do you want that to be the US and NATO? Ok, where does that end? How far do you want the empire to extend? That's effectively what you are talking about. Maldova is a mess and about to get messier too btw. Belarus is a mess. Romania has issues. I wouldn't consider the Slavic countries and Greece, Albania, and North Macedonia to be trouble free either and they are all weak. Poland and the Baltics are doing pretty well as are Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Turkey is the most likely country to fill a void if Russia falters. They are barely hanging on to NATO, they have a legit military, and they are strategically placed.
Next most likely is whomever takes over from Putin or one of the new warlords in that aftermath makes a move. Maybe Belarus as well. Who knows?
The more likely scenario is warring factions within those countries flaring up and fighting for control both within their countries and pushing into others. That's the history. There is a reason Ukraine for instance has only really been a country of its own for a few decades out of the last 1000 years. Those countries geographically and demographically will always be pawns of others or to be in a state of civil war. Mainly though they are countries with very, very little US interests involved. Who is in control of Ukraine or Belarus or Latvia doesn't move the needle for us when you compare it to say, Taiwan. We actually need Taiwan for Semiconductor manufacturing.
We have to prioritize and most of the arguments made around this war seem to focus on trying to win a war we already won with Russia 30 years ago. I remember going to East Berlin as a kid and having a Russian officer question me at Checkpoint Charlie in the '80s. We are so far from anything like that it isn't even worth discussing it and that isn't going to happen again.
The second argument seems to be more of a "Team America" type ideal of playing world cop and spreading freedom across the globe. Have we not learned that lesson enough times to realize it just doesn't work? Hell it took me a long time to come to that conclusion as well but I got there. Hell I grew up a military brat with a Dad that served 28 years in the AF and 3 Tours in Nam. I was all about Reagan and both Bushes and let's kick Saddam's ass. Some of those conflicts made a lot of sense but this one does not. The older I get the more I look back at the wisdom of Eisenhower's "Military Industrial Complex" speech and realize what he meant. We need to prioritize our military and what it is being used for and find ways to avoid using it when we don't have to. We don't have the stomach to be an empire so let's quit acting like one.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan