Rossticus said:
Except that grain dust won't explode like that, to my knowledge, in an open air dump pit. It needs to be densely concentrated in an area of low ventilation like a silo to ignite explosively.
The fact that Polish/NATO radar can track everything within 500km (this site being within 40km), Eastern European countries, including Poland, speaking with assurance that missiles were involved, and missile fragments being found immediately at the site convinced me that this was a missile incident of some sort.
Could an impact have set off and been exacerbated by a silo explosion? Certainly. But I don't see this as being purely an agricultural incident based on the evidence at hand thus far.
Grain dust explosion is way too much of a reach I think. Possible? Perhaps in a lab setting with an concerted effort to make it so with that size space. It's the same concept behind our thermobaric weapons. I don't see the dispersion variable being perfect enough in this hole to create an explosion enough to derail heavy machinery.
Occams Razor always gets a first nod in my book. Lots of missiles flying around lately. Made by second rate tech and facilities. Was just a matter of time till a mistake happened.
And this is obviously a mistake. An errant missile off track or deviated by close AA. I would think this pretty obvious.
Act of war? Depends on the interpretation of the host nation. "Acts of War" occur multiple times every single year. They are ignored until too egregious or it is convenient enough to address them directly. What I am saying is pretty much all acts of war these days are political tools and used accordingly.
