Poland hit by 2 Russian Missiles

24,137 Views | 315 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Robert L. Peters
Eliminatus
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Rossticus said:

Except that grain dust won't explode like that, to my knowledge, in an open air dump pit. It needs to be densely concentrated in an area of low ventilation like a silo to ignite explosively.

The fact that Polish/NATO radar can track everything within 500km (this site being within 40km), Eastern European countries, including Poland, speaking with assurance that missiles were involved, and missile fragments being found immediately at the site convinced me that this was a missile incident of some sort.

Could an impact have set off and been exacerbated by a silo explosion? Certainly. But I don't see this as being purely an agricultural incident based on the evidence at hand thus far.


Grain dust explosion is way too much of a reach I think. Possible? Perhaps in a lab setting with an concerted effort to make it so with that size space. It's the same concept behind our thermobaric weapons. I don't see the dispersion variable being perfect enough in this hole to create an explosion enough to derail heavy machinery.

Occams Razor always gets a first nod in my book. Lots of missiles flying around lately. Made by second rate tech and facilities. Was just a matter of time till a mistake happened.

And this is obviously a mistake. An errant missile off track or deviated by close AA. I would think this pretty obvious.

Act of war? Depends on the interpretation of the host nation. "Acts of War" occur multiple times every single year. They are ignored until too egregious or it is convenient enough to address them directly. What I am saying is pretty much all acts of war these days are political tools and used accordingly.
GeeBee
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"Hey, what's going on with these elections? "


SQUIRREL!
The Debt
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Quote:

Oceans Razor always gets a first nod in my book. Lots of missiles flying around lately. Made by second rate tech and facilities. Was just a matter of time till a mistake happened.

Oceans Razor is the 4th film of the series. Somewhat gritter when the heist gets caught and the casino mob bosses take a razor to Danny Ocean.
Blackbeard94
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Is that not more likely a dust explosion? Tractor jostled the structure when driving onto the scales, dust cloud, boom?
CanyonAg77
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Quote:

Grain dust explosion is way too much of a reach I think. Possible? Perhaps in a lab setting with an concerted effort to make it so with that size space. It's the same concept behind our thermobaric weapons. I don't see the dispersion variable being perfect enough in this hole to create an explosion enough to derail heavy machinery.

I think the reach is assuming a Russian missile landed right in the middle of a grain pit.

It's not on railroad tracks, it's a grain trailer that got flipped on it's side. Depending on load, it might not be very heavy.
LMCane
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Sea Speed said:

Rapier108 said:

Amazing how some here want it to be a Russian weapon, heck even a deliberate Russian attack, so we can have World War III.

If Russia was going to attack Poland, it would not be dropping a missile or two on some random farm. They would have attacked the supply base NATO is using to send weapons to Poland, and they would have used either a large number of missiles, or a nuke. If it was a Russian missile(s), almost certain it was one which either went stupid, or was incorrectly targeted.


Anyone hoping for ww3 is a despicable human.
many Russkie propagandists DAILY call for World War Three and launching nuclear weapons on London and Washington.

I'm not talking the fringe radicals we have here in the USA, I am talking about popular propagandists on government television and radio stations.

head over to the Ukraine thread and you can see hundreds of hours of the Russkies fantasizing about destroying NATO
LMCane
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Yukon Cornelius said:

Lol. You think Russia is using anti air missiles to bomb Poland?
It's hilarious that you are making fun of someone for claiming that Russia uses anti-air missiles to bombard ground targets.

seemingly you are unaware that Russia USES SAMs as ground to ground missiles because of their low stocks in normal cruise missiles at this point in the war.

Yes, Actually Russia uses SAMS as ground to ground missiles
CanyonAg77
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https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/preventing-grain-dust-explosions-2.html

Quote:

Dust explosions usually occur at grain transfer points in bucket elevators or enclosed conveyors where small dust particles become dislodged from kernels due to tumbling, agitation, and kernel impacts, as fast-flowing grain hits bucket elevator cups or changes direction in drag or belt conveyors.
Rossticus
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RebelE Infantry
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Rossticus said:




Weirdly enough at the same time the pentagon is saying "we don't know."

For the record I am almost certainly convinced that this was either a shoot down or a SAM miss that landed across the border and ended in tragedy. Either way unintentional and a tragic accident.



PS disregard obviously biased Twitter account and just watch the video.
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Yukon Cornelius
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And so then you think they targeted a grain silo with their limited supply? Or is it more likely a AA missile from Ukraine?

But any thought outside of "RUSSIA DID IT!!!" Is met with sophomoric name calling.

Last thought, do you really think Russia in the midsts of losing the ground war want to involve Poland for the sake of two missiles a grain silo?
Waffledynamics
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Nobody has any idea what's happening.
MouthBQ98
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Grain elevator explosion is from fine combustible dust suspended in the air at the right concentration, then ignited by a spark or flame and the initial explosion throws more fine dust into the air, creating a man expanding fireball.

It is a low energy slow explosion but with a lot of flame, and the pressure can blow open a building or silo and make a huge fireball, but it isn't a sharp blast like a high explosive that would shred metal objects and cause more blast effect and less burning and scorching.

With enough long range missiles, one is eventually bound to have a guidance or navigation error and go astray.
CanyonAg77
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Quote:

And so then you think they targeted a grain silo
Not even the "silo", but the pit where you dump grain to send to the silo.

(It's not really a silo)
Rossticus
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NOTE Article 4 NOT Article 5

Rossticus
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MouthBQ98 said:

Grain elevator explosion is from fine combustible dust suspended in the air at the right concentration, then ignited by a spark or flame and the initial explosion throws more fine dust into the air, creating a man expanding fireball.

It is a low energy slow explosion but with a lot of flame, and the pressure can blow open a building or silo and make a huge fireball, but it isn't a sharp blast like a high explosive that would shred metal objects and cause more blast effect and less burning and scorching.

With enough long range missiles, one is eventually bound to have a guidance or navigation error and go astray.



So, characteristic or uncharacteristic of the damage shown in limited pics/video thus far?
The Debt
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CanyonAg77 said:

Quote:

And so then you think they targeted a grain silo
Not even the "silo", but the pit where you dump grain to send to the silo.

(It's not really a silo)

Russia is super incompetent - western media, last 8 months
Russia launches strike with surgical precision - western media, last 24 hrs
Yukon Cornelius
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Good point.

I wonder how many people claiming it's Russia have pulled up a map to see distances.
Rossticus
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Yukon Cornelius said:

Good point.

I wonder how many people claiming it's Russia have pulled up a map to see distances.


I wonder if you know that Russia is firing missiles from eastern Belarus to Lviv. Check your map and get back to me.
Yukon Cornelius
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Yes I'm aware. It's just a question. If it came from there I'm sure it was tracked. But because there is doubt again evidence is pointing to either debris or Ukraine AA
Rossticus
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The Debt said:

CanyonAg77 said:

Quote:

And so then you think they targeted a grain silo
Not even the "silo", but the pit where you dump grain to send to the silo.

(It's not really a silo)

Russia is super incompetent - western media, last 8 months
Russia launches strike with surgical precision - western media, last 24 hrs


Nobody said it's with precision. It's a giant inept screwup on Russia's part because Russia really does suck the big hairy one when it comes to competence.

How's that feint coming along, BTW?
Waffledynamics
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I don't think anyone actually believes Russia intentionally launched missiles at Poland. Russia has, however, launched them at Ukraine. Somehow, some of these missiles have just landed in Poland. However it happened, it's a problem.

Perhaps Russia could stop launching missiles in impotent rage and just go home.
txaggie_08
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The Debt said:

CanyonAg77 said:

Quote:

And so then you think they targeted a grain silo
Not even the "silo", but the pit where you dump grain to send to the silo.

(It's not really a silo)

Russia is super incompetent - western media, last 8 months
Russia launches strike with surgical precision - western media, last 24 hrs
Wait, what? Who said it was a precision strike of a grain silo? Everyone here is saying it's most likely an errant missile. If Russia was dumb enough to target Poland and hit an inconsequential grain yard, then they really are idiots.
Rossticus
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Little Rock Ag
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Rossticus said:

NOTE Article 4 NOT Article 5


Sounds like the Poles are keeping calm. I can't wait for Biden to fan the flames.
Yukon Cornelius
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It is a massive difference between errant Russian missiles and missed Ukraine AA that landed in Poland.
The Debt
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It worked as intended. Ukrainian forces crystallized in Kiev and the west which allowed a Russian force 1/3rd the size neccessary to capture key assets.

"Dur dur they didn't capture the capital, it was a failure!" ...ignoring that capturing kiev was never a stated or operational objective.
Ag_07
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Rossticus said:

NOTE Article 4 NOT Article 5




What's the difference in Article 4 and Article 5?
The Debt
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Ag_07 said:

Rossticus said:

NOTE Article 4 NOT Article 5




What's the difference in Article 4 and Article 5?

Waffledynamics
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Yukon Cornelius said:

It is a massive difference between errant Russian missiles and missed Ukraine AA that landed in Poland.

Indeed, but we don't yet know which one it was, and there wouldn't be any air defense missiles in the air if Russia wasn't firing missiles into Ukraine anyway.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Article 4 is generally considered the starting point for major NATO operations, and therefore is intended for either emergencies or situations of urgency. It officially calls for consultation over military matters when "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened." Upon its invocation, the issue is discussed in the North Atlantic Council, and can formally lead into a joint decision or action (logistic, military, or otherwise) on behalf of the Alliance. It has been officially invoked seven times since the alliance's creation.
Quote:

The key section of the treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the casus foederis. It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in Europe or North America, to be an armed attack against them all. Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." The article has only been invoked once, but considered in a number of other cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty
RebelE Infantry
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Waffledynamics said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

It is a massive difference between errant Russian missiles and missed Ukraine AA that landed in Poland.

Indeed, but we don't yet know which one it was, and there wouldn't be any air defense missiles in the air if Russia wasn't firing missiles into Ukraine anyway.


You are correct that we don't know, but the bolded is weak sauce. This is a war.
The flames of the Imperium burn brightly in the hearts of men repulsed by degenerate modernity. Souls aflame with love of goodness, truth, beauty, justice, and order.
redcrayon
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Waffledynamics said:



Nobody has any idea what's happening.


We know.
Rossticus
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Found this, that makes an interesting point. Uke AD hits incoming Russian missile which then heads off course into Poland.

TheEternalPessimist
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redcrayon said:

Waffledynamics said:



Nobody has any idea what's happening.


We know.
We need to hurry up and fight 3rd World War first over this incident so we can then determine later all the circumstances including Russia's intent.

Treat it like a bloated government health bill....... Pass the bill first, and THEN find out what's in it!

Seems logical.
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