Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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ERCOT/Petro companies failed to ensure that their pipelines were on the "do not cut power, no not ever" list

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My understanding is that it was the NG suppiers' job to inform the power plants of that; certainly not ERCOT's.

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That's not how it works. ERCOT manages Real Time Operations (they are both the ISO & RTO). When ERCOT goes into controlled outages, areas that have been marked as critical infrastructure such as the capital building, jails, hospitals, etc will not lose power outside of a forced power outage.

Dan Scott said:

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On powertochoose, the cheapest rate is 13.6 cents and that's 5 year agreement. Damn last year it was around 8 cents for 3 months. Cheapest 3 month is 20 cents. That's California prices

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So we get to blame Biden for the price of gas? Is that how this works?

72 is near 78

The entire Energy-capacity shortage situation is brought to you by Fed policy. It's the big picture cost of going green.

The long short of our current shortage is due to enhanced emissions rules for fossil-fueled plants and heavily subsidized wind/solar(lesser extent) operating profitably at negative dollars. There simply is no money to be made to build new reliable generators under the current setup which is strictly market-driven even though it's an uneven playing field. The politics of it all (changing admins) add even more uncertainty to the huge investment and risk for new builds or even modernization of existing power plants. Lots of time/money/planning/permitting involved.

In the short term we are having an early "summer " and typically it's the safe time to do maintenance. When the machines are torn apart and in hundreds of pieces you can't just put them back together. Last week there was approx 15,000 mw on outage.

For Texas/Ercot in addition to LGB's inflation (Nat gas prices through the roof) we also have people moving here like it's going out of style.

Hold on to your butts.

texagbeliever said:

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Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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ERCOT/Petro companies failed to ensure that their pipelines were on the "do not cut power, no not ever" list

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My understanding is that it was the NG suppiers' job to inform the power plants of that; certainly not ERCOT's.

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That's not how it works. ERCOT manages Real Time Operations (they are both the ISO & RTO). When ERCOT goes into controlled outages, areas that have been marked as critical infrastructure such as the capital building, jails, hospitals, etc will not lose power outside of a forced power outage.

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It's sort both ERCOT's and the petro company's fault. The petro companies need to tell ERCOT their load is critical and shouldn't be shed, but at the same time ERCOT needs a better protocol in place for checking things to ensure all the gas supplies stay online.

Ercot forecast shows enough supply to offset demand. This morning there was more projected demand than supply.

Bubblez said:

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Greg Abbott and the rest of his conservative government rather see hundreds of Texans dead so his buddies in the O&G industry can rake in billions. He is a clear and present danger to the lives of Texans. Absolute disgrace.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/ercot-asks-texans-to-conserve-power-until-8-p-m-through-the-weekend/2967867/

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Drama queen

We're 75 downstairs and 78 upstairs during the day, and as long as the humidity is low inside, both feel great. When the humidity creeps up, I bump them down.

Night is 73 downstairs and 76 upstairs.

Gee.,,fat people need their house lower than 78? Color me surprised

Right now wind output in ERCOT is an abysmally low 4 GW out of something like 35 GW maximum. It's not there when actually needed during peak demand. Batteries are not a good solution for this as they are terrible for the environment to build and dispose of. Solar? It's there during peak demand IF there are no clouds, but I don't want my power availability to be decided by the weather.

XXXVII said:

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Right now wind output in ERCOT is an abysmally low 4 GW out of something like 35 GW maximum. It's not there when actually needed during peak demand. Batteries are not a good solution for this as they are terrible for the environment to build and dispose of. Solar? It's there during peak demand IF there are no clouds, but I don't want my power availability to be decided by the weather.

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Natural gas is the best solution. Cheap. Burns clean. Infrastructure in place.

techno-ag said:

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XXXVII said:

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Right now wind output in ERCOT is an abysmally low 4 GW out of something like 35 GW maximum. It's not there when actually needed during peak demand. Batteries are not a good solution for this as they are terrible for the environment to build and dispose of. Solar? It's there during peak demand IF there are no clouds, but I don't want my power availability to be decided by the weather.

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Natural gas is the best solution. Cheap. Burns clean. Infrastructure in place.

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And nuke.

Marcus Brutus said:

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techno-ag said:

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XXXVII said:

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Right now wind output in ERCOT is an abysmally low 4 GW out of something like 35 GW maximum. It's not there when actually needed during peak demand. Batteries are not a good solution for this as they are terrible for the environment to build and dispose of. Solar? It's there during peak demand IF there are no clouds, but I don't want my power availability to be decided by the weather.

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Natural gas is the best solution. Cheap. Burns clean. Infrastructure in place.

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And nuke.

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Nukes are good in that they're zero carbon but man are they expensive to start up. Some of those mini nuke ideas and other alternatives might be worth investigating if we could ever past the red tape.

Jack Squat 83 said:

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The entire Energy-capacity shortage situation is brought to you by Fed policy. It's the big picture cost of going green.

The long short of our current shortage is due to enhanced emissions rules for fossil-fueled plants and heavily subsidized wind/solar(lesser extent) operating profitably at negative dollars. There simply is no money to be made to build new reliable generators under the current setup which is strictly market-driven even though it's an uneven playing field. The politics of it all (changing admins) add even more uncertainty to the huge investment and risk for new builds or even modernization of existing power plants. Lots of time/money/planning/permitting involved.

In the short term we are having an early "summer " and typically it's the safe time to do maintenance. When the machines are torn apart and in hundreds of pieces you can't just put them back together. Last week there was approx 15,000 mw on outage.

For Texas/Ercot in addition to LGB's inflation (Nat gas prices through the roof) we also have people moving here like it's going out of style.

Hold on to your butts.

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You hit the nail on the head!

ERCOT has somewhat shot itself in the foot on messaging. We had a weird rolling outage in April 2006 when I was at ERCOT much like this year where it was hot as hell in Dallas and Houston when a lot of resources were off line for maintenance. There were rumblings then, about messaging for the public. Enter Feb 2011(more rolling outages and issues with cold load pickup), poop hit the fan quick and ERCOT still was not doing conservation messaging all that well. After Feb 2011, some folks lost their jobs and it was decided to over message on conservation. Enter Feb 2022 and it was Armageddon.

ERCOT pulls the trigger with much haste now when they even think that there is a 1% chance of a generation shortage. This with the PTSD caused by Feb 2020 causes the public to freak the F out when in 2010 or so you never would have heard of an issue in the news. Its a damned if you do or damned if you don't on the messaging.

At no point this weekend were we about to have outages. The people on here calling people stupid while they themselves are ignorant as can be is quite remarkable.

Bubblez said:

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Greg Abbott and the rest of his conservative government rather see hundreds of Texans dead so his buddies in the O&G industry can rake in billions. He is a clear and present danger to the lives of Texans. Absolute disgrace.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/ercot-asks-texans-to-conserve-power-until-8-p-m-through-the-weekend/2967867/

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So you die of heat stroke at 78? Sound kind of soft there buddy.

Good luck on your vote for the pendejo. Love how every liberals new boogie man is O&G. Besides your logic is flawed, wouldnt turning down the temp benefit O&G's bottom line?

texagbeliever said:

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Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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ERCOT/Petro companies failed to ensure that their pipelines were on the "do not cut power, no not ever" list

---

My understanding is that it was the NG suppiers' job to inform the power plants of that; certainly not ERCOT's.

---

That's not how it works. ERCOT manages Real Time Operations (they are both the ISO & RTO). When ERCOT goes into controlled outages, areas that have been marked as critical infrastructure such as the capital building, jails, hospitals, etc will not lose power outside of a forced power outage.

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None of that is consistent with my understanding. It is not ERCOT's job to identify critical infrastructure to power providers nor ERCOT's job to tell power providers who to shut off and not shut off.

But I won't argue the point any further.

Ag83 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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ERCOT/Petro companies failed to ensure that their pipelines were on the "do not cut power, no not ever" list

---

My understanding is that it was the NG suppiers' job to inform the power plants of that; certainly not ERCOT's.

---

That's not how it works. ERCOT manages Real Time Operations (they are both the ISO & RTO). When ERCOT goes into controlled outages, areas that have been marked as critical infrastructure such as the capital building, jails, hospitals, etc will not lose power outside of a forced power outage.

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None of that is consistent with my understanding. It is not ERCOT's job to identify critical infrastructure to power providers nor ERCOT's job to tell power providers who to shut off and not shut off.

But I won't argue the point any further.

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I think you maybe meant to say retail provider instead of power generator in the first post which is very different. It is still first the job of the transmission company to properly register their load with ERCOT as critical. A retail provider could make that recommendation but it isn't their job and they aren't the ones who fill out that paperwork generally.

To be clear NRG/VISTRA/etc have no say on who has their power cut. Which isn't clear when reading your post.

By "power provider" I meant the company providing the power to an area (eg, in my case, TNMP). When ERCOT tells them to remove X amount of load from the grid, TNMP, not ERCOT, decides how that load gets shed and who loses power. If there is a hospital in that area that is critical to maintain power, it is the hospital's job to inform TNMP of that, not ERCOT's.

This is all based on my understanding from watching hearings last year after the storm. It may have changed with subsequent legislation, I don't know.

And I did make a mistake by saying power plants originally - sorry about that

Ag83 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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ERCOT/Petro companies failed to ensure that their pipelines were on the "do not cut power, no not ever" list

---

My understanding is that it was the NG suppiers' job to inform the power plants of that; certainly not ERCOT's.

---

That's not how it works. ERCOT manages Real Time Operations (they are both the ISO & RTO). When ERCOT goes into controlled outages, areas that have been marked as critical infrastructure such as the capital building, jails, hospitals, etc will not lose power outside of a forced power outage.

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None of that is consistent with my understanding. It is not ERCOT's job to identify critical infrastructure to power providers nor ERCOT's job to tell power providers who to shut off and not shut off.

But I won't argue the point any further.

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This is correct, The TDSP decides who gets curtailed not ERCOT. ERCOT asks for blocks of demand to be taken off the grid and the TDSP responds based upon their LRS (Load Ration Share). The TDSP decides who gets rolled and for how long. ERCOT just asks for the load and the TDSP is bound to respond.

Bubblez said:

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Wholesale electricity prices typically average around $30 per megawatt hour.

They’re now at more than $5,000 per megawatt hour.

When you get your electricity bill next month, blame Greg Abbott who still hasn’t fixed the grid.

— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) May 13, 2022

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I'm under contract...soooo I don't have to worry about this for at least another 21 months.

Also, if your dumbass president would open things up, we wouldn't be worried about an energy crisis.

This is 100% created and controlled by the dems.

I say we deport illegals and kick California's out. Then we'd have enough power.

They should make their own countries and states better, instead of making ours worse.

Yeah if you meant TDSPs as power providers you would he right. Generally though those are called utilities or TDSPs and not power providers.

texagbeliever said:

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Yeah if you meant TDSPs as power providers you would he right. Generally though those are called utilities or TDSPs and not power providers.

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Fair point - I couldn't remember the exact name for them.

crowman2010 said:

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Bubblez said:

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Wholesale electricity prices typically average around $30 per megawatt hour.

They’re now at more than $5,000 per megawatt hour.

When you get your electricity bill next month, blame Greg Abbott who still hasn’t fixed the grid.

— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) May 13, 2022

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I'm under contract...soooo I don't have to worry about this for at least another 21 months.

Also, if your dumbass president would open things up, we wouldn't be worried about an energy crisis.

This is 100% created and controlled by the dems.

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This is why I ****ing hate politicians. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Wholesale-power-prices-hit-5K-per-megawatt-hour-17160821.php

Literally is a known issue in harris county, which isnt state managed. Context would be nice once in a while.

Maybe he should call out the local liberal politucs of Harris County.

Things are likely going to get worse before they get better. Bought a generator today to keep the lights on during the next 'abnormal' heat wave or freeze, storm, hurricane, etc.

Folks, at some point we have to return to some level of sanity and logic. We must build gas or nuclear generation to sustain our growth. I would love for there to be some magic bullet out there that solves all the problems, but it currently does not exist. (We are currently dealing with unicorn farts)

I have worked with and spoken at length with high ranking folks from TESLA about battery technology, which would solve some of the problems with solar and wind. They are thinking we are 20-30 years out from a viable solution. The technology does just not exist at this time or anytime in the near future.

In the meantime if you like cheap, reliable, energy the only means is conventional resources. They have to be the bridge to new tech. It sucks for everyone who wants a "green" solution, but that is the reality. You must face it and accept it.

You also have to realize that your dreams of everyone driving an EV is only going to make the problem worse. Once again, accept it and deal with it. The alternative is a lack of reliability and incredible price increases. There is nothing that your utility or ERCOT can do about it. Them is the facts.

JB!98 said:

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Folks, at some point we have to return to some level of sanity and logic. We must build gas or nuclear generation to sustain our growth. I would love for there to be some magic bullet out there that solves all the problems, but it currently does not exist. (We are currently dealing with unicorn farts)

I have worked with and spoken at length with high ranking folks from TESLA about battery technology, which would solve some of the problems with solar and wind. They are thinking we are 20-30 years out from a viable solution. The technology does just not exist at this time or anytime in the near future.

In the meantime if you like cheap, reliable, energy the only means is conventional resources. They have to be the bridge to new tech. It sucks for everyone who wants a "green" solution, but that is the reality. You must face it and accept it.

You also have to realize that your dreams of everyone driving an EV is only going to make the problem worse. Once again, accept it and deal with it. The alternative is a lack of reliability and incredible price increases. There is nothing that your utility or ERCOT can do about it. Them is the facts.

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You are correct sir, but:
I don't believe the current model will enable this to happen. Even with the occasional $5K spikes there just isn't enough money to be made for new reliable generation vs subsidized renewables, especially with all the uncertainty. Perhaps the only way we'll get there is to somewhat move to a capacity market where payments are guaranteed for reliable/controllable generation. Of course we'll all pay more big time.

Someday the unicorns will dance across the rainbows but it will be a while.

When Texas prices hit $4500 per MWH that’s the equivalent of $450 to charge your Tesla.

Remember: This is 100% a policy failure. It’s easy to build a reliable, resilient grid using fossil fuels and nuclear. pic.twitter.com/0Mc5BX6CTk

— Alex Epstein (@AlexEpstein) May 14, 2022

Myth: The TX winter blackouts were a failure of fossil fuels, especially natural gas.

Truth: Fossil fuels perform great in far worse winter weather than TX had in 2021. TX blackouts were caused by *defunding fossil fuel resiliency* to pay for unreliable solar/wind.

— Alex Epstein (@AlexEpstein) May 4, 2022

Jack Squat 83 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Folks, at some point we have to return to some level of sanity and logic. We must build gas or nuclear generation to sustain our growth. I would love for there to be some magic bullet out there that solves all the problems, but it currently does not exist. (We are currently dealing with unicorn farts)

I have worked with and spoken at length with high ranking folks from TESLA about battery technology, which would solve some of the problems with solar and wind. They are thinking we are 20-30 years out from a viable solution. The technology does just not exist at this time or anytime in the near future.

In the meantime if you like cheap, reliable, energy the only means is conventional resources. They have to be the bridge to new tech. It sucks for everyone who wants a "green" solution, but that is the reality. You must face it and accept it.

You also have to realize that your dreams of everyone driving an EV is only going to make the problem worse. Once again, accept it and deal with it. The alternative is a lack of reliability and incredible price increases. There is nothing that your utility or ERCOT can do about it. Them is the facts.

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You are correct sir, but:
I don't believe the current model will enable this to happen. Even with the occasional $5K spikes there just isn't enough money to be made for new reliable generation vs subsidized renewables, especially with all the uncertainty. Perhaps the only way we'll get there is to somewhat move to a capacity market where payments are guaranteed for reliable/controllable generation. Of course we'll all pay more big time.

Someday the unicorns will dance across the rainbows but it will be a while.

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You are also correct. When you introduce government and subsidies into the equation the math does not work either. It is really, really, complicated, beyond my complete understanding after 23 years of doing this stuff.

The uplift to the ERCOT market would be really high if we went to a guaranteed capacity market and the risks would be high also. Like I said there is no magic bullet. We are too far down the road to go back the way the market was in 1980.