***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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7:20p, 7/15/26
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Windy City Ag • 8:15p, 7/15/26
Windy City Ag said:
Man, this is one brutal conflict.

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/cia-says-ai-drones-russian-170935874.html

Quote:

CIA Says AI Drones Give Russian Troops Only 30 Minutes to Live

Sonya Dymova
Wed, July 15, 2026 at 12:09 PM CDT 1 min read


(Bloomberg) -- Russian soldiers only live an average of 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield because of Ukraine's artificial-intelligence attack drones, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday.

"Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine: the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes," the Central Intelligence Agency chief said at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit on Wednesday.

"That's because AI-powered drones have have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines," he added.

US officials have suggested Russia is losing around 7,000 soldiers per week. And Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said more than 80% of "enemy targets" were being destroyed by drones.


To think the nine year Soviet Afghan war was a disaster because they lost 15,000 dead across nearly a decade. That happens in a few weeks now.


Said this before, but after Afghanistan, the Soviets launched a massive media and propaganda campaign to desensitize their population to war losses. It's where the "Code 200/300" gained popularity. Seems to have worked.
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PJYoung
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6:31a, 7/16/26
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PJYoung
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1:29p, 7/16/26
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Rossticus
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5:52p, 7/16/26
Getting interesting…






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Rossticus
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5:52p, 7/16/26
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Rossticus
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5:53p, 7/16/26
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javajaws
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5:58p, 7/16/26
Z doing his best to F this up! Will be interesting to see how things change over the next few months if they don't fix this.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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Rossticus
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6:01p, 7/16/26


" Syrskyi and Fedorov had different views on how the war should be conducted;
Fedorov made procurements that had not been approved by the General Staff because he considered some items unnecessary, others less important, and certain things more important.

Zelensky said: "Ideally, both Fedorov and Syrskyi should be dismissed, but for now that is impossible."

All of this is true. I had heard it before.

Fedorov refused to buy many of the things the General Staff wanted, but he purchased what the brigades were actually asking for pickup trucks, drones, and so on. Syrskyi did not like this, nor did the companies from which such equipment had previously been purchased at his request.

Fedorov wanted to fight more through technology, while Syrskyi wanted to fight with manpower. They constantly argued during meetings.

One of them clearly had to go. And Zelensky made his choice: Fedorov would be the one to leave.

The president chose the past over the future.

Russia is already celebrating. For the past six months, they have fiercely hated only two Ukrainians Fedorov and Magyar. Now only one remains...

A HUGE MISTAKE BY THE PRESIDENT.

With this decision, he has ended his political career after the next election.

I do not believe this is an outright catastrophe for the country, as some are already claiming, because Fedorov was not the only person making all the decisions. However, the number of problems will probably increase due to less effective management and greater corruption within the government."
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PJYoung
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6:27p, 7/16/26
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txags92
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In reply to PJYoung • 7:42p, 7/16/26
PJYoung said:

Does the SoH blockade against Iran hinder the ability of India to produce enough gas to have some to sell to Russia?
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74OA
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9:49a, 7/17/26
CIA director discusses Russia's disastrous casualty rate.

"Russian recruits arriving on the front lines in Ukraine survive an estimated 20 to 30 minutes before they are killed or wounded, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe said Wednesday, marking the first time a senior American intelligence official has confirmed how deadly the war has become for Moscow."

DEADLY

"Arguably, the steady pipeline of replaceable manpower made senior Russian commanders complacent, reinforcing a cost-ineffective approach. At this stage of the war, it is not clear if more forces would fix anything for Russia, unless its military changes the method of employment. Absent this additional mass, Moscow's choices for breaking the battlefield stalemate are now limited."

WASTED
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PJYoung
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12:59p, 7/17/26
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txags92
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:25p, 7/17/26
PJYoung said:

The speed with which they are taking out the Russian fleet is frankly quite frightening to think about when we have such a small US flagged merchant fleet to rely on for logistics in projecting our power overseas. I am curious to see how badly damaged the ships are and what it will take to repair them. It kind of looked like maybe they were deliberately targeting the bridge and engine compartments and hopefully there are not dozens of tankers spilling their loads into the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.
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PJYoung
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2:00p, 7/17/26
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PJYoung
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In reply to txags92 • 2:01p, 7/17/26
txags92 said:
PJYoung said:

hopefully there are not dozens of tankers spilling their loads into the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.

LOL if ONE ship was spilling it's load into the ocean do you think Russia would keep that quiet?
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Waffledynamics
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2:41p, 7/17/26
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Rossticus
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In reply to txags92 • 2:42p, 7/17/26
txags92 said:
PJYoung said:

The speed with which they are taking out the Russian fleet is frankly quite frightening to think about when we have such a small US flagged merchant fleet to rely on for logistics in projecting our power overseas. I am curious to see how badly damaged the ships are and what it will take to repair them. It kind of looked like maybe they were deliberately targeting the bridge and engine compartments and hopefully there are not dozens of tankers spilling their loads into the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.


I've read various discussions, with photo confirmation, that they are indeed targeting bridge/engine.
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Rossticus
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2:46p, 7/17/26
Complete Charlie Foxtrot…



" When President Zelensky decided to replace Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov with then Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, he likely did not anticipate such strong public backlash. The pushback was significant enough that he lacked enough votes in parliament to confirm Klymenko as new Minister of Defense. Recognizing this, Klymenko probably have made the most rational decision and withdrawn his candidacy.

The problem was that a successor had already been appointed to Klymenko's previous position, effectively leaving him without a ministerial post.

In an apparent attempt to manage the crisis, Zelensky then removed acting SBU chief Yevhenii Khmara, a professional and widely respected veteran who had been serving as an acting replacement for Vasyl Maliuk, and appointed him acting Minister of Defense. Khmara's former position had already been filled by Oleksandr Poklad, whom Zelensky appointed as the new head of the SBU.

Considering that many protesters see it as an attempt by Zelensky to shield himself behind Khmara's personal reputation rather than address the underlying causes of the protests, public discontent has not subsided. As a result, the demonstrations have not subsided, with people continuing to protest today and expected to do so tomorrow as well.

This is also quite shortsighted move towards Khmara. If another decision is made regarding the Minister of Defense, he would be removed from his current role while his previous position has already been filled, much like what happened to Klymenko.

Not to mention that some of the new appointments are quite controversial. For example, the newly appointed Minister of Internal Affairs, Ivan Vyhivskyi, was previously implicated in a corruption scandal reported on by Ukrainian investigative journalists from Bihus. Info

The situation has worsened significantly. Zelensky has doubled down on his decision, while many prominent activists, bloggers and journalists appear even more infuriated and show no signs of backing down, which means that there is no visible de-escalation at the moment."
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Rossticus
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2:48p, 7/17/26
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txags92
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:49p, 7/17/26
Rossticus said:
Complete Charlie Foxtrot…



" When President Zelensky decided to replace Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov with then Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, he likely did not anticipate such strong public backlash. The pushback was significant enough that he lacked enough votes in parliament to confirm Klymenko as new Minister of Defense. Recognizing this, Klymenko probably have made the most rational decision and withdrawn his candidacy.

The problem was that a successor had already been appointed to Klymenko's previous position, effectively leaving him without a ministerial post.

In an apparent attempt to manage the crisis, Zelensky then removed acting SBU chief Yevhenii Khmara, a professional and widely respected veteran who had been serving as an acting replacement for Vasyl Maliuk, and appointed him acting Minister of Defense. Khmara's former position had already been filled by Oleksandr Poklad, whom Zelensky appointed as the new head of the SBU.

Considering that many protesters see it as an attempt by Zelensky to shield himself behind Khmara's personal reputation rather than address the underlying causes of the protests, public discontent has not subsided. As a result, the demonstrations have not subsided, with people continuing to protest today and expected to do so tomorrow as well.

This is also quite shortsighted move towards Khmara. If another decision is made regarding the Minister of Defense, he would be removed from his current role while his previous position has already been filled, much like what happened to Klymenko.

Not to mention that some of the new appointments are quite controversial. For example, the newly appointed Minister of Internal Affairs, Ivan Vyhivskyi, was previously implicated in a corruption scandal reported on by Ukrainian investigative journalists from Bihus. Info

The situation has worsened significantly. Zelensky has doubled down on his decision, while many prominent activists, bloggers and journalists appear even more infuriated and show no signs of backing down, which means that there is no visible de-escalation at the moment."

Big time own goal by Z. Should have just rescinded the decision. Not sure how he recovers the loss of brain power that was driving their technological advances at light speed.
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Rossticus
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2:50p, 7/17/26
"About Syrskyi:
- strikes on bridges in northern Crimea have stopped because the unit commander was transferred - he was disliked by Syrskyi

- "hungry ration" of strike assets for the disloyal

- exposing the flanks of disfavored units, creating favorable conditions for Russian assaults"



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Rossticus
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3:01p, 7/17/26


"There are more people today even more than yesterday.

Over these two days not a single clear communication from Zelenskyy regarding the situation with Fedorov.

People are chanting: "Get rid of Syrskyi!"."

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74OA
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3:35p, 7/17/26
Here's a interesting compendium of Ukrainian reactions, pro and con, to the Fedorov dismissal.

In particular, scroll down to read the Editor's Notes at the bottom.

TURNOVER
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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 6:11p, 7/17/26
Editor's note is spot on. However, in order to encourage young Ukrainian males to fight for their country instead of dodge service they need to feel that their government and its ministers are aspiring to a new future that leaves post-Soviet corruption, cronyist institutions, and antiquated military norms behind them. They can't prevail by continuing to grind the current guard into the dirt year after year w/o fresh patriotic replacements. Russia has shown that you can't win by simply conscripting those who feel they have nothing to fight for en masse.
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AlaskanAg99
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6:24p, 7/17/26
I know its not disclosed, but what are Ukraines losses currently. It a fraction of RUs losses. But since Putin seems more hell bent on attacking civilian apartments, kind of curious.
aTm '99
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 11:37p, 7/17/26
Removed for lack of validation.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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TRM
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7:32a, 7/18/26
Protests possibly getting to Zelenskyy
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Rossticus
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In reply to TRM • 8:51a, 7/18/26
He's toast.



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Rossticus
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8:53a, 7/18/26


"Zelenskyy Acknowledges Fedorov's Effectiveness and Announces His Return to a Strategic National Security Role

The political drama surrounding the government's reshuffle has taken a completely new turn, significantly changing the political landscape. Following widespread public debate, former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov's press conference, and public appeals from volunteers and the business community, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an important statement. The president publicly praised Fedorov's performance as head of the Ministry of Defense, acknowledging that the technological leap made by Ukraine's Armed Forces over the past six months has been exemplary, and announced the reformer's return to the government in a fundamentally new and unexpected role.

The Office of the President confirmed that the country's leadership reached a consensus on Fedorov's future role after he publicly declined a standard advisory position, insisting instead on receiving real authority to continue military reforms.

During a working meeting with the newly formed Cabinet of Ministers led by Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi, President Zelenskyy specifically addressed the importance of preserving the reform team's potential. He stressed that disagreements over the military and conflicts between government institutions should not overshadow achievements that have already produced tangible results on the battlefieldparticularly the large-scale drone programs and Ukraine's domestic ballistic missile program.

According to sources close to the Presidential Office, Zelenskyy acknowledged that the original plan to remove Fedorov from the government's executive structure because of disagreements with the General Staff had been a tactical mistake that created unnecessary public tension.

> "Mykhailo Fedorov has proven that he can break through bureaucratic barriers and create asymmetric advantages against the enemy. His dismissal as minister during the government's restructuring was a procedural step, but he remains an integral part of our team. The state highly values his contribution, and we have prepared a role where his full potential can be realized without the limitations of a traditional ministerial office," Zelenskyy said, effectively putting an end to behind-the-scenes speculation and apologizing for the wave of destructive rumors in the media.

A Special NSDC Mandate: His New Role

Because the parliamentary approval process for the new Cabinet involved a complex series of personnel changesincluding the appointment of Acting Defense Minister Yevhen Khmaraan alternative and much more flexible leadership position was created for Fedorov.

According to preliminary information from presidential advisers, Mykhailo Fedorov will receive a direct appointment to Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) as Chairman of the Defense MilTech and Strategic Planning Coordination Council. Reporting directly to the President, he would receive an expanded mandate that includes:

Coordinating all defense technology projects, including the Brave1 platform, long-range unmanned systems, and the missile program, with direct oversight that bypasses mid-level approvals within the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.

Auditing military procurement by creating a transparent digital system for overseeing defense logistics and reducing corruption risks.

Maintaining direct cooperation with Western partners as the chief negotiator responsible for attracting foreign investment into Ukraine's high-tech defense industry.

Reaction in Parliament and Society: The Crisis Appears Resolved

News that President Zelenskyy and Mykhailo Fedorov had reached an agreementand that the reformer would return with broader powerswas met with noticeable relief among political circles and volunteer organizations."
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Rossticus
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8:58a, 7/18/26


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2wealfth Man
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:23a, 7/18/26
What is the significance of Wildberries?
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Rossticus
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 9:29a, 7/18/26
2wealfth Man said:
What is the significance of Wildberries?


Russian Amazon. Ukraine has contended that it was being used as a means to obtain and distribute sanctioned electronic components, most notably those used in military drone construction.
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docb
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 9:31a, 7/18/26
2wealfth Man said:
What is the significance of Wildberries?

I guess a lot of Russians are going to have their packages delayed? Looks like they were storing something else in there beyond the usual merchandise? Or those cheap clothes are highly flammable. Impressive whatever it is and sends a message.
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Rossticus
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9:37a, 7/18/26

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