***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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In reply to 74OA • 11:08a, 7/14/26
74OA said:
USA*** said:
WWII tactics, but against modern weapons and effective logistics.

Agree, but even more resembling WWI tactics.

I mean what makes you say that besides the balloons dropping bombs and trenches and mass casualties taking meters of ground a day?
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74OA
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In reply to USAFAg • 11:42a, 7/14/26
USA*** said:
74OA said:
USA*** said:
WWII tactics, but against modern weapons and effective logistics.

Agree, but even more resembling WWI tactics.


Especially given the relative ineffectiveness of the traditional armored spearhead and reversion to trenches, fixed fortifications and infantry " over the top" into the kill zone.

.......and particularly under the stare of now ubiquitous overhead observation (e.g. satellites, aircraft, drones, etc.) which makes force distribution/assembly/movement in operationally meaningful mass extremely difficult to conceal from the defense.

But I don't believe this makes combined arms maneuver warfare obsolete across the board. In Ukraine, the impact of all of those elements is exacerbated by both side's inability to effectively apply airpower to help create the conditions for a breakthrough. Ukraine's use of drones (i.e. de facto cruise missiles) as a cheap substitute for manned aircraft to conduct local CAS and, more recently, to execute the first stages of a classic interdiction campaign only goes to reinforce the continuing importance of airpower on the modern battlefield. The latter campaign may yet upset the balance of forces enough to break the stalemate in the trenches.

STRATEGIC ATTACK
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USAFAg
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In reply to 74OA • 11:53a, 7/14/26
First to effectively adapt, wins. No modern war was won by airpower alone, but no modern war was won without it.
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MaxPower
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In reply to USAFAg • 12:02p, 7/14/26
USA*** said:
First to effectively adapt, wins. No modern war was won by airpower alone, but no modern war was won without it.
Vietnam arguably? Can't think of an invading country winning without it though
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to MaxPower • 12:23p, 7/14/26
MaxPower said:
USA*** said:
First to effectively adapt, wins. No modern war was won by airpower alone, but no modern war was won without it.
Vietnam arguably? Can't think of an invading country winning without it though

Air superiority gives you freedom of ground movement. No boots on ground, no true win. If your goal is stalemate or pushback, you just need airpower. Otherwise, it takes grunts.
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USAFAg
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In reply to MaxPower • 12:29p, 7/14/26
MaxPower said:
USA*** said:
First to effectively adapt, wins. No modern war was won by airpower alone, but no modern war was won without it.
Vietnam arguably? Can't think of an invading country winning without it though


Pehaps, but I'd say we quit, rather than were beaten. Never lost a major engagement, just wouldnt do what it took to finish the job for a lot of reasons.
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Waffledynamics
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12:38p, 7/14/26
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Waffledynamics
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12:46p, 7/14/26
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JFABNRGR
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12:47p, 7/14/26
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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2wealfth Man
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12:50p, 7/14/26
Crazy the FSB has its own ships. Sort of like the Waffen SS
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Rossticus
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4:24p, 7/14/26
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Waffledynamics
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4:25p, 7/14/26
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RikkiTikkaTagem
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:43p, 7/14/26
Waffledynamics said:


Who says the Russians don't put a price on life?
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Rossticus
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In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 6:41p, 7/14/26
Those Russian women really have your back… right up until the point someone flashes a few rubles in front of them.
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Over_ed
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6:51p, 7/14/26
3,000,000 rubles = ~ $40K.

In many countries that is a huge amount.

Of course they are 3rd world countries. So it appears to fit here.
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GAC06
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 7:14p, 7/14/26
2wealfth Man said:
Crazy the FSB has its own ships. Sort of like the Waffen SS


Probably more like coast guard
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JFABNRGR
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6:48a, 7/15/26
I bet their sink rate increased quite violently.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 7:07a, 7/15/26
JFABNRGR said:


"I can fix that. My dad is a TV repairman and has an awesome set of tools".

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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Waffledynamics
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8:35a, 7/15/26
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SouthTex99
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:46a, 7/15/26
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74OA
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11:10a, 7/15/26
Incredible wartime achievement that would be impossible without hundreds of billions in aid from Europe.

"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine now produces about 10 million drones a year, up from a 1 million target set in 2023.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine is developing its own ballistic missile capability for the first time and wants to help build a unified European anti-ballistic missile system."

PRODUCTION

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Dirt 05
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 12:27p, 7/15/26
Easier said than done, but drone probably should have approached from opposite (left) side of tail rotor - doubt the warhead detonated passing through the main rotor blades.
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Waffledynamics
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1:06p, 7/15/26
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Windy City Ag
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2:13p, 7/15/26
Man, this is one brutal conflict.

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/cia-says-ai-drones-russian-170935874.html

Quote:

CIA Says AI Drones Give Russian Troops Only 30 Minutes to Live

Sonya Dymova
Wed, July 15, 2026 at 12:09 PM CDT 1 min read


(Bloomberg) -- Russian soldiers only live an average of 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield because of Ukraine's artificial-intelligence attack drones, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday.

"Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine: the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes," the Central Intelligence Agency chief said at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit on Wednesday.

"That's because AI-powered drones have have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines," he added.

US officials have suggested Russia is losing around 7,000 soldiers per week. And Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said more than 80% of "enemy targets" were being destroyed by drones.


To think the nine year Soviet Afghan war was a disaster because they lost 15,000 dead across nearly a decade. That happens in a few weeks now.
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Waffledynamics
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4:09p, 7/15/26
Why is Fedorov being dismissed?

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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 5:08p, 7/15/26
Waffledynamics said:
Why is Fedorov being dismissed?



Because he pushed disruption and threatens to upset the status quo that the old dogs are comfortable with. I posted this before.



"Among Zelensky's main shortcomings as president are his endless favoritism and his carelessness in personnel policy.

Ever since 2019, there has always been someone this guy, someone at his shoulder, standing behind Zelensky and quietly whispering things into his ear. First it was the notorious lawyer Andriy Bohdan, then, until recently, the untouchable gray cardinal Andriy Yermak, then someone else.

The current situation with the reported threat of dismissing the popular young defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov reminds me of early 2020, when Zelensky suddenly fired his first defense minister, Andriy Zahorodniuk.

It seemed that, after a succession of post-Soviet parade generals, the new president had appointed the country's first genuine civilian defense minister in line with the Western principle of civilian control over the military, a man from senior business management.

Many long-overdue reforms got underway, there was a clear plan, and anti-corruption watchdogs were quite pleased.

But nope -- Less than six months later, Zelensky fired Zahorodniuk before allowing him to finish almost anything he had started.

Because he had "failed to prove himself." At the time, however, the circles around the Defense Ministry, the Presidential Office, and the press persistently said that the sudden decision had been pushed by none other than Andriy Yermak, who had become head of the Presidential Office just a couple of weeks earlier and immediately began putting his own people in place and getting rid of those he disliked.

After his dismissal, Zahorodniuk insisted in conversations that he had never had any conflict with Yermak, but the press of those years persistently reported that Yermak had convinced Zelensky to throw out the defense minister because he objected to the then-time drama of pulling back Ukrainian troops from the frontline with Russian-controlled militant formations in Donbas.

The business manager in a suit was replaced by yet another post-Soviet general from the military bureaucracy, Andriy Taran -- who, during his two years in office became memorable mainly for being unable to string two words together and for constantly failing to complete the state defense procurement program.

That is how we ended up with the endless, barely comprehensible carousel of reshuffles, dismissals, and appointments, which people here in Ukraine sometimes refer to as "rearranging the beds in a brothel."

And now it is starting again.

Fedorov, with enormous progress in Ukraine's digital transformation behind him, has served as defense minister for only about six months.

He managed to cut Russians off from Starlink, drone production is booming, digitalization is accelerating, processes are being optimized, AI is being introduced on a massive scale, and there is now a strategy for technological superiority over Russia.

And that's it -- Fedorov has already fallen out of favor because the young IT guy did not get along with General Syrskyi and his methods of working.

And, according to rumors, Fedorov and his reforms have become a thorn in the side of those who have gotten too used to making very good money from military production.

Now Ihor Klymenko, the interior minister and former chief of the National Police, is reportedly being lined up to replace Fedorov. He is remembered mainly for his video in which he boasted about how National Guard recruits are drilled obsessively to make their beds with the sheets aligned perfectly to a string.

Every time our Defense Ministry starts climbing even half a head above the stagnant swamp, Zelensky's favorites always pop up and whisper in his ear -- urging him to appoint yet another mediocrity who would be comfortable for everyone, change nothing, and get in nobody's way.

That is how we live and fight -- two steps forward, one and a half steps back."
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Rossticus
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5:10p, 7/15/26


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Rossticus
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5:13p, 7/15/26


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Rossticus
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5:14p, 7/15/26
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Rossticus
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5:15p, 7/15/26
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Rossticus
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5:17p, 7/15/26
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Rossticus
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5:19p, 7/15/26
All the innovators on his team getting the boot as well. Z lost me with this one.

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Rossticus
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5:23p, 7/15/26

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Rossticus
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5:33p, 7/15/26


"Friends, it's no longer possible to tolerate what's happening with our government. The Minister of Defense is being removed from office during effective (finally!) reforms, replaced by a person under whom any reforms can be forgotten.

We will never defeat Russia as long as the same total mothballing and corruption reign in our army and our ministries.

I call on all caring people to come out tomorrow at 9:01 a.m. to Franko Square and show the president that we are against constant reshuffles in the government and replacing effective ministers with convenient opportunists.

Bring posters and remember that this is a peaceful protest."
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PJYoung
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In reply to Windy City Ag • 5:46p, 7/15/26
Windy City Ag said:
Man, this is one brutal conflict.

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/cia-says-ai-drones-russian-170935874.html

Quote:

CIA Says AI Drones Give Russian Troops Only 30 Minutes to Live

Sonya Dymova
Wed, July 15, 2026 at 12:09 PM CDT 1 min read


(Bloomberg) -- Russian soldiers only live an average of 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield because of Ukraine's artificial-intelligence attack drones, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday.

"Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine: the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes," the Central Intelligence Agency chief said at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit on Wednesday.

"That's because AI-powered drones have have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines," he added.

US officials have suggested Russia is losing around 7,000 soldiers per week. And Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said more than 80% of "enemy targets" were being destroyed by drones.


To think the nine year Soviet Afghan war was a disaster because they lost 15,000 dead across nearly a decade. That happens in a few weeks now.

That 8 minute CNN report I posted a couple of weeks ago really brought it home. I think the round trip on foot was supposed to take 2 hours and it was like 5 or 6, constantly stopping to hide from drones.

Oh I found it

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