***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JFABNRGR
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Rossticus said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

How long until we get massed formations with muskets?


Probably 6-12 months in advance of having to finally resort to rocks and pointy sticks.
there is always these as well. The question is will they put rocks in them or airborne troops.

Rossticus
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MouthBQ98
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Yep, as Russian mobility decreases, static defenses will become more effective. Minefields and barbed wire coupled with carefully placed and concealed overwatch positions and enough drones and artillery would blunt any infantry or personal vehicle attack quickly. The Russians will of course send in breach vehicles or weapons but that also funnels an attack to a kill zone.
lb3
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txags92 said:

lb sand said:

So it seems Russian tactics have steadily regressed .
Start 2022 trying to use modern combined arms in the beginning. Then they tried massed infantry and armored blitzkreig. Ukes picked off all the armor and cluster bombed the infantry. Then trying to just level their opposition with artillery rockets and missiles.
What we are seeing now is basically a ww 1 static battlefield.
With a mix of Iranian Basij-style human wave attacks thrown in.
Don't forget the civil war era mule trains.
74OA
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The fiercest fighting of the Ukraine war may now be in Russia.

"We are expecting Bakhmut 2.0," said Hades, the Russian commander serving in Akhmat, which is made up in large part from the remnants of Wagner paramilitaries.

Bakhmut is a Ukrainian town whose ruins Wagner captured in 2023 after a nine-month assault at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties. The standoff was emblematic of Ukraine's stand-and-fight strategy even in the face of Russia's superior manpower and firepower.

Another Russian commander, who insisted on anonymity for security reasons, said the cost of a showdown would be staggering. The bloodshed, the casualties, it's "unimaginable," he said."

Scroll down: KURSK
B-1 83
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74OA said:

The fiercest fighting of the Ukraine war may now be in Russia.

"We are expecting Bakhmut 2.0," said Hades, the Russian commander serving in Akhmat, which is made up in large part from the remnants of Wagner paramilitaries.

Bakhmut is a Ukrainian town whose ruins Wagner captured in 2023 after a nine-month assault at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties. The standoff was emblematic of Ukraine's stand-and-fight strategy even in the face of Russia's superior manpower and firepower.

Another Russian commander, who insisted on anonymity for security reasons, said the cost of a showdown would be staggering. The bloodshed, the casualties, it's "unimaginable," he said."

Scroll down: KURSK
"Looks like we're going to need more North Koreans…….."
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
P.U.T.U
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Hasn't NK already had like 30k casualties too?
pagerman @ work
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Quote:

"We are expecting Bakhmut 2.0," said Hades, the Russian commander serving in Akhmat
Not for nothing, but Hades is an amazing name for a military commander (assuming of course that is his actual name).
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
USAFAg
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Just a thought but, nK is probably gonna be hesitant to send a lot more guys to the "Russian Front" beyond what's already there. I don't think they know what to do with the survivors of the group they have already sent given that they have apparently lied their collective butts off to both the troops and the nK populace.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
txags92
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P.U.T.U said:

Hasn't NK already had like 30k casualties too?
NK sees that as a feature, not a bug, given how many mouths to feed they have with limited resources.
PJYoung
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USA*** said:

Just a thought but, nK is probably gonna be hesitant to send a lot more guys to the "Russian Front" beyond what's already there. I don't think they know what to do with the survivors of the group they have already sent given that they have apparently lied their collective butts off to both the troops and the nK populace.
You really don't think they can figure that one out?
USAFAg
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PJYoung said:

USA*** said:

Just a thought but, nK is probably gonna be hesitant to send a lot more guys to the "Russian Front" beyond what's already there. I don't think they know what to do with the survivors of the group they have already sent given that they have apparently lied their collective butts off to both the troops and the nK populace.
You really don't think they can figure that one out?
Awful lot of troops to just line up and shoot w/o someone going WTF, even in nK

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SPF250
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PJYoung said:

USA*** said:

Just a thought but, nK is probably gonna be hesitant to send a lot more guys to the "Russian Front" beyond what's already there. I don't think they know what to do with the survivors of the group they have already sent given that they have apparently lied their collective butts off to both the troops and the nK populace.
You really don't think they can figure that one out?
There's probably still enough buildings still standing that are tall enough, with windows, to "fall" out of. Problem solved.
EastSideAg2002
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txags92 said:

P.U.T.U said:

Hasn't NK already had like 30k casualties too?
NK sees that as a feature, not a bug, given how many mouths to feed they have with limited resources.
I think the figure is like 3k since they have only sent at most 12k or so from what I have read.

Its a bit of a conundrum if the information is right about the troops they sent in. These are supposedly NKs top soldiers, not their riff raff. They are the true believers so it would be quite wasteful for them to eliminate them before sending them back out at least.
chickencoupe16
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EastSideAg2002 said:

txags92 said:

P.U.T.U said:

Hasn't NK already had like 30k casualties too?
NK sees that as a feature, not a bug, given how many mouths to feed they have with limited resources.
I think the figure is like 3k since they have only sent at most 12k or so from what I have read.

Its a bit of a conundrum if the information is right about the troops they sent in. These are supposedly NKs top soldiers, not their riff raff. They are the true believers so it would be quite wasteful for them to eliminate them before sending them back out at least.
At the same time, it seems that even the true believers were not immune to limitless porn. Perhaps Kim hadn't factored that in before sending them.
agent-maroon
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EastSideAg2002 said:

txags92 said:

P.U.T.U said:

Hasn't NK already had like 30k casualties too?
NK sees that as a feature, not a bug, given how many mouths to feed they have with limited resources.
I think the figure is like 3k since they have only sent at most 12k or so from what I have read.

Its a bit of a conundrum if the information is right about the troops they sent in. These are supposedly NKs top soldiers, not their riff raff. They are the true believers so it would be quite wasteful for them to eliminate them before sending them back out at least.

"Top soldiers" means what, exactly? Neither their best nor their worst has any real combat experience. Classroom training in NK wouldn't be worth a whole lot more than indoctrination is my guess.
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EastSideAg2002
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They recieve more training amd equipment than the majority of the soldiers. Majority of NK army is little more than prison labor for dear leader.
AlaskanAg99
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The strategic landscape is shifting rapidly. Zelenskyy needs to hold elections, sue for peace and the next leader needs to fortify the new border. Ukraine does not have the ability to retake what is lost. The only way this would be possible is with the introduction of foreign troops. The US will not provide and the EU is spineless. As Ukraine isn't in NATO (and will not be) article 5 cannot be envoked.

After a truce is settled, Ukraine would then need to barter its resources to improve defenses before Russia inevitably attacks a 3rd time. This could be new defensive treaties with neighbors outside of NATO.

Russia is badly depleted and will take them years to rearm and refit. Then investigations and audits will be required to find out where missing US funds went. That needs to be recovered and returned to the US and the perpetrators shot by Ukraine's Army.

Or the EU can continue to fund thus war while the US backs out. Arms can be bought but no longer gifted. Recall some specialized hardware.
Rossticus
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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.
JFABNRGR
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Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.
Eliminatus
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JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.
It's worse case scenario but if you ask me, it does seem to be a coin flip as of now from what I can tell. I honestly doubt Trump truly gives a damn about the conflict on a moral level which is whatever, but he and his cabinet largely campaigned on a very strong Anti-Ukraine message and that very cabinet is what is going to be in his ears from here on out. And the SecDef has made his position extremely clear months and months ago.

The Lend Lease bill being put together currently along with Zelenskyy essentially playing ball and placating Trump at every level is the other side of that coin.


To not derail into the pure domestic politics of it all, If nothing else, Europe does seem to have been spurred to actual action perhaps. Unfortunate it took this to get them truly moving and united, but maybe this is the 10D chess Trump was looking for. It will just come down to time and whether Trump will advocate for Ukraine to essentially capitulate now. Which would be...disappointing. Count me as one of those who firmly believes that would just be kicking the can down the road.

Russia seems to be at an all time low when it comes to their capability on the battlefield. The whole wounded men being forced to fight is real and not just one or two incidents from what I have seen so far. The situation for them is beyond bleak. NK bought them some time but Russia is struggling to even take back their own land. Even after Putin himself gave the deadline of Oct.1 of scourging the motherland of Uke filth. Last Oct that is....
2wealfth Man
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JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.
seems to be a lot of evil minions of both sides if you ask me
PJYoung
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2wealfth Man said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.
seems to be a lot of evil minions of both sides if you ask me
From Putin's mouth to your ears.

Russia invaded a sovereign nation in hopes of stealing it's natural resources. They raped and pillaged without regard for human life and have been solely responsible for untold suffering.

I don't give a rat's ass about the exact moral standing of the victim nation in this. Russian's empire has always specialized in disinformation and in this day and age of social media they have been successful like never before.

Ukraine hasn't asked for American blood to be spilled, just to continue to give them what was (mostly) our reserve junk sitting in storage and to make good on what we promised them when they gave up their nukes. It's incredible to me how much success Russia has had in shaping the debate over here.
AlaskanAg99
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JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
aezmvp
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They don't have the manpower to do a real offensive. The Ukes will need a long time to recover from this. A lot of outside aid. Lots of structural changes and stringent anti-corruption standards. It's going to be difficult and take a long time. I'm definitely a Uke supporter, but it's enough. They won't make any more positive moves. There isn't enough men and material to fundamentally change the equation so better to get the best deal you can now and get started on rebuilding and entrenching.
USAFAg
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Without trying to sound pushy, y'all, but there is another thread for this type of debate. This is supposed to be an operational/tactical discussion thread.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
AlaskanAg99
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USA*** said:

Without trying to sound pushy, y'all, but there is another thread for this type of debate. This is supposed to be an operational/tactical discussion thread.


And Strategic. It's in the title.

This is what we're discussing. This is what trump is discussing.
docb
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I think the best course of action would be to include Ukraine in the negotiations and for the most part freeze the lines as they stand except for what Putin is willing to swap for the Kursk land. Then there would need to be security guarantees and boots on the ground to enforce it, preferably European boots. Not the win I was hoping for Ukraine but they will still exist. And if Putin won't accept this then it's time for more powerful aid and longer range weapons.


txags92
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AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.
JFABNRGR
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AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?


I do not believe it's necessary to commit US troops even though we have partially failed in our commitment to protect when UKR gave up their nukes.

Options??
Take any handcuffs off UKR, influence EU to do more, promise putin sanction relief for leaving or pulling back to X lines.

Have usaid save face and create color revolution in russia or better just have them assassinate putin.
rgag12
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AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?


There are no options other than to either make peace or slowly give ground. You could give the Ukes all the best technology and remove any other "handcuffs" and they'll still going to have the manpower issue.

Any other answer is not grounded in reality.
AlaskanAg99
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txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.


And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.
txags92
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AlaskanAg99 said:

txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.


And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.
And prove to Taiwan (and China) that we are an unreliable ally with security assurances that only last as long as the attention span of our population. We helped convince Ukraine to give up their nukes in return for security assurances. Whatever else USAID and the CIA and Victoria Nuland-types did to create a corrupt system in Ukraine, we made a commitment to help them avoid exactly this situation if they gave up their nukes, and now we want to walk away and leave them to the wolves. Makes me pretty sick to my stomach to think about it really.
AlaskanAg99
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txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.


And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.
And prove to Taiwan (and China) that we are an unreliable ally with security assurances that only last as long as the attention span of our population. We helped convince Ukraine to give up their nukes in return for security assurances. Whatever else USAID and the CIA and Victoria Nuland-types did to create a corrupt system in Ukraine, we made a commitment to help them avoid exactly this situation if they gave up their nukes, and now we want to walk away and leave them to the wolves. Makes me pretty sick to my stomach to think about it really.


How many US troops are you willing to commit?

This is the only question.
txags92
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AlaskanAg99 said:

txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

txags92 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Rossticus said:

If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.


I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.


Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?
Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.


And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.
And prove to Taiwan (and China) that we are an unreliable ally with security assurances that only last as long as the attention span of our population. We helped convince Ukraine to give up their nukes in return for security assurances. Whatever else USAID and the CIA and Victoria Nuland-types did to create a corrupt system in Ukraine, we made a commitment to help them avoid exactly this situation if they gave up their nukes, and now we want to walk away and leave them to the wolves. Makes me pretty sick to my stomach to think about it really.


How many US troops are you willing to commit?

This is the only question.
None. There are other options, many of which are precluded currently by the restrictions we put on the use of our weapons.
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