I think the real question will be what to do with Putin. I don't see how the world can allow Russia to take some of Ukraine's land and also allow Putin to remain in power. That sends a horrible signal to other tyrants in the world.

Nothing you can do about it. Putin has firmly entrenched himself as "president" for life. He's a full on dictator with exclusive control of the government. And the guy in line to replace him is generally viewed as an even greater revanchist with less self control.

Unconfirmed reports of ICBMs enroute to Ukraine from Russia

https://www.flightradar24.com/SNOOP29/380f7db1
and
https://www.flightradar24.com/HIRAM02/380f8235

Huge explosions heard in Dnipro, Ukraine pic.twitter.com/QhijYzRLrj

— Brian’s Breaking News and Intel (@intelFromBrian) November 21, 2024

Dnipro https://t.co/8Jsvj75glP pic.twitter.com/GFVRhRAFCv

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) November 21, 2024

TChaney said:

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Unconfirmed reports of ICBMs enroute to Ukraine from Russia

https://www.flightradar24.com/SNOOP29/380f7db1
and
https://www.flightradar24.com/HIRAM02/380f8235

Huge explosions heard in Dnipro, Ukraine pic.twitter.com/QhijYzRLrj

— Brian’s Breaking News and Intel (@intelFromBrian) November 21, 2024

Dnipro https://t.co/8Jsvj75glP pic.twitter.com/GFVRhRAFCv

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) November 21, 2024

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I am assuming you just called them ICBMs instead of typing out ballistic missiles? Why use a long range missile to attack Ukraine?

It was an ICBM, per Ukraine.

BREAKING:

Today’s launch by Russia of an intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine is the first time ever an ICBM has been launched at another state in a war. pic.twitter.com/fY9wNoS6aZ

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

BREAKING:

The ICBM fired at Ukraine today was a RS-26 “Rubezh.”

It’s a mobile-ground ballistic missile system derived from the RS-24 “Yars.”

First tested in 2012, it has a range of more than 6000 km and can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). pic.twitter.com/V0HLtC7oIH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

BREAKING:

Another video shows the first ever intercontinental ballistic missile used in a war hitting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

The video shows several reentry vehicles from the missile’s MIRV hitting the city center. pic.twitter.com/NJwbqMfvMe

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

US officials denying, stating this was a ballistic missile salvo but not ICBM.

AtticusMatlock said:

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BREAKING:

Another video shows the first ever intercontinental ballistic missile used in a war hitting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

The video shows several reentry vehicles from the missile’s MIRV hitting the city center. pic.twitter.com/NJwbqMfvMe

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

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Do they know how that's a mirv instead of a bunch of other single warhead missiles?

This administration is doing everything possible to try and hand over to Trump a difficult situation.

Brother Shamus said:

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This administration is doing everything possible to try and hand over to Trump a difficult situation.

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It's been a difficult situation since it started. I guess we'll see what Trump is made of and if he can follow through on his promises.

Putin wasn't going to let there be no response to this. Everything has a counter. Releasing long range strikes against Russia was always, always going to result in Putin responding in some fashion. This is how brinksmanship has been run for damn near 3/4 of a century. This isn't a surprise.

We should both see it for what it is, and what it isn't. This IS an escalation. And a deliberate one without many extra escalations possible. It's like the US using a B-2 when we could have done the same thing with a B-1 or B-52. It's the big stick. The next step would be hitting government buildings in Kyiv or so forth imo.

This is NOT a prelude to nuclear war. That would require a massive, massive escalation from the West. Direct injection of troops or hitting naval assets. A really big strike on something like the Duma. Maybe the Kerch bridge. The Ukes clearly, clearly now have the capability to hit it, and haven't. There has to be a reason for it and I suspect that it is a bright, sharp red line that has been clearly leaked through back channels. And even then a strike would not be targeted on Liga or Berlin or Washington. It'd be near the front lines or at worst Kyiv (and that would be an unimaginable tragedy of course).

We should not play fast and loose, but we should understand what the stakes are. I have been a big proponent of funding and training the Ukes. But they cannot retake the territory. The will need to set up new lines, rearm and retrain as well as make massive reforms to a system that hasn't seen effective government with limited corruption in millennia. But now is the time to wind it down. The Ukes aren't going to break the stalemate without an unacceptable outcome for us. So we should not continue to pour money and weapon systems into a black hole with nothing but downsides for us. From a PURELY pragmatic standpoint we have nothing further to gain. The Russian military has come out of this incredibly weakened, it has exposed deficiencies in both our and their weapon systems, we've seen new drone tactics that were sorely needing real world exposure and seen what other countries and proxies will use against the US Navy in the near future. The United States has nothing else to gain here and a lot to risk/lose. Time to end this and reduce those risks.

Russia is having production problems with conventional ballistic missiles. They can't meet demand and have already gone horse trading for low quality Iranian and North Korean missiles to try to fill the gap.

This launch serves several purposes: threatens the west by extending the nuclear puffery and test the response, tests an ICBM system in real world conditions, uses the conventional ICBM warhead platform to attack actual targets for lack of other means, and tests western air defenses against such a threat.

I wouldn't make too much of it yet. I see it more of an indication of frustration and desperation by Russia to find ways to continue their war effort as they run low on capable weapons and equipment.

Quo Vadis? said:

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Do they know how that's a mirv instead of a bunch of other single warhead missiles?

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MIRV should be in a straight line, and roughly simultaneous in a window that small. It could still be single warhead ICBMs, but would a Russia be willing to waste that on a show of force? One would do.

I agree Ukes cannot physically take back land but between them and global sanctions against russsia can make it so costly that russia elects to leave the ruins and the mines to UKR and the world to clean up.

What was the target in Dnipro? Putin seems to not hesitate to clobber civilian targets and infrastructure, claims "escalation", uses a MIRVed missile (not exactly precision), then whines when Ukraine pops a deep ammo depot or air base. If Ukraine keeps the targets military, Putin, as the aggressor, has little to whine about

I was listening to a podcast the other day and they mentioned Ukraine moved their mobilization age from 27 to 25.

What's the thought process behind this? I get not wanting to sacrifice all the younger people but if it's so important to keep the Russians out, why are they not using everyone 18+? I don't remember ever hearing any other country doing this when they were invaded. It seems like an an invasion gets all hands on deck, anything that works.

I say this as someone who has supported Ukraine through this thing and someone who thinks Russia is/will be a problem, but it really made me start thinking wondering how committed they are to this whole thing if you're not throwing everything, including the kitchen sink at them.

aezmvp said:

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The next step would be hitting government buildings in Kyiv or so forth imo.

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Launching a conventional ICBM warhead from one of these would be a an interesting escalation for Russia.

Question for those in the know: How could you tell when there is a launch if it is conventional or nuclear?

I believe it is Zelensky's hometown. That is probably why they hit it.

Monkeypoxfighter said:

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What was the target in Dnipro? Putin seems to not hesitate to clobber civilian targets and infrastructure, claims "escalation", uses a MIRVed missile (not exactly precision), then whines when Ukraine pops a deep ammo depot or air base. If Ukraine keeps the targets military, Putin, as the aggressor, has little to whine about

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No real target. Just an expensive temper tantrum by Putin.

Possibly I don't know that it's much of an escalation from the Black Sea, maybe fired from the Baltic or Arctic. That kind of thing would definitely raise eyebrows. But That's a good point. I think next escalation would be target selection. They clearly don't want to go after Zelensky but maybe some of their military command and control.

Footage from last night’s Russian Ballistic Missile Attack on the City of Dnipro, shows that the Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry-Vehicle (MIRV) used, equipped to either an Intermediate-Range or Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, contained at least 6… pic.twitter.com/BcH1B2l88t

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 21, 2024

Another view.

aezmvp said:

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Possibly I don't know that it's much of an escalation from the Black Sea, maybe fired from the Baltic or Arctic. That kind of thing would definitely raise eyebrows. But That's a good point. I think next escalation would be target selection. They clearly don't want to go after Zelensky but maybe some of their military command and control.

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They don't have any of them in the Black Sea. They're assigned to Russia's Northern and Pacific fleets.

RangerRick9211 said:

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Footage from last night’s Russian Ballistic Missile Attack on the City of Dnipro, shows that the Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry-Vehicle (MIRV) used, equipped to either an Intermediate-Range or Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, contained at least 6… pic.twitter.com/BcH1B2l88t

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 21, 2024

Another view.

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comment from that post:

" That looks like impacts by 6 "dummy" or test RV warheads with debris from the vehicles. A MIRV "bus" would have 6 RVs. You see 6 strikes. It's not being used as designed, all impact in a tight area…"

Agreed. A MIRV with dispersion that tight would be pointless for nuclear weapons. More proof this was just a display.

I keep asking myself why Putin did not conduct an above ground nuclear test in the Arctic Ocean the day after the Nordstream 2 was attacked. First a tactical nuke and then a 1-5 megaton warhead. If he wanted to show the world he was serious, demonstrating the readiness of his warheads and breaking the 1962 treaty would have been the best way to do it rather than setting a bunch of red lines that have been crossed with near impunity. Surely his inner circle has discussed conducting nuclear tests as a deterrent option, but they have not done it.

I'm sorry been reading the last pages about this advanced missile attack, albeit with a conventional warhead and still I'm confused as to what that actually means?

Expensive saber rattling? Systems test? Russia running out of other launch platforms/missiles?

All of the above? TIA.

How would that have changed anything? We know Russia has nukes.

Expensive saber rattling

100% saber rattling. Cheap drones would be better and more precise then using ICBM's as conventional delivery systems.

Ulysses90 said:

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I keep asking myself why Putin did not conduct an above ground nuclear test in the Arctic Ocean the day after the Nordstream 2 was attacked. First a tactical nuke and then a 1-5 megaton warhead. If he wanted to show the world he was serious, demonstrating the readiness of his warheads and breaking the 1962 treaty would have been the best way to do it rather than setting a bunch of red lines that have been crossed with near impunity. Surely his inner circle has discussed conducting nuclear tests as a deterrent option, but they have not done it.

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Perhaps China said not to?
I get the feeling China pushes back on escalation.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Russia is having production problems with conventional ballistic missiles. They can't meet demand and have already gone horse trading for low quality Iranian and North Korean missiles to try to fill the gap.

This launch serves several purposes: threatens the west by extending the nuclear puffery and test the response, tests an ICBM system in real world conditions, uses the conventional ICBM warhead platform to attack actual targets for lack of other means, and tests western air defenses against such a threat.

I wouldn't make too much of it yet. I see it more of an indication of frustration and desperation by Russia to find ways to continue their war effort as they run low on capable weapons and equipment.

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Don't forget that the israelis just blew up a significant portion of Iran's ballistic missile and drone manufacturing and storage facilities. So their ability to continue to supply Russia is likely to be seriously curtailed.

First ever use of an ICBM is supposed to be a proportional response to US giving permission to Ukraine to use longer range (but not intercontinental range) for strikes deeper inside Russia?