***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,130,173 Views | 48929 Replies | Last: 6 min ago by PJYoung
AgLA06
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Welcome to Skynet!
benchmark
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74OA said:

"Low-cost FPVs as anti-drone weapons may be a game changer. And they may not stop at drones. FPV operators have attempted to chase Russian helicopters, without success, with videos of at least two failed attempts."
Thanks for sharing. Also c/p from same article:
Quote:

"Ukrainian drones neutralizing Russian recon drones would fundamentally change this war in a way that Russia cannot and will not ever be able to recover from," OSINT analyst Andrew Perpetua commented in Twitter/X. "Basically, if Ukraine can scale what happens in this video … Russia is ****ed in a way that is actually incomprehensible."
JFABNRGR
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To add to the drone discussion:

  • For the last 2-3 months Ukes going after individual orc soldiers with FPV drones and in some cases using multiple to finish off one soldier.
  • In the same time period Ukes rarely making any attempt to commandeer orc armor/vehicle assets that were slightly damaged initially or abandoned whole, instead using multiple drones at times to destroy COMPLETELY.
  • On the Uke side drone operation and even fabrication/load out has become autonomous at the lowest level of of operational units AND coordinated amongst units across the front.
  • I think the biggest piece missing on both sides is the detection and interdiction capability on the long range ISR drones. Almost all of the strategic strikes by russia have been conducted with targeting assistance by these.

Drone capabilities that haven't hit the public yet in video, yet quite effective.
  • anti-tank mine laying robots.
  • MK19 mounted on robot.

I am at a place where I think putin is really looking at the cost of advancing and even HOLDING the line. Ukes need to up the deep costly strikes in russia.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
74OA
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JFABNRGR said:

To add to the drone discussion:

  • For the last 2-3 months Ukes going after individual orc soldiers with FPV drones and in some cases using multiple to finish off one soldier.
  • In the same time period Ukes rarely making any attempt to commandeer orc armor/vehicle assets that were slightly damaged initially or abandoned whole, instead using multiple drones at times to destroy COMPLETELY.
  • On the Uke side drone operation and even fabrication/load out has become autonomous at the lowest level of of operational units AND coordinated amongst units across the front.
  • I think the biggest piece missing on both sides is the detection and interdiction capability on the long range ISR drones. Almost all of the strategic strikes by russia have been conducted with targeting assistance by these.

Drone capabilities that haven't hit the public yet in video, yet quite effective.
  • anti-tank mine laying robots.
  • MK19 mounted on robot.

I am at a place where I think putin is really looking at the cost of advancing and even HOLDING the line. Ukes need to up the deep costly strikes in russia.

See "Drone Wars" link on preceding page.
sclaff
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In October of last year it was announced that 160 Slinger anti-drone systems would be sent to Ukraine. I have not seen reports of their arrivals or use yet.

JFABNRGR
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sclaff said:

In October of last year it was announced that 160 Slinger anti-drone systems would be sent to Ukraine. I have not seen reports of their arrivals or use yet.




At a million dollars a unit, no actual capabilities described, esp above 5000' agl, I am confident the Ukes will develop something for a tenth of the cost.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Waffledynamics
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https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19815

Quote:

The map has been updated!

The enemy advanced near Progress , Volodymyrivka , Karlivka , Krasnohorivka , New York , Chasovoy Yar and Makiivka .

Literally on June 9, "the enemy was not in the city ", on June 27 the spokesman " knocked out all the occupiers from the city ", and already today the Katsapas completely occupied the Kanal microdistrict (Novij on the headquarters map).

Unfortunately, mistakes have to be paid for - with people and territory. If we continue to pretend that everything is fine, the situation will be on the verge of disaster. There are units and brigades from which it is worth taking an example, and there are units that become someone's career ladder, where the foot of some general should step.

The main tactical mistakes remain attempts to restore positions when it does not make any sense, and defense at disadvantageous boundaries, and sometimes in surroundings.
74OA
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New $2B aid package.

AID

Supposedly includes more HAWKs.

SAM
JFABNRGR
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When you get to play multiple real world COD battles at the same time. I count 16 video feeds on just one of the larger monitors alone. 3 orc armor vehicles on that assault and likely not a single survivor. FWIW I don't agree with the Ukes showing these operational control centers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1duneij/ua_national_guards_12th_special_purpose_brigade/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
AtticusMatlock
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In the last 24h the Ukrainians struck a Shahed warehouse building in Crimea resulting in big booms. They also apparently struck an air force ammunition location within Russia resulting in bigger booms.
docb
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Hopefully weapons restrictions will soon be lifted and Ukraine can start hitting more distant air bases with US long range weapons.
AtticusMatlock
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The ammunition depot I posted above was either this strike or a repeat report from last week.
74OA
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Here's what's in the latest aid package:

  • Missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
  • Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 81mm mortar rounds;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Small arms ammunition and grenades;
  • Demolitions equipment and munitions;
  • Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
  • Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment; and,
  • Spare parts, maintenance, and other field and ancillary equipment.

Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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News from Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut:

Quote:

As of July 4, according to the situation in the city of Chasiv Yar:

On our part of the front, the defenders of the city destroyed more than 100 units of enemy equipment.

The Kanal microdistrict was completely destroyed by the Russians; defense in an open area is physically impossible.

The operation of active defense of the city continues, the main task of the battalion is to cause maximum damage to the enemy's manpower and equipment.

We are waiting for the resumption of Russian attacks after their short-term lull. In recent weeks, the enemy has suffered significant personnel losses, including the defeat of a battalion of the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Federation, including the battalion commander.

We thank Public Broadcasting, the "Public Studio" project for illuminating the events at the front. 225 OSHB continues to perform the tasks of defending the city.
https://t.me/OSHB_225/4603
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Poland arrived in Kyiv
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/4-july-the-chief-of-the-general-staff-of-the-armed-forces
74OA
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DOJ should make a deterrent example of guys like this.

"According to prosecutors, starting in October 2020, the defendants sought to sell electronics that included threat detection systems as well as flight, navigation and communications controls to two Russian aircraft parts distributors, a Russian aircraft repair firm and a Russian aircraft services company."

ILLEGAL
DCPD158
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74OA said:

DOJ should make a deterrent example of guys like this.

"According to prosecutors, starting in October 2020, the defendants sought to sell electronics that included threat detection systems as well as flight, navigation and communications controls to two Russian aircraft parts distributors, a Russian aircraft repair firm and a Russian aircraft services company."

ILLEGAL

We use to call that treason.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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The Fife
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Still bringing in guys from the far east, I see. In Russia they're as expendable as one gets.
74OA
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Germany has just delivered a third Patriot battery of the four it has pledged. The US will soon send a second battery, Romania is sending a battery, and The Netherlands is "crowd sourcing" another from various sources.

SAM
AlaskanAg99
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Ate these Patriot batteries so amazing that a single addition is note worthy?

I straight up don't know, but I do imagine the control station and batteries have to be moved frequently.
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Ate these Patriot batteries so amazing that a single addition is note worthy?

I straight up don't know, but I do imagine the control station and batteries have to be moved frequently.


From a 2022 article:

" One former senior military official with knowledge of the Patriot system said it will be effective against short-range ballistic missiles and it represents a strong message of U.S. support, but one battery isn't going to change the course of the war.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the Ukraine deal has not yet been made public, noted that one Patriot battery has a long firing range, but can cover only a limited broad area. As an example, Patriots can effectively protect a small military base, but can't fully protect a large city such as Kyiv. They could only provide coverage for a segment of a city.

Patriots are often deployed as a battalion, which includes four batteries. This won't be the case with Ukraine, which officials said would be receiving one battery.

The Patriot has a more powerful radar that is better at discriminating targets than the Soviet-era S-300 system the Ukrainians have been using, but it has limitations, both Karako and Cancian said.

Still the Patriot's ability to target some ballistic missiles and aircraft could potentially protect Kyiv if Russian President Vladimir Putin carried through on his persistent threat to deploy a tactical nuclear device. But that would depend on how the weapon was delivered, Karako said. If it was a gravity bomb delivered by a warplane, the system could target the aircraft; if it was a cruise or short-to-medium-range ballistic missile, it could also possibly intercept the missile, Karako said."

So, it sound like Ukraine is on track to have a full battalion deployed relatively soon, with 3/4 of another battalion being promised at some point. Not going to impact the course of the war by any stretch but seems it will eventually ensure significant protection for Kyiv and/or a couple of significant military installations.
AlaskanAg99
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Good info, and I realize 1 battery by itself won't make a difference because it can't cover everything. But with say, 4 batteries, and you add a 5th, then your coverage expands including overlap. With a single, the enemy just fires where the batter can't cover, with broader coverage it makes sense you can create overlapping fields (assuming they can talk to one another). But I don't know how many Ukraine has, effective coverage per and how much area they have to cover. Thus, does 1 make a difference. Who know, may take 9 for true effective coverage.

The other issue is not every threat is equal to the system being used. Doesn't make sense to use a $1M missile to take down a a $50k drone.

Which is why overlapping systems designated for different threats are needed.
74OA
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Good info, and I realize 1 battery by itself won't make a difference because it can't cover everything. But with say, 4 batteries, and you add a 5th, then your coverage expands including overlap. With a single, the enemy just fires where the batter can't cover, with broader coverage it makes sense you can create overlapping fields (assuming they can talk to one another). But I don't know how many Ukraine has, effective coverage per and how much area they have to cover. Thus, does 1 make a difference. Who know, may take 9 for true effective coverage.

The other issue is not every threat is equal to the system being used. Doesn't make sense to use a $1M missile to take down a a $50k drone.

Which is why overlapping systems designated for different threats are needed.
Ukraine has overlapping air defense with AD cannons like Gepard, to MANPADS like Stinger and EW, to medium-range SAMS like NASAMS and, ultimately, Patriot. It needs more of the latter for ballistic missile defense and for the keep-out range it provides against aircraft lobbing weapons like glide bombs from Russian airspace into Ukraine.

Each Patriot battery has a number of missile firing stations. The Germans are reportedly providing seven or eight with this single system, which allows any single battery to spread out and cover considerable airspace. The single Patriot system the US has provided so far, has been providing coverage against high-end threats for much of the large city of Kyiv, for example.

PATRIOT
AgLA06
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One large system could provide ballistic defense for a decent sized city.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Several Shahed drones are airborne over Ukraine: near Cherkasy, over Sumy region, near Kamianske of Dnipropetrovsk region and over Kirovohrad region towards Kremenchuk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-july-several-shahed-drones-are-airborne-over-ukraine-near
Ag with kids
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74OA said:

Germany has just delivered a third Patriot battery of the four it has pledged. The US will soon send a second battery, Romania is sending a battery, and The Netherlands is "crowd sourcing" another from various sources.

SAM

Is it PAC-2 or PAC-3?

Makes a difference with the ABM mission.
Gradaggie05
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Please educate me…

Are these batteries just the actual launchers, radar, and control modules with one set of missiles? Or are there re-loads included?
Waffledynamics
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Gradaggie05 said:

Please educate me…

Are these batteries just the actual launchers, radar, and control modules with one set of missiles? Or are there re-loads included?
Should be the full set.
AtticusMatlock
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Rumors swirling that the Ukes may have taken out one of the best / most competent Russian generals with a HIMARS. Have not seen confirmation.
JFABNRGR
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AtticusMatlock said:

Rumors swirling that the Ukes may have taken out one of the best / most competent Russian generals with a HIMARS. Have not seen confirmation.


A rare time my tax dollars were effective.

Two strikes on large groups of open troops in last 2 days.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/xZysBGbYAP

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/NuSdm3Hmqo
74OA
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PAC-3 system. The US has been providing most of the missile reloads.
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

AtticusMatlock said:

Rumors swirling that the Ukes may have taken out one of the best / most competent Russian generals with a HIMARS. Have not seen confirmation.


A rare time my tax dollars were effective.

Two strikes on large groups of open troops in last 2 days.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/xZysBGbYAP

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/NuSdm3Hmqo



I hope he was in the middle of a motivational speech when the strike came. Would love to see the aftermath vids / photos.

Why was a general that close to the front?

Thank God they're so stupid.
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