74OA said:

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PAC-3 system. The US has been providing most of the missile reloads.

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Ah ok.

The reason I asked is because this is the pic in the article posted...



That's a PAC-2.

Previously we sent a variety of missiles. Seems likely that will continue

Likely just a file photo.

Gilligan said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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Rumors swirling that the Ukes may have taken out one of the best / most competent Russian generals with a HIMARS. Have not seen confirmation.

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A rare time my tax dollars were effective.

Two strikes on large groups of open troops in last 2 days.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/xZysBGbYAP

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/NuSdm3Hmqo

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I hope he was in the middle of a motivational speech when the strike came. Would love to see the aftermath vids / photos.

Why was a general that close to the front?

Thank God they're so stupid.

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I know at the beginning of the war it was communication issues but in general the Russian philosophy is to have their leaders close to the action! You don't want Ivan to think they know what's best and do their own thing. Very dangerous for the motherland!

PJYoung said:

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Gilligan said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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Rumors swirling that the Ukes may have taken out one of the best / most competent Russian generals with a HIMARS. Have not seen confirmation.

---

A rare time my tax dollars were effective.

Two strikes on large groups of open troops in last 2 days.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/xZysBGbYAP

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/NuSdm3Hmqo

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I hope he was in the middle of a motivational speech when the strike came. Would love to see the aftermath vids / photos.

Why was a general that close to the front?

Thank God they're so stupid.

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I know at the beginning of the war it was communication issues but in general the Russian philosophy is to have their leaders close to the action! You don't want Ivan to think they know what's best and do their own thing. Very dangerous for the motherland!

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Haven't seen anything about another General get'n whacked. I'd think that would be published everywhere if true.

Looks like a uke drone attack found a weapons stash in Russia

https://apple.news/AIA5RVCKQScC3YRbfteSeZg

Ukraine is littered with unexploded Russian ordnance, so Ukraine is training women as EOD specialists. The consequences of Putin's crimes will long outlive him.

"No one can say with any certainty how much unexploded ordnance there is Ukraine, but we do know every day that the war rages on there are thousands of devices dropped. It's estimated that for every day's worth of ordnance dropped, it will take 30 days to clear it that means if the war ended tomorrow it would take at least 50 years to clear Ukraine. I probably won't be alive to see Ukraine free of unexploded ordnance and its likely my future children won't either. There will be devices to dispose of for generations."

UXO

New York threatened.

Waffledynamics said:

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New York threatened.

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They can have it…. /s

Russia is having difficulty fielding replacements for its tank losses, so why isn't it tapping its large stock of T-72s?

"Twenty-eight months into Russia's wider war on Ukraine, stocks of T-55s are down 31 percent, T-62s are down 37 percent and T-80Bs are down a startling 79 percent. But just nine percent of T-72s have left storage."

T-72s

74OA said:

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Russia is having difficulty fielding replacements for its tank losses, so why isn't it tapping its large stock of T-72s?

"Twenty-eight months into Russia's wider war on Ukraine, stocks of T-55s are down 31 percent, T-62s are down 37 percent and T-80Bs are down a startling 79 percent. But just nine percent of T-72s have left storage."

T-72s

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Saving them to use against their own people if they try to overthrow Putin?

Autoloader makes them more expensive to overhaul and restore than older models, but restoring it building newer ones gives more bang for buck. The original and early variants are just in a ****ty cost/value position for overhauling.

****ing russian missle strike on children's hospital in Kiev. Many killed. Otcs celebrate while Ukrainians gather to help rescue.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/xb1QHOncmO

Russia really has no reason to not continue until they get everything they want.

Might move that post other perspective thread as it's a political take and not tactical. It's a good post and worth discussing but if it's taken down it will get lost.

There's apparently nothing tactically that Ukraine could do that would remove Russia from the country. Russia is simply to big and to willing to sacrifice its people.

The one thing that could change the direction of this conflict would be true air superiority. Either side gets that and it would change the calculations.

Agthatbuilds said:

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There's apparently nothing tactically that Ukraine could do that would remove Russia from the country. Russia is simply to big and to willing to sacrifice its people.

The one thing that could change the direction of this conflict would be true air superiority. Either side gets that and it would change the calculations.

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There is also nothing tactically Russia can do to go on a successful offensive. Throwing bodies doesn't work in 2024.

The current lines are perpetually frozen.

Russia is dying as a country. Their demographics are the worst in the world. Every 20-40 year old male that dies in Ukraine amplifies the issue further. This is also true for Ukraine, but Ukraine did not do the invading, Russia did. And as such Russia has experienced outsized casualty rates.

Teslag said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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There's apparently nothing tactically that Ukraine could do that would remove Russia from the country. Russia is simply to big and to willing to sacrifice its people.

The one thing that could change the direction of this conflict would be true air superiority. Either side gets that and it would change the calculations.

---

There is also nothing tactically Russia can do to go on a successful offensive. Throwing bodies doesn't work in 2024.

The current lines are perpetually frozen.

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I agree. The only difference I see is Ukraine's ability to maintain the status quo depends on factors beyond its control whereas Russia's ability to maintain the status quo or even make minor gains is relatively predictable.

Gordo14 said:

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Russia is dying as a country. Their demographics are the worst in the world. Every 20-40 year old male that dies in Ukraine amplifies the issue further. This is also true for Ukraine, but Ukraine did not do the invading, Russia did. And as such Russia has experienced outsized casualty rates.

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For sure, long term, this war is devastating to Russia, even if they were to somehow "win" it. One could summize that putin and his people have crossed a line from which they cannot return without significant gains.

It seems there is always this notion that Russia historically throws countless bodies at a front in war and eventually gets their way. And what do we base this? The Nazi invasion in WW2? There is a substantial difference between throwing your own bodies to defend your homeland against an invader during a time with still relatively little military advancement. There's literally no other option in that situation.

Fast forward to 2024. When was the last time Russia successfully won a war in a near peer setting by simply manpower alone? Certainly not Afghanistan or anything recent. Trying simply man power your way on the modern battlefield with small arms against drones, modern guided weapons (often with cluster warheads), and real time intelligence to show exactly where those surges come from is pointless and folly. It would never work in a thousand years regardless of how many living Russians there are.

Gordo14 said:

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Russia is dying as a country. Their demographics are the worst in the world. Every 20-40 year old male that dies in Ukraine amplifies the issue further. This is also true for Ukraine, but Ukraine did not do the invading, Russia did. And as such Russia has experienced outsized casualty rates.

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Possibly. If Russia wins, they can conscript 100% of the Ukrainians of certain ages to fight the next war. They are still in a tough spot, but their population would have grown. They will likely pay the Ukrainians less than they are contracting new recruits for in Russia.

At some point the music stops, but it goes on a lot longer if Russia wins.

Russia has already conscripted over 1 million blue collar Ukes from the SE industrial center at the beginning of the war. Most of their local conscripts that they threw in uniform were their undesirables (ethnic minorities, immigrants, Muslims) so while they have lost a generation of workers they gains more desirable eastern Ukes in an area they already considered theirs.

We can go back and forth but Ukraine does not have the manpower to conduct a widescale offensive to take back a large swatch of land. Yes they can hit some key targets and bleed out some men and supplies from Russia but Russia put itself in a wartime economy to somewhat handle this. Even at the beginning of the war there was NGOs with retired US special operations on the ground and they said they could not figure out what Ukraine's strategy was other than lob artillery. Neither was going a good job of having troops go under the artillery.

Vietnam and Afghanistan had insurgencies that understood how to use the terrain to fight a guerilla war, they fought when they had the advantage. If they did not they would retreat to right another day. Ukraine is not using the terrain in the same way and is trying to use Western weapons where they don't fully understand how to use them. I read the other day that a Patriot system lasted less than 30 days in country before it was taken out. Welp there goes another billion in taxpayers money.

Countries like Georgia, Poland, and other adjacent ones need to push for a treaty. For the most part the lines are not going to change too much further from what they are now. Plus the USA needs to focus on it's own inventory with all of the conflicts going on or getting hot around the world.

Agthatbuilds said:

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74OA said:

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Teslag said:

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It seems there is always this notion that Russia historically throws countless bodies at a front in war and eventually gets their way. And what do we base this? The Nazi invasion in WW2? There is a substantial difference between throwing your own bodies to defend your homeland against an invader during a time with still relatively little military advancement. There's literally no other option in that situation.

Fast forward to 2024. When was the last time Russia successfully won a war in a near peer setting by simply manpower alone? Certainly not Afghanistan or anything recent. Trying simply man power your way on the modern battlefield with small arms against drones, modern guided weapons (often with cluster warheads), and real time intelligence to show exactly where those surges come from is pointless and folly. It would never work in a thousand years regardless of how many living Russians there are.

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Exactly. That's the defeatist mindset Putin's disinformation programs are working to plant in the West's collective psyche. It's amazing how easily people buy into it.

Forgotten, for example, is Russia's defeat in WWI when its huge army of conscripted peasants eventually collapsed and went home to start a revolution and kill the czar.

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True. That revolution was helped ushered on by Germany.

France and England were on the verge of revolution at the time as well due to the poor results in the field.

Obviously Russia cannot simply dump bodies in perpetuity as there is a limit. It just doesn't appear Russia is anywhere near that limit today.

As others have said, it likely doesn't much matter what either side does, this war is frozen in place.

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The limit has grown since Afghanistan. I posted a video quite awhile back from a YouTube channel called Paper Skies by the son of a former Soviet aviator who delves into Soviet aviation stories that goes into how and why. He has a really good insight into Russian and Soviet culture because he grew up in it, and it's absolutely fascinating most of the time.

Anyway, the video explains the origin of, "cargo 200/300" and how the Soviets, and mainly the Russians, capitalized on, "The Black Tulip," which was the moniker given to the An-12 since it was used to repatriate so many bodies from Afghanistan. There was a song written about it by a very popular Soviet/Russian singer that brought a lot of attention to it, but the Russians, in only a way they could do, managed to turn it around through movies and TV to desensitize their populace to dead soldiers by dehumanizing them through the use of the, "cargo 200/300" label in movies and TV. Through so much exposure and repetition of the term in action movies and the like, they got average people to think of dead soldiers as mere cargo and simply a fact of life. That social engineering effort of the 80's and 90's is a large part of why Russian culture looks upon the deaths in Afghanistan and Ukraine so differently.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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74OA said:

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Teslag said:

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It seems there is always this notion that Russia historically throws countless bodies at a front in war and eventually gets their way. And what do we base this? The Nazi invasion in WW2? There is a substantial difference between throwing your own bodies to defend your homeland against an invader during a time with still relatively little military advancement. There's literally no other option in that situation.

Fast forward to 2024. When was the last time Russia successfully won a war in a near peer setting by simply manpower alone? Certainly not Afghanistan or anything recent. Trying simply man power your way on the modern battlefield with small arms against drones, modern guided weapons (often with cluster warheads), and real time intelligence to show exactly where those surges come from is pointless and folly. It would never work in a thousand years regardless of how many living Russians there are.

---

Exactly. That's the defeatist mindset Putin's disinformation programs are working to plant in the West's collective psyche. It's amazing how easily people buy into it.

Forgotten, for example, is Russia's defeat in WWI when its huge army of conscripted peasants eventually collapsed and went home to start a revolution and kill the czar.

---

True. That revolution was helped ushered on by Germany.

France and England were on the verge of revolution at the time as well due to the poor results in the field.

Obviously Russia cannot simply dump bodies in perpetuity as there is a limit. It just doesn't appear Russia is anywhere near that limit today.

As others have said, it likely doesn't much matter what either side does, this war is frozen in place.

---

The limit has grown since Afghanistan. I posted a video quite awhile back from a YouTube channel called Paper Skies by the son of a former Soviet aviator who delves into Soviet aviation stories that goes into how and why. He has a really good insight into Russian and Soviet culture because he grew up in it, and it's absolutely fascinating most of the time.

Anyway, the video explains the origin of, "cargo 200/300" and how the Soviets, and mainly the Russians, capitalized on, "The Black Tulip," which was the moniker given to the An-12 since it was used to repatriate so many bodies from Afghanistan. There was a song written about it by a very popular Soviet/Russian singer that brought a lot of attention to it, but the Russians, in only a way they could do, managed to turn it around through movies and TV to desensitize their populace to dead soldiers by dehumanizing them through the use of the, "cargo 200/300" label in movies and TV. Through so much exposure and repetition of the term in action movies and the like, they got average people to think of dead soldiers as mere cargo and simply a fact of life. That social engineering effort of the 80's and 90's is a large part of why Russian culture looks upon the deaths in Afghanistan and Ukraine so differently.

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As long as the "mere cargo" keeps coming from the hinterlands, and not from Moscow and/or St Petersburg, it will keep working at least until groceries and items that come from the hinterlands stop showing up on shelves in the big city stores.

74OA said:

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Ukraine is littered with unexploded Russian ordnance, so Ukraine is training women as EOD specialists. The consequences of Putin's crimes will long outlive him.

"No one can say with any certainty how much unexploded ordnance there is Ukraine, but we do know every day that the war rages on there are thousands of devices dropped. It's estimated that for every day's worth of ordnance dropped, it will take 30 days to clear it that means if the war ended tomorrow it would take at least 50 years to clear Ukraine. I probably won't be alive to see Ukraine free of unexploded ordnance and its likely my future children won't either. There will be devices to dispose of for generations."

UXO

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For reference;
There Are Still Thousands of Tons of Unexploded Bombs in Germany, Left Over From World War II
quote from article written in 2016

• Even now, 70 years later, more than 2,000 tons of unexploded munitions are uncovered on German soil every year. Before any construction project begins in Germany, from the extension of a home to track-laying by the national railroad authority….,,,,

I can't even fathom the colossal effort it will take to cleanse all of that country, and that used to be my very job. That part of the country will never be the same again IMO, as with all of Russias wars.

Actually super curious as to the actual dud rates of the Russian munitions right now over there. Haven't been able to find a reliable source on that as of yet and I've looked more than once already.

Eliminatus said:

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I can't even fathom the colossal effort it will take to cleanse all of that country, and that used to be my very job. That part of the country will never be the same again IMO, as with all of Russias wars.

Actually super curious as to the actual dud rates of the Russian munitions right now over there. Haven't been able to find a reliable source on that as of yet and I've looked more than once already.

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From the UXO article: "Friends of Ukraine-EOD has partnered with MAT Kosovo, a world-renowned explosive ordnance disposal training team to deliver this training to Ukrainian nationals. Since the conflict began, devastatingly more than 1,000 Ukrainian mine clearance operators have been killed, and increasing capacity in this area is an absolute priority. With almost 60% of Russian ordnance that is dropped in Ukraine not exploding, (the average is usually 15% - the high rate is due to the age of the devices and how they have been stored) this means Ukraine is one of the most heavily contaminated countries in the world."