***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,670,279 Views | 47934 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Eliminatus
74OA
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France also continues to raise its support for Ukraine. Now planning for a repair depot in Ukraine.

"Ukraine operates 386 pieces of KNDS equipment, particularly Leopard tanks and Caesar cannons, and the company still has 250 pieces to deliver based on orders received, which translates to a requirement for "lots and lots of support" according to Petitcolin. Lecornu also discussed French plans to train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers, saying rebuilding capacity is "the big priority" for the Ukrainian army."

KNDS
Who?mikejones!
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https://instagr.am/p/C77Jc_MRL6g

Bradley vs btr in a game of chicken
AtticusMatlock
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Those HAWKS missiles are no joke. We don't use them any more and have a ton in storage. Road mobile, small platform, easy to move around. Still useful for short range interceptions, including SRBMs. In real combat they've had approximately 85% effectiveness.
74OA
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More info on the recent Ukrainian missile strike on Luhansk. There are several claims that the unitary warhead (single high explosive) variant of ATACMS was used, which would be a first sighting of it in Ukraine. Plus, other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.
74OA
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Eliminatus
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PKM, not PCM. In case anyone else was super confused at first like me and trying to figure out what those pixels were in the beginning.

Honestly, a damn decent theft worth the effort. The PKM is legitimately one of the best squad level machine guns ever built.
sclaff
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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JB!98
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sclaff said:


Battle of Britain it is!
AtticusMatlock
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Reports of a Su-57 being destroyed yesterday. Russian milbloggers seem to be confirming. Hit on the ground at an airbase.
nortex97
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NY Post: Nato prepares for ground war with Russia. Sitrep with many updates (special report.). Orban; elections, then ceasefire/negotiations.

Davis with Ted Potok: strikes on Russian radars backfires.


A Su-57 was apparently damaged in a drone strike overnight, something like 600km from Ukraine. I don't think Russia is using these in the SMO but it's an interesting target to be sure. They've only produced 15-20 of them, I don't think the sensor suite/integration went well.
Eliminatus
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First pics up from RU milbloggers. They are not happy. Not a direct hit it looks like but a couple yards from the nose maybe. These things have not even hit real production yet so I imagine there is a dearth of replacement parts available. I think it is safe to assume that it is out of action. Well, that would imply it was actually IN action though... Either way, this is a pretty big blow at the PR level at the very least. To cue the meme, "What Russian air defense doing??"

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Most of Vovchansk is under control of Ukraine Defense forces, - spokesperson

https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/8-june-most-of-vovchansk-is-under-control-of-ukraine-defense

This was reported 17 hours ago as I type this. Not entirely sure what has changed. DeepStateUA doesn't show much new. AFU control south of the river, Russia controls northwest of the river and the northern outskirts, and northeast of the river is a big gray zone.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ammunition depot exploded in Rakitne district of Belgorod region

https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/9-june-ammunition-depot-exploded-in-rakitne-district-of-belgorod

https://t.me/astrapress/57248
AtticusMatlock
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What's most shocking to me and probably the Russian milbloggers is why the heck their top of the line, super-expensive, super-high-tech, only a few in the existence of the world, jet was just sitting out on a tarmac and not at least in a hangar.
docb
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/Kk3a4wyAwc
Maybe air defenses are getting softened up. Ukranian jet strikes into Russian territory for the first time in the conflict.
txags92
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AtticusMatlock said:

What's most shocking to me and probably the Russian milbloggers is why the heck their top of the line, super-expensive, super-high-tech, only a few in the existence of the world, jet was just sitting out on a tarmac and not at least in a hangar.


Complacency. Despite evidence to the contrary, orcs didn't think they can be hit there.
74OA
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docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/Kk3a4wyAwc
Maybe air defenses are getting softened up. Ukranian jet strikes into Russian territory for the first time in the conflict.
Ukraine has emphasized suppression of Russian air defenses in the interborder area for a long time now and more recently on striking distant bases and industrial complexes to force Russia to relocate IAD assets to protect them.

Perhaps that campaign has finally succeeded in creating exploitable gaps in the arc of Russian air defenses around Ukraine?
74OA
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AtticusMatlock said:

What's most shocking to me and probably the Russian milbloggers is why the heck their top of the line, super-expensive, super-high-tech, only a few in the existence of the world, jet was just sitting out on a tarmac and not at least in a hangar.
Yep. More details on the SU-57 STRIKE.
benchmark
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Maybe we should 'sell' our ATACMS to France and let them decide how Ukraine should use them. Wait, what did I just type?

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims targeting air defense complexes near Dzhankoi, Chornomorske, Yevpatoriya in occupied Crimea


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/10-june-general-staff-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine-claims-targeting
74OA
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Ukraine has received the first of 60 Gepards bought and refurbished by the US. Ukraine previously received 67 Gepards from Germany, so this will almost double their inventory.

SIAP
74OA
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Particularly important now that the French and British have authorized use of their weapons to strike into Russia.

Eliminatus
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An interesting development that may/may not have direct implications for the ongoing war. This is in the broadest realm of geopolitics wrt to the war but still may be important in the coming months and years.

Russia has softened their stance with the Taliban for a couple of years now and have been openly discussing removing them off their official terrorist organization list. In my mind there is only one real feasible reason for this. Russia wants Taliban help against what they perceive as an existential threat from the west. Open to debate of course. It is no secret that Russia has been increasingly reliant on their own foreign allies to help in their war against the Ukes. We all know about N.Korea, China, and other various countries feeding in supplies and troops. Africa and latin America coming to mind.

I don't believe that the final decision of unlisting the Taliban has been made yet but the international forums referenced in the article are ongoing as we speak and the Taliban are in attendance with Russia. Something to keep an eye on if yall follow this stuff. The Taliban doesn't have much in the way of material aid to lend but what they do have is motivated fighters and quite a few of them. If Russia can convince them that a partnership would be mutually beneficial, they can spin out a setting of Taliban fighters in Ukraine would be the same as fighting western interests. The Taliban do get excited about fighting westerners. If worst case happens and Russia becomes de facto allies with them, we might just see the everlasting global jihad come to Ukraine in time. Pure speculation of course right now and only one end result of a massive decision tree of choices, but don't think it is no longer outside the realm of possibility either. How f'ing disgusting would it be to see this occur though? Talk about selling your soul to the devil and something even I didn't contemplate with my bias against Russia politics. Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

https://www.voanews.com/a/diplomat-russia-moving-closer-to-delisting-afghanistan-taliban-as-terrorist-group/7628566.html
74OA
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Nice rundown of the various western weapons that Ukraine's air force is using and how the roughly 85 incoming F-16's may be initially employed.

HAMMER

Also, now that F-16s are getting close to delivery, it's a good time to look at which weapons may come with them.

WEAPONS
74OA
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benchmark said:

Maybe we should 'sell' our ATACMS to France and let them decide how Ukraine should use them. Wait, what did I just type?


Not perfect, but it's a step in the right direction and is having a positive operational effect.

"What we're seeing is Russia has to bring back [from the Ukrainian border] its logistics" from 10 kilometers to 50 or 60. That shift is slowing the advances the Kremlin made during the more than six months Congress debated approval of a $60 billion aid package and other nations waited for Washington to act."

USNI
benchmark
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74OA said:

Not perfect, but it's a step in the right direction and is having a positive operational effect.
I suppose. However, range limiting ATACMS seems to be a terribly wasteful use of a high-value and limited-supply resource IMO.
74OA
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

Not perfect, but it's a step in the right direction and is having a positive operational effect.
I suppose. However, range limiting ATACMS seems to be a terribly wasteful use of a high-value and limited-supply resource IMO.
........hence my comment of "not perfect."
74OA
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More details about Ukraine's successful anti-access/counter-air campaign against the Russian air force including the downing of two scarce AEW aircraft at very long range.

SAMBUSH
Gilligan
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74OA said:

More details about Ukraine's successful anti-access/counter-air campaign against the Russian air force including the downing of two scarce AEW aircraft at very long range.

SAMBUSH


Modify and adapt. Use what you have in unconventional ways to level the playing field.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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jagvocate
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We have Russian activity in Florida waters to report too if anyone wants to do so

docb
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jagvocate said:

We have Russian activity in Florida waters to report too if anyone wants to do so
I wouldn't worry about it. I think we have pretty good tabs on those 4 vessels.
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