Putin has failed to conquer the Ukrainians, so he has apparently opted to punish them instead by knocking their country down around them. War criminal, indeed.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Italy sending another SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine. Netherlands sourcing another Patriot system, too.

IADS

Where will Russia's first non-Ukrainian target be?

This. Ukraine and Russia are already shooting at each other with other countries' weapons. Russia shooting at a NATO country invites them to shoot back the same way Ukraine shooting at Iran or China would invite them to the conflict.

"A multi-national effort to provide Kyiv with additional FPV drones has officially begun, thanks to the launch of an industry competition. Led by the United Kingdom, the competition will dish out funds to successful bidders in hopes of delivering significant quantities FPV drones to Ukraine."

DRONES

Sitrep.

Business Insider reports half of Czech supplied/sourced ammo is (initially) unusable, coming from Africa/Asia etc where it was stored improperly.

Quote:

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Central Europe's largest ammunition supplier said that quality and cost issues meant that half of the shells it's sourcing for Ukraine can't be sent directly to the country, according to the Financial Times.

"Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components," Michal Strnad, CEO of Czechoslovak Group, or CSG, told the paper.

"It's not an easy job," he added.

CSG, which has been acquiring ammo on behalf of the Czech government for Ukraine, has found that supplies being brought in from Asia or Africa are often missing components, or need work, the paper reported.

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Quote:

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Ukraine has been forced to limit itself to firing 2,000 shells per day for much of this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

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(Paywall, so excerpted above).

Not a lot of ground gained or lost lately. Marginal positional battles and trading artillery, drones, and missiles seems to be the game at the moment. Russia is still bogged down north of Kharkiv, too.

Russia has reportedly lost a substantial number of its 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers over the past month.

VIDEO

More on drones from ISW.

ISW: Russians complain about superior Ukrainian drone & EW capabilities

Quote:

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Select Russian military commentators complain about superior Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on the battlefield, continuing to highlight the rapid and constant tactical and technological innovation cycles that are shaping the battlespace in Ukraine. A Russian milblogger who formerly served as a "Storm-Z" unit instructor posted a list of complaints on June 4 detailing the challenges that Russian forces face in repelling Ukrainian drones and claimed that effective and pervasive Ukrainian drone use is now the "leading factor" in Ukraine's ability to repel Russian offensive actions.[1]

The milblogger made six points about the Russian-Ukrainian drone disparity, claiming first and foremost that Ukrainian troops have a large numerical advantage in first person view (FPV) drones and FPV drone operators. The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian assault groups have a 3-4:1 FPV drone advantage over Russian assault units, while Ukrainian mechanized groups have a 6-10:1 FPV drone advantage over comparable Russian units.

The milblogger noted that Ukraine also has specialized and centralized drone units within existing Ukrainian ground units, which allows Ukrainian forces to better integrate reconnaissance and attack drone capabilities into basic tactical maneuvers. Russian forces, by contrast, lack the centralized and organized drone-unit system and adequate EW and electronic reconnaissance (ER) capabilities to counter Ukrainian drones.[2]

Another milblogger, whose initial post from May 31 spurred the former Storm-Z instructor to weigh in on the issue, noted that specialized Ukrainian drone units have heavily targeted and destroyed unprotected Russian armored equipment in the Avdiivka direction, inhibiting Russian offensive prospects in the area.[3] The milblogger emphasized that the provision of FPV drones and required EW and ER systems to Russian forces is done on an ad hoc volunteer basis, as there is no centralized supply mechanism from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

These remarks on Russia's need to centralize its drone warfare capabilities echo recent calls made by a cadre of Russian commentators, including former Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos) head Dmitry Rogozin.[4] As Ukrainian forces adapt and better integrate new technologies into their force, Russian forces will likely feel pressured to do the same in order to retain technological and tactical parity on the battlefield. This offense-defense and capability scaling race is central to the development of combat means in a contemporary war.

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FPV drones have driven many changes, one of which is the proliferation of Russian DIY "cope cages" since their formal support system is too rigid to promptly react.

ACTION-REACTION

Refinery in Rostov on fire. Super close video and a commentor asked if there is anti drone curtains hanging off the tower on the left. I think that's correct but I am not a petro chem person to be sure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d9469e/very_close_video_of_refinery_fire_in_rostov_russia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

JFABNRGR said:

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Refinery in Rostov on fire. Super close video and a commentor asked if there is anti drone curtains hanging off the tower on the left. I think that's correct but I am not a petro chem person to be sure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d9469e/very_close_video_of_refinery_fire_in_rostov_russia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

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Those curtain things are not found on regular columns in refineries or chemical plants, that must be some type of improvised drone protection system they have tried to install.. looks more like a giant Christmas tree

That is one hell of a fire at that refinery. Drone operator deserves a steak dinner for that hit. That's gonna cause some severe disruption at that facility.

Not sure why the OP of that Reddit post deleted the video, but here it is:

Edit: Apparently because he reposted it.

BREAKING:

Ukrainian drones strike the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region.

The refinery has been on fire for hours
pic.twitter.com/ZUYA6uxQ2Z

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 6, 2024

NM

Strategic Update:

Putin's Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians

Vladimir Putin has portrayed himself as a defender of global stability, leading a powerful nation that offers a robust economic, military and cultural alternative to the West.

One challenge to his vision: Russia's population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse.

At least 150,000 Russians are dead on the battlefield, according to Western estimates. Nearly a million fled the country after the war began. The number of births is at its lowest in more than two decades, with bigger-than-average drops in babies born in some regions closest to the fight.

The Russian president has called raising the birthrate a national priority. He declared 2024 "the year of the family" and enacted subsidies for those with three or more children. Putin has pledged to spend up to $157 billion on measures to support families and children over the next six years. Russian society itself, he said, has to change, with large families becoming more common.

The biggest single boost to Russia's population in recent years came when the country annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, adding around 2.4 million inhabitants. Russia hasn't included Ukrainian territories it has claimed in the war in its latest population counts.

"The most successful population program that the Kremlin has had has been annexing neighboring territories, not increasing the birthrate," said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., who studies Russian demographics.

What happens with decreasing population and no civilian economy

Some truth to that. Relatedly, Ukraine's population in territory it controls is roughly 31 million (likely at best), and lower than that of military-age males, with a TFR of around 0.7.

The Times journalists compared the UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023. Judging by this table, the younger generation of 20-year-old boys and girls is disappearing in Ukraine. If there were 200,000 guys of this age in 1921, now they are around 70,000. pic.twitter.com/CEvzpnibgz

— S p r i n t e r F a m i l y (@SprinterFamily) March 31, 2023

Rybar Live: Special military operation, June 5
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «On the Ugledar direction, fierce fighting continues in Paraskovievka. According to the latest data, Russian troops control about 40 percent of the settlement» pic.twitter.com/oU7arBj9GE

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) June 6, 2024

Not sure how to imbed an instagram link.
Basically this guy comparing if Czech resisted Nazi Germany in 1938 to what's happening in Ukraine today.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7Pkn1MtbUc/?igsh=bzNtMXkyZ2lmeXdl

lb sand said:

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Not sure how to imbed an instagram link.
Basically this guy comparing if Czech resisted Nazi Germany in 1938 to what's happening in Ukraine today.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7Pkn1MtbUc/?igsh=bzNtMXkyZ2lmeXdl

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Replace "reel" with a P, delete everything after the ?


https://instagr.am/p/C7Pkn1MtbUc

At D-Day commemoration, parallels drawn between Putin's aggression today and that of the Axis during WWII.

NORMANDY

nortex97 said:

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Global Hawk/Triton etc. is a lot different than a predator/avenger (MQ-9) type platform with hellfires. And Russia has A2A assets and launch platforms that are simply not analogous to the Houthi rebels.

This would by definition be a bloodless retaliation. It seems probable they will at the least attempt it. Notably, the range of the APG-66 radars on the MLU block 20 F-16's won't really help the UAF folks out with this threat, and it's not clear if the Saab platform will either.

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I'm not talking in regards to drone or A2A capabilities between the Houthis and the Russians and the systems employed. I am talking about the political realties of the two different situations.

In Yemen, we are over Yemeni territory and we are active striking them...our losses should (and are) expected.

For Russia to overtly shoot down a US/NATO drone operating over international waters, in a war we are not actively involved in (if we were, there would not be a Russian alive in Ukraine), is a completely different situation and would be massively escalating.

No, I don't believe it's probable at all that Russia will shoot one down. I do believe they will continue to harass what they can and that may lead to an "accident" of some sort.

Macron announces France will supply Mirage 2000-5's to Ukraine. The -5 is the air superiority variant, which will be a nice complement to the multi-role F-16.

JETS

USA*** said:

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nortex97 said:

---

Global Hawk/Triton etc. is a lot different than a predator/avenger (MQ-9) type platform with hellfires. And Russia has A2A assets and launch platforms that are simply not analogous to the Houthi rebels.

This would by definition be a bloodless retaliation. It seems probable they will at the least attempt it. Notably, the range of the APG-66 radars on the MLU block 20 F-16's won't really help the UAF folks out with this threat, and it's not clear if the Saab platform will either.

---

I'm not talking in regards to drone or A2A capabilities between the Houthis and the Russians and the systems employed. I am talking about the political realties of the two different situations.

In Yemen, we are over Yemeni territory and we are active striking them...our losses should (and are) expected.

For Russia to overtly shoot down a US/NATO drone operating over international waters, in a war we are not actively involved in (if we were, there would not be a Russian alive in Ukraine), is a completely different situation and would be massively escalating.

No, I don't believe it's probable at all that Russia will shoot one down. I do believe they will continue to harass what they can and that may lead to an "accident" of some sort.

---

There is certainly a grey line there. I happened to be lucky and watch one of our RQ4s in real time go in the black sea squak off then on at same time the moscva was sunk and then same bird circle the sink site transponder on the next day.

I remember being shocked we did that so brazenly but also glad we did. It was the signature on the sinking.

So providing target location is that direct or indirect support? Depending on the stake holder I believe both can be true at the same time.

As to whether it's direct or indirect support, consider how the US Navy would respond if Cuba were to sink one of our capital ships while a Tu-95 was circling overhead.

lb3 said:

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As to whether it's direct or indirect support, consider how the US Navy would respond if Cuba were to sink one of our capital ships while a Tu-95 was circling overhead.

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I know what you mean but a TU-95 is a weapons carrier, and RQ4 isn't. Again, "accidents" happen, but I don't believe they would overtly shoot down a US/NATO drone.

There is a gray area indeed if we are supplying direct, real time, targeting information to the Ukrainians....Russian would have to prove it, though.

OSINT server I'm in says launches detected of Kh-101/555 missiles by Tu-95MS from Volgograd and Saratov regions.

A little more on the Mirage fighters France will provide to Ukraine.

"French President Emmanuel Macron has disclosed plans to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine. This follows the recent and unexpected announcement that the Ukrainian Air Force will be getting a pair of Saab 340 airborne early warning and control aircraft from Sweden. It also comes amid an ongoing multi-national effort to supply Ukraine with U.S.-made F-16s."

FIGHTERS

EU says Ukraine has met the prerequisites for membership talks. Long way to go still, but this is a big step forward in the overall strategic calculus. Plus other Ukraine-related news.

UPDATES

Russian-occupied Luhansk now.

Reportedly, a Russian military base is under attack. pic.twitter.com/kBES7saG2I

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 7, 2024

Air burst. The vid on Reddit is even more clear.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/emjSusHvtb

Europe continues to step up. The Netherlands joins the initiative of Denmark and Sweden to purchase 230 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine.

IFV

Contents of newest, $225 million U.S. weapons package for Ukraine, per @DeptofDefense (announced today by the @WhiteHouse) pic.twitter.com/IBF0lK1aSS

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) June 7, 2024

Quote:

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Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Umanske village in Donetsk region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-june-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-full-occupation-8266

DeepstateMap corroborates.

Quote:

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Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Paraskoviyivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-june-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-full-occupation

DSM does not yet corroborate. There may be an update later today.