***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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docb said:

benchmark said:

For those interested in reading the originating source and not RT's spin ... The Economist: Ukraine's Desperate Struggle to Defend Kharkiv

For those intested in "Armchair Warlord" since his tweets are often posted on this thread ...
Tyler 'Armchair Warlord' Weaver


Wow. That Tyler Weaver guy is a real piece of work. I knew he was obviously pro Russian but it seems the guy is seriously creepy weird too. Figures. Thanks for the background on that guy. Definitely helps with gauging credibility of his posts.
His tweets should be nowhere in this thread.
2wealfth Man
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Quote:

The BTR-50 is a 15-ton, diesel-fueled armored tractor with two crew and space for up to 20 passengers. It usually packs a heavy machine gun.
seems insane to doom 22 to death from both a human and military perspective. It reeks of a modern day bonsai attack.
Teslag
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2wealfth Man said:

Quote:

The BTR-50 is a 15-ton, diesel-fueled armored tractor with two crew and space for up to 20 passengers. It usually packs a heavy machine gun.
seems insane to doom 22 to death from both a human and military perspective

They don't have a choice. They simply dont' have the equipment.
2wealfth Man
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Quote:

Six months later, the Russians have lost in battle at least four BTR-50s that the analysts at Oryx can confirm. One got hit by a Javelin anti-tank missile while attacking Ukrainian lines west of Novomykhailivka on or right before Sunday.

The Ukrainian army's 79th Air Assault Brigade holds the line in that areaand that brigade's anti-tank missileers are notoriously bloodthirsty. It's unsafe to send a modern T-72 tank with hundreds of millimeters of armor against the 79th Air Assault Brigade; it's suicide to send a BTR-50 with just 10 millimeters of armor.
sounds like a fun time to be had with the 79th Air Assault Brigade; maybe the Orcs can send them Christmas Cards
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian army using TOS-1 and MLRS GRAD to shell Bilohorivka in Luhansk region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/21-may-russian-army-using-tos1-and-mlrs-grad-to-shell-bilohorivka#google_vignette
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Due to clarified information, on the night of May 19, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed the Russian Project 22800 missile ship "Cyclone" in Sevastopol, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/21-may-due-to-clarified-information-on-the-night-of-may-19
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russia launched exercise with tactical nuclear weapons. Iskander, Tu-22M3 bombers and Mig-31K with Kinzhal missiles will be equipped with "special purpose warheads"


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/21-may-russia-launched-exercise-with-tactical-nuclear-weapons
MaroonStain
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When orcs start using horse-drawn carriages, then we will know the real war ready state.
nortex97
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Due to clarified information, on the night of May 19, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed the Russian Project 22800 missile ship "Cyclone" in Sevastopol, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/21-may-due-to-clarified-information-on-the-night-of-may-19
A loss that will impact Russia's ability to execute short-range Kalibr missile strikes from the seas around Crimea. Practically brand new, this corvette launched last August.

Separately, differing reports:

Waffledynamics
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Regarding the second Tweet, I've seen it said that Ukraine is focusing more on trying to hold the South side of Vovchansk while they bleed Russia in the Northern part.

I saw this description in an interesting OSINT group I'm in:

Quote:

Vovchansk is a sprawling city that nearly agglomerates with two other towns to its west: Hatyshche and Synelnekove. The northern half of Vovchansk is quite cleanly split from the southern half by a small river and some fields. Hatyshche is to the west, and it is surrounded by a forest that would give cover to the attackers practically all the way into northern Vovchansk. It is this forest that is causing issues, because it extends almost uninterrupted all the way to Synelnykove and southwestern Vovchansk. This essentially gives all those Russian infantry a great place hide and make positions so they can conduct infiltration assaults
.
Since the flank is "exposed" nearly all the way down the western side, you need to cover all of those positions. Not retreating across the river rather than battling it out for the northern halfespecially as there is just 1 bridge and you don't want to get cut off from itmay be suboptimal. Retreating behind the river allows you to observe it and forces the attacker to expose himself. It also then leaves the option of hunting them in the urban environment which, although not ideal, is better than engaging in close quarters combat where the exchange ratio is usually 1:1 which the AFU cannot afford
P.U.T.U
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And we already know Russia has issues getting a mass of troops across rivers
nortex97
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Budapest dissents on 14th round of sanctions:
Quote:

Budapest's position might contradict most of the EU, but it is in line with most of the world, Szijjarto added.
The Hungarian diplomat took issue with "crazy statements"made by leading EU politicians about sending NATO troops to Ukraine, noting that such talk is becoming "increasingly dangerous" and raises the risk of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.

"There is no way the Hungarian military will take part in this, there is no way Hungarian territory will host such actions, there is no way a single eurocent of the Hungarian taxpayers will be allocated for it," Szijjarto vowed.

Hungary joined NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2003. However, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has dissented from the EU and US policy of arming Ukraine, urging instead a negotiated end to the conflict with Russia. Hungary has not sent any weapons to Kiev, nor allowed its territory to be used for their delivery, despite tremendous pressure from Brussels and Washington.
FPRI podcast on Russia's new offensive is very good.

Waffledynamics
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Russian MoD claimed they recaptured Klischiyivka, South of Bakhmut. DeepState's map shows part of the village is a gray zone at most After their claims of taking Bilohorivka and now this, it would be extra wise to take Russia's capture claims with a bucket of salt and seek corroboration.
Teslag
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Russia desperately needs the appearance of momentum after their latest offensive has stalled. I guess they need to fake it till they make it.
Touchless
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nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.
74OA
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Russia is waging a shadow war on the West: sabotage, EW, spying and misinformation--some of which makes its way to posts here. All intended to undermine support for Ukraine.

"Because many Russian intelligence operatives already are sanctioned, Western officials and experts say the Kremlin is shifting tactics, hiring others for hybrid operations, nonmilitary strategies including cyberattacks, election interference and disinformation, and attacks on foes of President Vladimir Putin. With crucial elections in the West, officials say they believe the tempo of such activities will only increase, and some want tougher countermeasures."

COVERT
ABATTBQ11
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Touchless said:

nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.


Well, it's from RT, so we should expect nothing less.
74OA
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Touchless said:

nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.
More to the point, I can't think of a modern conflict during which the political and military leadership didn't occasionally clash. Bush and Cheney ended up rebuking Schwarzkopf, for example, after disagreement over when to conclude Desert Storm. It happens not infrequently and generally means elected officials are exercising their authority to provide direction to the military which is, after all, supposed to be conducting operations to achieve the war's political objectives.
2wealfth Man
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74OA said:

Touchless said:

nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.
More to the point, I can't think of a modern conflict during which the political and military leadership didn't occasionally clash. Bush and Cheney ended up rebuking Schwarzkopf, for example, after disagreement over when to conclude Desert Storm. It happens not infrequently and generally means elected officials are exercising their authority to provide direction to the military which is, after all, supposed to be conducting operations to achieve the war's political objectives.
You can't even begin to imagine the amount of dysfunction that has existed between political and military leaders over the years. Haig and the British Leadership in WWI were almost always at odds.
lb3
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Touchless said:

nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.
War is just politics by other means.
nortex97
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2wealfth Man said:

74OA said:

Touchless said:

nortex97 said:

Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.
Quote:

Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

I didn't read the article and just going off this quote, but I have a hard time believing this. If military objectives aren't first when your country is under attack, your political goals are irrelevant. There will be no Ukraine to lead politically if they are not successful militarily. 95% of their population is in support of defending their country and winning this war. There is nothing more important politically, than defending your country and winning the war.
More to the point, I can't think of a modern conflict during which the political and military leadership didn't occasionally clash. Bush and Cheney ended up rebuking Schwarzkopf, for example, after disagreement over when to conclude Desert Storm. It happens not infrequently and generally means elected officials are exercising their authority to provide direction to the military which is, after all, supposed to be conducting operations to achieve the war's political objectives.
You can't even begin to imagine the amount of dysfunction that has existed between political and military leaders over the years. Haig and the British Leadership in WWI were almost always at odds.
And French (the Brit general) and the French (country/Joffre) leadership. Anyway, without going off topic it's funny how some changes in leadership are panned in various outlets, such as Shoigu on the Russian side vs. the Ukrainian 'shake up' as directed by Zelensky.

Ongoing prosecution/arrests of former commanders/military leadership on both sides too, even this week. These are fundamentally corrupt countries, alike. Greed is a basic human trait but I am still amazed so many seem to think it's a 'good' idea to try to steal in such a setting (seems suicidal in Russia).

Separately, odd time of day for such an alert:

74OA
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In addition to its suicide configuration and carrying anti-aircraft missiles, Ukraine's Sea Baby naval drone has now been equipped with artillery rockets, as well.

INNOVATION
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian aviation launching glide bombs at the border districts of Kharkiv region non-stop
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/22-may-russian-aviation-launching-glide-bombs-at-the-border
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Missile strike reported at Hladkivka at occupied part of Kherson region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/22-may-missile-strike-reported-at-hladkivka-at-occupied-part

Quote:

Missile strike reported in Mospyne at occupied part of Donetsk region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/22-may-missile-strike-reported-in-mospyne-at-occupied-part
74OA
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Stockholm announced a three-year package of support for Ukraine worth roughly Euro 6.5 billion on Wednesday, plus other notes from the conflict.

UPDATES
74OA
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Corruption in Ukraine is a direct result of lessons it learned during a half century of servitude under its Russian USSR masters. The difference today is Russia has doubled down on corruption except when cited to punish disloyalty or failure, while Ukraine is making steady progress reforming itself. It still has a long road ahead, though.

PROGRESS
74OA
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"The Kremlin appears to be developing a system to legalize the status of Russia's so-called "compatriots abroad," likely as part of its efforts to set information conditions to justify further aggression and hybrid operations abroad as "protecting" Russia's compatriots."

"Russian courts reportedly began forcibly hospitalizing Russians charged with political crimes such as spreading "fake" information about the Russian military, in psychiatric hospitals."

ISW
jbeaman88
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Just an FYI, Google Maps has been updated in the Mariupol region and now shows the extent of the destruction resulting from the Russian siege and capture of that city. Not much left standing in the central area.
Waffledynamics
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P.U.T.U
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Can someone translate that? I don't have X or read whatever language that is
Waffledynamics
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Thank you for pointing this out. Incredibly sad to see all of the destruction.
Eliminatus
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P.U.T.U said:

Can someone translate that? I don't have X or read whatever language that is


Google has an inbuilt translator that can do images. It's honestly a great tool and been using it for years now. You don't even need an app for it, just google it and it's a browser function you can throw in an image and it'll spit out a translation. Couldn't be easier


74OA
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Updated list of total US military aid to Ukraine. I didn't realize we've provided so many armored vehicles (over 2,000) of various types.

STUFF
JFABNRGR
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Multiple ATACAMS strike in Crimea minutes ago. MTF
Waffledynamics
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