Hearing today in the House regarding Blinken's decision to allow Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with ATACMS. That's a lot of Russian assets ripe for the picking. And those assets have to be concentrated as well making for some really ripe opportunities.

2/ The bold, outermost line shows the maximum range of ATACMS (300km); the solid line before that shows the maximum range of the mid-range ATACMS the US has provided to Ukraine (170km); and the dotted, innermost line shows the maximum range of HIMARS (77km).

The shaded parts of… pic.twitter.com/9HW3oiwMBd

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 22, 2024

Importantly, now that Russia has abandoned the Kerch Bridge LOC to supply the Crimea and Kherson fronts, its newly constructed alternative rail supply lines along the southern coast are now in range, too.

Rapid repair of railways is something Russia is actually very good at by design. Will be very difficult to disrupt now that the primary construction is complete.

Teslag said:

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Hearing today in the House regarding Blinken's decision to allow Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with ATACMS. That's a lot of Russian assets ripe for the picking. And those assets have to be concentrated as well making for some really ripe opportunities.

2/ The bold, outermost line shows the maximum range of ATACMS (300km); the solid line before that shows the maximum range of the mid-range ATACMS the US has provided to Ukraine (170km); and the dotted, innermost line shows the maximum range of HIMARS (77km).

The shaded parts of… pic.twitter.com/9HW3oiwMBd

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 22, 2024

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Essentially we have restricted the Ukrainians from a potential deep fight (Corps) or even a Division fires fight. Really fighting with both hands tied behind their backs and making them only have a deep fight in Crimea then stay defensive elsewhere.

Quite a huge story by Reuters: "Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines", according to "four Russian sources" close to Putin.https://t.co/qQYYHhQETd

Not the first times Putin indicates readiness for a ceasefire, most notably during the Istanbul negotiations at the…

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 24, 2024

Umm…no.

Interesting meeting: is Yanukovich perhaps part of post-war plans on their side?

Putin and Russia's defence minister are currently in Belarus meeting with Lukashenko

Former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych has also arrived in Belarus. The last time he did was in March 2022https://t.co/fBzORNhkJo pic.twitter.com/0tC1YQxojt

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) May 24, 2024

These 'purges' could significantly impact the war effort/goals:

Exclusive: The purge is the culmination of wartime infighting and competition for resources between the security services and the Defense Ministry — and marks a victory for the FSB, the successor to the Soviet KGB, in currying President Putin’s favor. https://t.co/b9FGg88Heg

— козлов (@petrkozlov) May 24, 2024

Russia’s Small Diameter Bomb-Like Weapon Seen In Action For The First Time

We’ve now seen evidence of complete UMPB D-30SN glide bombs as well as of them being launched by a Su-34 Fullback.

Story: https://t.co/ZDRdOldQtn

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) May 23, 2024

Video showing the effectiveness of the S400 against incoming ATACAMs. At least thats what is being reported. For those not going to view I will just tell you its zero.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/zNqsEqnZ92

It's going to be really helpful to have those air defenses softened up for the f-16s

The F-16's aren't gonna be anywhere near an S-400 battery. Business insider source so take it or leave it, but it is true the S400's have been well targeted a few times by Ukraine (undoubtedly with US assistance). Article is fair, imho, and dips into the fact that these units are also embedded in multi-layer defenses, hitting them involves jamming/other resources too, so some of this might be a weak comms link on the Russian side, and/or hitting them when still not fully set up etc as they are moved pretty frequently (I can't remember but I think it often takes something like several hours to fully set up a patriot battery).

And ATACMS is part of it but Neptune/storm shadows have been used too.



The first 6 or 12 F-16's should be in Ukraine I'd guess within 60 days?

Almost all the sources I have seen said Ukraine will have F16s operational in July. May have all rooted from the same source though.

The S300/400 were designed to be anti-aircraft, not missile defense. They had to get major upgrades to be able to shoot down missiles and they honestly don't seem to be doing a good job. Russia has always said they had 100% shoot down of everything but the world has seen differently.

With that being said the F16s aren't going anywhere near S300/400s unless it's a suicide mission. Too easy of a target

The F-16's aren't gonna be anywhere near an S-400 battery

And that particular S-400 battery won't disrupt an F-16

Quote:

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Russia has always said they had 100% shoot down of everything but the world has seen differently.

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Ya, I think I saw a tweet posted last week where a Russian milblogger posted "evidence" of an ATACMS shoot down because there were unexploded cluster submunitions on the ground. Nevermind that those are designed to explode over the target and spread those munitions over the ground and they have a corresponding high dud rate.

Hence why cluster munitions are illegal in most countries. Lots of children in places like Afghanistan have gotten injured handling unexploded munitions

Ukraine takes out a S-400....

GONE

.....and a strategic early warning radar.

GONE

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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Russia has always said they had 100% shoot down of everything but the world has seen differently.

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Ya, I think I saw a tweet posted last week where a Russian milblogger posted "evidence" of an ATACMS shoot down because there were unexploded cluster submunitions on the ground. Nevermind that those are designed to explode over the target and spread those munitions over the ground and they have a corresponding high dud rate.

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The M74 bomblet has a reported 2% dud rate.

Yep. The MGM140 carries 950 of those bomblets so a 2% dude rate will put about 20 unexploded ones on the ground. 2% doesn't sound high, but 20 of those things on the ground is a lot when it comes to civilians and accidents.

Teslag said:

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Yep. The MGM140 carries 950 of those bomblets so a 2% dude rate will put about 20 unexploded ones on the ground. 2% doesn't sound high, but 20 of those things on the ground is a lot when it comes to civilians and accidents.

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Yep, it all adds up. The cluster weapons Russia has been using against Ukraine have a dud rate of up to 40%. Add in mines and other types of unexploded ordnance and Ukraine has a monumental clean up ahead of it. Any Russian civilians hurt by Ukrainian counterfires are casualties of Putin's aggression.

"Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Friday that Russian forces were "bogged down" in their attempt to capture the northeastern border town of Vovchansk, but that fighting on the eastern front remained intense.

After initial success, "the enemy has got completely bogged down in street battles for Vovchansk and suffered very high losses in assault units," Syrskyi said, but added that fighting near the eastern cities of Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove was "intense"."

UPDATES

It'll be interesting to see if the UK produces evidence of Chinese lethal aid for Russia. Regardless, Putin could not keep up his aggression without the CCP's support. ".... senior U.S. officials have said Beijing's supply of dual-use goods has had a decisive impact in helping Moscow on the battlefield in Ukraine. Independent analyses of Chinese customs data and a U.S. intelligence assessment show that in 2023 some 90 percent of "high-priority" dual-use goods used in Russian weapons production were imported from China."

CCP

AtticusMatlock said:

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Rapid repair of railways is something Russia is actually very good at by design. Will be very difficult to disrupt now that the primary construction is complete.

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That single southern rail line has plenty of bridges/overpasses of various sizes, key junctions and freight stations which will be lucrative targets. Now that Ukraine is being well-supplied with ATACMS, those repair crews will be working overtime to keep resupply quantities ahead of Russian expenditures in the south. Ukraine doesn't have to destroy the line, just interdict it enough so it can't fully service Russian needs.

Looks like Wagner or pseudo Wagner is making appearances again in Ukraine. Honestly doesn't shock me in the least as a significant portion of them have the type of experience that Russia needs along with the all consuming need just for raw bodies. That mixed with Russia finally giving up all pretense about them being MOD assets. Came across this and thought it an interesting development for anyone who keeps a lookout for that group.

I don't have raw numbers but Russia has invested a not insignificant amount of effort into Africa lately and wonder if this deployment has any implications past just another troop movement. I guess time will tell ultimately.

Pretty good video on the current situation and the trajectory of the war. Discusses the likely reality that Russia's capability of taking over Ukraine has likely peaked. That Ukraine is strictly waging a war of attrition at this point because as long as Ukraine maintains backing from the West, Russia will very likely run out of time and resources in the mid to late 2020s.

Agreed. Seems to be the consensus across many channels today. It was always a question of if western aid would come. Now that it has Russia has largely run out of options for taking over Ukraine. Probably why they are also floating peace deals now along current lines.

Teslag said:

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Agreed. Seems to be the consensus across many channels today. It was always a question of if western aid would come. Now that it has Russia has largely run out of options for taking over Ukraine. Probably why they are also floating peace deals now along current lines.

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Now is the time to provide for and allow Ukraine to strike deep into russia's pocket books and find somewhere(s) to push back heavily along the lines.

Ukes need to get 20-30klics south of the river. A monumental task that will be in my prayers.

Interesting video of that doomed S-400 SAM site futilely trying to defend itself before being obliterated by an ATACMS.

"With the counter-air defense fight now in full swing, with ballistic missiles taking center stage as the weapon of choice, we should see these operations only increase. For Ukraine, the biggest limiting factor to these operations could be the number of ATACMS Ukraine gets and how Russia decides to reposition its air defenses in reaction to attacks. With F-16s entering the war soon, opening up holes in Russia's most advanced air defenses couldn't come at a more opportune time."

SAM

74OA said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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Rapid repair of railways is something Russia is actually very good at by design. Will be very difficult to disrupt now that the primary construction is complete.

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That single southern rail line has plenty of bridges/overpasses of various sizes, key junctions and freight stations which will be lucrative targets. Now that Ukraine is being well-supplied with ATACMS, those repair crews will be working overtime to keep resupply quantities ahead of Russian expenditures in the south. Ukraine doesn't have to destroy the line, just interdict it enough so it can't fully service Russian needs.

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Damage the line, wait for the repair crews to arrive (observing with drones), then target and kill experienced repair crews. This will slow down repairs

Gordo14 said:

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Pretty good video on the current situation and the trajectory of the war. Discusses the likely reality that Russia's capability of taking over Ukraine has likely peaked. That Ukraine is strictly waging a war of attrition at this point because as long as Ukraine maintains backing from the West, Russia will very likely run out of time and resources in the mid to late 2020s.

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It'll happen quicker than that. One of the reasons the Kremlin reacted with such particular outrage to the latest US aid authorization is because it will keep Ukraine in the fight through 2025 at which point analysts predict Russian industrial production will have peaked, its reserves of refurbishable armor in storage will be largely depleted at current loss rates and European defense production initiatives will finally come online to complement US aid. Time is not on Putin's side.

74OA said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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Rapid repair of railways is something Russia is actually very good at by design. Will be very difficult to disrupt now that the primary construction is complete.

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That single southern rail line has plenty of bridges/overpasses of various sizes, key junctions and freight stations which will be lucrative targets. Now that Ukraine is being well-supplied with ATACMS, those repair crews will be working overtime to keep resupply quantities ahead of Russian expenditures in the south. Ukraine doesn't have to destroy the line, just interdict it enough so it can't fully service Russian needs.

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They managed to derail a supply train not long ago with a drone strike. With Kerch being sidelined, this is the next best thing for the Ukes which is kinda interesting to me. The Ukes were not able to drop Kerch at its highest importance and make a huge impact on the front line capability of Russia overnight but now they have the opportunity to actually do more direct damage to Russian hardware and lives if they can successfully pull off a train interdiction campaign instead. I've seen my fair share of big messes but an ugly multi train car derail is hard for me to fathom in terms of clean up and fixing.

Ukraine is using the US Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) to great effect from its ex-Soviet fighters. 90% hit rate. Plus other updates. SITREP

That standoff glide bomb (and other US air weapons) will be equally effective against ground targets when employed by its F-16s, too. WEAPONS

74OA said:

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Ukraine is using the US Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) to great effect from its ex-Soviet fighters. 90% hit rate. Plus other updates. SITREP

That standoff glide bomb (and other US air weapons) will be equally effective against ground targets when employed by its F-16s, too. WEAPONS

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Putin knows pain is coming

Quote:

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President Zelenskyy says Ukrainian military have areas of Russian intrusion in Kharkiv under combat control

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/24-may-president-zelenskyy-says-ukrainian-military-have-areas

Earlier:

Quote:

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Ukrainian Armed forces have halted Russian offensive at Kharkiv axis and conducted counter-offensive actions, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/24-may-ukrainian-armed-forces-have-halted-russian-offensive

Context: Russian source. Rybar is fairly reputable, however.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Sivers’k Direction: Battles near Bilohorivka and advances south of Spirne
Situation as of 6 pm on May 24, 2024

In the Sivers’k direction, fighting continues in the vicinity of Bilohorivka. Some time ago, the enemy launched several local counterattacks northeast of the… pic.twitter.com/lpUPzNe2Ih

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) May 24, 2024

Ukraine Volunteer is still alive.

Amazing!

He should consider taking a break.

Scoop with @AlexHortonTX: many U.S.-made satellite-guided ammunitions have failed to withstand Russian jamming, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential assessments we obtained. Some weapons have stopped being used entirely. https://t.co/NdBcAylEuv

— Isabelle Khurshudyan (@ikhurshudyan) May 24, 2024

IMO this was THE root cause of Russia's invasion. Everything else was smoke an mirrors.

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2024

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Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia's ability to fight such a war.[19] Russian military leaders planning a war against NATO will have to assume that Ukraine might enter such a war on NATO's behalf regardless of Ukraine's membership status.[20] A front with NATO along Russia's entire western border with Europe presents the Russian military with serious challenges, as ISW has previously assessed, whereas a Ukrainian defeat would give Russia the ability to deploy its forces along Europe's entire eastern flank from the Black Sea to Finland.[21]

Russian victory in Ukraine would not only remove the threat of Ukraine as a potential adversary during a possible conventional war with NATO but would also provide Russia with further resources and people to commit to a large-scale confrontation with NATO. Regardless of how Russian victory would partition Ukraine between Russian annexation and the Kremlin-controlled puppet state that would follow Putin's desired regime change, Russia would have access to millions more people it could impress into military service and the majority of Ukraine's resources and industrial capacity. Putin and the Kremlin therefore likely view victory in Ukraine as a prerequisite to being able to fight a war with NATO and any ceasefire or negotiated settlement short of full Ukrainian capitulation as a temporary pause in their effort to destroy an independent Ukrainian state.

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⚡️Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation opened an inquiry into the 125th Brigade and its subordinate units over the improper organization of defenses in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 25, citing court documents filed earlier.https://t.co/ww3W0aldBz

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 25, 2024

Not good:

⚡️Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview published on May 25 that the U.S. has told Russia that if it uses nuclear weapons, there will be an American response using conventional weapons on Russian forces in Ukraine.https://t.co/0SE7202pAb

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 25, 2024

Related to this (which, yes, is a valid military target, but…):



Covered in today's sitrep.