If it is true the US is dictating Ukraine can't us US weapons to strike targets in Russia, then it is quite a disservice to Ukraine's ability to win the war. It is imperative to hit near and far targets in war.

The US officially dropped that policy during Blinken's visit.

Tanker123 said:

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If it is true the US is dictating Ukraine can't us US weapons to strike targets in Russia, then it is quite a disservice to Ukraine's ability to win the war. It is imperative to hit near and far targets in war.

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Welcome to page 100 of the thread!

Tanker123 said:

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If it is true the US is dictating Ukraine can't us US weapons to strike targets in Russia, then it is quite a disservice to Ukraine's ability to win the war. It is imperative to hit near and far targets in war.

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Yeah, this has to be extremely frustrating for the Ukraine brass because I'm sure they can clearly see that Russia is stacking thousands of troops, equipment, and supplies just a few hundred yards into Russian territory, but they can't do anything about it or else the US will cut off the stream of support. In reality, they should be smashing the hell of out of all that stuff with HIMARS before it even makes it across the border and gets put to use against the Ukrainian forces. Russia knows they have a safe zone and can stack everything up close by with no concern or consequences. Huge advantage for Russia.

Check the link I posted yesterday. We dropped the policy and Ukraine is now weapons free.

txags92 said:

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Tanker123 said:

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If it is true the US is dictating Ukraine can't us US weapons to strike targets in Russia, then it is quite a disservice to Ukraine's ability to win the war. It is imperative to hit near and far targets in war.

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Welcome to page 100 of the thread!

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Thanks! lol

This war is fascinating from the perspective of seeing it all - new and accurate weapons, evolution of drone technology, massive WWI tactics, an incredibly inept adversary, Ukraine's lack of requisite offensive weapons to turn the tide, a country without a navy winning the naval war, M1 tanks being relegated to attack by fire only, Total War, millions of displaced civilians, Russian soldiers used as cannon fodder. What am I missing?

Teslag said:

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Check the link I posted yesterday. We dropped the policy and Ukraine is now weapons free.

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That Ukraine is allowed to use US weapons to fire on targets in Russia?

Correct. Hamstringing them like that was ridiculous from the start.

Tanker123 said:

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txags92 said:

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Tanker123 said:

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If it is true the US is dictating Ukraine can't us US weapons to strike targets in Russia, then it is quite a disservice to Ukraine's ability to win the war. It is imperative to hit near and far targets in war.

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Welcome to page 100 of the thread!

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Thanks! lol

This war is fascinating from the perspective of seeing it all - new and accurate weapons, evolution of drone technology, massive WWI tactics, an incredibly inept adversary, Ukraine's lack of requisite offensive weapons to turn the tide, a country without a navy winning the naval war, M1 tanks being relegated to attack by fire only, Total War, millions of displaced civilians, Russian soldiers used as cannon fodder. What am I missing?

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Yeah, sorry I was a bit sarcastic. The news we were hamstringing them like that was about a year old, but as was said above, we have apparently relaxed our restrictions to let them maximize effectiveness for what we are giving them.

Rossticus said:

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He "made clear" that he wasn't going to invade Ukraine, that the Russian military was only conducting exercises, and that the US was spreading Russophobic disinformation. Sooooooo…yeah.

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And now is floating the idea the absurd notion that the Kiev government isn't legitimate so he won't be able to negotiate even if he wanted to.

Teslag said:

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Correct. Hamstringing them like that was ridiculous from the start.

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Concur big time. That decision is in line with not giving Ukraine the requisite offensive weapons to kick Russian ass. Russia is more than willing to fight a war of attrition and Ukraine has little choice but to fight into the strength of the Russian military.

Teslag said:

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Correct. Hamstringing them like that was ridiculous from the start.

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It seems that we rarely, if ever, get the rules of engagement correct.

SPF250 said:

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Teslag said:

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Correct. Hamstringing them like that was ridiculous from the start.

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It seems that we rarely, if ever, get the rules of engagement correct.

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That's what you get when you let the politicians prosecute the war instead of handing it over to professionals and turning them loose.

"Ukraine launched a large-scale, long-range drone attack against oil infrastructure within Russia's borders. Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, in the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, was also targeted. The attacks come a day after it was confirmed that Ukraine had destroyed several Russian combat aircraft in a missile strike on Crimea's Belbek Air Base."

"Ukrainian officials have struck a more upbeat note about the situation in the region, which borders Russia.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said today the situation in the Kharkiv region has "stabilized" despite reports that Russian forces have advanced as far as 6.2 miles into Ukrainian territory in one area. "Today, our defense forces have stabilized the Russians where they are now. The deepest point of their advance is 10 kilometers," Zelensky told journalists."


Today's SITREP.

Agthatbuilds said:

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How many such systems have been lost so far? One or two or more?

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Trying to read through the fog I believe the number to be about 6 which isn't bad considering russians long range capabilities and improved longer range ISR lately.

Of note they have lost almost half the of M777 howitzers but I did come across a 2023 article that stated Ukraine is manufacturing their own version on a pace of 6 a month back then. BAE has a contract to replace parts on M777 now and is ramping up whole unit productions for delivery in later 2025. Hopefully at that time they will be for future wars and not this one.

"While the recent aid package includes the munitions necessary to defend against the ongoing Russian offensive, it also contained over 100 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) and 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APC)."

ARMOR

Is the $3.2 million unit cost for a Bradley accurate? It seems like a very efficient use of funds, especially given the success Ukraine is having with them. There are probably many additional costs I'm not considering, such as munitions, maintenance, and so on.

That drone attack inflicted some serious damage. Hopefully Ukraine can get a serious uptick in the production of those particular kamakazie type drones to continue the massive swarm attacks. Seems to be highly effective.

74OA said:

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"While the recent aid package includes the munitions necessary to defend against the ongoing Russian offensive, it also contained over 100 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) and 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APC)."



ARMOR

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I believe we have given Ukraine 200 M2s already. However, I am positive they have lost some.

Tanker123 said:

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74OA said:

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"While the recent aid package includes the munitions necessary to defend against the ongoing Russian offensive, it also contained over 100 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) and 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APC)."



ARMOR

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I believe we have given Ukraine 200 M2s already. However, I am positive they have lost some.

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Over 80 M2s lost.

Since Russia doesn't seem to care much about their poor population maybe it's time for a massive drone strike to one of the lucrative neighborhoods. Maybe if they start killing rich kids/families that would put more pressure on Putin to stop this non sensible war. Or maybe it would do the opposite?

That would be insanely stupid. Ukraine would put their western support a risk and face far greater reprisals from Russia. If you want to bring The Ukraine war to the Moscow and St. Petersburg suburbs, drive fuel prices through the roof by attacking refineries and when winter comes around, start taking out electrical distribution networks.

I really don't know how Russians think and I don't think most of us ever will. But it's obvious a coup on Putin is not coming from the poor. It won't likely happen until you affect the rich. While higher fuel prices effect the economy I think they are still unlikely to get Putin out of power. People that thought they were untouchable start getting hit them who knows? Regardless of the method I think Ukraine needs to find a way for the Russian elite to suffer. Better ideas and I'm all ears.

Not sure this demographic ratio shift is true, but devastating if so.

⚡️‼️🗣️Khodorkovsky predicts Kharkov to fall this year, Odessa in 2025, and all of Ukraine in 2026:

🏹 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian Opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky

🔶️ Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war – 5.4% of Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP – with the most commonly used Russian… pic.twitter.com/Mq5WAXMSqt

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 17, 2024

Why? It is a tactical/strategic update.

Medvedev's war objectives represent a class of public statements about Russia's strategic goals, and many on this thread have championed more deep strikes into Russia so that warrants consideration of the real/possible consequences of this strategy.

🔻 The situation in Netailove has somewhat clarified, where the Russian Armed Forces assault groups were able to break through the enemy's defenses in the center, occupying the territory of the school, and reach the western outskirts of the village.

The advance of the Russian…

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) May 18, 2024

Not sure what you are taking away makes any sense to me. If Ukraine is going to be given/use more long range weapons to strike further into Russia long term it makes sense that Russia will try to have a larger buffer zone from this war, but I don't know if they will be able to make that happen near term.

Quote:

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At Kharkiv axis Russian troops attempted to advance at Lyptsi and Vovchansk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/18-may-at-kharkiv-axis-russian-troops-attempted-to-advance

Quote:

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At Kharkiv axis Ukrainian military push near the enemy towards Hlyboke, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/18-may-at-kharkiv-axis-ukrainian-military-push-near-the-enemy

Quote:

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Russian aviation launching glide bombs towards Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka, Liptsy

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/18-may-russian-aviation-launching-glide-bombs-towards-kozacha

Quote:

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At Kupyansk axis Ukrainian Defense forces conducting assault actions near Synkivka and Terny with partial success, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/18-may-at-kupyansk-axis-ukrainian-defense-forces-conducting

The above is represented by the blue rifle icons in the below picture.

Quote:

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At Kupyansk axis Ukrainian Defense forces repelled Russian assault attempt near Berestove, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/18-may-at-kupyansk-axis-ukrainian-defense-forces-repelled

The above is represented by the red icon in the below picture.

FJB24 said:

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Not sure what you are taking away makes any sense to me. If Ukraine is going to be given/use more long range weapons to strike further into Russia long term it makes sense that Russia will try to have a larger buffer zone from this war, but I don't know if they will be able to make that happen near term.

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Absolutetly not true. Russia wants all of Ukraine as their "buffer zone" as evidenced by thier failed attempt to take Kiev 2 yrs ago.

Nice summary, mostly right imho:

‼️What is the #DragonBear? This is a comprehensive China-Russia modus vivendi of systemic coordination in strategic areas.

1️⃣ Emerging Power Dynamics:
- Russia is positioning itself as a significant free rider in the global power struggle between the US and China.
- Moscow…

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) May 17, 2024

FJB24 said:

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Not sure this demographic ratio shift is true, but devastating if so.

⚡️‼️🗣️Khodorkovsky predicts Kharkov to fall this year, Odessa in 2025, and all of Ukraine in 2026:

🏹 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian Opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky

🔶️ Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war – 5.4% of Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP – with the most commonly used Russian… pic.twitter.com/Mq5WAXMSqt

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 17, 2024

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Well I can't predict the final outcome on this terror operation started by russia but this guy didn't include the $500 drones that the Ukrainians have about perfected (on their own) and its about impossible to put a value on the power of will and the skill the Ukes have often displayed.

He also doesn't take into account the potential response by Poland, Romania, and the rest of Europe should orcs get to the western border.

That said he can go FO.