US and EU still talking about how best to use frozen Russian billions to help Ukraine. Just do it.

$50B

100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

pagerman @ work said:

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ttu_85 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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That can't be good for morale. Hope is very motivational. Doom is just about the opposite.

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To us that's true but even Stalin the hardcore soulless commie invoked the patriotism of Mother Russia by 1942, after praises of the party fell on deaf IDGaF ears. But in the name of Momma Russia, millions of bodies where thrown into the meat grinder and they still came on. That worked, sort of, in the 1940's.

Thing is they dont have the demographics or population to play that game these days. Old habits die hard in the land of icy hearts. This mentality is going to ruin them.

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In WW2 you could make the very real argument that the Germans were an existential threat to the Russian people (forgetting Stalin or communism). Can't say that about voluntarily invading Ukraine.

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Agree. But the point was the traditional Russian approach of throwing bodies at the military problem is no longer applicable given their current demographical, political, geographical situation. This obviously make the idea of voluntarily invading Ukraine foolish.

Russia thought they'd win in a month. Then when their logistics catastrophically failed in the first months of the war they went back to throwing bodies at bullets without even looking at the demographic condition. Very dumb in their part.

ttu_85 said:

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pagerman @ work said:

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ttu_85 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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That can't be good for morale. Hope is very motivational. Doom is just about the opposite.

---

To us that's true but even Stalin the hardcore soulless commie invoked the patriotism of Mother Russia by 1942, after praises of the party fell on deaf IDGaF ears. But in the name of Momma Russia, millions of bodies where thrown into the meat grinder and they still came on. That worked, sort of, in the 1940's.

Thing is they dont have the demographics or population to play that game these days. Old habits die hard in the land of icy hearts. This mentality is going to ruin them.

---

In WW2 you could make the very real argument that the Germans were an existential threat to the Russian people (forgetting Stalin or communism). Can't say that about voluntarily invading Ukraine.

---

Agree. But the point was the traditional Russian approach of throwing bodies at the military problem is no longer applicable given their current demographical, political, geographical situation. This obviously make the idea of voluntarily invading Ukraine foolish.

Russia thought they'd win in a month. Then when their logistics catastrophically failed in the first months of the war they went back to throwing bodies at bullets without even looking at the demographic condition. Very dumb in their part.

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May have been dumb but now they are learning first hand what works and what no longer works to fight a modern war.

ttu_85 said:

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pagerman @ work said:

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ttu_85 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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That can't be good for morale. Hope is very motivational. Doom is just about the opposite.

---

To us that's true but even Stalin the hardcore soulless commie invoked the patriotism of Mother Russia by 1942, after praises of the party fell on deaf IDGaF ears. But in the name of Momma Russia, millions of bodies where thrown into the meat grinder and they still came on. That worked, sort of, in the 1940's.

Thing is they dont have the demographics or population to play that game these days. Old habits die hard in the land of icy hearts. This mentality is going to ruin them.

---

In WW2 you could make the very real argument that the Germans were an existential threat to the Russian people (forgetting Stalin or communism). Can't say that about voluntarily invading Ukraine.

---

Agree. But the point was the traditional Russian approach of throwing bodies at the military problem is no longer applicable given their current demographical, political, geographical situation. This obviously make the idea of voluntarily invading Ukraine foolish.

Russia thought they'd win in a month. Then when their logistics catastrophically failed in the first months of the war they went back to throwing bodies at bullets without even looking at the demographic condition. Very dumb in their part.

---

Demography is a long term problem. If they win, they will have more fighting age people (Ukrainian) than when they started. Perhaps not enough to invade Poland, but enough to wage smaller fight. Think of how many Ukrainians they conscripted after their 2014 invasion,

This is plausible, and if anyone can do it, it would be Rheinmetall. Fun fact, the Abrams gun (XM256) is/was made by them.

Laser targeting would make sense to get away from GPS jamming, and they've been able to go out over 70km in tests for a few years. Interesting to see them doing this with their South African arm though. Gerald Bull could not be reached for comment.

Both sides are clearly working on deploying more/longer range artillery systems.

⚡️🇷🇺2S35 Koalitsiya-SV is a different beast to the 2S19 Msta-S pic.twitter.com/3gaZMjVK3l

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 6, 2024

JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

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Even the Navy's hypervelocity projectiles have a range of ~half that. My guess is that these are likely rocket assisted rounds with the rocket engine having a long burnout phase serving as gas generator to provide a base bleed.

lb3 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

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Even the Navy's hypervelocity projectiles have a range of ~half that. My guess is that these are likely rocket assisted rounds with the rocket engine having a long burnout phase serving as gas generator to provide a base bleed.

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That would be really interesting to see. If you had asked me five minutes ago I would have said those systems were mutually exclusive of each other as an immediate answer but after thinking about it for a bit, I guess that could be overcome with some clever engineering. Even "damn, why wasn't this a thing already" territory. Would be some long bois for sure though.

JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

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They firing it with this?

No, the M2005 V-lap round, enhanced, basically does this.

Quote:

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A long-time NATO customer awarded the South African subsidiary Rheinmetall Denel Munition a framework contract for the supply of 155mm ammunition of the proven Assegai product line.

The five years framework contract provides for the delivery of 155mm M2005 V-LAP (Velocity Enhanced Long Range Artillery Projectile) projectiles, M92 modular charges, and various fuses. The 155mm M2005 V-LAP projectile features a high fragmentation effect as well as an extended range through rocket and base bleed technology. The rocket assists V-LAP projectile together with the Assegai M92 tactical charges features barrel erosion and muzzle signature reducer properties. It is designed according to the NATO Joint Ballistics Memorandum of Understanding (JBMoU) requirements and qualified according to STANAG guidelines. The ammunition is already deployed in several NATO countries.

"We are proud to support our long-time NATO partner with Rheinmetall's world leading long-range artillery suite. Framework agreements provide long-term ammunition supply assurance and a flexible system for procuring ammunition over the course of a year", stated Jan-Patrick Helmsen, CEO of Rheinmetall Denel Munition. "The rocket assist V-lap together with the tactical assegai charges M92 with barrel wearer reducer and muzzle flash reducer will support both the soldiers in the battlefield and the logistics and maintenance troops."

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The Germans are again, really, really good at artillery. This will be in very limited quantities though, I'd expect. It could be useful this summer against command nodes/bridges/counter battery fire etc.

Eliminatus said:

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lb3 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

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Even the Navy's hypervelocity projectiles have a range of ~half that. My guess is that these are likely rocket assisted rounds with the rocket engine having a long burnout phase serving as gas generator to provide a base bleed.

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That would be really interesting to see. If you had asked me five minutes ago I would have said those systems were mutually exclusive of each other as an immediate answer but after thinking about it for a bit, I guess that could be overcome with some clever engineering. Even "damn, why wasn't this a thing already" territory. Would be some long bois for sure though.

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being laser guided it will need small fins for the terminal flight phase. It's possible they could also have small foldout wings that open at apogee.

Nice look at how France's strategic outlook has undergone a radical change since Putin's war began.

MACRON

RogerEnright said:

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ttu_85 said:

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pagerman @ work said:

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ttu_85 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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That can't be good for morale. Hope is very motivational. Doom is just about the opposite.

---

To us that's true but even Stalin the hardcore soulless commie invoked the patriotism of Mother Russia by 1942, after praises of the party fell on deaf IDGaF ears. But in the name of Momma Russia, millions of bodies where thrown into the meat grinder and they still came on. That worked, sort of, in the 1940's.

Thing is they dont have the demographics or population to play that game these days. Old habits die hard in the land of icy hearts. This mentality is going to ruin them.

---

In WW2 you could make the very real argument that the Germans were an existential threat to the Russian people (forgetting Stalin or communism). Can't say that about voluntarily invading Ukraine.

---

Agree. But the point was the traditional Russian approach of throwing bodies at the military problem is no longer applicable given their current demographical, political, geographical situation. This obviously make the idea of voluntarily invading Ukraine foolish.

Russia thought they'd win in a month. Then when their logistics catastrophically failed in the first months of the war they went back to throwing bodies at bullets without even looking at the demographic condition. Very dumb in their part.

---

Demography is a long term problem. If they win, they will have more fighting age people (Ukrainian) than when they started. Perhaps not enough to invade Poland, but enough to wage smaller fight. Think of how many Ukrainians they conscripted after their 2014 invasion,

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Far too optimistic about the ability to effectively field a resentful population into the military structure. They didn't "conscript" so much as they enlisted lots of feeble-minded people in Donbas/Crimea who largely aligned with Russian propaganda interests already. Trying to do that with the restive Ukrainians in the western half would make our efforts to build security forces in AFG and IRQ look like a cake walk.

Putin rattling his nuclear sabre yet again, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES

74OA said:

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Putin rattling his nuclear sabre yet again, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES

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Tells me things are going his way and the aid should have gone much sooner than it did.

"In a most unusual development in the Black Sea 'drone war,' Ukraine appears to have begun arming uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), better known as drone boats, with heat-seeking air-to-air missiles."

BAIT?

74OA said:

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"In a most unusual development in the Black Sea 'drone war,' Ukraine appears to have begun arming uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), better known as drone boats, with heat-seeking air-to-air missiles."

BAIT?

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Would love to see them do that with some anti-sub torpedos and have the drone boats go out and linger where the subs have been launching cruise missiles from. We probably have the aerial surveillance capability to narrow that down for them pretty well. Put a solar panel on the drone and I bet it could linger for quite a while pretty quietly waiting on a sub to show up.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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"In a most unusual development in the Black Sea 'drone war,' Ukraine appears to have begun arming uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), better known as drone boats, with heat-seeking air-to-air missiles."

BAIT?

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Would love to see them do that with some anti-sub torpedos and have the drone boats go out and linger where the subs have been launching cruise missiles from. We probably have the aerial surveillance capability to narrow that down for them pretty well. Put a solar panel on the drone and I bet it could linger for quite a while pretty quietly waiting on a sub to show up.

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Ukraine is working on underwater drones that mimic torpedoes. Don't know if they can detect and target subs, though.

SUICIDE
ANOTHER

Various Russian shared footage of a Russian Ka-29 helicopter destroying a Ukrainian maritime drone, claiming that the uncrewed boat carried the Soviet-era P-73 and/or P-60 air-to-air missiles, and, moreover, the USV attacked the aircraft with one of its missiles but missed. pic.twitter.com/vYkDSaZjj6

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 6, 2024

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the… pic.twitter.com/4n7QtuqLag

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the kamikaze role. It is said that the design of the drone allows the installation of modules for firing at enemy coastal targets. There is also said to be the possibility of installing air defense systems on the platform.

sclaff said:

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Various Russian shared footage of a Russian Ka-29 helicopter destroying a Ukrainian maritime drone, claiming that the uncrewed boat carried the Soviet-era P-73 and/or P-60 air-to-air missiles, and, moreover, the USV attacked the aircraft with one of its missiles but missed. pic.twitter.com/vYkDSaZjj6

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 6, 2024

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I was hoping to see this video months later after recovery of the helo and its crew from the sea floor, getting to see FP view of that rocket streaking up off the drone and into the helo.

More on long range shells. Ramjet technology. Reaches Mach 3. Thats less than 2 minutes to target at 100KM.

It seems Rheinmetal has been pretty passionate about supporting Ukraine in their public disclosures. In doing so they are also probably influencing western weapon makers to do some of the same even if its just R&D or battlefield testing.

Very interesting vid only 10 months old on a technology that is nearing a century in age. 2nd vid shows arty shell in missile defense role.

Yep, lots of work being done on this artillery technology.

RAMJET

⚡️ Media: Russia no longer using Crimean Bridge to supply front lines.

Russia has stopped using the Crimean Bridge to transport military equipment to the front lines and is instead using overland routes, The Independent and investigative group Molfar reported on May 6.

Read… pic.twitter.com/Lc18ARUwva

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 6, 2024

Ukraine's defense industrial sector has far more capacity than it does funding to fully exploit it. So, it is soliciting EU investors to help it build more weapons in-country. With a hostile, aggressive, unhinged neighbor this will be essential for long-term security.

FIRMS

revvie said:

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Ag with kids said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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aezmvp said:

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You make a good point but would our stockpiles be sufficient to go toe to toe with China for an extended period? I have my doubts. I think the production and stockpile side of US defense policy has been ignored or mismanaged for a long time. Same with our repair and building side when it comes to naval capacity. But point taken on the doctrinal side.

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Big maybes. A war with China would be much different because of the different terrain.

Yes, production and stockpiles have been mismanaged, but we haven't needed those levels of usage and stockpiling. It's very difficult to justify the cost. I think this conflict has been a real eye opener not just for the military, but those funding it. This is not WWII where a car assembly line can just convert to tank production, and I think that has been lost on many people.

Naval capacity is the same as well, but we have been trying to fix that for some time. Autonomous warships have been in development for awhile, and they'll likely be important on whatever the next conflict is as shown in the Black Sea.

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I agree 100%.

And this is where I think the isolationists and "non-interventionalists" are completely delusional. You can't turn off the defense industry (or the "MIC" as they like to term it) and expect to spool up in any short time...like you said, it worked in WWII. But the materiel and weapon systems being built today operate on the decade scale, not the yearly scale.

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I hope the war in Ukraine has given us a "wake up call" on our supply chain and production issues on our ability to fight a prolonged conventional conflict.

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I can say that it definitely has ended opposition to enhancing our DIB but the stakeholders who matter.

JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

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The US Army recently canceled the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) program after evaluating a prototype. It could hit accurately out to 70km. The reason they canceled it was because of the very significant fatigue and erosion in the 58 caliber length cannon tube.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/12/us-army-cannon-artillery/

If someone is providing funding for a constant stream of replacement cannon tubes, it might be a very profitable project for Rheinmetal.

We are significantly ramping up production of ATACMS, which the Russians don't have a good answer for on the battlefield

https://www.newsweek.com/us-new-atacms-ukraine-1897435

Quote:

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The United States will soon have "a lot" of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to refill its stockpiles, allowing Washington, D.C., to provide Ukraine with key long-range capabilities without compromising U.S. arsenals, according to the U.S. Army's acquisition boss.

A "significant number" of ATACMS missiles were ordered several years ago and are "now hitting at just the right time to be able to support how we're supporting Ukraine without taking a hit to readiness," Doug Bush, the assistant secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology, said in remarks reported by Politico on Thursday. "There are a lot of ATACMS coming off that [production] line."

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China’s Increasing Role in Russia’s Defense Industry#Velsig #DragonBear https://t.co/FPRsWcedER

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) May 7, 2024

Carnegie endowment is a CIA operation but some good data points.



Russian military production/sustainment is very clearly dependent on their Chinese relationship.

Russia is definitely increasingly desperate as export controls and their own internal failure to keep up with the demands of this war wear on them. The continued aid and commitment of the west IS working. And as so many have said, it's no longer 1943 and Russia simply doesn't have the ability to use attrition in an offensive capability.

Ulysses90 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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100KM 155 Arty? Laser designated. I would like to see how that works even from modeling.

https://news.online.ua/en/rheinmetall-plans-to-supply-ukraine-with-100-km-range-artillery-shells-877918/

---

The US Army recently canceled the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) program after evaluating a prototype. It could hit accurately out to 70km. The reason they canceled it was because of the very significant fatigue and erosion in the 58 caliber length cannon tube.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/12/us-army-cannon-artillery/

If someone is providing funding for a constant stream of replacement cannon tubes, it might be a very profitable project for Rheinmetal.

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Interesting and a brand new article. All those other videos said barrel life should be better with ram jet technology but did say one of the MICs was using other than Ram Jet technology.

Personally I hope they figure it out....especially Rheinmetal even if it costs us some barrels.

NATO membership now gives long, narrow Finland invaluable strategic depth with its new Nordic allies.

RANGE

Another assassination plot targeting Zelensky, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES

aezmvp said:

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A different factor is exposing how ridiculously thin our material stock piles are and how they've become overly reliant on wunderweapons. Amazing, effective but too expensive to stockpile for a peer to peer conflict.

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We've made significant progress over the last two years expanding our defense industrial capacity for both low- and high-end munitions. It's not as though we haven't been paying attention to what's happening in Ukraine. For example:

ARTILLERY
BULK BUYS

Nammo is working with Boeing for a ramjet powered 155mm round.

https://www.twz.com/this-is-a-ramjet-artillery-shell-right-as-its-fired-out-of-a-howitzer