***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,669,162 Views | 47934 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by Eliminatus
nortex97
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Their best strategy will be to target the launchers. The range is primarily helpful in that it allows the Ukrainians to keep them further back, yet again there is also more surveillance assets on the Russian side now (space based, mostly, but they also even had an unmanned aircraft/drone doing recon over Odessa in the daytime yesterday).

These will cause some losses, but the real question is what will they use the 'area' versions for; infrastructure or military targets (airfields etc)? I agree Russia has shot down relatively few ATACM's once launched.
JFABNRGR
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nortex97 said:

Their best strategy will be to target the launchers. The range is primarily helpful in that it allows the Ukrainians to keep them further back, yet again there is also more surveillance assets on the Russian side now (space based, mostly, but they also even had an unmanned aircraft/drone doing recon over Odessa in the daytime yesterday).

These will cause some losses, but the real question is what will they use the 'area' versions for; infrastructure or military targets (airfields etc)? I agree Russia has shot down relatively few ATACM's once launched.
You are correct that would be best and I knew you would be here to tell us but UKR has either 38 or 39 HIMAR launchers, depending on source. Of these 1 completely destroyed and two damaged, though it could easily be two destroyed and one damaged.

Even with russias improvement in ISR capabilities, they stand no chance of putting up any worthy defense against them. IE one unit could conceivably take down the Kerch bridge but it would be quite the mission and likely suicidal at the proximity to the front required. Will be interesting to see if the F16s can be a force multiplier for the ATACAMS.

That said there are no shortage of targets between the current M39 (165KM) range and M57 (300KM) or even M48 (270KM) range.

I am not aware specifically, but with current size of the aid package it likely contains some resources to combat russias improved ISR capabilities.
ABATTBQ11
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I would love to know what is stopping us or anyone else from using cheap (relatively) low power (relatively) lasers to just blind drones, especially the small tactical battlefield drones, by hitting their optics. Is it really that difficult to focus something like an industrial laser cutter or laser cleaner at a short range of like a couple of miles or less? You don't need to burn it out of the sky and destroy it, just burn out the optical sensor to blind it. It wouldn't be something to combat everything, like rockets, mortars, and INS is or GPS guided suicide drones, but it could solve the problem of the tiny prosumer drones used as forward observers for those things.
74OA
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Looks like a M30A1 strike? 180,000 tungsten steel bee-bee-sized balls.

RADAR
SouthTex99
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74OA
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ABATTBQ11 said:

I would love to know what is stopping us or anyone else from using cheap (relatively) low power (relatively) lasers to just blind drones, especially the small tactical battlefield drones, by hitting their optics. Is it really that difficult to focus something like an industrial laser cutter or laser cleaner at a short range of like a couple of miles or less? You don't need to burn it out of the sky and destroy it, just burn out the optical sensor to blind it. It wouldn't be something to combat everything, like rockets, mortars, and INS is or GPS guided suicide drones, but it could solve the problem of the tiny prosumer drones used as forward observers for those things.
You're talking SHORAD, and we defend small drones in that range with EW devices and AD cannons firing proximity rounds. Lasers and HPM are close to fielding, but technologically not quite there yet. If it was easy.....

DE
74OA
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$1B from recently approved US assistance package already enroute to Ukraine, includes more ATACMS.

AID
Teslag
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ABATTBQ11 said:

I would love to know what is stopping us or anyone else from using cheap (relatively) low power (relatively) lasers to just blind drones, especially the small tactical battlefield drones, by hitting their optics. Is it really that difficult to focus something like an industrial laser cutter or laser cleaner at a short range of like a couple of miles or less? You don't need to burn it out of the sky and destroy it, just burn out the optical sensor to blind it. It wouldn't be something to combat everything, like rockets, mortars, and INS is or GPS guided suicide drones, but it could solve the problem of the tiny prosumer drones used as forward observers for those things.



Dronebuster handheld systems are now being fielded by Amy units. We got training on ours last month
AgLA06
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Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

I would love to know what is stopping us or anyone else from using cheap (relatively) low power (relatively) lasers to just blind drones, especially the small tactical battlefield drones, by hitting their optics. Is it really that difficult to focus something like an industrial laser cutter or laser cleaner at a short range of like a couple of miles or less? You don't need to burn it out of the sky and destroy it, just burn out the optical sensor to blind it. It wouldn't be something to combat everything, like rockets, mortars, and INS is or GPS guided suicide drones, but it could solve the problem of the tiny prosumer drones used as forward observers for those things.



Dronebuster handheld systems are now being fielded by Amy units. We got training on ours last month


Do they work? I've seen a lot of EW equipment in this conflict and it seems very little is effective.
74OA
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Here's an update on using Russia's own money to fund Ukraine.

PAYBACK
Teslag
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Seemed to. The instructors had us try them against DJI's and cheap drones off Amazon and they were able to both disrupt them or force them to land
74OA
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Teslag said:

Seemed to. The instructors had us try them against DJI's and cheap drones off Amazon and they were able to both disrupt them or force them to land.
Good news.
Ag with kids
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Teslag said:

Seemed to. The instructors had us try them against DJI's and cheap drones off Amazon and they were able to both disrupt them or force them to land
Are these made by WhiteFox?
Teslag
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I'd have to check. Not sure.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

I would love to know what is stopping us or anyone else from using cheap (relatively) low power (relatively) lasers to just blind drones, especially the small tactical battlefield drones, by hitting their optics. Is it really that difficult to focus something like an industrial laser cutter or laser cleaner at a short range of like a couple of miles or less? You don't need to burn it out of the sky and destroy it, just burn out the optical sensor to blind it. It wouldn't be something to combat everything, like rockets, mortars, and INS is or GPS guided suicide drones, but it could solve the problem of the tiny prosumer drones used as forward observers for those things.



Dronebuster handheld systems are now being fielded by Amy units. We got training on ours last month


Do they work? I've seen a lot of EW equipment in this conflict and it seems very little is effective.
Just getting started. Here's what the Army has selected. HANDHELD
lb3
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Seeing claims of the long-range ATACMS being used already.

Just need to start sending some ground launch Tomahawks.
74OA
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Excellent strategic analysis.

The 2024 campaign season is critical for Russia's success on the battlefield. After that, its materiel advantages will significantly erode.

Ensuring Ukraine weathers that period is why this latest US aid package is so important and why Russia is so infuriated that it passed.

Meanwhile, Europe must use the breathing space provided by renewed US resupply to reinvigorate its defense-industrial sector so it can take the strain off of US stockpiles. It is spending more on overall Ukraine aid than is the US, but we need it to contribute more military aid.

2024
JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

Excellent strategic analysis.

The 2024 campaign season is critical for Russia's success on the battlefield. After that, its materiel advantages will significantly erode.

Ensuring Ukraine weathers that period is why this latest US aid package is so important and why Russia is so infuriated that it passed.

Meanwhile, Europe must use the breathing space provided by renewed US resupply to reinvigorate its defense-industrial sector so it can take the strain off of US stockpiles. It is spending more on overall Ukraine aid than is the US, but we need it to contribute more military aid.

2024
I think critical for Ukraine to get russia to rethink its strategy and erode their bargaining power will be to continually strike strategic assets...anything that will make the war that much costly for russia....not limited to the following: key manufacturing, key logistics, O&G, C&C, anything air or sea assets.
Waffledynamics
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Full list:
-RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
-Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
-Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
-Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
-155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
-105mm artillery rounds;
-60mm mortar rounds;
-Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
-Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
-High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
-Logistics support vehicles;
-Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
-Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
-Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
-Precision aerial munitions;
-Airfield support equipment;
-Anti-armor mines;
-Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
-Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
-Night vision devices; and
-Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Translation:

Quote:

Source:
@NetGulagu

Russia is sending troops into the war zone from its 102nd Military Base in Armenia (Gyumri). Those who try to refuse to participate face imprisonment.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

In the Sumy region, border guards engaged in a battle with the Russian scout group of more than ten people, the State Border Service reported
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/25-april-in-the-sumy-region-border-guards-engaged-in-a-battle
74OA
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lb3 said:

Seeing claims of the long-range ATACMS being used already.

Just need to start sending some ground launch Tomahawks.
Pssst......it's a secret: ATACMS
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

74OA said:

Excellent strategic analysis.

The 2024 campaign season is critical for Russia's success on the battlefield. After that, its materiel advantages will significantly erode.

Ensuring Ukraine weathers that period is why this latest US aid package is so important and why Russia is so infuriated that it passed.

Meanwhile, Europe must use the breathing space provided by renewed US resupply to reinvigorate its defense-industrial sector so it can take the strain off of US stockpiles. It is spending more on overall Ukraine aid than is the US, but we need it to contribute more military aid.

2024
I think critical for Ukraine to get russia to rethink its strategy and erode their bargaining power will be to continually strike strategic assets...anything that will make the war that much costly for russia....not limited to the following: key manufacturing, key logistics, O&G, C&C, anything air or sea assets.
This! Ukes need to keep hitting them in the wallet over and over. Make it hurt to continue to be in Ukraine.

RuZZians don't care about human life. Hit 'em in the wallet.
JFABNRGR
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Gilligan said:

JFABNRGR said:

74OA said:

Excellent strategic analysis.

The 2024 campaign season is critical for Russia's success on the battlefield. After that, its materiel advantages will significantly erode.

Ensuring Ukraine weathers that period is why this latest US aid package is so important and why Russia is so infuriated that it passed.

Meanwhile, Europe must use the breathing space provided by renewed US resupply to reinvigorate its defense-industrial sector so it can take the strain off of US stockpiles. It is spending more on overall Ukraine aid than is the US, but we need it to contribute more military aid.

2024
I think critical for Ukraine to get russia to rethink its strategy and erode their bargaining power will be to continually strike strategic assets...anything that will make the war that much costly for russia....not limited to the following: key manufacturing, key logistics, O&G, C&C, anything air or sea assets.
This! Ukes need to keep hitting them in the wallet over and over. Make it hurt to continue to be in Ukraine.

RuZZians don't care about human life. Hit 'em in the wallet.
There is another element in that every tyrant needs to feel safe....meaning they have to have some level of firepower & security at the ready at all times. Big question is nobody really knows what that is for Putin. This includes armament (military) and trusted security persons (entities) around putin and protecting the state.

Pgone was a huge threat and taken out for it. Hopefully Ukraine and any home grown dissidents are working the inner circles while the orc war machine continues to be diminished. Would be great if some other parts of russia came under attack. IE chechnya losing kadyrov and deciding to go back to hating russia.
Gilligan
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I wonder if the rumors about Kadyrov being terminally ill are accurate and if so what would his death mean to the equation?

One of his sons just fill the void?
JFABNRGR
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Gilligan said:

I wonder if the rumors about Kadyrov being terminally ill are accurate and if so what would his death mean to the equation?

One of his sons just fill the void?
Its a good question. The only son I am aware of seems too young to fill the bridge gap between putins money and the chechen peoples.
Waffledynamics
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Gilligan said:

I wonder if the rumors about Kadyrov being terminally ill are accurate and if so what would his death mean to the equation?

One of his sons just fill the void?
Kadyrov's fighters would just be rolled into the Russian army more than they already are.
74OA
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EW is just one of many areas in which the US/NATO have gained invaluable intelligence during Putin's war.

LEARNING
74OA
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LMCane said:

it will be interesting to see how quickly our shipments can be airlifted to Poland now that the aid bill has passed. Hopefully will be seeing trains rolling east to Kyiv soon.
Sending materiel already prepositioned in Europe. ON THE WAY
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

8 person wounded as result of Russian missile strike at railway station in Balakliya of Kharkiv region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/25-april-8-person-wounded-as-result-of-russian-missile-strike

Quote:

Russian army conducted strikes at railway infrastructure across Ukraine: 3 killed, 4 wounded as result of attack at Udachne village of Donetsk region, 8 wounded at railway station in Balakliya, also damage at railway in Smila as result of morning missile strike
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/25-april-russian-army-conducted-strikes-at-railway-infrastructure
Waffledynamics
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Per South Korean "Yonhap News":

In reply to
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JFABNRGR said:

Gilligan said:

I wonder if the rumors about Kadyrov being terminally ill are accurate and if so what would his death mean to the equation?

One of his sons just fill the void?
Its a good question. The only son I am aware of seems too young to fill the bridge gap between putins money and the chechen peoples.

The son he seems to be trotting out into the spotlight with UFC fighters and celebs is about 17 or so. It seems like that's the kid Kadyrov has established as the heir apparent.

Edit: I promise I won't derail the tactical discussion, but felt I could help with this particular question.
74OA
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Ukraine is using iPads to control western weapons on its Russian fighters.

SMART
Ag with kids
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74OA said:

Ukraine is using iPads to control western weapons on its Russian fighters.

SMART
I'm skeptical that it's iPads. While I'm an Apple guy and live in the ecosystem, it wouldn't be happening in the normal system. Unless they're jailbroken...then they could be Unix tablets...
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