All is fair in war, Ukraine has been going after Russian O&G facilities, Russia has started attacking Ukraine power facilities. Both parties held off for a while but now they are going after civilian stations

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The Ukrainian President announces the signing of a 10-year security agreement with Latvia

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/11-april-the-ukrainian-president-announces-the-signing-of

Ukraine hesitated to hit civilian infrastructure in occupied areas but the reality has sunk in that they have to risk causing their citizens in occupied areas to suffer some in order to increase odds of success in the war, as Russia is fully exploiting that infrastructure. This may be some tacit admission that they understand they are unlikely to recover those territories even though they can't publicly say it.

+ SU25's for close air support and SU 27 fighters.

They had several dozen operational aircraft at the outbreak of the war, and would guess that attrition has reduced that number by more than half.

The F16's slated to go to Ukraine would upgrade capabilities of SU25 (as air to ground), SU24 (in alcm role), and MiG 29's in multi role capacity and would at least complement or add numbers to help SU27's with CAP.

Correct on the Froggers, though I haven't seen any evidence of their employment of late, and I think the Mi-8 helo fleet is probably more used up close for support.

There's really no indication the 6 (upgraded) block 15 F-16's being projected to go into service this summer will be used in any kind of air to ground role, in an initial operating capability. When they get dozens more online, sure.

⚡Politico: France imports growing levels of Russian LNG.

France has paid Russia $644 million for liquified natural gas in the first three months of 2024, making it the fastest-growing consumer of Russian LNG in the EU, Politico reported on April 11.https://t.co/kyRKOmDWmi

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 11, 2024

Large scale Russian missile attacks on western Ukraine the past 3 hours were heavily focused on Ukraine's extensive gas storage networks, the largest in Europe, storaing gas for several countries. pic.twitter.com/m9CCU0w705

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) April 11, 2024

The approximate paths of Russian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and Iranian drones aimed at destroying the largest underground gas storage terminals in Europe this morning.

About 70 projectiles were sent./1 pic.twitter.com/3DFfST0Uuc

— üzer ok (@uzer_ok) April 11, 2024

PJYoung said:

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Large scale Russian missile attacks on western Ukraine the past 3 hours were heavily focused on Ukraine's extensive gas storage networks, the largest in Europe, storaing gas for several countries. pic.twitter.com/m9CCU0w705

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) April 11, 2024

The approximate paths of Russian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and Iranian drones aimed at destroying the largest underground gas storage terminals in Europe this morning.

About 70 projectiles were sent./1 pic.twitter.com/3DFfST0Uuc

— üzer ok (@uzer_ok) April 11, 2024

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damn fair to say they're pissed off

All is not perfect in the new EU gas situation.

Geopolitics lurks behind Europe’s gas storage success https://t.co/umqYn1XbmW via @ft

— Franklin DEHOUSSE (@FrDe2059) April 9, 2024

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Gas dependency has not proved to be the weapon Putin envisaged during the mid-2010s when he sought to control central and southern Europe by reconfiguring transit from the second Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea to TurkStream under the Black Sea. For Russia, Europe's resilience has been a geopolitical disaster since, unlike with oil, Gazprom cannot replace European customers with Asian ones. The west Siberian fields are not set up to deliver liquefied natural gas exports and only China has a pipeline in the region.

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Yet Europe's large-scale shift to LNG in a world where Asian countries wish to use more gas has necessarily opened a new round in this near-decade-old competition. The US retains huge advantages. In 2023, it was the world's biggest LNG exporter with 80 per cent of the additional supply on the market last year coming from its ports. Nonetheless, Russian LNG imports to the EU rose by 38 per cent between 2021 and 2023, replacing about 10 per cent of the lost Siberian supply with gas from the Arctic.

Europe is still exposed to Russian ambition. The Biden administration has paused licenses for new LNG export projects. This may not last: the restriction is under legal challenge in Louisiana from 16 states, and this month has become entangled in the impasse in the House of Representatives on a vote on military aid to Ukraine. But the conflicts around American LNG reflect the fact that the ability of US energy companies to export is always subject to contested domestic politics.

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docb said:

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Time to hit more Russian oil refineries. A LNG export terminal would be nice too. War is hell Mr. Putin.

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Yeah, it is pretty obvious what Russia's goal is and where they can be most easily hurt. Hammer their LNG export facilities and shame the french and others into ceasing purchases of Russian gas and they can hurt Vlad. Getting Biden to let the US LNG projects continue would give Europe a much easier time believing that non-Russian supplies will be sufficiently reliable.

PJYoung said:

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All is not perfect in the new EU gas situation.

Geopolitics lurks behind Europe’s gas storage success https://t.co/umqYn1XbmW via @ft

— Franklin DEHOUSSE (@FrDe2059) April 9, 2024

Quote:

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Gas dependency has not proved to be the weapon Putin envisaged during the mid-2010s when he sought to control central and southern Europe by reconfiguring transit from the second Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea to TurkStream under the Black Sea. For Russia, Europe's resilience has been a geopolitical disaster since, unlike with oil, Gazprom cannot replace European customers with Asian ones. The west Siberian fields are not set up to deliver liquefied natural gas exports and only China has a pipeline in the region.

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Yet Europe's large-scale shift to LNG in a world where Asian countries wish to use more gas has necessarily opened a new round in this near-decade-old competition. The US retains huge advantages. In 2023, it was the world's biggest LNG exporter with 80 per cent of the additional supply on the market last year coming from its ports. Nonetheless, Russian LNG imports to the EU rose by 38 per cent between 2021 and 2023, replacing about 10 per cent of the lost Siberian supply with gas from the Arctic.

Europe is still exposed to Russian ambition. The Biden administration has paused licenses for new LNG export projects. This may not last: the restriction is under legal challenge in Louisiana from 16 states, and this month has become entangled in the impasse in the House of Representatives on a vote on military aid to Ukraine. But the conflicts around American LNG reflect the fact that the ability of US energy companies to export is always subject to contested domestic politics.

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Agree. There are 14 major LNG export projects approved by the USG and awaiting construction, with two others already in construction. By all reports, those are more projects than the industry can likely finance and complete for at least a decade. So, the Biden pause on even more approvals has zero impact on near to mid-term LNG export capacity or on current US global LNG dominance. LNG

Ukraine's energy infrastructure takes a major hit, plus other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.

This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground. If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk Oblast as part of an expected summer offensive. Russian forces will still have to cross the… https://t.co/ihiYvhhy2K pic.twitter.com/zuxXca9pjJ

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 13, 2024

Europe, especially France is funding Russia through increased LNG sales.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/politico-france-imports-growing-levels-130116694.html

Can Ukraine put a strategy together to cut the money supply to Russia? How does Ukraine stop the Russian LNG exports? Do they take them out at the customer delivery site, special forces bombing France ports or pipelines? Do they bomb the LNG export terminals.?

If the Ukes want to win they must stop the flow of money. Europe is complicit in the war against Ukraine. When do the take it abroad?

I'm no military strategist but it seems like committing acts of war against countries that have helped them is probably the wrong was for the Ukrainians to go.

How is funding the enemy helping?

Europe already planning for what happens if Ukraine loses. It's ugly.

NONSTOP

74OA said:

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Europe already planning for what happens if Ukraine loses. It's ugly.

NONSTOP

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Europe fumbled the ball when Russia was down 30 pts going into the 4th. What they are JUST starting to grasp is that Russia is cooking at essentially a full war time economy and has been for many months now. Mix that with the fact that a tyrannical government can already pivot much faster than a democratic one and I can't help but feel that the crucial time window of smacking the Russians down for at least a generation has already been squandered.

I said a long time ago that I feared a resurgent Russian empire as being the worst case for this war and damn me if it isn't actually in the realm of feasibility now if things keep going awry on the political front.

Lots of horrible things are said about Putin, many of them by me, but I will also always nod in sullen anger when he said the west was weak. Been thinking that myself for well over a decade now. We, and especially the US, simply have no actual identity on global foreign policy. Geopolitics is simply the latest toy/weapon of the reigning administration largely to be used against the opposite party and nothing else.

That all being said, I still don't think the paper matches reality either. But it is equalizing to at least some degree on the macro scale though. It has to be. For example, the mocked Russian AF is now being used effectively, or at least effectively enough to make a battlefield difference, for once. Took them FAR longer to adopt there than a normal nation would and largely because lack of precision long range AA, but they still got there eventually. If the Iraqis can learn and adopt given enough time, so can the Russians. What I meant by that time window earlier.

IF the Russians ever actually become that true continental threat, the bitter irony will be it was because they had the time to do so, time the west wasted by dribbling in aid piece by piece because we didn't want to wake up said continental threat. How long did it take us to send in Bradley's for example? I still don't think it's doom and gloom quite yet but there is no denying that the military aid gridlocks across the west has destroyed any real chance of this war having a favorable outcome in a short time frame. If Ukraine does end up falling in the end, the West owns that failure collectively.

I don't think it's collectively. Europe is funding Russia. We are not. Stop sending Russia money and the war can't go on.

........and what's galling is, despite Europe's fumbling, the US could still effectively blunt any Russian resurgence by continuing to fund Ukraine's resistance for a relative pittance in dollars and at zero cost in US blood. Instead, we'll stand on the sidelines and far increase the likelihood of a wider, more expensive and bloodier conflict someday.

Build It said:

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I don't think it's collectively. Europe is funding Russia. We are not. Stop sending Russia money and the war can't go on.

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The leaks in European sanctions are a fraction of what Russia is spending on Putin's war. In the meantime, Europe has spent far more than the US in support of Ukraine. This is a collective problem for the West and requires a collective effort to resolve it or we will collectively suffer for Russian success.

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Europe already planning for what happens if Ukraine loses. It's ugly.

NONSTOP

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Europe fumbled the ball when Russia was down 30 pts going into the 4th. What they are JUST starting to grasp is that Russia is cooking at essentially a full war time economy and has been for many months now. Mix that with the fact that a tyrannical government can already pivot much faster than a democratic one and I can't help but feel that the crucial time window of smacking the Russians down for at least a generation has already been squandered.

I said a long time ago that I feared a resurgent Russian empire as being the worst case for this war and damn me if it isn't actually in the realm of feasibility now if things keep going awry on the political front.

Lots of horrible things are said about Putin, many of them by me, but I will also always nod in sullen anger when he said the west was weak. Been thinking that myself for well over a decade now. We, and especially the US, simply have no actual identity on global foreign policy. Geopolitics is simply the latest toy/weapon of the reigning administration largely to be used against the opposite party and nothing else.

That all being said, I still don't think the paper matches reality either. But it is equalizing to at least some degree on the macro scale though. It has to be. For example, the mocked Russian AF is now being used effectively, or at least effectively enough to make a battlefield difference, for once. Took them FAR longer to adopt there than a normal nation would and largely because lack of precision long range AA, but they still got there eventually. If the Iraqis can learn and adopt given enough time, so can the Russians. What I meant by that time window earlier.

IF the Russians ever actually become that true continental threat, the bitter irony will be it was because they had the time to do so, time the west wasted by dribbling in aid piece by piece because we didn't want to wake up said continental threat. How long did it take us to send in Bradley's for example? I still don't think it's doom and gloom quite yet but there is no denying that the military aid gridlocks across the west has destroyed any real chance of this war having a favorable outcome in a short time frame. If Ukraine does end up falling in the end, the West owns that failure collectively.

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Russia is too demographically weak to create the Russian empire again. The question we have to ask ourselves is do we let Russia, Iran, and China team up while we pretend that it doesn't effect us. Or do we shut their aspirations down by taking the real threat seriously.

So they are only partially funding the war. Even if I believe it's only 8 percent (crude only). Add in the LNG and it's even more. So stop that first.

Major fire, emergency services involved after a successful missile strike in Luhansk by Ukrainian defence forces. pic.twitter.com/Qy1NPHLGgs

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 13, 2024

Луганськ вітається.
З 10 річницею початку АТО, підари! pic.twitter.com/Ab13RwcvPC

— Брянські бавовни (@BavovnaB) April 13, 2024

💥👀 Consequences of today's "arrival" on the ramp equipped on the territory of the Luhansk Machine-Building Plant. pic.twitter.com/lr5ShM71yp

— MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) April 13, 2024

Ukraine's new loitering drone to take out air defenses.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=6bf0e7d07360

shiftyandquick said:

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Ukraine's new loitering drone to take out air defenses.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=6bf0e7d07360

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Interesting. Move-Countermove.

shiftyandquick said:

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Ukraine's new loitering drone to take out air defenses.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=6bf0e7d07360

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They would need 1000s of these from us, they are cheap I would assume we are about to give them many many many more of them.. ?

Interesting tactics;

Video of a Russian assault group from the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade's Zarya battalion that uses motorcycles in their assaults on the Siversk front. The bikes allow them to reach trenches faster and they are harder to spot. Their assaults are done in coordination with… pic.twitter.com/d7KXzkc0Wf

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 15, 2024

Regarding artillery, they most certainly are not starving for supply with their own production bolstered by Iran, North Korea, China, and possibly others.