Interesting look at one aspect of Ukrainian battlefield innovation: Long-range improvised drones striking deep into Russia.
A-22
A-22
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 9 hrs ago by 74OA
You're repeating McNamara's mistakes of measuring progress by counting enemy losses. The Russian Air Force is absolutely wrecking the Ukrainian front lines in ways they couldn't have done 2 years ago.
The Ukes with a mountain of anti-tank weapons and a couple kids using toy drones relaying target info by cellphone to police dispatchers were able to decimate the Russian's drive towards Kyiv in May of 2022.
With vastly superior NATO hardware in 2023 the Ukes failed to break through a single Russian defensive line. It's unimaginable to even contemplate the Russians capable of a collapse like what occurred in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022.
The fact is the Russians have abandoned their previous Battalion Tactical Group based unit structure and rebuilt their army with an emphasis on combined arms. They are fielding artillery, fixed wing aircraft, rotorcraft, and drones in joint operations they were too incompetent to employ effectively two years ago.
Keep counting tank losses and laughing at the Uke memes and tic tok reels. I suspect NATO would rather face the Russia of 2022 than the one operating in Ukraine today.
In the summer of 2022 Biden held back the intermediate range weapon systems the Ukes needed and squandered the opportunity to help the Ukes defeat Russia on the cheap. Today I don't think there is any arms package large enough that we could deliver to Ukraine that would turn the tide of this war and restore the 1991 borders.
The Ukes with a mountain of anti-tank weapons and a couple kids using toy drones relaying target info by cellphone to police dispatchers were able to decimate the Russian's drive towards Kyiv in May of 2022.
With vastly superior NATO hardware in 2023 the Ukes failed to break through a single Russian defensive line. It's unimaginable to even contemplate the Russians capable of a collapse like what occurred in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022.
The fact is the Russians have abandoned their previous Battalion Tactical Group based unit structure and rebuilt their army with an emphasis on combined arms. They are fielding artillery, fixed wing aircraft, rotorcraft, and drones in joint operations they were too incompetent to employ effectively two years ago.
Keep counting tank losses and laughing at the Uke memes and tic tok reels. I suspect NATO would rather face the Russia of 2022 than the one operating in Ukraine today.
In the summer of 2022 Biden held back the intermediate range weapon systems the Ukes needed and squandered the opportunity to help the Ukes defeat Russia on the cheap. Today I don't think there is any arms package large enough that we could deliver to Ukraine that would turn the tide of this war and restore the 1991 borders.
Infrastructure in Russia is collapsing while Putin spends trillions of rubles killing innocent Ukrainians
— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) April 8, 2024
Russian Media: An overpass bridge collapsed onto the railroad tracks in #Vyazma, Russia.
"The governor of the Smolensk region took personal control of the situation with… pic.twitter.com/GJRgslYqoT
In defense of most casual analysts, it is difficult to assess the war since Ukrainian loses are virtually state secrets, while Russian loses are relatively known (with a margin of error). People will forget the most assured loses the Ukrainian military is facing.
That being said, I don't think McNamara's mistake applies here since both forces are fighting in a conventional way and relying on high investment weapon systems.
The Russian military is unequivocally weaker today in terms of experience and capabilities today than it was prior to the invasion. They may have made tactical and doctrinal changes to perform better, but they've suffered significant losses that would take the American military 6-12 years to recover from ourselves.
What I think is really occurring is that the Ukrainian's were always weak with a small to non-existent DIB, and with NATO aid they were able punch way up. The aid is gone, and now Ukraine is literally scrambling for basic munitions to fight against a numerically larger and better equipped force. Russia can dig an armor brigade out of mothballs to send to the front - Ukraine has to rely on the kindness of strangers to replenish.
I would caution everyone against assuming Russia is stronger than it was or back to pre-invasion levels - it's not. Russia can willingly attrit it's near peer capabilities into the ground subduing Ukraine because it knows it faces no near peer attack to defend against.
The Russian military at this point would get demolished by that of one of NATO's larger members.
That being said, I don't think McNamara's mistake applies here since both forces are fighting in a conventional way and relying on high investment weapon systems.
The Russian military is unequivocally weaker today in terms of experience and capabilities today than it was prior to the invasion. They may have made tactical and doctrinal changes to perform better, but they've suffered significant losses that would take the American military 6-12 years to recover from ourselves.
What I think is really occurring is that the Ukrainian's were always weak with a small to non-existent DIB, and with NATO aid they were able punch way up. The aid is gone, and now Ukraine is literally scrambling for basic munitions to fight against a numerically larger and better equipped force. Russia can dig an armor brigade out of mothballs to send to the front - Ukraine has to rely on the kindness of strangers to replenish.
I would caution everyone against assuming Russia is stronger than it was or back to pre-invasion levels - it's not. Russia can willingly attrit it's near peer capabilities into the ground subduing Ukraine because it knows it faces no near peer attack to defend against.
The Russian military at this point would get demolished by that of one of NATO's larger members.
My $0.02:
Ukraine is not getting back lost territory.
Outside of Ukraine and Russia, all other "players" want a stalemate, POS forced agreement and these new borders.
In 5-10 years, Putin will reload and attack again.
There is no amount of input, material nor $$$ that will push Putin back or to FULL STOP.
OR
Ukraine keeps fighting as is and this "special operation" lasts for another 10 years.
Ukraine is not getting back lost territory.
Outside of Ukraine and Russia, all other "players" want a stalemate, POS forced agreement and these new borders.
In 5-10 years, Putin will reload and attack again.
There is no amount of input, material nor $$$ that will push Putin back or to FULL STOP.
OR
Ukraine keeps fighting as is and this "special operation" lasts for another 10 years.
SouthTex99 said:
Ukraine has long wanted the US to come to its direct defense as Russia launches thousands of drones and missiles at its cities. And now they've seen Israel receive exactly that support and how effective it is. And defended against much of the exact same weapons.
Got to be frustrating.
I agree with you but every iranian munition destroyed by allied defense or as targeted is one less munition that can be exported to russia for use on Ukraine.
The Iranians have helped the Russians set up Shahed factories inside of Russia. The Ukrainians tried to take out one of those factories with a drone of their own a few weeks ago and barely missed.
The only thing that stops the bolded above is to let Ukraine join NATO after an agreement is in place. Of course he'll take another bite at the apple if the apple is JUST Ukraine. He will NOT take that bite if the apple is ALSO NATO.MaroonStain said:
My $0.02:
Ukraine is not getting back lost territory.
Outside of Ukraine and Russia, all other "players" want a stalemate, POS forced agreement and these new borders.
In 5-10 years, Putin will reload and attack again.
There is no amount of input, material nor $$$ that will push Putin back or to FULL STOP.
OR
Ukraine keeps fighting as is and this "special operation" lasts for another 10 years.
I agree that, unless something BIG changes, the lines will continue to stagnate like the pic below:
If we can get them some new materiel that they can use to punch the Russians really hard in the face for a few months, maybe that will help facilitate an agreement where Ukraine cedes that territory so that the joining of NATO can occur.
Ukraine should be given what they need to achieve objectives instead of this nonsense slow-walking. I don't agree that Russia cannot be beaten except by a self-fulfilled prophecy.MaroonStain said:
My $0.02:
Ukraine is not getting back lost territory.
Outside of Ukraine and Russia, all other "players" want a stalemate, POS forced agreement and these new borders.
In 5-10 years, Putin will reload and attack again.
There is no amount of input, material nor $$$ that will push Putin back or to FULL STOP.
OR
Ukraine keeps fighting as is and this "special operation" lasts for another 10 years.
People that point to Ukraine's current struggles should ask themselves why Ukraine is struggling. It is due to a lack of military aid. The moment that started to dry up was when the real woes began to happen.
Meanwhile, Russia gets help from Iran, NK, and China at the very least.
Yep, the defeatist narrative Russia has been pushing throughout western social media has taken hold. Putin has long understood that undermining support for Ukraine is key to winning on the battlefield. It appears he is right as we have little strategic foresight and even less backbone. When some here look for the reason for US decline, they have only to look in the mirror.Waffledynamics said:Ukraine should be given what they need to achieve objectives instead of this nonsense slow-walking. I don't agree that Russia cannot be beaten except by a self-fulfilled prophecy.MaroonStain said:
My $0.02:
Ukraine is not getting back lost territory.
Outside of Ukraine and Russia, all other "players" want a stalemate, POS forced agreement and these new borders.
In 5-10 years, Putin will reload and attack again.
There is no amount of input, material nor $$$ that will push Putin back or to FULL STOP.
OR
Ukraine keeps fighting as is and this "special operation" lasts for another 10 years.
People that point to Ukraine's current struggles should ask themselves why Ukraine is struggling. It is due to a lack of military aid. The moment that started to dry up was when the real woes began to happen.
Russia is taking massive losses it cannot sustain at this rate. Its artillery is being fired until it breaks down and its armor is taking losses that can't be replaced except by several years of production. It has maybe 1-2 years worth of battlefield mobility left before it is reduced to mostly human wave type attacks, and it is losing artillery much faster than it can be replaced.
Russia has manpower it can keep pushing in, and is producing plenty of drones, but that's about all it has going. It can keep pushing a substantial portion of its economy into the war but not without significant long term costs to its own economic infrastructure. Russia, even with its great wealth of raw materials to sell, doesn't have the economic power to sustain this level of warfare and its own infrastructure and economic needs.
Russia is making a somewhat desperate surge of constant high loss small unit attacks to make rolling gains while it still has sufficient armored vehicles to do so because that prevents Ukraine from establishing deep static defense in depth with dense minefields and works that Russia could not penetrate. This will eventually become infantry attacking on foot under fire, and stall.
Russia has manpower it can keep pushing in, and is producing plenty of drones, but that's about all it has going. It can keep pushing a substantial portion of its economy into the war but not without significant long term costs to its own economic infrastructure. Russia, even with its great wealth of raw materials to sell, doesn't have the economic power to sustain this level of warfare and its own infrastructure and economic needs.
Russia is making a somewhat desperate surge of constant high loss small unit attacks to make rolling gains while it still has sufficient armored vehicles to do so because that prevents Ukraine from establishing deep static defense in depth with dense minefields and works that Russia could not penetrate. This will eventually become infantry attacking on foot under fire, and stall.
[A thread exists for this discussion. Use that thread or face time off. -Staff]
Too much trolling going on.
In my opinion, I wish Staff would start handing out bans. Y'all have been asked multiple times to stop derailing and trolling. There is a "from another perspective" thread and numerous other threads where you can spout the same stuff without cluttering up this one. It's extremely old at this point.
This isn't for partisan political nonsense. Your whining about inflation caused by a rounding error in the military budget is clearly trolling after it's been pointed out a thousand times. None of you are coming in here to discuss the conflict in any good faith except maybe nortex sometimes.
In my opinion, I wish Staff would start handing out bans. Y'all have been asked multiple times to stop derailing and trolling. There is a "from another perspective" thread and numerous other threads where you can spout the same stuff without cluttering up this one. It's extremely old at this point.
This isn't for partisan political nonsense. Your whining about inflation caused by a rounding error in the military budget is clearly trolling after it's been pointed out a thousand times. None of you are coming in here to discuss the conflict in any good faith except maybe nortex sometimes.
Waffledynamics said:
Too much trolling going on.
In my opinion, I wish Staff would start handing out bans. Y'all have been asked multiple times to stop derailing and trolling. There is a "from another perspective" thread and numerous other threads where you can spout the same stuff without cluttering up this one. It's extremely old at this point.
This isn't for partisan political nonsense. Your whining about inflation caused by a rounding error in the military budget is clearly trolling after it's been pointed out a thousand times. None of you are coming in here to discuss the conflict in any good faith except maybe nortex sometimes.
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
[Waffledynamics is correct. There is another thread to discuss the politics of the war domestically and internationally. Please use that thread to discuss those topics or face time off. This is a thread discussing the tactical and strategic plans and outcomes of those plans as they unfold in the theatre of war. The politics impact on the military outcomes can be discussed tangentially, but should not be central to your posts and used to derail this thread into a discussion of the geopolitics of the war. Again, there is a thread for that. -Staff]
[A thread exists for that discussion. Use that thread or face time off. -Staff]
OMG… look at this Russian tank that appeared on the battle field in Ukraine… talk about a Cope Cage.. they are calling it the turtle tank. The idea is that small drones dropping small ordnance can't take it out. Technology moving fast
https://www.twz.com/land/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely
I don't see this one being a new long term design… lol
https://www.twz.com/land/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely
I don't see this one being a new long term design… lol
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More of a "cope canopy".
The one thing about the Ukraine military operates is really disjointed and mostly independent from other units. There is no logistical capability from the military to supply items to all of the different groups so they are forced to fend for themselves for food, medical supplies and many other basic items to support their troops on the war front.
Ukraine is losing the ability to project power and will have to concede territory to Russia because they can't replace the military personnel at the rate they are being killed. So their ranks are thinning and i read reports the UKES have resorted to the use of prisoners to fight.
Ukraine must also keep its forces somewhat spread out to avoid creating an inviting tactical nuke strike target if the UKES decided to mass some of its forces for a hard strike against Russia. Again making it difficult to project forces sufficiently to be-able to push Russia out of Ukraine.
Ukraine does have enough technology to bleed and kill Russians, but they do not have the capability to bomb the oblivion out of the Russians and drive them out.
It was certainly a lost opportunity by the US to give Ukraine the military hardware that was stock piled in Afghanistan. That brilliant move by Austin/Milley/McKenzie will continue to have repercussions beyond the Ukrainian conflict.
NATO & the US can keep giving batches of weapons, ammunition, tanks & planes but if there is no one to operate and shoot them….it won't matter or change the outcome of ceding territory to Russia.
The ONLY chance that Ukraine has is NATO to roll into Ukraine and mass troops across the battle front, to increase firepower, establish C&C in order to better consolidate the overall force in Ukraine and to regain air domination with the ability to hurt Russia deep into their territory. Obviously this has a small chance of occurring, but nonetheless it is one hope Ukraine has.
Ukraine is losing the ability to project power and will have to concede territory to Russia because they can't replace the military personnel at the rate they are being killed. So their ranks are thinning and i read reports the UKES have resorted to the use of prisoners to fight.
Ukraine must also keep its forces somewhat spread out to avoid creating an inviting tactical nuke strike target if the UKES decided to mass some of its forces for a hard strike against Russia. Again making it difficult to project forces sufficiently to be-able to push Russia out of Ukraine.
Ukraine does have enough technology to bleed and kill Russians, but they do not have the capability to bomb the oblivion out of the Russians and drive them out.
It was certainly a lost opportunity by the US to give Ukraine the military hardware that was stock piled in Afghanistan. That brilliant move by Austin/Milley/McKenzie will continue to have repercussions beyond the Ukrainian conflict.
NATO & the US can keep giving batches of weapons, ammunition, tanks & planes but if there is no one to operate and shoot them….it won't matter or change the outcome of ceding territory to Russia.
The ONLY chance that Ukraine has is NATO to roll into Ukraine and mass troops across the battle front, to increase firepower, establish C&C in order to better consolidate the overall force in Ukraine and to regain air domination with the ability to hurt Russia deep into their territory. Obviously this has a small chance of occurring, but nonetheless it is one hope Ukraine has.
I think they forgot to remove the assembly tabs after folding...
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I think they basically used that as a mine-clearing vehicle for the stuff behind it (the shrouding might confuse AI/drones).
These 'remove before firing' containers always crack me up:
These 'remove before firing' containers always crack me up:
Out of the 800,000 Czech-located artillery shells, Czechia has so far only contracted 180,000 — the exact sum of Germany's commitment to the initiative (€576 million), which might be just a coincidence. https://t.co/QpJC17UW6F
— German Aid to Ukraine 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦 (@deaidua) April 15, 2024
[Other thread. -Staff]
- It demonstrates that the USA fulfills it's defense agreements, even if it is difficult and/or expensive
- Without actually putting US blood on the line, it demonstrates the massive superiority of US/Western arms and training over the systems and training that are pretty much the same as foundations in Russia, China and Iran
- In addition to the lessons being demonstrated in Ukraine (which apparently Iran ignored...or maybe it didn't depending on ones POV of what Iran hoped to accomplish attacking Israel), Iran got it's own personal lesson a few days ago and then decided that uh, maybe they'd better call it all good
- It makes countries like Russia, China and Iran pause and think about what they will be getting themselves into if they force the US's hand
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
- Without actually putting US blood on the line, it demonstrates the massive superiority of US/Western arms and training over the systems and training that are pretty much the same as foundations in Russia, China and Iran
- In addition to the lessons being demonstrated in Ukraine (which apparently Iran ignored...or maybe it didn't depending on ones POV of what Iran hoped to accomplish attacking Israel), Iran got it's own personal lesson a few days ago and then decided that uh, maybe they'd better call it all good
- It makes countries like Russia, China and Iran pause and think about what they will be getting themselves into if they force the US's hand
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Note that the article is from the 8th; Reddit was showing videos of it already disabled last week.fullback44 said:
OMG… look at this Russian tank that appeared on the battle field in Ukraine… talk about a Cope Cage.. they are calling it the turtle tank. The idea is that small drones dropping small ordnance can't take it out. Technology moving fast
https://www.twz.com/land/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely
I don't see this one being a new long term design… lol
Yeah I figured it would last very long, its pretty much a giant target of metal that looks like a turtle moving aroundNaveronski said:Note that the article is from the 8th; Reddit was showing videos of it already disabled last week.fullback44 said:
OMG… look at this Russian tank that appeared on the battle field in Ukraine… talk about a Cope Cage.. they are calling it the turtle tank. The idea is that small drones dropping small ordnance can't take it out. Technology moving fast
https://www.twz.com/land/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely
I don't see this one being a new long term design… lol
Three seen so far, latest with EW gear.Naveronski said:Note that the article is from the 8th; Reddit was showing videos of it already disabled last week.fullback44 said:
OMG… look at this Russian tank that appeared on the battle field in Ukraine… talk about a Cope Cage.. they are calling it the turtle tank. The idea is that small drones dropping small ordnance can't take it out. Technology moving fast
https://www.twz.com/land/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely
I don't see this one being a new long term design… lol
TURTLES
NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8) pic.twitter.com/C6VGjcWrdF
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 16, 2024
More on the "turtle tank"
New Russian ‘Turtle Tank’ Emerges On The Battlefield, Features Electronic Warfare System
— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) April 16, 2024
Russia’s monstrous turtle tank was not a one-off, with the third one now identified and it carries an electronic warfare system.
Story: https://t.co/BEt9Oh6Nn2
Czechs getting it done while we dither. "The Czech government has already secured 500,000 shells, Fiala told the Hudson Institute on Tuesday, but "There is no reason why we cannot deliver 1 million more in the next 12 months."
AMMO
AMMO
That faraday/stealth cage plus latest jamming system will protect it from common FPV drones. As long as they keep it away from a conventional ATGM or a mine or drone spotted artillery, it may survive a while. It's better than what they were achieving before.
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