***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,674,684 Views | 47954 Replies | Last: 8 min ago by Rossticus
74OA
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MaroonStain said:

nortex97 said:



Sustainment challenges.


Eight (8) US taxpayers per soldier since we are giving Ukraine $1Billion per month to fund their government
Most all of our aid money is spent here in the US. Get it right.
74OA
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A second Abrams lost, so the 31 are definitely being employed. Lots of other frontline notes, too.

Today's SITREP.
Ulysses90
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AgLA06 said:

That's how war works.

It doesn't matter what it costs if your attacked unprovoked. Funny you didn't comment on Russia blowing all their reserves.
There is nothing as expensive as a second-best military.
Eliminatus
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Russian sourced videos are out of another Black Sea drone attack. Can't figure out how to embed them here. I'm sure it'll hit Twitter soon. Russian telegram feeds also reporting a patrol ship was hit and probably sunk. The Sergei Korotov. One of the most modern ships Russia has in that fleet.

These vessels are Kaliber missile capable and have been part of the ongoing long ranges attack against Ukraine.

Anyone else have "Russian fleet being hunted to extinction by RC kamikaze boats" on their bingo card at the start of the invasion? Yeah, me neither.


ETA: Found this on Twitter. A drone hits or was shot extremely close to the ship as another one glides in from the right. You can see it in the reflected light from shore for a moment as it heads to the target. Around 9 seconds in. Looks so damn sinister honestly.




Further video below the Ukes released. Same tactics as before it looks like. Send a swarm and attack sequentially. "Big explosion" is the chatter I first saw and looks like that was spot on. Several catastrophic hits and Uke MoD has confirmed a sinking and with this video, I tend to to believe it.

Eliminatus
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MouthBQ98 said:

They are losing a reinforced battalion A DAY in men and equipment. No military can sustain that today and continue to function effectively for very long.

Their capabilities will continue to degrade as they continue to lose and body of trained and experienced veterans to wasteful attrition, though I am sure they do concentrate some of those on special units that are effective.
No functional and effective military can sustain that but with a large chunk of the Adiivka assault forces, "functional" is a blurry line. One of the more fascinating side stories to this whole thing for me is to watch the degradation of the Russian ground force capabilities. For many of their established units It's been BTGs >>> modified BTGs >>> Assault doctrine groups >>> Storm "Z" >>> a literal mob of unwashed peasants. Granted, this is not every unit in the Russians TOE, with several of their more historically elite units maintaining a semblance of order and proficiency. But a significant portion of their ground units now follow that chain above.

Several Russian POWs claim that turnaround from signing the paper to actively fighting in Adiivka was less than 2 months. At best, that leaves less than a month of any sort of training and I would be surprised if it were even that much. Let's be blunt here. Russia has a plethora of ignorant lower class men. The sort that make up these attack groups and where most of their losses are coming from. Russia as a nation, i.e. Putin, can afford to lose huge swathes of them and feel nothing, at least for the near term. (Generational demographic damage notwithstanding). They also have honed in this type of attritional warfare for centuries. It was their main doctrine in WW2 for example once they broke out from Stalingrad. Build up a huge force and then attack, attack, attack until it ran out of soldiers/supplies and then take an operational pause to build up another force. Rinse and repeat all the way to Berlin. It's essentially a national trait at this point. Smash your guys into a wall until it breaks. Mix all of this with one of the more effective propaganda arms this world has seen and it culminates in an "Us vs the world" mentality and fueled by a strong nationalist spirit by much of their people. Especially the older generations, the ones making the decisions.

All this to say, their threshold for breaking is much higher than a first world western nations and expectations should have already been tempered to reflect that by now. Especially when they are the ones effectively controlling the pace of it. It sucks to see such a waste of life but Russia wants this. Simple as that. And it is beyond clear that in order to push them out of Ukraine, you are going to have to kill enough of them to make even the Russians blink. They are not going to give up otherwise. That is the harsh reality with 2+ years of proof.



JFABNRGR
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Love the music

2wealfth Man
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Eliminatus said:

MouthBQ98 said:

They are losing a reinforced battalion A DAY in men and equipment. No military can sustain that today and continue to function effectively for very long.

Their capabilities will continue to degrade as they continue to lose and body of trained and experienced veterans to wasteful attrition, though I am sure they do concentrate some of those on special units that are effective.
No functional and effective military can sustain that but with a large chunk of the Adiivka assault forces, "functional" is a blurry line. One of the more fascinating side stories to this whole thing for me is to watch the degradation of the Russian ground force capabilities. For many of their established units It's been BTGs >>> modified BTGs >>> Assault doctrine groups >>> Storm "Z" >>> a literal mob of unwashed peasants. Granted, this is not every unit in the Russians TOE, with several of their more historically elite units maintaining a semblance of order and proficiency. But a significant portion of their ground units now follow that chain above.

Several Russian POWs claim that turnaround from signing the paper to actively fighting in Adiivka was less than 2 months. At best, that leaves less than a month of any sort of training and I would be surprised if it were even that much. Let's be blunt here. Russia has a plethora of ignorant lower class men. The sort that make up these attack groups and where most of their losses are coming from. Russia as a nation, i.e. Putin, can afford to lose huge swathes of them and feel nothing, at least for the near term. (Generational demographic damage notwithstanding). They also have honed in this type of attritional warfare for centuries. It was their main doctrine in WW2 for example once they broke out from Stalingrad. Build up a huge force and then attack, attack, attack until it ran out of soldiers/supplies and then take an operational pause to build up another force. Rinse and repeat all the way to Berlin. It's essentially a national trait at this point. Smash your guys into a wall until it breaks. Mix all of this with one of the more effective propaganda arms this world has seen and it culminates in an "Us vs the world" mentality and fueled by a strong nationalist spirit by much of their people. Especially the older generations, the ones making the decisions.

All this to say, their threshold for breaking is much higher than a first world western nations and expectations should have already been tempered to reflect that by now. Especially when they are the ones effectively controlling the pace of it. It sucks to see such a waste of life but Russia wants this. Simple as that. And it is beyond clear that in order to push them out of Ukraine, you are going to have to kill enough of them to make even the Russians blink. They are not going to give up otherwise. That is the harsh reality with 2+ years of proof.




don't the cluster bombs (if deployed in sufficient numbers) and drones turn the meat wave approach on its heels
Teslag
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Basically yes. The 1943'esque Russian meat grinder approach was always absurd, but with cluster munitiosn and modern ranged weapons it's complete folly.

But the Russian Army was built for it and they lack the equipment and logistics to do anything else.
txags92
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Their threshold for breaking may be higher than anybody else in the world, but that doesn't mean they are not doing incredible damage to the economic engine of their country via the demographic nightmare that is being caused. That damage will weaken then demonstrably in the coming decades.
2wealfth Man
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If you really step back and look at it on a macro-level; there is no way Putin / Russia will ever "win". They can meat wave their way across Ukraine but will never be able to fully occupy or securely control that territory outside of creating a human carnage which hasn't been seen since WW2. Think of rape and plunder and dead bodies on a battlefield on a scale not heretofore seen. There is no "end point" here outside of the extinction of Ukraine; the time for installing puppet governments and passively controlling the populace has passed.
Eliminatus
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txags92 said:

Their threshold for breaking may be higher than anybody else in the world, but that doesn't mean they are not doing incredible damage to the economic engine of their country via the demographic nightmare that is being caused. That damage will weaken then demonstrably in the coming decades.
Oh, I fully agree. Which is why I made sure to qualify my earlier statement with an "In the near term". They can weather these losses for their right here and right now immediate goals. Generationally speaking though the Russians steepened their already dying culture and identity to a point I doubt they will ever be able to recover. Honestly, if I were China, I would just wait a few years and attack Russia. Just makes sense to my western mind!
Eliminatus
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2wealfth Man said:


don't the cluster bombs (if deployed in sufficient numbers) and drones turn the meat wave approach on its heels
They do, but you said it best. If they have the quantity in those areas in stock. Which is what the Ukes have been struggling with and a huge part of why Adiivka feel when it did. They killed thousands and thousands....until the guns went silent and the Russians had thousands more left.
Teslag
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That's exactly why any talk of the US and the west simply stopping funding and this war will just end peacefully is a pipe dream. The Ukrainians wont stop fighting just because we stop funding them. Hundreds of thousands will keep fighting. And even if Russia took over large areas west of where the lines are now, those areas would continue on and on with rebellion and violence. They can pull that **** in Crimea and ethnic Russian areas in the east. It's far more difficult in areas where Ukrainians really really want to be Ukrainians.
74OA
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More videos of the sinking of yet another Russian missile boat.

SUNK

74OA
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Teslag said:

That's exactly why any talk of the US and the west simply stopping funding and this war will just end peacefully is a pipe dream. The Ukrainians wont stop fighting just because we stop funding them. Hundreds of thousands will keep fighting. And even if Russia took over large areas west of where the lines are now, those areas would continue on and on with rebellion and violence. They can pull that **** in Crimea and ethnic Russian areas in the east. It's far more difficult in areas where Ukrainians really really want to be Ukrainians.
Beyond that, fighting won't cease because Putin is never going to stop until all Ukraine is a vassal state of Russia.

It's as important to understand his motivation to conquer as it is to appreciate Ukraine's determination to resist.

Excellent read: CZAR
AgLA06
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JFABNRGR
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They need to do that graphic with ships and aircraft.

Video of what appears to be first total destruction of HIMARS unit targeted by Isklandr.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7abfh/first_visually_confirmed_destruction_of_himars/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Ulysses90
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Hindsight is 20/20. Moving is a PitA but without enough of it between the shoot & communicate, the counter battery fires will find you. Once a drone gets eyes-on, perhaps no amount of movement will be enough.
JFABNRGR
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Footage from onboard the Tsezar Kunikov. Sadly without sound.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7ybmi/footage_from_aboard_the_tsezar_kunikov_landing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Bird Poo
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JFABNRGR said:

Footage from onboard the Tsezar Kunikov. Sadly without sound.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7ybmi/footage_from_aboard_the_tsezar_kunikov_landing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
That is CRAZY

Does Russia not have OpsSpec? Was this guy live-streaming? I'm also surprised they were using regular ammo rounds instead of some sort of depth charger/grenade. Looked like 75% of their rounds were skipping off the top of the water and not penetrating the surface.
MouthBQ98
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There are several types of drone's the Ukrainians can deploy. The manned machine guns can work against the surface drones but they are hard to see at night. Some are semi submersible and harder to hit. At those angles, any fast moving projectile will skip off the surface, and and a slower projectile will be very hard to lead and hit the target. The Ukrainians were apparently using one or more drones to draw fire while then attacking from a different direction with others.

The Russians needed some heavy machine guns and a good spot light to have a chance.
JFABNRGR
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Bird Poo said:

JFABNRGR said:

Footage from onboard the Tsezar Kunikov. Sadly without sound.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7ybmi/footage_from_aboard_the_tsezar_kunikov_landing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
That is CRAZY

Does Russia not have OpsSpec? Was this guy live-streaming? I'm also surprised they were using regular ammo rounds instead of some sort of depth charger/grenade. Looked like 75% of their rounds were skipping off the top of the water and not penetrating the surface.
Crazy yes and for certain the unmanned vehicles are here to stay and warfare has forever changed.

Chaos in the dark, loud as hell, boat at full speed evasive maneuvers, I am probably missing several other stressors and this was just a swarm of USV, wait till there is a combined swarm of USV, UAV, and whatever the acronym is for underwater. In the other videos there appears to be at least one small boat also maneuvering and I can't tell if that was in defense of the ship, a tender, or the beginnings of rescue. They appeared very close to shore as well.

Supposedly 14" of water will stop a .50cal.



JFABNRGR
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MouthBQ98 said:

There are several types of drone's the Ukrainians can deploy. The manned machine guns can work against the surface drones but they are hard to see at night. Some are semi submersible and harder to hit. At those angles, any fast moving projectile will skip off the surface, and and a slower projectile will be very hard to lead and hit the target. The Ukrainians were apparently using one or more drones to draw fire while then attacking from a different direction with others.

The Russians needed some heavy machine guns and a good spot light to have a chance.
Its my understanding this ship has survived at least two prior engagements by USVs.
JFABNRGR
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:20 graphic of russians dwindling supply depth in arms.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7yadj/while_the_94th_in_omsk_contained_a_large_amount/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

MouthBQ98
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Yes, but possibly not by an entire pack of them at night.
John Armfield
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JFABNRGR said:

:20 graphic of russians dwindling supply depth in arms.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7yadj/while_the_94th_in_omsk_contained_a_large_amount/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


they just get resupplied by China and Iran
JFABNRGR
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MouthBQ98 said:

Yes, but possibly not by an entire pack of them at night.
For sure, their tactics and equipment have improved significantly since then......but the orcs have not.
MouthBQ98
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Yes. On defense you have to get it right every time. The attacker may only need to get it right once.
74OA
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JFABNRGR said:

Footage from onboard the Tsezar Kunikov. Sadly without sound.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7ybmi/footage_from_aboard_the_tsezar_kunikov_landing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
More details on that sinking and on Ukraine's expanding use of USVs in general.

"The video and the description also underscore just how well planned and coordinated these attacks have become, with elements of the pack of USVs distracting the crew while others repeatedly target one specific vulnerability point on the ship's hull. This is a tactic we have seen repeatedly, especially since the loss of the Caesar Kunikov."

ATTACKS
JFABNRGR
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Footage from cargo ship in proximity.....I bet they felt comforted there was a higher priority target.

This looks like a fairly busy lane. I wonder what the depth there is and if possible fouling up the lane.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b875ln/video_recorded_from_one_of_the_cargo_ships_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Have to love the internet research sleuths. The two ships seen in the footage above identified and located with AIS. Make sure to read the OP comments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b838lh/the_patrol_ship_sergey_kotov_was_attacked_23/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

Interesting conversation on drones from the UV, especially on UAV controlling and even dropping UGVs.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2024/03/04/one-million-dollars/
From the latest UV posts - Chris had the skin of his knee cap peeled back by a round and UV is having "butt spasms."

They may need to finally call it a day and go home. They've suffered enough and inflicted a lot on the RuZZians.
nortex97
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Lol. Thx for the update.
Ulysses90
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Bird Poo said:

JFABNRGR said:

Footage from onboard the Tsezar Kunikov. Sadly without sound.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1b7ybmi/footage_from_aboard_the_tsezar_kunikov_landing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
That is CRAZY

Does Russia not have OpsSpec? Was this guy live-streaming? I'm also surprised they were using regular ammo rounds instead of some sort of depth charger/grenade. Looked like 75% of their rounds were skipping off the top of the water and not penetrating the surface.
The US Navy might want to reprogram some funding to update the Battle Stations 21 capstone simulation for Navy recruits.
Waffledynamics
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Surprised this wasn't posted yet. Russia attacked Odessa and a missile hit within a couple hundred meters of Zelensky and the Greek PM.



JFABNRGR
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I am guessing Zelensky never missed a beat like Patton and the Greek pm hit the dirt screaming.
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