I think this is different location. If so thats like 4-5 HIMAR strikes on personnel in the open and training in the last few days.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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Iran just delivered hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia just as its own inventory was dwindling, and just as Ukraine's supply of Patriot defensive missiles is running low.

GRIM

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It is a shame we or the Israelis didn't find a way to hammer that shipment or the facility making them in Iran as payback for the Houthi attacks and the attacks on our troops elsewhere over there.

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The bigger shame is that we're apparently just going to stand aside and watch it happen despite Ukraine fighting Russia to a standstill so far.

GAC06 said:

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Ukrainian HIMARS missile strike at Russian military at firing range in Podo-Kalynivka(Oleshky sands) in Kherson region https://t.co/ejrU55Y4qd

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 21, 2024

Not especially graphic, but it does show a lot of Russians getting hit by airburst GMLRS. Dunno if this is the strike discussed above or another one. Ive been the one calling them in before in Afghanistan. There's a tense and grim period during the time of flight where you watch the doomed people walk around the coordinates where the weapon is headed.

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Thats going to leave a mark…. Lots of brown underwear

GAC06 said:

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Ukrainian HIMARS missile strike at Russian military at firing range in Podo-Kalynivka(Oleshky sands) in Kherson region https://t.co/ejrU55Y4qd

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 21, 2024

Not especially graphic, but it does show a lot of Russians getting hit by airburst GMLRS. Dunno if this is the strike discussed above or another one. Ive been the one calling them in before in Afghanistan. There's a tense and grim period during the time of flight where you watch the doomed people walk around the coordinates where the weapon is headed.

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The black smoke and flash of flame makes that look as if it's a thermobaric warhead that killed the Russians with overpressure. There was no splash of fragmentation on the ground. The effects look similar to the TOS-1 Buratino but on a HIMARS rocket it has a LOT more range and precision.

It has become even more of a war of attrition. The purse string is impacting the battlefields.

Ulysses90 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Ukrainian HIMARS missile strike at Russian military at firing range in Podo-Kalynivka(Oleshky sands) in Kherson region https://t.co/ejrU55Y4qd

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 21, 2024

Not especially graphic, but it does show a lot of Russians getting hit by airburst GMLRS. Dunno if this is the strike discussed above or another one. Ive been the one calling them in before in Afghanistan. There's a tense and grim period during the time of flight where you watch the doomed people walk around the coordinates where the weapon is headed.

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The black smoke and flash of flame makes that look as if it's a thermobaric warhead that killed the Russians with overpressure. There was no splash of fragmentation on the ground. The effects look similar to the TOS-1 Buratino but on a HIMARS rocket it has a LOT more range and precision.

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And the bodies aren't shredded.

74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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Iran just delivered hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia just as its own inventory was dwindling, and just as Ukraine's supply of Patriot defensive missiles is running low.

GRIM

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It is a shame we or the Israelis didn't find a way to hammer that shipment or the facility making them in Iran as payback for the Houthi attacks and the attacks on our troops elsewhere over there.

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The bigger shame is that we're apparently just going to stand aside and watch it happen despite Ukraine fighting Russia to a standstill so far.

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and they are supplying the Houthi with anti-ship missiles. Lots of problems could solved if these guys were taken out.

🔥Ukrainian HIMARS visited another gathering of Russian infantry at a military training ground. This time near Podo-Kalynivka, occupied left bank.

Among losses are Russians from the 328th Rifle Division and 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade. pic.twitter.com/zgGuTd1TsP

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 21, 2024

I don't understand why people keep gathering in the open. Russian and Ukrainian losses have been done this way.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Now that makes sense. If the Patriot already has range, direction and altitude information from another radar to pre-program its search, it could acquire and fire rapidly.

Theoretically they could also fire the missiles to an area with no active radar, only pre programmed launch and flight parameters and have them pre-programmed to go active after a certain flight time/distance calculation and go what I believe they call "bulldog" using only it's own internal radar to attack the nearest target it finds. If it gets close enough to a target that doesn't change course substantially after launch, it would go active nearby and be hitting in seconds after going active.

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I doubt that it was getting the info from another radar system - they're probably not compatible at all to transfer the data to the missile.

BUT...as 740A stated, if they used the other radar to track the aircraft until they knew they were in range of the Patriot...then they could do a quick activation, detect, track, and transfer of the data. Then, they could fire the Patriot, turn off the Patriot radar and the aircraft are toast. Meanwhile, the Patriot battery hauls ass back out of Russian range.

NOTE: Just looked and the PAC-3 can receive Link16 tracks, but I doubt the Ukes were using anything that could have given them that info.

Well that's not something you see everyday lol

⚡️🇺🇦Ukrainian military personnel from the Presidential Brigade destroyed 🇷🇺Russian equipment in the hangar:

▪️ Two C60 installations based on ZIL
▪️ Two T72 tanks
▪️ BMP-3
▪️ Rare Terminator armored combat vehicle
▪️ Gazelle
▪️ Two Urals from BC pic.twitter.com/xvFoYKh2Tc

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) February 20, 2024

Ag with kids said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Now that makes sense. If the Patriot already has range, direction and altitude information from another radar to pre-program its search, it could acquire and fire rapidly.

Theoretically they could also fire the missiles to an area with no active radar, only pre programmed launch and flight parameters and have them pre-programmed to go active after a certain flight time/distance calculation and go what I believe they call "bulldog" using only it's own internal radar to attack the nearest target it finds. If it gets close enough to a target that doesn't change course substantially after launch, it would go active nearby and be hitting in seconds after going active.

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I doubt that it was getting the info from another radar system - they're probably not compatible at all to transfer the data to the missile.

BUT...as 740A stated, if they used the other radar to track the aircraft until they knew they were in range of the Patriot...then they could do a quick activation, detect, track, and transfer of the data. Then, they could fire the Patriot, turn off the Patriot radar and the aircraft are toast. Meanwhile, the Patriot battery hauls ass back out of Russian range.

NOTE: Just looked and the PAC-3 can receive Link16 tracks, but I doubt the Ukes were using anything that could have given them that info.

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Yeah, this makes a lot of sense to me. It's cool to see new tactics (albeit in desperate times) being developed and something I am positive our own military is facilitating at every step. Sometimes we can't deviate from the Book, so having the Ukes do these things is a great back way to test things out in real scenarios instead of just being ideas on a whiteboard.

One of the things that doesn't have a price tag is all the knowledge we are gaining. I have said it before but it bears repeating. There are already American lives saved in the future to near future because of what is happening in Ukraine right now. May be callous, but it is also true. We are seeing what works and what does not work. Lessons that take time to work through and learn from, always at the expense of American blood as that process is occuring. Until now. Ukes are taking the place of those Americans right now. Its awful for them, but the blood price has to be paid unfortunately for these lessons. The battle between arrow and breastplate never, ever stops.

Russian industry struggling to produce enough ammunition to maintain the army's rate of fire on the frontlines.

SHORTAGE

74OA said:

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SHORTAGE

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Thanks for sharing. The closing paragraphs spell it out ....

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Russia is currently producing more ammunition than Ukraine is receiving. However, Russia may be close to its limits of supply while there remains the possibility that Ukraine could still get more from its allies.

That makes clear that Western support and its supply of arms to Ukraine looks set to be a critical factor in the war's outcome. And with a US package, which includes $60bn (48bn) for Ukraine, currently stalled in Congress, the concern is that even with Russia struggling over its supply, it may still be able to outlast Ukraine if Western support does not come through.

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Waffledynamics said:

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🔥Ukrainian HIMARS visited another gathering of Russian infantry at a military training ground. This time near Podo-Kalynivka, occupied left bank.

Among losses are Russians from the 328th Rifle Division and 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade. pic.twitter.com/zgGuTd1TsP

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 21, 2024

I don't understand why people keep gathering in the open. Russian and Ukrainian losses have been done this way.

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The people that learn the lesson keep getting killed.

Doesn't need direct information, just data to manually input to calculate probable future target location so a missile could be fired blind to the right projected enemy location at the missile flight time so it goes active on its own near the future target location. No need for a direct feed. These missiles with onboard radar can literally be blind fired in the direction of a target and will go live on their own when they reach the target area. Probably not what they did but it is possible.

Also regarding the HIMARS rockets in the video, that's an air burst fragmentation. You can see the spray pattern of fragments kick up dust all around the target area below, and the explosion is just enough to fragment the warhead into all the more or less finger knuckle sized pattern of engineered shrapnel it projects. The coverage is very even based on the images I have seen. Almost nothing below is going to escape taking hits similar to getting hit with large caliber bullets, plus the concussion from the warhead detonation. The targets aren't torn apart, they are punched full of 0.5-1" holes at random but fairly tight spacing.

A thermobaric warhead would have been a much bigger visual event, as it has to spread an explosive concoction to detonate and concuss a large area and consume all the oxygen in it.

I wonder even with the back supply from best korea and iran if it matters long term. The reason I ask is the russians tend to shoot at much higher pace than the Ukranians. I know for a while that the russians had to tamper it down because they were short in shells, but will the new supply still keep up with their previous firing habits. Also, they still have to get all that ammo to the front lines and their supply lines suck from what I have seen.

I do think Ukraine is in a bit of a lurch for awhile because I am not sure how long these "aid" packages will actually materialize into front line help.

I think your correct, I didn't see that splash the first couple of times but in the first strike the splash is towards one o'clock, likely meaning the munition came from five o'clock. Its a little harder to tell in the next two strikes.

This vid of alleged GLSDB on a house certainly looks like anti-personnel fragmentation (G39B I think) munition as well. Roof gets shredded but is still somewhat intact and the splash of steel spreads again one-two O'clock and in a larger fan pattern; maybe exploded higher off the ground.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1axcctw/ukrainian_drone_tracks_a_russian_zala/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

MouthBQ98 said:

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Doesn't need direct information, just data to manually input to calculate probable future target location so a missile could be fired blind to the right projected enemy location at the missile flight time so it goes active on its own near the future target location. No need for a direct feed. These missiles with onboard radar can literally be blind fired in the direction of a target and will go live on their own when they reach the target area. Probably not what they did but it is possible.

Also regarding the HIMARS rockets in the video, that's an air burst fragmentation. You can see the spray pattern of fragments kick up dust all around the target area below, and the explosion is just enough to fragment the warhead into all the more or less finger knuckle sized pattern of engineered shrapnel it projects. The coverage is very even based on the images I have seen. Almost nothing below is going to escape taking hits similar to getting hit with large caliber bullets, plus the concussion from the warhead detonation. The targets aren't torn apart, they are punched full of 0.5-1" holes at random but fairly tight spacing.

A thermobaric warhead would have been a much bigger visual event, as it has to spread an explosive concoction to detonate and concuss a large area and consume all the oxygen in it.

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Unless they've changed how it worked completely since I worked on it, I don't think this is correct.

Now it's possible they have changed it, but the way the missile maneuvers doesn't really allow for any "search" capability when it goes live if the target is not close to where it's expected to be. When the missile radar goes active, it's in more of a terminal phase homing state.

I'm just talking in a bit of hypothetical as that is low the latest generation of AAM work. Later Fox3 class missiles only need basic target track information, they fly to that spot not emitting at all, and maybe or maybe not being guided depending on what the launch aircraft or network has done, and only going active when they reach the target area. I was surmising SAM of similar vintage had that capability.

MouthBQ98 said:

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I'm just talking in a bit of hypothetical as that is low the latest generation of AAM work. Later Fox3 class missiles only need basic target track information, they fly to that spot not emitting at all, and maybe or maybe not being guided depending on what the launch aircraft or network has done, and only going active when they reach the target area. I was surmising SAM of similar vintage had that capability.

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I can't speak to other SAMs...only the PAC-3.

But then, PAC-3 was designed as an ABM. So it's targeting it different.

Yes, it would need the most precise in course correction from the tracking radar to set up the highest probability intercept with that type of target. More than likely it is guided that way, but the most dangerous missiles are the ones the pilot doesn't know are even there until they go active seconds or less before hitting.

MouthBQ98 said:

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I'm just talking in a bit of hypothetical as that is low the latest generation of AAM work. Later Fox3 class missiles only need basic target track information, they fly to that spot not emitting at all, and maybe or maybe not being guided depending on what the launch aircraft or network has done, and only going active when they reach the target area. I was surmising SAM of similar vintage had that capability.

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I'll admit, it has been awhile and I'm sure things have changed.

When I was still involved at that level, AMRAAM was launched at range and then guided towards a specific intercept point by the launching aircraft. At a closer in range, the missiles seeker went active to look for the target. If it found it, then the launching aircraft would know, the pilot would transmit "PITBULL" indicating the missile was active and tracking. Launch aircraft would turn away to avoid being engaged in response...reset....and then do it again (unless it was engaging multiple targets at once).

It didn't wander around like a torpedo looking for a target though, it just looked around in it's limited field of view for something. If none presented, then it essentially just went ballistic. Don't recall if it self destructed at a point or not.

Sorry if somewhat vague, but I don't know what remains classified. As a side note, a danger of a self-seeking AAM in a sky crowded with aircraft is that, unless still being guided by the launching aircraft, once the missile goes "PITBULL", it doesn't care who or what it is locked onto.

It's better and increases hit probability greatly for the launch vehicle to guide the middle to the target, at least as long as possible, but the missiles can fly onward to the last calculated intercept point after losing guidance and go active when it gets there. If the target was unaware or hadn't changed course and speed in the interim, the missile might acquire it there with its own terminal radar. If they flew behind terrain or considerably changed course or altitude, they might be out of the missiles detection range or remaining maneuvering envelope, and safe from it.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Yes, it would need the most precise in course correction from the tracking radar to set up the highest probability intercept with that type of target. More than likely it is guided that way, but the most dangerous missiles are the ones the pilot doesn't know are even there until they go active seconds or less before hitting.

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That's a PAC-3 alright.

I can't talk too much about how the whole targeting intercept goes because it's been so long I don't remember what's classified and what isn't - and what might have changed since then.

Build It said:

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Steady supply from Iran, and N. Korea. If given the choice between no oil or give them weapons India will likely follow suit without serious sanctions.

Your article is a bit misleading, Russia isn't going to run out of munitions. They have oil money to buy more and manufacture more. This is more propaganda to encourage the west to send more tax dollars to Ukraine.

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The article didn't say Russia was going to "run out" of munitions. Your post is misleading for claiming that it did. They are maxed out on their current ability to produce munitions, particularly artillery, and even so, they are not keeping up with the rate that it is being used at the front. The only way they have kept Ukraine stalemated in some areas is through profligate use of artillery at rates of something like 5 to 1 over what Ukraine is able to fire. If Russia can't keep their supply up with the rate they are using it, they won't "run out", but they might have to cut back to a smaller ratio like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 over Ukraine, or less if we get off our ass and fund some more for Ukraine. Given the lower accuracy and effectiveness of the Russian artillery fire, dropping from a 5:1 advantage in rate of fire to 2 or 3 to 1 will make a noticeable difference at the front.

txags92 said:

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Build It said:

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Steady supply from Iran, and N. Korea. If given the choice between no oil or give them weapons India will likely follow suit without serious sanctions.

Your article is a bit misleading, Russia isn't going to run out of munitions. They have oil money to buy more and manufacture more. This is more propaganda to encourage the west to send more tax dollars to Ukraine.

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The article didn't say Russia was going to "run out" of munitions. Your post is misleading for claiming that it did. They are maxed out on their current ability to produce munitions, particularly artillery, and even so, they are not keeping up with the rate that it is being used at the front. The only way they have kept Ukraine stalemated in some areas is through profligate use of artillery at rates of something like 5 to 1 over what Ukraine is able to fire. If Russia can't keep their supply up with the rate they are using it, they won't "run out", but they might have to cut back to a smaller ratio like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 over Ukraine, or less if we get off our ass and fund some more for Ukraine. Given the lower accuracy and effectiveness of the Russian artillery fire, dropping from a 5:1 advantage in rate of fire to 2 or 3 to 1 will make a noticeable difference at the front.

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Not to mention the likely very high dud rate from anything coming from Best Korea.

An interesting catch-22 spin on Russia's war economy. By all appearances, it looks like Russia is officially all in ... crushing all internal opposition, shifting to a war economy, and no apparent interest in a compromise. Europe/US options aren't great either. A good faith compromise seems unlikely ... so it's either bend a knee or double down on aid.

Russia's economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

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Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia's economic growth.

And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.

In a context of collapsing infrastructure and growing social unrest inside Russia, the projected cost of rebuilding the occupied area is already massive.

A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse. Having transformed the little industry it had to focus on the war effort, and with a labour shortage problem worsened by hundreds of thousands of war casualties and a massive brain drain, the country would struggle to find a new direction.

Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose it. Its economy is now entirely geared towards continuing a long and ever deadlier conflict.

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it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

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Ouch.

Drone wars. Ukraine UAVs repeatedly hit Russian armor hiding inside a warehouse. Wherever it was, it's at the extreme range of those UAVs as they're all displaying "low battery" or "land now" warnings.

HUNTING

This an interesting tidbit on changing tactics in Ukraine,if true that Russian has some success in jamming US precision guided weapons

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-war-has-shown-the-us-its-expensive-gps-guided-munitions-aren-t-as-effective-as-it-thought-report/ar-BB1iLgZq?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=89201c76e6d2446e9c1e459586a06522&ei=21

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Russian aviation bombing Krasnohorivka with 1500 kgs guided bombs

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/23-february-russian-aviation-bombing-krasnohorivka-with-1500

Russia is trying to move forward from Staromykhailivka.

revvie said:

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This an interesting tidbit on changing tactics in Ukraine,if true that Russian has some success in jamming US precision guided weapons

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-war-has-shown-the-us-its-expensive-gps-guided-munitions-aren-t-as-effective-as-it-thought-report/ar-BB1iLgZq?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=89201c76e6d2446e9c1e459586a06522&ei=21

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Almost all US precision/near-precision munitions use INS for primary guidance with GPS providing updates after launch. Losing/degrading GPS means those munition's CEP is modestly expanded, which typically leaves them still operationally effective against most targets excluding some which are hardened/buried.