Unfortunately a war of attrition favors Russia, as he knows western interest will dwindle and he has the numbers to sacrifice even at disproportionate losses.

Ukraine needs to cause a strategic problem for Russia somehow, or a political one.

Matt Tardio has a Ukrainian commander in Avdiivka on call. The man is very clearly dedicated and emotional. He says he will stay in Avdiivka even if it means he will die there.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Unfortunately a war of attrition favors Russia, as he knows western interest will dwindle and he has the numbers to sacrifice even at disproportionate losses.

Ukraine needs to cause a strategic problem for Russia somehow, or a political one.

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Agree

From a casual observer, it looks like the war is over in terms of Ukraine achieving its stated objectives. It looks like the best they can do is hold onto what they have.

Russia controls the Ukrainian territory, Ukraine is reliant on foreign equipment (more so than Russia is), and has way less manpower.

In order to "win" Ukraine would have to conquer territory, which means going on big offensives that require lots of expendable equipment, which would take a year or two to buildup with full western support. Then they'd have to execute the offensive well and get lucky. Ukraine's big chance was last year and they blew it, (perhaps they didn't have a realistic chance anyway though).

As of today my guess is that at some point in 2025 the Ukraine is going to be forced to swallow and agreement that gives up the majority of the land Russia has conquered, be allowed to join the EU, and have its security "guaranteed" by western powers and Russia (I.e no NATO).

I don't see any reason to be optimistic about Ukraine's position right now, but I also thought Russia would execute the coup in the first 10 days of the war so who knows.

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and have its security "guaranteed" by western powers and Russia (I.e no NATO).

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Yah, they tried that option and it got them here. Good luck convincing them of that.

Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Unfortunately a war of attrition favors Russia, as he knows western interest will dwindle and he has the numbers to sacrifice even at disproportionate losses.

Ukraine needs to cause a strategic problem for Russia somehow, or a political one.

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Ground launched tomahawks would be the tool for that but that's a serious escalation for the US.

Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

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That only works if it is part of a deal with Russia where Ukraine joins NATO, or has some type of similar treaty which contains an obligation on the part of Europe to defend Ukraine in the event of further Russian invasion.

Russia's stated objective was to conquer the whole of Ukraine. At the moment, Ukraine has most certainly stopped them, and Russian doesn't have the equipment or manpower to do it. That is a victory unto itself. Draw the lines, call it a day, let's make sure it can't happen again, and welcome to NATO.

lb3 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Unfortunately a war of attrition favors Russia, as he knows western interest will dwindle and he has the numbers to sacrifice even at disproportionate losses.

Ukraine needs to cause a strategic problem for Russia somehow, or a political one.

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Ground launched tomahawks would be the tool for that but that's a serious escalation for the US.

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It really isn't up to us when the war will end and even if major hostilities end small skirmishes would likely go on for generations.

It does appear to be a stalemate with Ukraine unable to take any lost land back while even losing some, but it does not appear russia is really able to meet its stated objectives either. However if the war ended today russia has still gained valuable lands but at an enormous cost.

There is another way and that is to convince russia to pull back to where who knows, but they are losing a ton of assets to mostly drones. I don't know what the average cost is amongst russian armor but even at a low end of $150K compared to $1500 drone thats a 100:1 ratio. Meanwhile ukes getting better at deep UAV strikes in russia targeting ships, O&G, power plants, manufacturing, etc

The continued loss at the front by drones and a step up in strategic strikes by Ukes may trigger the orcs in negotiating a cease fire.

Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

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74OA said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

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In the end, no one will be saved by acceding to Putin's aggression because Russia will use any pause, ceasefire or peace agreement to simply rearm, reset and invade again. Remember, in 1994 Moscow formally guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and promised to help protect it against any aggression. Why should Ukraine or anyone else believe it will honor any new agreement?

Ukraine has spent two years bleeding the Russian military to a shadow of its former self and the Russian economy is barely able to supply its wartime needs, so it makes zero sense to walk away and let Russia regain its feet and try again when it's strong and ready. Abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that we and Europe will pay a far higher price to correct in the future, and this time it will be with our blood instead of just our money.

Also recall that the US and Britain are also signatories to that 1994 agreement. If we fail Ukraine in its time of greatest need everyone will now know our word is just as worthless as Russia's. The resulting world will be even more dangerous than it is now because our national credibility will be zero.

How about we show at least as much courage as Ukraine?

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What is Uke's path to recapture the territory they've lost? Even if we do send equipment, where is the manpower going to come from?

I agree with Build It when I say I don't see a realistic path forward. Russia has the population to outlast Uke even if the casualties are severely lopsided.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

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In the end, no one will be saved by acceding to Putin's aggression because Russia will use any pause, ceasefire or peace agreement to simply rearm, reset and invade again. Remember, in 1994 Moscow formally guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and promised to help protect it against any aggression. Why should Ukraine or anyone else believe it will honor any new agreement?

Ukraine has spent two years bleeding the Russian military to a shadow of its former self and the Russian economy is barely able to supply its wartime needs, so it makes zero sense to walk away and let Russia regain its feet and try again when it's regained its strength. Abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that we and Europe will pay a far higher price to correct in the future, and this time it will be with our own blood instead of just our money.

Also recall that the US and Britain are also signatories to that 1994 agreement. If we fail Ukraine in its time of greatest need everyone will know our word is just as worthless as Russia's. The resulting world will be even more dangerous than it already is because our national credibility will be zero.

How about we show at least as much courage with our money as Ukraine is showing with its blood?

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This. I bet there were plenty of people cheering on how much money and how many lives were saved when Chamberlain came back from meeting Hitler to announce "Peace in our time!" Putin has no intention of stopping. He is waiting for us to lose interest and give up so that he can restock and continue moving forward. If we give up and abandon our obligation to support Ukraine, we prove his strategy to be correct and give China the road map they need to retake Taiwan.

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Exactly. After flinching when Putin stole the Crimea, if we again show that we won't honor our word to Ukraine, he'll simply be encouraged to invade yet again in the future. That's what I mean when I say abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that will bite us much harder in both money and blood down the road.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

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In the end, no one will be saved by acceding to Putin's aggression because Russia will use any pause, ceasefire or peace agreement to simply rearm, reset and invade again. Remember, in 1994 Moscow formally guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and promised to help protect it against any aggression. Why should Ukraine or anyone else believe it will honor any new agreement?

Ukraine has spent two years bleeding the Russian military to a shadow of its former self and the Russian economy is barely able to supply its wartime needs, so it makes zero sense to walk away and let Russia regain its feet and try again when it's regained its strength. Abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that we and Europe will pay a far higher price to correct in the future, and this time it will be with our own blood instead of just our money.

Also recall that the US and Britain are also signatories to that 1994 agreement. If we fail Ukraine in its time of greatest need everyone will know our word is just as worthless as Russia's. The resulting world will be even more dangerous than it already is because our national credibility will be zero.

How about we show at least as much courage with our money as Ukraine is showing with its blood?

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This. I bet there were plenty of people cheering on how much money and how many lives were saved when Chamberlain came back from meeting Hitler to announce "Peace in our time!" Putin has no intention of stopping. He is waiting for us to lose interest and give up so that he can restock and continue moving forward. If we give up and abandon our obligation to support Ukraine, we prove his strategy to be correct and give China the road map they need to retake Taiwan.

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Exactly. After flinching when Putin stole the Crimea, if we again show that we won't honor our word to Ukraine, he'll simply be encouraged to invade yet again in the future. That's what I mean when I say abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that will bite us much harder in both money and blood down the road.

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Yep. Exactly parallels the false economy of "avoiding a land war in Europe" by negotiating peace treaties to let Hitler steal parts and pieces of the countries around him. Saved all those lives, didn't it? When Putin took parts of Georgia to create a puppet state between Russia and a Georgia that was considering asking to join NATO, we let him do it because who were those people to us? When he took Crimea, we rationalized that Russia had a naval base there and let him do it because who were they to us? Now he has taken a much larger chunk of Ukraine, including areas rich in agricultural production and petroleum/NG resources, and is talking about how he wants Poland and the Baltic states next, and there are still people dumb enough to think that if we just let him have what he has taken so far, he will be satisfied and stop his aggressions.

Those who did not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The older history of Hitler's appeasement, and the newer history of Putin's appeasement suggest there is no reason to believe Russia will not continue to try to expand at the expense of the countries around them. But we have smart and educated people who still don't understand that putting a significant chunk of the world's grain supply and a larger piece of world oil and natural gas under Russian control is not in the best interests of the US. It is all about short sighted budgetary concerns for them. And yes, Europe does care. That is why there are numerous countries over there spending far larger percentages of their GDPs to help Ukraine than we are. But we are stuck in 1938 pretending that if we just let him have what he wants that it won't affect us.

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Very well said.

First look at the new truck-mounted APKWS II laser-guided anti-drone rocket system in action.

CHEAP IS GOOD
VAMPIRE

Russia is losing the battle for the Black Sea. Good look at where the maritime fight stands at the moment.

GRAIN

We can't ignore Russia's military industrial complex. They are ramping up production and making big investments in new capacity, weapons, and doctrine.

The Russian Army today is vastly different from the one we laughed at in 2022 when Kadyrov's TikTok brigades were losing the meme wars or more importantly when the VDV was humiliated in the battles of Hostomel and Antonov Airport.

If Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine in a couple more years, would they convert their new weapons factories to tractor production and send their hardened soldiers home to terrorize their women folk?

By 1950 the US Army that won WWII a few years earlier had atrophied considerably and suffered several early defeats in Korea to inexperienced and ill equipped communist armies. Would an aging Putin take that risk or would he employ the largest and most experienced army in Europe to further Russian interests?

Putin, should he prevail in Ukraine, would be facing a situation not unlike the one prompting Patton's suggestion to use the Army in Europe to push the Russians out before returning home from WWII. Truman's enemies were an ocean away, Putin's enemies are on his borders so their risk calculations may be different.

On 02/12/2024, a Ukrainian Commander calls in from the front line of Avdiivka . He explained in detail why they will not leave. Rape, torture and death of the locals if they are left to the Russians.

The Russians listening in get upset and call in an airstrike to silence him. pic.twitter.com/z87VN9x7s0

— Matt Tardio (@angertab) February 12, 2024

There are serious questions regarding how long Russia can sustain their current level of military spending. They are going to want a respite as much or more than the Ukrainians, as neither side looks capable of dislodging the other from prepared positions on a large scale.

More Shaheds.

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Large fire as result of Russian attack in Dnipro city. One of water pumping stations is out of service due to power outage

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-february-large-fire-as-result-of-russian-attack-in-dnipro

As long as Putin is alive he will never give up Crimea. He has the ultimate solution. Is it worth thousands of more lives? They won't stop.

Tough times ahead for Russias economy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2

Correct. Crimea is an integral part of the Russian long-term defense strategy.

🚨”The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons for Ukraine, is the most important vote we will ever take as US Senators."

Republican Senator Mitt Romney just gave a powerful speech on the Senate floor about the importance of the US standing with Ukraine and our NATO… pic.twitter.com/oFa84Tef5l

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 13, 2024

Good Romney Speech about why this is so critical for America.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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74OA said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Build It said:

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Yup, give up the Crimea and the Donbass and start saving lives. Russia has won. Europe doesn't have the motivation to supply Ukraine and neither do we. End it now.

---

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In the end, no one will be saved by acceding to Putin's aggression because Russia will use any pause, ceasefire or peace agreement to simply rearm, reset and invade again. Remember, in 1994 Moscow formally guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and promised to help protect it against any aggression. Why should Ukraine or anyone else believe it will honor any new agreement?

Ukraine has spent two years bleeding the Russian military to a shadow of its former self and the Russian economy is barely able to supply its wartime needs, so it makes zero sense to walk away and let Russia regain its feet and try again when it's strong and ready. Abandoning Ukraine now is a false economy that we and Europe will pay a far higher price to correct in the future, and this time it will be with our blood instead of just our money.

Also recall that the US and Britain are also signatories to that 1994 agreement. If we fail Ukraine in its time of greatest need everyone will now know our word is just as worthless as Russia's. The resulting world will be even more dangerous than it is now because our national credibility will be zero.

How about we show at least as much courage as Ukraine?

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What is Uke's path to recapture the territory they've lost? Even if we do send equipment, where is the manpower going to come from?

I agree with Build It when I say I don't see a realistic path forward. Russia has the population to outlast Uke even if the casualties are severely lopsided.

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Even if Ukraine can't take more territory. What gives them the most leverage in negotiations? What makes Russia more likely to seek negotiations?

Russia also has serious issues with further mobilization. It's clearly a very sensitive topic for the Russian population. Who's to say just because they exist, that they can actually effectively be mobilized.

At the end of the day, wars of attrition favor the defender the longer they last. Because socially and politically their will to fight and outlast is much stronger than the unjust aggressor. One thing to note, is that Russia very much has a generational divide in support of imperialism. The older generation (read: the least valuable generation for fighting) is the generation that strongly supports the war. The younger generation, especially those in the cities, is less likely to be enthusiastic or even support the war. It's hard to say what the breaking point is, but giving our support is the only way to get there.

I also think it's important to realize we have thousands of Abrams tanks sitting unused in the desert (we deliberately overbuild equipment to both give us flexible inventory in a crisis and keep supply chains moving so that we don't have to rebuild from scratch) military industrial complex's capacity has shrunk substantially because the lack of wars we have fought - generally a good thing, but not if China preemptively strikes American assets in 3 years. Aid for Ukraine is an investment in America that helps ramp back up these supply chains so that if the worst happens and we end up in a great power conflict by the end of the decade (most likely China) at least we have already begun to rebuild our capacity. Furthermore, it is an investment in American interests, not only in Europe, but around the world.

Gordo14 said:

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🚨”The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons for Ukraine, is the most important vote we will ever take as US Senators."

Republican Senator Mitt Romney just gave a powerful speech on the Senate floor about the importance of the US standing with Ukraine and our NATO… pic.twitter.com/oFa84Tef5l

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 13, 2024

Good Romney Speech about why this is so critical for America.

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Little hyperbolic, no? The most important vote ever? I mean, it's not that.

PJYoung said:

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Tough times ahead for Russias economy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2

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Not really. Per IMF FP interview; RT source/report on it:
https://www.rt.com/business/592355-russia-economy-growth-imf/

Quote:

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The Russian economy has been growing faster than many economists projected, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath admitted on Monday in an interview with Foreign Policy magazine.


Russian GDP climbed by 3.6% in 2023 and the country's authorities expect growth of at least 2.3% this year.

The IMF significantly raised its growth forecast for the Russian economy earlier this year, projecting 2.6% growth in 2024. The estimate is a sharp increase from its October forecast of a 1.1% gain. The forecast for 2025 was also increased by 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, to 1.1%.

The Washington-based financial institution has been repeatedly criticized for what has been seen as a very optimistic assessment of Russia's economy despite the intense pressure the West is placing on the country over the Ukraine military operation.

"Russia's growth has come in stronger than we expected, we revised it up by a percentage, and a percentage and a half this year," Gopinath said. "So, we are squarely positive growth territory, it has done better than we expected."

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More. Growth will probably slow down though if/as oil and gas prices are kept down, and they can't continue to ramp (further) up defense spending. I am however confused how their gold reserves have continued to rise through the conflict, as they have been paying the Iranians in gold bullion apparently.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Gordo14 said:

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🚨”The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons for Ukraine, is the most important vote we will ever take as US Senators."

Republican Senator Mitt Romney just gave a powerful speech on the Senate floor about the importance of the US standing with Ukraine and our NATO… pic.twitter.com/oFa84Tef5l

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 13, 2024

Good Romney Speech about why this is so critical for America.

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Little hyperbolic, no? The most important vote ever? I mean, it's not that.

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It could be. Showing weakness increases the odds of World War 3 substantially. There's a reason Iran and North Korea and to a lesser extent China are flooding Russia with equipment...

lb3 said:

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If Mittens is leading the charge, the Senate's Ukraine bill must be loaded with poison pills or immense opportunities for graft.

Hopefully the Europeans will take this opportunity to show some global leadership and take the lead in supporting the Ukrainians.

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Europeans have now officially given more aid to Ukraine than we have. The difference is due to underinvestment in the military industrial complex they've been less able to give equipment. So they give Ukraine cash instead.

Gordo14 said:

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🚨”The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons for Ukraine, is the most important vote we will ever take as US Senators."

Republican Senator Mitt Romney just gave a powerful speech on the Senate floor about the importance of the US standing with Ukraine and our NATO… pic.twitter.com/oFa84Tef5l

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 13, 2024

Good Romney Speech about why this is so critical for America.

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