***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,681,697 Views | 47995 Replies | Last: 10 min ago by DamnGood86
ABATTBQ11
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JFABNRGR said:


This is only the second time (i recall) since winter started this year, that I have seen orcs in white. I almost posted about it a few days ago, again showing how inept they are that they cannot even distribute winter camo in a timely manner.



"Why would we give them winter camo when they're just going to die on it?"

/Russian commanders, probably


But seriously, I have to wonder just how much the expendability of Russian troops factors into how well Russia chooses to equip them. Maybe it's a backwards logic that there's no need to as opposed to outright incompetence.
nortex97
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It was more than likely two Bradley's, not one, and one T-90 operating on its own without support/poor tactics. It already had the turret disabled apparently when the famous video from the Bradley started. Much of the excitement was from smoke grenade launchers being smashed/shot.


Quote:

The much longer 'full' video shows that not only were initially two Bradleys hectoring the lone tank, but as other experts have weighed in, the tank's turret appears to have been already disabled by a combined FPV drone and TOW ATGM attack from the Bradleys. The pro-UA side is pushing the narrative that the Bradley's 25mm Bushmaster is what took out the tank, but that is not the case. While the hits 'look' spectacularthis is only so because the Bradleys are using showy incendiary ammo which is further setting off both the T-90M's smoke canisters at the side of the turret, as well as its reactive armor. But these 25mm hits are not actually penetrating anything.
Quote:

What's interesting is, in the above photo we can see the commander's independent sight is turned precisely toward the side where the Bradleys were for the majority of the 'fight'but the turret was pointed forward at the beginning, and apparently unable to turn. This indicates to me that the commander was watching the Bradleys but the damaged turret was no longer able to bear on them. Afterwards it was somehow short-circuited even more and began spinning entirely, which further indicates there was some kind of turret malfunction happeningmost likely by an earlier FPV/TOW strike.
More here, fwiw.
JFABNRGR
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nortex97 said:

It was more than likely two Bradley's, not one, and one T-90 operating on its own without support/poor tactics. It already had the turret disabled apparently when the famous video from the Bradley started. Much of the excitement was from smoke grenade launchers being smashed/shot.


Quote:

The much longer 'full' video shows that not only were initially two Bradleys hectoring the lone tank, but as other experts have weighed in, the tank's turret appears to have been already disabled by a combined FPV drone and TOW ATGM attack from the Bradleys. The pro-UA side is pushing the narrative that the Bradley's 25mm Bushmaster is what took out the tank, but that is not the case. While the hits 'look' spectacularthis is only so because the Bradleys are using showy incendiary ammo which is further setting off both the T-90M's smoke canisters at the side of the turret, as well as its reactive armor. But these 25mm hits are not actually penetrating anything.
Quote:

What's interesting is, in the above photo we can see the commander's independent sight is turned precisely toward the side where the Bradleys were for the majority of the 'fight'but the turret was pointed forward at the beginning, and apparently unable to turn. This indicates to me that the commander was watching the Bradleys but the damaged turret was no longer able to bear on them. Afterwards it was somehow short-circuited even more and began spinning entirely, which further indicates there was some kind of turret malfunction happeningmost likely by an earlier FPV/TOW strike.
More here, fwiw.
Thanks good info and I did not know that it had already survived a TOW or its thought the TOW caused the turret to malfunction. I wonder if the commanders optics are still operable. Assuming that cone shaped device on top above the left arrow is the optics as they seem undamaged at least structurally.

SO at the end of the day, two 25MMs from separate Brads and one TOW don't inflict as much damage as the less than $1K FPV drone.
nortex97
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Yep, pretty much.
ABATTBQ11
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No ****ing way it survived a TOW hit with just turret damage. Mid generation TOWs are good for 900mm of penetration BEYOND reactive armor with a tandem warhead. A T90 simply doesn't have that kind of protection, even head on at it's thickest points. Even earlier TOWs have enough penetration ability to kill it outright. Any TOW hit will **** it up and enter it into the turret toss.

The 25mm is probably not penetrating the T90's armor like a 120mm, but it is certainly ****ing up everything outside it. The Bradley can blind them and disable their tracks, which is basically what they did if you watch the interview with the gunner. At that point, the tank is a sitting duck, which is why the crew abandoned it.

As for the, "This was just poor tactics," cope, you'd think that an army that's been fighting a war for almost 2 years and a unit equipped with Russia's best production tank would be smarter. But they're not. The fact that a T90 was out by itself and getting ****ed up like this speaks to the poor training of the crew and infantry around it and the general availability of armor.

What we see is great tactics from the Ukrainians who took out Russia's premier MBT with IFV's and the usual suspects trying to downplay it and spin it as a positive. At the end of the day, that T90 was lost and the Bradleys drove away. No matter how you spin it, that's a loss.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Is it a loss that could potentially change the trajectory of the war?
Teslag
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Completely change? No. A single unit level tactic doesn't change the course of wars. It does however severely limit and shred of hope Russia had for any offensive plans. If they can't use their MBT's effectively they have zero hope of using them in the type of numbers and coordination to sustain an offensive.
docb
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Is it a loss that could potentially change the trajectory of the war?

It changed that battle. And they all add up.
Waffledynamics
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Another large cruise missile attack ongoing. Several launches reported on LiveUAMap within the last 5 or 6 hours.
Smeghead4761
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Ukraine taking out Russian drone jammers. With drones.
74OA
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Russia's domestic air defense is increasingly strained by the recent long-range drone attacks from Ukraine. So now Putin has to decide if small but real strikes from Ukraine are more threatening than potential major strikes from NATO and if he should reorient the national IADS to reflect that. Ukraine's strikes are militarily insignificant and economically manageable, but politically/psychologically they directly attack Russian domestic morale by publicly refuting Putin's claim as Russia's defender-in-chief that he has everything under control. It'll be interesting to see how this goes.

For example: "A Russian insider source claimed on Jan. 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south," according to ISW. "Russian air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast are most likely positioned to defend against strikes from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically arrayed its air defense in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks."

Today's SITREP.

2wealfth Man
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Some looney tunes action and music, drone vs. human......orc using destroyed tank for cover, the chase is on and boom

PJYoung
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2wealfth Man said:

Some looney tunes action and music, drove vs. human......orc using destroyed tank for cover, the chase is on and boom


Brutal.
2wealfth Man
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PJYoung said:

2wealfth Man said:

Some looney tunes action and music, drove vs. human......orc using destroyed tank for cover, the chase is on and boom


Brutal.
Thinking of a whole swarm of these killer drones with some kind of body heat seeking capabilities that get smarter and smarter each iteration via AI...
AgLA06
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2wealfth Man said:

PJYoung said:

2wealfth Man said:

Some looney tunes action and music, drove vs. human......orc using destroyed tank for cover, the chase is on and boom


Brutal.
Thinking of a whole swarm of these killer drones with some kind of body heat seeking capabilities that get smarter and smarter each iteration via AI...


Welcome to Skynet!
txags92
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AgLA06 said:

2wealfth Man said:

PJYoung said:

2wealfth Man said:

Some looney tunes action and music, drove vs. human......orc using destroyed tank for cover, the chase is on and boom


Brutal.
Thinking of a whole swarm of these killer drones with some kind of body heat seeking capabilities that get smarter and smarter each iteration via AI...


Welcome to Skynet!
Or as Glenn Reynolds would say..."Skynet smiled..."
74OA
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Turkish Parliament votes to accept Sweden into NATO. Would not have happened without Erdogan's blessing, so final approval seems assured.

Thanks again, Vlad.

Hungary getting ready to cave, too.

ORBAN
shiftyandquick
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74OA said:

Turkish Parliament votes to accept Sweden into NATO. Would not have happened without Erdogan's blessing, so final approval seems assured.

Thanks again, Vlad.
I heard Orban is now blocking.
P.U.T.U
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Russia says Ukraine shot down plane carrying Ukraine POWs

Sure they made the plane an easy target so Russia was in a win-win situation.
The Fife
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There aren't a whole lot of IL-76s in service right now, not sure if I'd count this as a win or not. Wiki says there are about 160 but there has to be a fair amount that are INOP at the moment.
MouthBQ98
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Seems unlikely. The Russians haven't had other aircraft far back from the border shot down, as placing the batteries within artillery or glide bomb range is risky. Belgorod isn't that far from Ukraine, but would require a long range SAM near the border to reach. Any aircraft would have been intercepted and Russian aircraft outrange what Ukraine has right now.

It is not impossible, but given the overall data, a friendly fire incident in Russia or mechanical failure seems more likely. Even a crash and exploitation as a coverup to explain dead pow seems possible. You'd think ground transportation would be considered more economical for just some POW.

But, it can't be rules out that it was Ukraine.
nortex97
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The Ukrainians initially claiming credit for the shoot down and then retracting it is pretty solid evidence they…played a role. The IL-76 is not 'super' but it is not a dangerous/crash-prone platform. The Russians built around 700 of them, and are still building around 5 or so a year, with a large number in storage etc…

I don't see this as a change though prisoner exchanges are I think a good thing for all. Maybe they can exchange prisoners in a third party location like Poland/Germany moving forward.
MouthBQ98
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Makes it seem more likely than not then. Hard to reach that far from the border with a SAM but if they fly into the missile envelope in a combat zone without a civilian transponder and flight plan, it can happen.

Yeah, front line prisoner exchange can be pretty sketchy unless there is a specifically negotiated zone where combat operations are suspended in the vicinity, or like you said, a third party state willing to be intermediary.
AgLA06
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I find it very hard to believe they have POWs on a plane when they generally don't care enough to provide proper medical care (especially medivac) to most of their own soldiers. Especially that close to Ukraine where it makes absolutely no sense and busses make a whole lot more sense.

I don't think anyone knows what actually happened and anything being said right now is a cover up at best by Russia.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

I find it very hard to believe they have POWs on a plane when they generally don't care enough to provide proper medical care (especially medivac) to most of their own soldiers. Especially that close to Ukraine where it makes absolutely no sense and busses make a whole lot more sense.

I don't think anyone knows what actually happened and anything being said right now is a cover up at best by Russia.
It is odd. Transportation in Russia is overwhelmingly by train. Surprising it would dedicate high demand air transport for a routine POW movement.
JFABNRGR
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JFABNRGR
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Reddit is proposing this flight was actually picking up Iranian Weapons, but this could easily be another aircraft but apparently another IL76 traveled to Iran and looped back up to the west over Saudi, Egypt, and Turkey on a general direction towards the AO but turned off transponder before entering Turkey.

If this is the same aircraft I would expect Uke Intel to publish this but they could be waiting on our approval.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/rff8319#33ba78b2

Edit: I watched this track over the Med and this plane could have easily went into Syria turning 90 degrees just before squawking off.
cslifer
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Personally I think they probably were on the plane. The Russians probably did exactly what the Ukrainians say and weren't forthcoming with details about transport hoping that this would be the end result. A dirty yet pretty unsophisticated trick and Ukraine fell for it hook line and sinker.
74OA
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Latest on the POW plane. Still lots to be learned and plenty of conflicting reports.

CRASH
nortex97
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A lot of weirdness around the flight and reports. Propaganda from both sides. No clue.
aggie_sprt
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Could be an expensive psyop by Russia with the following objectives;

1. Create plauisble explanation for POW deaths/maltreatment and/or excuse for cancelling POW exchange
2. Create negative press for Ukraine
3. Damage Ukraine morale
4. Suppress Ukraine AA by virtue of making Ukraine AA commanders second guess if target maybe carrying POWs

I also am skeptical that Russia would bother spending the fuel and flight hours transporting a realitive handful of POW's given the much less expensive methods available.
TheVarian
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To be fair, they have been sending lots of soldiers, tanks, and other materials to their death. So I'd say they are pretty good at spending money and not caring about it
agent-maroon
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Would they really sacrifice an airplane for a psyops operation? They do some really questionable stupid stuff as we've all seen, but that seems like a bridge too far...
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Touchless
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agent-maroon said:

Would they really sacrifice an airplane for a psyops operation? They do some really questionable stupid stuff as we've all seen, but that seems like a bridge too far...
Not just the plane, but their own pilots and crew as well.
docb
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There is no truth to much anything coming out of the Kremlin.
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