***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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Ukraine strikes aircraft and cruise missile factory 200 miles deep into Russia.

DRONES

Patriot doing work defending Ukraine.

SAM
74OA
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Storm wrecks Sevastopol harbor defenses. "A Planet Labs satellite image taken today shows lines of booms and barges, among other obstacles, that once protected the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in serious disarray. Some of the booms have been detached and some of the barges are no longer visible after the storm."

STORM
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

3 vessels have collided in Kerch strait during the storm
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-november-3-vessels-have-collided-in-kerch-strait-during
74OA
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aggiehawg
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What are they planning to hit with those rockets?
txags92
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aggiehawg said:

What are they planning to hit with those rockets?
Probably boats or ferries trying to cross the Dnipro north of Kherson.
USAFAg
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aggiehawg said:

What are they planning to hit with those rockets?


They heard that the Ukes were taking their girlfriends to the river to watch the submarine races.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
GAC06
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aggiehawg said:

What are they planning to hit with those rockets?


There have been lots of pictures of Russians mounting available naval weapons on tactical vehicles, with dubious effectiveness.
Eliminatus
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Was looking up the range on it and its variance is wild. From a few hundred meters to over 4Km depending on munition.

On one hand I see the desperation move. OTOH if it works, is it stupid? Well yes, probably still stupid but if it goes bang and they have it and not the stuff they should normally be using then eh. Pragmatism is also key on the battlefield.

If these get pushed out I look forward to seeing drones high-ordering them and the trucks in the near future. These will stick out like a sore thumb out there. Much like the TOS-1s in that regard.
txags92
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Eliminatus said:

Was looking up the range on it and its variance is wild. From a few hundred meters to over 4Km depending on munition.

On one hand I see the desperation move. OTOH if it works, is it stupid? Well yes, probably still stupid but if it goes bang and they have it and not the stuff they should normally be using then eh. Pragmatism is also key on the battlefield.

If these get pushed out I look forward to seeing drones high-ordering them and the trucks in the near future. These will stick out like a sore thumb out there. Much like the TOS-1s in that regard.

Also have to wonder about the warheads. If it is designed to sink underwater some distance with a depth based fuze, how well will it work impacting a hard object prior to detonation or affecting surface ships?
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Also have to wonder about the warheads. If it is designed to sink underwater some distance with a depth based fuze, how well will it work impacting a hard object prior to detonation or affecting surface ships?
Kind of what I was thinking. How do they detonate?
MouthBQ98
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I imagine they have configurable fuses for different target types, or they can at least be set to detonate on any impact versus being activated by the first impact (with water, theoretically). Not sure if some random Russian army conscript would have any idea how to do it. Hell, they might not even have the ballistic charts to aim it.
USAFAg
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MouthBQ98 said:

I imagine they have configurable fuses for different target types, or they can at least be set to detonate on any impact versus being activated by the first impact (with water, theoretically). Not sure if some random Russian army conscript would have any idea how to do it. Hell, they might not even have the ballistic charts to aim it.
Just a thought based on my limited knowledge of the weapon, but if they are like our old Hedgehog anti-sub weapons they are an aimed, but unguided area attack. I believe these formate and fall in a circular pattern. So you aim where you think the sub is using that as your center point and surround the supposedly moving sub with rockets hoping it will move into one.

On land, I suppose they might be used kind of like a cluster munition. Center point on target, surround it with explosives <shrug>

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MouthBQ98
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Yeah, it's a relatively short range projectile cluster, probably a mile or two, so close might be enough for an area bombardment
74OA
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Black Sea storm of the century also washed away Russia's defenses along the Kerch Bridge.

BRIDGE
74OA
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Beyond the Black Sea coast, mega-storm has widespread effects on the fighting across Ukraine and other notes from the front.

Today's SITREP.
Robert C. Christian
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Saw this tweet from the Real Time WW2 account. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

aezmvp
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I can't imagine what it would cost to dig a tunnel under the sea from Rostov to Crimea. Wowzers.
RogerEnright
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aezmvp said:

I can't imagine what it would cost to dig a tunnel under the sea from Rostov to Crimea. Wowzers.
Ask a Hamas contractor?
agent-maroon
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aezmvp said:

I can't imagine what it would cost to dig a tunnel under the sea from Rostov to Crimea. Wowzers.

Would also be easy to target or at least I would assume it would be.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
74OA
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Kremlin increasingly recruiting foreigners. "Against this backdrop, British Defense Intelligence warned in September that the Kremlin is now eying the roughly six million migrant workers within Russia as an untapped manpower source for the frontline. Local press reports indicate that some migrants are already being rounded up and pressed into service a trend with dark parallels to Germany's frantic mobilization of foreign laborers in the last months of World War II."

DESPERATION
aezmvp
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Entrances maybe? But that's going to be a really deep tunnel. Outside of a massive suicide truck bomb... it's not gonna be easy after the first couple hundred meters of length.
chickencoupe16
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Definitely would need to hit the entrances but if you could cause a leak, that would be a very bad time for the orcs.
P.U.T.U
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Necessity is the mother of invention. They have been using a ton of ground based weapons so I would figure at this point why not try? Probably does a better job at entrenched positions and buildings than standard artillery.
74OA
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Russian support for the war supposedly reaches rock bottom according to new poll. As we know, it matters who conducts a poll and how the questions are formulated.

POLL
agent-maroon
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Your probably right. I was thinking about some sort of an underwater drone that would be hard to detect, but it would have to be submarine sized to carry enough ordinance.

But I think it's a moot point anyways. The orcs aren't going to be rich enough to build that tunnel for a while
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ABATTBQ11
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Bring on the drone boats!
74OA
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Russia continues to tinker with the Iranian drones it has received, trying to make them more deadly.

SHAHED
P.U.T.U
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And easier to track/detect. Basic off the shelf tools can detect and triangulate a cell signal. I can see some uses of it but not with the current platforms
Eliminatus
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74OA said:

Russian support for the war supposedly reaches rock bottom according to new poll. As we know, it matters who conducts a poll and how the questions are formulated.

POLL


I don't think it will matter much as long as it's the uneducated mobiks making up the majority of the ground forces. Which they still are to my knowledge. Russia has absolute swarms of the redneck trailer trash types who are getting offered what basically amounts to six figure jobs to go and fight for a while. And the other more elite side of Russia doesn't much care about them.

The butchery of the last couple of months is looking like it will be the most costly to Russia since the start. Even the height of Bakhmut is not beating what is occurring right now. And we are approaching two years in and the pace of Russian aggression is still furious. Maybe even growing. Pretty wild to see.

Used to think that if the much hoped for Russian collapse was to occur it would be slow with lots of signs. Starting to think if it were to happen now, it may be very quick. Still wish so much Prigozohn would have just kept driving… What an f'ing idiot in every way possible.
P.U.T.U
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Does anyone have anything regarding the total casualty numbers in Andiivka vs Bakhmut?
74OA
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The war in maps. Good visual orientation piece.

BBC

Kiev hits Russian railway deep in Siberia.

SABOTAGE
B-1 83
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Wow! That is a long way away. People do t realize that the Siber is bigger than the continental U.S. all by itself, and quite a distance from even Moscow.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
74OA
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B-1 83 said:

Wow! That is a long way away. People do t realize that the Siber is bigger than the continental U.S. all by itself, and quite a distance from even Moscow.
…… and that railroad is the only mainline between Russia and China.
sclaff
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Summary of deep strikes

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