EastSideAg2002 said:

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lb3 said:

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Russian instructor of Storm Z penal units explains the impact that Ukrainian cluster munitions are having on the Russian infantry, not only killing and wounding them, but also disrupting logistics of evacuation, and overfilling the hospitals. He says that wounded Russian… pic.twitter.com/NbVQHXyCK3

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 14, 2023

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Surprised they evacuate any of them

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Seems like they patch them up well enough to shoot and sent them back out. That would indicate to me a higher level of desperation.

Jetpilot86 said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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lb3 said:

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Russian instructor of Storm Z penal units explains the impact that Ukrainian cluster munitions are having on the Russian infantry, not only killing and wounding them, but also disrupting logistics of evacuation, and overfilling the hospitals. He says that wounded Russian… pic.twitter.com/NbVQHXyCK3

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 14, 2023

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Surprised they evacuate any of them

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Seems like they patch them up well enough to shoot and sent them back out. That would indicate to me a higher level of desperation.

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\

"And far away behind their lines the partisans are stirring in the forest
Coming unexpectedly upon their outposts, growing like a promise
You'll never know, you'll never know which way to turn, which way to look you'll never see us
As we're stealing through the blackness of the night
You'll never know, you'll never hear us
And the evening sings in a voice of amber, the dawn is surely coming"

RISING

I wonder how long before the Russians start executing/burning whole villages in reprisal? You know it's coming, it's just who they are.

One could make the argument that they've already been doing this with artillery for a while

agent-maroon said:

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One could make the argument that they've already been doing this with artillery for a while

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Yep. Which is why I say "that's just who they are"....

USA*** said:

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I wonder how long before the Russians start executing/burning whole villages in reprisal? You know it's coming, it's just who they are.

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Well, they've been doing that since the start of the war (e.g. Bucha), so apparently they didn't feel the need to wait on partisans.

Czechs seize Russian assets, Ukraine shoots down 14 drones and other miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES

A brief history of the Battle of the Black Sea.

CHRONOLOGY

Whatever happened to the barrier that was being created by sinking barges? Want to say that it was meant to protect the Kerch bridge but I am probably wrong on that point. I just remember that it was going to take a LOT of barges to complete.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 16 November 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/ZelMQmkAgF

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/uLXQlx6VsU

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 16, 2023

Today's SITREP.

Interesting video regarding the counteroffensive. I'd be curious to see feedback on his analysis. He's more of a presenter than a SME.

It's not all doom and gloom for Ukraine. It's more of a sobering look at both sides.

Thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian kids in Belarus, 151 ships have safely used the "temporary" grain shipment corridor, Russia holds more than 3.500 Ukrainian POWs and other notes.

UPDATES

⚡️Zelensky: Artillery munition deliveries to Ukraine have decreased since Israel-Hamas War.

The delivery of artillery shells to Ukraine from Western allies has decreased since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict, President Zelensky said on Nov. 16. https://t.co/ZI4Qcm0xGI

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 17, 2023

Russia adjusting in anticipation of Ukraine getting F-16s.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 17 November 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/BtpR9In1CN

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/jwKWxO7xjl

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 17, 2023

Reported under a day ago:

Quote:

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Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to gain foothold at the left bank of Dnipro river at Kherson direction, - Ukrainian Marines Command in a statement

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/17-november-ukrainian-defense-forces-managed-to-gain-foothold

Quote:

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine established themselves on several bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region . cooperation with other units of the Defense Forces, managed to gain a foothold on several bridgeheads", - says the message of the Marine Corps Command of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook.

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https://t.me/UkraineNow/42558

I can't seem to find the Facebook post that says exactly that, but I have found mention of a Dnipro crossing.

Heavy fighting on the Dnipro, large Russian attack on infrastructure and other notes.

UPDATES

They've been operating on the opposite bank for months. I think the latest development is using a friend and moving heavier equipment across.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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They've been operating on the opposite bank for months. I think the latest development is using a friend and moving heavier equipment across.

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Indeed, it seems this is an announcement of a greater foothold.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-sniper-destroys-record-for-longest-kill/

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A Ukrainian sniper and special operations serviceman from the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, successfully hit a Russian soldier at 3,800 meters (2,36 miles), establishing a new global record for a successful sniper shot.

The previous record stood at 3,540 meters.

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Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 20 Shahed drones launched overnight

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-november-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-15-of-20-shahed

Ulysses90 said:

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https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-sniper-destroys-record-for-longest-kill/

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Impressive ballistics for that wildcat. With the higher 50 cal BC's and a larger cartridge they can approach 4,000 fps with a 750gr bullet and stay supersonic beyond 3,000 meters. Barrel life gotta suck though.

🎥A rather rare look into the work of Ukrainian support unit - 81st Management Battalion of 9th Army Corps. The unit is tasked with setting up command posts, communications and other stuff needed for the Ukrainian corps. #UkrainianArmy pic.twitter.com/l5ISKzHXRP

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) November 19, 2023

Cool vid but hope those guys don't have to learn the hard way it's best to spread out at least 5 feet from each other when assembling out under an open sky like that. Even if they were out of range of any drones or had a good sky watch posted, it's still probably a good habit to get into, or so I've heard.

Quote:

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Ukrainian airstrike with JDAM at Russian base near Tarasivka of Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/20-november-ukrainian-airstrike-with-jdam-at-russian-base

https://t.me/dvish_alive/29592

Foreign Affairs: Redefining success in Ukraine, "A New Strategy Must Balance Means and Ends."

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Russia may well reject Ukraine's offer of a cease-fire. But even if the Kremlin proves intransigent, Ukraine's shift from offense to defense would limit the continuing loss of its soldiers, enable it to direct more resources to long-term defense and reconstruction, and shore up Western support by demonstrating that Kyiv has a workable strategy aimed at attainable goals. Over the longer term, this strategic pivot would make it clear to Russia that it cannot simply hope to outlast Ukraine and the West's willingness to support it. That realization may eventually convince Moscow to move from the battlefield to the negotiating tablea move that would be to Ukraine's ultimate advantage, since diplomacy offers the most realistic path for ending not only the war but also, over the long term, Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory.

STALEMATE

The current situation on the battlefield yields a glass-half-full, glass-half-empty picture. On one side of the ledger, Ukraine has demonstrated stunning resolve and skill, not only denying Russia's attempt to subjugate it but also taking back a considerable portion of the territory seized by Russia last year. On the other side of the ledger are the enormous human and economic costs of the war and the reality that Russia has succeeded, at least for now, in using force to seize a sizable piece of Ukraine's territory. Despite Ukraine's much-heralded counteroffensive, Russia has actually gained more territory over the course of 2023 than Ukraine has. Overall, neither side has made significant advances. Ukrainian and Russian forces have fought to an effective standstill: a stalemate has set in.

What, then, is to be done? One option for the West is to do more of the same, continuing to provide an enormous amount of weaponry to Ukraine in the hope that doing so will enable its forces to eventually defeat Russia's. The problem is that Ukraine's military shows no signs of being able to break through Russia's formidable defenses, no matter how long and hard it fights. Defense tends to have the advantage over offense, and Russian forces are dug in behind miles of mine fields, trenches, traps, and fortifications. The West can send more tanks, long-range missiles, and eventually F-16 fighter jets. But there is no silver bullet capable of turning the tide on the battlefield. As Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine's top general, recently admitted, "There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough." We are where we are on the battlefield in Ukraine, and where we are looks at best like a costly deadlock.

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Overall, a balanced, informed perspective.

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Whether or not a cease-fire takes hold, Ukraine needs to pivot to a defensive strategy, away from its current offensive strategy. Kyiv's existing approach is one of high costs and low prospects, putting Ukrainians in the awkward position of asking for open-ended Western assistance on behalf of an effort with diminishing chances of success. Instead, Ukraine should focus on holding and rebuilding the territory that it now controls, reversing the offense-defense equation and putting Russia in the position of having to bear the exorbitant costs of conducting offensive operations against well-dug-in Ukrainian forces and expanded air defenses. Even as it switched to a defensive strategy along the frontlines, Ukraine could continue using long-range weapons, naval assets, and covert operations to strike at Russian positions in rear areas and in Crimea, raising the costs of continuing occupation. And should clear evidence emerge that Russia's military capability or will is faltering, Ukraine would retain the option of returning to a more offensive-oriented strategy.

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Weather is just nasty largely across the country/Black Sea:

⚡️Minister: 9 dead, 11 missing due to storms in Turkey.

Nine people have been killed by large storms in Turkey, including a crew member of a Turkish ship that sunk off the Black Sea coast, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on Nov. 20, as cited by Anadolu.

Learn more here:… pic.twitter.com/rf8aYeLMtv

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 20, 2023

SECDEF in Kiev, Russia whines to Finland about border closure and other notes.

UPDATES

This is important because it will secure the grain ship route which runs through those country's otherwise protected territorial waters to Ukraine and then back to the Med.

⚡️ NATO members nearing deal on joint Black Sea mine-clearing force.

NATO members Bulgaria, Turkey, and Romania are close to reaching an agreement on the creation of a joint mine-clearing force to address the issue of mines drifting into their respective territorial waters,…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 20, 2023

Interesting sidenote to Ukraine's struggle keeping its energy infrastructure working.

The problem: "Ukraine's grid operators were facing a serious but underreported problem, they told their dinner companions: The constant GPS jamming that both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries use to interfere with guided missiles was also disrupting visibility for Ukraine's power grid operators, who relied on GPS-based clocks to relay information about power flow from one location to another."

The FIX.

The muddy season has arrived in Ukraine and other notes from the front.

Today's SITREP.

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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Quote:

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Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov is preparing submissions for dismissal :
- Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev (may become one of the main defendants in the case that concerns the defense of the Kherson region in 2022);
- Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky;
Commander of the Medical Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Tatyana Ostashchenko;
This was reported by Ukrayinska Pravda with reference to sources in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

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And:

Quote:

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Rumors are beginning to circulate that a major purge of the MOD is imminent.The new Minister of Defense Umerov is preparing proposals for the dismissal of the commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine T. Ostashchenko Commander of the Operational-Strategic Group of Troops "Tavria" Alexander Tarnavsky Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev. Earlier today, ex-People's Deputy Borislav Bereza, citing sources in the State Bureau said that Naev and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny could be served with suspicions (of crimes).

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Zelensky out for Zaluzhny? I dunno, some high drama in any case from multiple reports in Ukrainian media (which is state controlled/regulated).

Quote:

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Additionally, complete defoliation of tree cover will give even clearer line of sight to Russian fire-control capabilities and allow easier identification of enemy positions to pound out.

That being said, Russia is in no particular rush and is likely enjoying the current meltdown happening amongst Ukrainian leadership. At this pace Avdeevka could still potentially hold out another 2-3 months, depending how hard Russia presses in. Particularly if Ukrainian reports are accurate, which say according to their side that Russia does not yet have full fire-control over that one main MSR.

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Avdiivka looks like a matter of days at this point, maybe a week.

A satellite image from Sept. 15 shows that construction of the plant in Tatarstan directly correlates to leaked plans that the Washington Post published together with the think tank in August.https://t.co/YaTiCtb1j8

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 14, 2023

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"Avdiivka looks like a matter of days at this point, maybe a week".

Looking like the over on the matter of days vs maybe a week?

Yes, I think the weather has functionally slowed down the attacks, and the attacks on medical/evacuation vehicles is grotesque: it sounds like a ghost town though…

Quote:

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Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that Russia's military appeared to be sending fewer troops and less equipment into the battle for the shattered eastern town of Avdiivka, seen as a gateway to the capital city of Donetsk region.

Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun said there were fewer ground assaults and fewer air strikes on Avdiivka, a town with a pre-war population of about 32,000 which has been under Russian attack for more than a month. About 1,500 residents remain.

"Russian occupying forces have reduced the number of ground and air attacks, though they still violate the rules of war by shooting at medical teams and evacuation vehicles," Shtupun told national television. Russia denies such allegations.

"The invaders are not abandoning their plans to surround Avdiivka. Eight attacks were repelled today."
The head of Avdiivka's military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said fighting was gripping an industrial district and Ukrainian forces were holding their positions. Major fortifications were erected after Russian-funded separatists briefly seized Avdiivka in 2014.

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Contrary info concerning Avdivka

How much aid has the US sent to Ukraine vs the rest of the world? Here are six charts.

STATS