I don't know what is going on in Avdiivka but I suspect some COL or LTC has been given a death threat for his family and mistress if they don't capture it. In the end I suspect he will not make it back to fall off any high balconies but again from an anonymous Ukrainian Soldier.

"We are lucky they are so ****ing stupid"

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/17c7pey/more_russia_losses_avdiivka_direction/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/17c577o/another_failed_attack_towards_avdiivka/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

TOS-1 Vaporized but not sure this is Avdiika.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/17c8zda/tos1a_vaporized_by_fpv_drone/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

PJYoung said:

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The Pentagon plans to send Israel tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that had been designated for Ukraine. This comes after ammunition storehouses in Israel were depleted to send artillery to Ukraine.

Via @axios' @BarakRavidhttps://t.co/Zd7aVRHsZa

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) October 19, 2023

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Yet another indicator of the slow crumbling of Russia's economy.

"A Russian federal subject (region) is attempting to compensate for labor shortages in its defense sector by spearheading an initiative to allow some minors to work in hazardous conditions. The Republic of Tatarstan is preparing a proposal to amend its labor code to allow Russian minors aged 16-18 to work in hazardous conditions under a fixed-term contract due to personnel shortages. The Russian State Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy, and Veterans' Affairs Yaroslav Nilov expressed support for allowing some teenagers to work at defense enterprises and noted labor shortages across the industry, including at aircraft manufacturing plants and at small-arms manufacturer Kalashnikov Concern. Russian newswire Kommersant noted that the proposal calls on the Russian federal government to resolve contradictions in federal child labor policies, and such a resolution would likely allow other federal subjects to pass similar legislation to the Tatarstan proposal. Tatarstan also notably houses a Shahed drone production plant, and there have been reports that college students are working at the plant. This law may allow Russian authorities to exploit child labor for the production of Shahed drones."

ISW

BREAKING:

Chinese ship suspected of damaging gas pipeline & comms cables between Sweden, Finland & Estonia

Swedish Navy submarine vessel Belos surveyed the damaged cable

Confirms damage by external force in position matching the track of the Chinese Newnew Polar Bear ship pic.twitter.com/HDuX7QRfDC

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 20, 2023

I wouldn't be surprised if the Donetsk offensive has cost around 20,000+ KIA/WIA on the Russian side since it kicked off. UA estimates are unlikely not inflated either. If anything, they are on the low end.

The photo was pulled off a released video...

Welcome to Andiivka, where… pic.twitter.com/bOtrFk8Dz0

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) October 20, 2023

Many people have criticised GeoConfirmed's count of "21 helicopters destroyed or damaged" in the recent strikes on Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields. Someone said in a @HelloMrBond Twitter space that GeoConfirmed had "counted empty revetments", which is not true.

I can say that… https://t.co/L1kYRlsMlK pic.twitter.com/sNf0yz73pW

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) October 20, 2023

LMCane said:

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Many people have criticised GeoConfirmed's count of "21 helicopters destroyed or damaged" in the recent strikes on Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields. Someone said in a @HelloMrBond Twitter space that GeoConfirmed had "counted empty revetments", which is not true.

I can say that… https://t.co/L1kYRlsMlK pic.twitter.com/sNf0yz73pW

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) October 20, 2023

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I saw that. Pretty nuts.

It would be like us losing an entire combat aviation battalion (ish).

#Berdyansk airfield.
A side view of 🇷🇺 Ka-52 after hit by an #ATACMS.

cc @DRatka1 @KapitanLisowski @_LOAC_lawyer @PToveri @bartelds @UAWeapons @AirRecognition @vcdgf555 @The_Lookout_N @PEmeryt @Kafir_PL @bamr69 @ChrisO_wiki @WarNewsPL1 @Tatarigami_UA @Darth_is_Vader pic.twitter.com/FyE15AHisv

— JR2 (@JanR210) October 20, 2023

I think it's safe to say the avionics and fire control components might have some issues if they can even get it off the ground.

Rollup: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1715279799482982416.html

2/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, "Iran is currently supplying Russia with its radar systems for detecting and combating low-observable flying vehicles – UAVs."

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) October 20, 2023

21 Helos, a Panstir, and the munitions bunker for the Helos plus all of the Armor lost just in Avdiinka.

Those losses are massive on a financial scale and have significantly degraded orcs ability to continue defense of their land grab and degrade their abilities elsewhere.

I am very satisfied with such use of our weapons as intended, just regret not buying some MIC stocks 20 months ago.

DCPD158 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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21 Helos, a Panstir, and the munitions bunker for the Helos plus all of the Armor lost just in Avdiinka.

Those losses are massive on a financial scale and have significantly degraded orcs ability to continue defense of their land grab and degrade their abilities elsewhere.

I am very satisfied with such use of our weapons as intended, just regret not buying some MIC stocks 20 months ago.

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And this is our "Overstock.com" stuff. Think about what happens if we use the shiny new stuff.

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Overstock.com just changed their name to Bed Bath and Beyond, which makes your sentence and even better!

Russians lost another Ilyushin Il-76, this time in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

According to the source (Telegram/Fighterbomber) the engines caught fire during the takeoff phase. Crew survived, but the plane is scrap metal.#Tajikistan #Russia pic.twitter.com/JeFYI4ZlJE

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 20, 2023

Gluttons for punishment

2/ Geolocated footage published on October 20 shows that Russian forces secured minor advances west of Krasnohorivka (5km north of #Avdiivka). https://t.co/X1lqXUTf5v pic.twitter.com/fUtsSwfxaH

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 20, 2023

4/ The initial Russian offensive operations in the #Avdiivka area on October 10 also resulted in high verified Russian equipment losses... https://t.co/X1lqXUTf5v

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 20, 2023

6/ Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of #Donetsk City on October 20 but did not make any confirmed advances. https://t.co/X1lqXUTf5v pic.twitter.com/diM9qO0vab

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 21, 2023

⚡️Training of 🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers in river crossing on M3 Amphibious Rig machines, which has been ongoing since February of this year

These machines were promised before the transfer by the 🇳🇱Netherlands. pic.twitter.com/GbCb1boNmU

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) October 21, 2023

Am I incorrect in my perception that they are fighting over much of the same territory over and over again?

ATACMS arrival will likely force Russia into significant asset relocations further to the rear and other frontline notes.

Today's SITREP.

aggiehawg said:

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Am I incorrect in my perception that they are fighting over much of the same territory over and over again?

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Applicable primarily in the far east (Donetsk), where Russia is attempting to regain territory lost during Ukraine's Kharkiv offensive last year. This has entailed repeated Russian attacks for many months over the same terrain with high losses and very little gain.

Most of the fighting elsewhere is Ukraine's slow grinding offensive in the south which is its first attempt to regain ground there.

Thank you. When I keep seeing the same names of cities and towns over and over again, I get confused as to who is advancing as opposed to retaking territory.

⚡️Training of 🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers in river crossing on M3 Amphibious Rig machines, which has been ongoing since February of this year

These machines were promised before the transfer by the 🇳🇱Netherlands. pic.twitter.com/GbCb1boNmU

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) October 21, 2023

aggiehawg said:

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Thank you. When I keep seeing the same names of cities and towns over and over again, I get confused as to who is advancing as opposed to retaking territory.

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Sometimes it also doesn't help when there are multiple cities by the same name. There are at least two of Opytne, for example--one near Bakhmut, and the other near Avdiivka.

Waffledynamics said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Thank you. When I keep seeing the same names of cities and towns over and over again, I get confused as to who is advancing as opposed to retaking territory.

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Sometimes it also doesn't help when there are multiple cities by the same name. There are at least two of Opytne, for example--one near Bakhmut, and the other near Avdiivka.

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Well because of course. Bet FedEx gets frustrated with that.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 October 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/fTCapAnT9f

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/rMukSoS2Xd

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 21, 2023

Russian forces are struggling to interdict Ukrainian efforts to supply and reinforce newly captured positions on the east (left) bank of #Kherson Oblast. https://t.co/MYF6pBX5jt https://t.co/RHoajzFgi1 pic.twitter.com/EO9RBvBos5

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 22, 2023

Russian propagandist Solovyev fired his propagandist Yevgeniy Satanovskiy for the criticism of antisemitic talk of Maria Zakharova, spokesperson of Russian foreign affairs ministry. Satanovskiy called Zakharova "heavily drinking." He also said that Bogdanov, deputy minister of… pic.twitter.com/IZB6T7phg6

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 21, 2023

Staggering ... and the 150-190k doesn't even include Wagner or their prison fodder. By comparison, our combined KIA for all wars since WW2 (~75 yrs) was 103k (Korea/Vietnam/Middle East).

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 22 October 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/weRQDP6Fwr

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/9eCmqEJw8k

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 22, 2023

benchmark said:

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Staggering ... and that doesn't include Wagner or their prison fodder. By comparison, our combined KIA for all wars since WW2 (~75 yrs) was 103k (Korea/Vietnam/Middle East).

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 22 October 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/weRQDP6Fwr

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/9eCmqEJw8k

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 22, 2023

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I'm only half joking when I say there are folks in small Siberian towns who may not even know such a war is going on.

Long thread, but good. The following particularly stood out.

Russian Telegram channels are hailing their alliance with North Korea and whitewashing North Korea's totalitarian system

Some of the more interesting reactions here /1

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 22, 2023

Russia's sanctions evasion tactics are also revealed

The Khasan facility could have 11 rapid assembly plants operated by Russia/DPRK for 155mm ammunition missiles for MLRS and howitzer

There is silence there and camouflaged trucks move across the border https://t.co/yH6bSjiwy1

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 22, 2023

Miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES

This is a helpful report by the Ukrainian journalist Butusov on the battle of Avdiivka as of late 22 October. It goes over the military formations involved in the battle from both sides and touches upon the current situation. In short, Ukrainian forces withstood what no one else… pic.twitter.com/1DxeNL0tKS

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 23, 2023

benchmark said:

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This is a helpful report by the Ukrainian journalist Butusov on the battle of Avdiivka as of late 22 October. It goes over the military formations involved in the battle from both sides and touches upon the current situation. In short, Ukrainian forces withstood what no one else… pic.twitter.com/1DxeNL0tKS

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 23, 2023

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That's all great and I'm in full support....


But this line is a bit much.

"Ukrainian forces withstood what no one else could and held the main defence line"

Ukraine continues to impress, but they're still learning how to be a competent, cohesive army. Their offensive stumbles should have humbled these kind of responses a bit. When they can continue to grow and evolve into high level, coordinated maneuvers instead of isolated company or battalion level actions then you get to pound your chest some more.