***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,551,698 Views | 47731 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
Rossticus
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After a year and a half, and what we've seen Russians do to Ukrainian civilians (children, women, elderly), I feel the exactly same about Russian soldiers as I do Hamas at this point. Stack 'em till they stop coming.
74OA
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AG
Ukraine getting new 30mm anti-drone system. Hopefully, will be able to fire the new US proximity round.

CORTEX TYPHON
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

US now has information that North Korea has delivered arms to Russia for use in Ukraine . In recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions, per White House's John Kirby


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-october-us-now-has-information-that-north-korea-has-delivered
Rossticus
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I'm sure the Russians will be in Israel to help out soon… Any minute now…

Pumpkinhead
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aggiehawg said:

So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.
These dictatorship governments operate in such a different universe than democratic western countries.

Even conservative estimates are Russia has 60,000+ killed and who knows how many wounded after now 18 months of fighting, which is more than the U.S. lost in 12 years in Vietnam. And Russia has less than half the population size of the U.S. As this thing drags on seems Russia might very well have 100K+ killed before this thing somehow runs out of wind.

No western democratic government without such total control of their news information flow would have probably survived this far, exacting such a price on their population as the coffins kept coming home. But if Russia just has a bit more land when this is all said and done, it will no doubt be praised by Putin and his mouthpieces as a 'win'.

You know who won't have 'won' in Russia? The families of all those men who were killed. I wonder how much comfort all those Russian families will be able to lean on from 'winning' all that extra Ukraine land.
Rossticus
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They're working on it…

B-1 83
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

US now has information that North Korea has delivered arms to Russia for use in Ukraine . In recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions, per White House's John Kirby


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-october-us-now-has-information-that-north-korea-has-delivered
When you're depending on North Korea to supply you with quality merchandise, you are in deep kimchi.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Rossticus
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Dugin's take on Israel is… about what you'd expect…

AgLA06
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Pumpkinhead said:

aggiehawg said:

So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.
These dictatorship governments operate in such a different universe than democratic western countries.

Even conservative estimates are Russia has 60,000+ killed and who knows how many wounded after now 18 months of fighting, which is more than the U.S. lost in 12 years in Vietnam. And Russia has less than half the population size of the U.S. As this thing drags on seems Russia might very well have 100K+ killed before this thing somehow runs out of wind.

No western democratic government without such total control of their news information flow would have probably survived this far, exacting such a price on their population as the coffins kept coming home. But if Russia just has a bit more land when this is all said and done, it will no doubt be praised by Putin and his mouthpieces as a 'win'.

You know who won't have 'won' in Russia? The families of all those men who were killed. I wonder how much comfort all those Russian families will be able to lean on from 'winning' all that extra Ukraine land.
Considering Russia is too dumb to follow through on the active duty pay and death / wounded pay, it won't really matter. Families will continue to get smaller as surviving gets harder. No matter what proclamations the government puppets make.
MouthBQ98
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They can mine it too.
AgLA06
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Rossticus said:

Dugin's take on Israel is… about what you'd expect…


We're totally good. Our only options for allies are third world dictatorships and muslim terrorist states, but the west is so screwed!

This is quikly heading for Russia to get a North Korean style embargo from the rest of the world.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

We're totally good. Our only options for allies are third world dictatorships and muslim terrorist states, but the west is so screwed!

This is quikly heading for Russia to get a North Korean style embargo from the rest of the world.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation was all about joining the West in economic trade actively seeking membership in G-7, G-20 etc.

Now they want to go back to being essentially isolationists? That's quite the change.
mickeyrig06sq3
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

We're totally good. Our only options for allies are third world dictatorships and muslim terrorist states, but the west is so screwed!

This is quikly heading for Russia to get a North Korean style embargo from the rest of the world.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation was all about joining the West in economic trade actively seeking membership in G-7, G-20 etc.

Now they want to go back to being essentially isolationists? That's quite the change.

The Cold War never ended. Names changed, lines blurred, but it didn't stop. They dipped their diplomatic toe into the west, but they firmly held on to Stalin.
Not a Bot
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More than anything Russia is run by nationalists who take great pride in their culture and influence.

Russia cooperated with NATO after 9/11, opening airspace and giving approval for US operations in their sphere of influence in central asia. There was genuine cooperation for a while.

Our invasion of Iraq was a huge turning point in that relationship. Russia did not want destabilization. They viewed Iraq as within their sphere of influence and felt completely ignored.

At that point they believed the West would never deal with them fairly as equals, at least in their mind.

For this reason and many others, the decision to invade Iraq in 2003 is one of the biggest geopolitical blunders in US history. Apart from destroying any chance for decent relations with Russia, it removed a local check to Iran, it destabilized the Middle East and led directly to the formation of Isis and increased islamism in the region, and it killed a lot of goodwill among the Arab population.
Ag with kids
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AgLA06 said:

Rossticus said:

Dugin's take on Israel is… about what you'd expect…


We're totally good. Our only options for allies are third world dictatorships and muslim terrorist states, but the west is so screwed!

This is quikly heading for Russia to get a North Korean style embargo from the rest of the world.
THAT is when the oligarchs join together and whack Putin...

This is cramping their style a bit but they can deal with it right now.

If THAT were to happen, they're back to being part of the proletariat in Russia and THAT ain't gonna fly with them...
JFABNRGR
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Boring/Saab team announce shipments of GLSDBs are ready to go.

Timing is good. Let em rip Ukes.
Rossticus
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Previous Russian jubilation (see Rybar, RWA, etc.) seems to have possibly been a bit premature re: Avdiivka.

Rongagin71
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AgLA06 said:

Pumpkinhead said:

aggiehawg said:

So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.
These dictatorship governments operate in such a different universe than democratic western countries.

Even conservative estimates are Russia has 60,000+ killed and who knows how many wounded after now 18 months of fighting, which is more than the U.S. lost in 12 years in Vietnam. And Russia has less than half the population size of the U.S. As this thing drags on seems Russia might very well have 100K+ killed before this thing somehow runs out of wind.

No western democratic government without such total control of their news information flow would have probably survived this far, exacting such a price on their population as the coffins kept coming home. But if Russia just has a bit more land when this is all said and done, it will no doubt be praised by Putin and his mouthpieces as a 'win'.

You know who won't have 'won' in Russia? The families of all those men who were killed. I wonder how much comfort all those Russian families will be able to lean on from 'winning' all that extra Ukraine land.
Considering Russia is too dumb to follow through on the active duty pay and death / wounded pay, it won't really matter. Families will continue to get smaller as surviving gets harder. No matter what proclamations the government puppets make.
I agree with both of you but wonder what percentage of these casualties were actually Russian?
And the percentage of "elite sons"?
Rossticus
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74OA
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian army resumed offensive actions at Makiivka of Luhansk region and at Kupiansk axis


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-october-russian-army-resumed-offensive-actions-at-makiivka
MouthBQ98
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Offensive action seems to mostly be running a platoon sized group of combined armor and infantry up towards the front line and getting them destroyed in the open by guided munitions and artillery.
RogerEnright
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MouthBQ98 said:

Offensive action seems to mostly be running a platoon sized group of combined armor and infantry up towards the front line and getting them destroyed in the open by guided munitions and artillery.


Reminds me of Blackadder WW1' 'Brilliant New Tactical Plan'


Ukraine will never guess that they would do it again.
74OA
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Unglamorous, but full bellies help create stout hearts.

aggiehawg
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That's awesome. Thanks for posting.
Waffledynamics
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Russian POWs near Verbove.

PJYoung
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PJYoung
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JFABNRGR
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PJYoung said:






And GLSBB munitions enroute.

Faustus
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NM.
Eliminatus
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The current Russian Adiivka campaign has some of the largest losses I have seen since the heaviest days of Bakhmut. Lots of numbers being tossed around which I normally take with a grain of salt but enough video evidence to substantiate a good chunk of it is also circulating.

I know the common perception is that Russia is on the offensive to keep the Ukes on the backfoot until the snows when they can go back to further fortified fortifications and ostensibly hold for pretty much forever. Literally trading time for lives. Which has a certain amount of merit to it of course, if you don't care about casualties. Like Russia. I mention all this as a prelude to what appears to be a BTR-50 from one of the attacks. These are pretty damned distinctive, even upside down. The last one came off the lines in 1970 per Wiki. There are Russians currently dying in vehicles their literal grandfathers crewed.

Not a data point to draw definitive conclusions from of course but it is AN interesting data point. (And all the blurs are bodies)

Ag with kids
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Eliminatus said:

The current Russian Adiivka campaign has some of the largest losses I have seen since the heaviest days of Bakhmut. Lots of numbers being tossed around which I normally take with a grain of salt but enough video evidence to substantiate a good chunk of it is also circulating.

I know the common perception is that Russia is on the offensive to keep the Ukes on the backfoot until the snows when they can go back to further fortified fortifications and ostensibly hold for pretty much forever. Literally trading time for lives. Which has a certain amount of merit to it of course, if you don't care about casualties. Like Russia. I mention all this as a prelude to what appears to be a BTR-50 from one of the attacks. These are pretty damned distinctive, even upside down. The last one came off the lines in 1970 per Wiki. There are Russians currently dying in vehicles their literal grandfathers crewed.

Not a data point to draw definitive conclusions from of course but it is AN interesting data point. (And all the blurs are bodies)


We're sending old surplus **** to Ukraine and it's 2 generations newer than this stuff...wow.
74OA
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A look at Ukraine's hodge-podge of IAD assets and other notes from the front.

Today's SITREP.
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