Waffledynamics said:

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Armoured vehicle destroyed as result of strike at the bridge near Panteleymonivka north to Yasynuvata

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-october-armoured-vehicle-destroyed-as-result-of-strike

Can't post a map screenshot right now, but this bridge strike looks aimed at disrupting Russia's logistics as Russia pushes hard on Avdiivka.

Edit: this one too:

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Bridge destroyed between Horlivka and Yasynuvata as result of possible missile strike

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-october-bridge-destroyed-between-horlivka-and-yasynuvata

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MORE

Ukrainians destroy massed Russian armor attack on Andiivka.

AMBUSH

Ukrainians better hurry. "they are getting towards the end of the rope" funding wise.

🔥MASSIVE🔥

John Kirby admits that funding for Ukraine “is coming to the end of the rope”.

It appears the US are diverting their funding away from Ukraine, and the Biden regime have quietly accepted that Ukraine is lost cause.

Looks like Israel was the off-ramp they needed. pic.twitter.com/F0sbnRDNkm

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) October 11, 2023

Maybe. But that guy is also a "9/11 was an inside job" moron, so his analysis on anything is probably a crap shoot at the very best.

MJ20/20 said:

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Ukrainians better hurry. "they are getting towards the end of the rope" funding wise.

🔥MASSIVE🔥

John Kirby admits that funding for Ukraine “is coming to the end of the rope”.

It appears the US are diverting their funding away from Ukraine, and the Biden regime have quietly accepted that Ukraine is lost cause.

Looks like Israel was the off-ramp they needed. pic.twitter.com/F0sbnRDNkm

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) October 11, 2023

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I've been thinking this was the primary goal of the Israel attacks. Ukraine has been a complete quagmire for Russia (and Iran). They had to get US's (and others) attention turned elsewhere or else we could just keep bleeding them dry via Ukraine. So Iran dials up their psycho pawns in Gaza to go attack destabilize the ME.

Looks like their plan is working unfortunately. THIS is what happens when you have a weak administration that undermines our military in such a way that we cannot project power across multiple conflicts.

China is on deck.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The lines will stabilize and they'll have to negotiate, though they hate each other.

Then, until Putin dies, this will happen again every 7-10 years. So probably at least once more.

Russia will bleed itself into no future trying to take, hold, and pacify parts of Ukraine in fear of a threat that doesn't really exist. Nobody wants parts of Russia except China.

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Have the Russians actually gained that much more territory than they had right after 2014?

aggiehawg said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The lines will stabilize and they'll have to negotiate, though they hate each other.

Then, until Putin dies, this will happen again every 7-10 years. So probably at least once more.

Russia will bleed itself into no future trying to take, hold, and pacify parts of Ukraine in fear of a threat that doesn't really exist. Nobody wants parts of Russia except China.

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Have the Russians actually gained that much more territory than they had right after 2014?

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Quantitatively, it's not huge, but it is (or could have been) from a qualitative standpoint. I believe that they are now in possession of Ukraine's most promising gas field, and holding the south bank of the Dneiper allowed them to unblock the irrigation canal that supplied most of the water relied upon by Crimea (which they frittered away by blowing the dam). They also have seized land along the coast of the Sea of Azoz which makes their foothold in Crimea less precarious.

For Ukraine's sake, I hope you are right, but this isn't the first time I've heard this. Ukraine needs to make measurable gains in 2023. The narrative for their success and support is sliding in the wrong direction.

So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.

aggiehawg said:

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So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.

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It's enough of a win for now. Putin would be happy to declare victory, consolidate his gains, and take another stab at a weakened Ukraine in the future (if he lives long enough).

twk said:

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aggiehawg said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The lines will stabilize and they'll have to negotiate, though they hate each other.

Then, until Putin dies, this will happen again every 7-10 years. So probably at least once more.

Russia will bleed itself into no future trying to take, hold, and pacify parts of Ukraine in fear of a threat that doesn't really exist. Nobody wants parts of Russia except China.

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Have the Russians actually gained that much more territory than they had right after 2014?

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Quantitatively, it's not huge, but it is (or could have been) from a qualitative standpoint. I believe that they are now in possession of Ukraine's most promising gas field, and holding the south bank of the Dneiper allowed them to unblock the irrigation canal that supplied most of the water relied upon by Crimea. They also have seized land along the coast of the Sea of Azoz which makes their foothold in Crimea less precarious.

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In addition, Russia is now in possession of roughly 25% of Ukraine's most productive agricultural land, some of its key seaports and a land bridge all the way west to Kherson. The last is particularly problematic in the long term as it allows Russia to outflank much of Ukraine's essential strategic interior depth. Russia keeping it provides a jumping off point deep into Ukraine's rear areas during any future aggression.

Putin can't negotiate for any less than he's already claimed annexation over (20% of the country, roughly, much of which he doesn't control), and he's stated unequivocally that anything less in addition to full sanctions relief and unfreezing of all assets is a nonstarter, PLUS full neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine. Soooooo…. Basically handing him a win and massive strategic advantage to not only take another (much easier) swing at full control in the future but also absorb Transnistria as well.

twk said:

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aggiehawg said:

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So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.

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It's enough of a win for now. Putin would be happy to declare victory, consolidate his gains, and take another stab at a weakened Ukraine in the future (if he lives long enough).

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I think that's why it's important that what's left of Ukraine join NATO during any peace. It prevents any future aggression.

Teslag said:

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twk said:

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aggiehawg said:

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So in your estimation, Putin could say that was enough of a "win"? Do the sanctions still play into such a calculus of cost/benefit for him?

I know his pre-war and early war comments suggested otherwise.

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It's enough of a win for now. Putin would be happy to declare victory, consolidate his gains, and take another stab at a weakened Ukraine in the future (if he lives long enough).

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I think that's why it's important that what's left of Ukraine join NATO during any peace. It prevents any future aggression.

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I think that's really the only way to get some kind of durable peace in the short term. Are the anti-aid-to-Ukraine folks willing to accept a negotiated peace where Ukraine cedes territory in exchange for NATO membership (the only security agreement worth anything)? Because anything that just lets Russia bank its gains with no other consequences but their sunk costs would be a huge victory for Putin, notwithstanding the degradation of his military.

And you can bet that Putin would take lessons learned and make it his mission to rebuild the Russian military to a legitimately world class force. You can bet he'll have a grudge and have Russia poised to be a greater concern in 7-10 years.

aggiehawg said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The lines will stabilize and they'll have to negotiate, though they hate each other.

Then, until Putin dies, this will happen again every 7-10 years. So probably at least once more.

Russia will bleed itself into no future trying to take, hold, and pacify parts of Ukraine in fear of a threat that doesn't really exist. Nobody wants parts of Russia except China.

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Have the Russians actually gained that much more territory than they had right after 2014?

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In Kherson and Zhaporizhe Oblasts the Russkies did gain a lot of Ukrainian territory

plus created a land corridor all the way to Crimea.

Rossticus said:

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And you can bet that Putin would take lessons learned and make it his mission to rebuild the Russian military to a legitimately world class force. You can bet he'll have a grudge and have Russia poised to be a greater concern in 7-10 years.

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Unfortunately for Russians, they don't have the demographics to fund and man a world class force. And it's only going to get worse as they go forward each year and their population ages further.

I really do not think the Gaza strip conflict will require a vast amount of US resources. It is a relatively small area. I think it would be fairly easy for Israel to just take that over if they want to. It's probably what they should have done a long time ago. There will never be peace there.

docb said:

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I really do not think the Gaza strip conflict will require a vast amount of US resources. It is a relatively small area. I think it would be fairly easy for Israel to just take that over if they want to. It's probably what they should have done a long time ago. There will never be peace there.

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It's a small area but it's packed with concrete high-rises and small streets. 2 million people crammed into an area that's roughly 7 miles by 25 miles. Any sort of operation to take full control of that area will be very difficult, take quite a bit of time.

Not a Bot said:

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docb said:

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I really do not think the Gaza strip conflict will require a vast amount of US resources. It is a relatively small area. I think it would be fairly easy for Israel to just take that over if they want to. It's probably what they should have done a long time ago. There will never be peace there.

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It's a small area but it's packed with concrete high-rises and small streets. 2 million people crammed into an area that's roughly 7 miles by 25 miles. Any sort of operation to take full control of that area will be very difficult, take quite a bit of time.

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Time, but not resources like artillery or American vehicles. We will potentially provide a fixing force to keep other Arabs at bay.

"Just look at the Israelis pinning fake atrocities on poor Hamas just like Ukraine did to us!" What a crazy "coincidence".

Putin's propaganda machine now in non-stop defense mode for Hamas.

"Stories of beheaded children is all fake", just like they say about similar Russian atrocities in Ukraine.

Russia will defend any regime that has joined Putin's war on the west. pic.twitter.com/RlxrZ934ze

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) October 12, 2023

BREAKING:

Russia launches massive attack with incendiary munitions on Ukrainian positions near Avdiivka pic.twitter.com/ay3ijAGyW2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 12, 2023

Not a Bot said:

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BREAKING:

Russia launches massive attack with incendiary munitions on Ukrainian positions near Avdiivka pic.twitter.com/ay3ijAGyW2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 12, 2023

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More: today's SITREP.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 11 October 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/l4CTSZAZZG

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/YfOYXinFu3

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 11, 2023

Interesting…

The first minute of this is particularly interesting. Info ops by Russia using RT in Arabic and, more significant, Russia moving to geostationary orbit over Israel an intelligence gathering satellite. Frankly this is important, but raises tremendous questions. https://t.co/WcLDoThlkw

— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) October 12, 2023

Budanov: Russia provided Iran and Hamas with satellite intelligence, infantry weapons trophied in Ukraine. This is a section from latest interview with https://t.co/7y1BPql8mu

- Is there a Russian trace in this story?

- Budanov: Yes. First of all, we clearly know that trophy… pic.twitter.com/pTDju38k20

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 12, 2023

MJ20/20 said:

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For Ukraine's sake, I hope you are right, but this isn't the first time I've heard this. Ukraine needs to make measurable gains in 2023. The narrative for their success and support is sliding in the wrong direction.

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DOD still has $5.4B left from existing Ukraine funding to keep sending weapons from US stocks. That's enough to last several months until Congress passes a budget to include more aid for which there is still strong bipartisan support.

Interesting. "At the same time, U.S. engineers have been able to work with Ukraine to modify a Soviet-era Buk air defense launcher so that it can fire RIM-7 missiles (i.e. Sparrow) which the U.S. has in large quantities. Ukraine has a number of the Buk systems, but its supply of missiles had been dwindling."

FRANKENSAM

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Smoke from Russian Buyan-class corvette after explosion near Sevastopol.

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-october-smoke-from-russian-buyanclass-corvette-after-explosion

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Ukrainian media: Russian vessels were attacked with naval drones in joint Navy and Security Service of Ukraine operation

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-october-ukrainian-media-russian-vessels-were-attacked

Russia would have a big interest in aiding any distracting conflict that draws attention and resources of its opposition away from its own war. If they can focus the USA on the Middle East and direct its resources there, we will provide less than we otherwise would to Ukraine.

As time passes I get the impression that Russia and zukraine will spend 1-2 generations harassing eachother across a kilometer wide minefield and DMZ that will settle in by 2024. Both side wil be exhausted in attacking power and facing very established defenses. It will become the Korean border writ large.

In Melitopol (occupied by russia), partisans blew up an enemy train with ammunition.

The train carried ammunition and fuel daily from Crimea, and in the opposite direction - damaged equipment and stolen iron ore, grain, along with other property.

The explosion also damaged 150… pic.twitter.com/92moHIn2Vs

— ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) October 13, 2023

MouthBQ98 said:

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Russia would have a big interest in aiding any distracting conflict that draws attention and resources of its opposition away from its own war. If they can focus the USA on the Middle East and direct its resources there, we will provide less than we otherwise would to Ukraine.

As time passes I get the impression that Russia and zukraine will spend 1-2 generations harassing eachother across a kilometer wide minefield and DMZ that will settle in by 2024. Both side wil be exhausted in attacking power and facing very established defenses. It will become the Korean border writ large.

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Except it would be no different than France with the Maginot Line and and Belgium (Belarus) above them.

I've seen a lot of shit these last 18 months.

But the sheer stupidity of RU actions in Avdiivka, Pisky area is astounding.

I've never seen such lack of disregard for soldiers. Running straight line human waves. Bodies stacked ontop of each other in fields, armor running over…

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) October 13, 2023

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I've never seen such lack of disregard for soldiers. Running straight line human waves. Bodies stacked ontop of each other in fields, armor running over the deceased to get through.

The RU losses have to be extremely high. As in the thousands already and only from 3-4 days of fighting. And it's not just mobiks, it's vdv, dpr, & contract units. Just being thrown to slaughter in hopes Ukrainian positions run out of ammunition.

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Shooting them is easy

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) October 13, 2023

I dont' follow your point. You thin the Russians or Ukrainians are going to go around the fortifications? I dont' think that is possible. I sort of think the non-occupied portion of Russian / Ukrainian boarder is mined. I read that is true near Kyiv / Russian boarder.