Amphibious landing using jet skis by UKR on Crimea. Looks like 2 riders apiece once close enough they kill the motors and one guy jumps in pushing the jet ski with other rider and likely mission essential gear the rest of the way to shore. Hopefully more vids come out later. Press release first link and vid on reddit link below.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/intense-battle-and-heavy-losses-for-russians-1696421129.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/16zle13/gur_special_forces_landed_on_the_territory_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Wagner attempting to rejoin the fighting around Bakhmut and other frontline notes.

Today's SITREP.

BREAKING: Ukraine claims that Russia is deepening Mariupol port so it can accommodate larger ships

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 4, 2023

Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Ukraine claims that Russia is deepening Mariupol port so it can accommodate larger ships

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 4, 2023

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That should present some nice targets if the Ukes can reach them.

This is a (Rus Black Sea Fleet) functional/tactical retreat/dispersal I read this am, from Sevastopol, which they (now) realize is difficult to defend from cruise missile strikes. But, opinions vary…

2/2
There has been an ebb and flow from Sevastopol to other bases the whole war, especially after Ukrainian attacks, but then the deployments tend to return to normal patterns.

While there are more ships in Feodosiya now, we need more time to make any hard conclusions on this.

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) October 4, 2023

Quote:

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The US will transfer thousands of seized Iranian weapons and rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, in a move that could help to alleviate some of the shortages facing the Ukrainian military as it awaits more money and equipment from the US and its allies

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-october-the-us-will-transfer-thousands-of-seized-iranian

Quote:

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Ukrainian Military intelligence confirmed new raid in occupied Crimea, admitted casualties

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-october-ukrainian-military-intelligence-confirmed-new-raid

nortex97 said:

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This is a (Rus Black Sea Fleet) functional/tactical retreat/dispersal I read this am, from Sevastopol, which they (now) realize is difficult to defend from cruise missile strikes. But, opinions vary…

2/2
There has been an ebb and flow from Sevastopol to other bases the whole war, especially after Ukrainian attacks, but then the deployments tend to return to normal patterns.

While there are more ships in Feodosiya now, we need more time to make any hard conclusions on this.

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) October 4, 2023

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that makes no sense as it is much easier to strike Mariupol from Uke territory than to strike Sevastopol

LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

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This is a (Rus Black Sea Fleet) functional/tactical retreat/dispersal I read this am, from Sevastopol, which they (now) realize is difficult to defend from cruise missile strikes. But, opinions vary…

2/2
There has been an ebb and flow from Sevastopol to other bases the whole war, especially after Ukrainian attacks, but then the deployments tend to return to normal patterns.

While there are more ships in Feodosiya now, we need more time to make any hard conclusions on this.

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) October 4, 2023

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that makes no sense as it is much easier to strike Mariupol from Uke territory than to strike Sevastopol

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But it's more difficult to hit a transport ship than a fixed railway bridge connecting Crimea to Mariupol.

lb3 said:

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LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

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This is a (Rus Black Sea Fleet) functional/tactical retreat/dispersal I read this am, from Sevastopol, which they (now) realize is difficult to defend from cruise missile strikes. But, opinions vary…

2/2
There has been an ebb and flow from Sevastopol to other bases the whole war, especially after Ukrainian attacks, but then the deployments tend to return to normal patterns.

While there are more ships in Feodosiya now, we need more time to make any hard conclusions on this.

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) October 4, 2023

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that makes no sense as it is much easier to strike Mariupol from Uke territory than to strike Sevastopol

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But it's more difficult to hit a transport ship than a fixed railway bridge connecting Crimea to Mariupol.

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Tell that to the ships in the drydock. Doesn't matter much if they aren't moving.

The ships in dry dock weren't actively supporting the war. Ukraine likely hit the submarine on our behalf, not theirs.

The precise location of the ships in dry dock were known for weeks or months. Ukrainians likely won't know which dock a ship will be berthed at until it's already there which starts the mission planning clock. If it's a fuel transfer, the ship may only be there for half a day. Russia can't afford for the bridge across the Chongar Strait to ever become the sole means of supplying the costal cities on the Sea of Azov.

So there is logic in expanding the ports along the Sea of Azov.

Sevastopol is increasingly becoming an untenable naval position. Really, anywhere on the Black Sea is because of Ukraine's naval drones, but Sevastopol in particular is becoming extremely difficult due to missile attacks. The attack on the dry docks in particular was very problematic because now Russia knows that anything reliably known to be parked in the same place for an extended period is likely going to be hit at some point. Ships docked at piers or undergoing maintenance are going to be sitting ducks.

That's why moving vessels to the Sea of Azov makes sense. It's easier to defend from naval drones, and vessels can be based out of ports far enough away from Ukraine to be protected by distance.

They also need to plan for potentially losing the Kerch bridge. In a perfect world for the Russians, they would move men and material using their landing ships in and out of Sevastopol, but that's not really an option anymore, so the backup plan is ports on the Sea of Azov.

More video on the jet ski-borne commando raid and a review of the overall operational effect of recent varied attacks on Crimea, particularly its ports.

GUTS

lb3 said:

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The ships in dry dock weren't actively supporting the war. Ukraine likely hit the submarine on our behalf, not theirs.

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Not true. The Rostov on Don Kilo sub was one of the subs being used to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine from the Black Sea. Taking it out reduces the quantity the orcs can send in each volley.

I would think the Ukes are going to hit any valuable Russian military asset they can regardless if it is a real threat to them or not especially one that cost $300 million.

lb3 said:

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The ships in dry dock weren't actively supporting the war. Ukraine likely hit the submarine on our behalf, not theirs.

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Yeah they were. Both were attached to the Black Sea fleet in February 2022 specifically to support the war. Minsk may have been damaged in an earlier drone attack or could have just been in for maintenance. Rostov-on-Don was probably in for maintenance as well. Both would have rotated out back to operations in the Black Sea as soon as maintenance was finished though.

"In what a U.S. defense official tells us is the first transfer of its kind, 1.1 million rounds of 7.62x54mm ammunition and more than 20,000 rounds of 12.7mmx99mm ammunition of Iranian origin seized last year in the Gulf of Oman has been delivered to Ukraine."

Today's SITREP.

Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

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The Houthi's seem pleased with it.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

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Assuming it's still in the original sealed metal tins, it's as good as new. There used to be tons of Russian surplus 7.62x54r being sold to civilians here in the US. I heard of a few issues with rounds from the 50s. The stuff from the 70s was considered to be 100%. The corrosive primers used in this old ammo are supposedly superior for long term storage.

CS78 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

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Assuming it's still in the original sealed metal tins, it's as good as new. There used to be tons of Russian surplus 7.62x54r being sold to civilians here in the US. I heard of a few issues with rounds from the 50s. The stuff from the 70s was considered to be 100%. The corrosive primers used in this old ammo are supposedly superior for long term storage.

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Not to mention the cobalt lined Ak's produced from the original izmash factory are likely what the troops are getting. Those old rounds will be no problem in these rifles.

7.62x54 is for PKM's. AK's use 7.62x39 (and others)

CS78 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

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Assuming it's still in the original sealed metal tins, it's as good as new. There used to be tons of Russian surplus 7.62x54r being sold to civilians here in the US. I heard of a few issues with rounds from the 50s. The stuff from the 70s was considered to be 100%. The corrosive primers used in this old ammo are supposedly superior for long term storage.

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7.62x54 was the sniper round for Simo haya. His work is the stuff of legends

GAC06 said:

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7.62x54 is for PKM's. AK's use 7.62x39 (and others)

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But the mosin negant fired 7.62x54.

GAC06 said:

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7.62x54 is for PKM's. AK's use 7.62x39 (and others)

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No doubt what you say is true, but what I am telling you is also true. The most prolific sniper shot 7.62x54 out of his gun. Which was the mosin nagant with the hex reciever

Ok. Not an AK like you said.

UK warns Russia may use sea mines to attack civilian ships, Germany still dithering about supplying Taurus missiles and other notes.

UPDATES

Here are some pictures of exactly what was seized from the Iranians and likely exactly what will be handed over to the Ukrainians:

https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/hsi-washington-dc-investigation-results-seizure-iranian-weapons-destined-yemen

CS78 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Admittedly, my experience with something like this is the movie war dogs.

Is the ammunition reliable?

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Assuming it's still in the original sealed metal tins, it's as good as new. There used to be tons of Russian surplus 7.62x54r being sold to civilians here in the US. I heard of a few issues with rounds from the 50s. The stuff from the 70s was considered to be 100%. The corrosive primers used in this old ammo are supposedly superior for long term storage.

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I have two cases of 7.62x54R made in Bulgaria in 1955.

Have had zero misfires in the first 250 rounds of the first case.

Old ammunition is still valuable and usable. Even old Warsaw pact make, which is why it is going to Ukraine.

Quote:

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48 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian shelling at the cafe and grocery store in Groza village of Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-48-killed-6-wounded-as-result-of-russian-shelling

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Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 29 Russian Shahed drones overnight

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-24-of-29-russian

Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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48 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian shelling at the cafe and grocery store in Groza village of Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-48-killed-6-wounded-as-result-of-russian-shelling

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horrendous- that is in the far northeast of the country well behind the lines where there is even no combat going on..

on the same LiveMap look to the north- many strikes into Kursk Oblast- which is RUSSIA.

also the main offensive in the south in Zaporoziyhe Oblast - expand out the map and it seems the fighting has pushed even further south towards Tokmak and is now past the village of Novovpripovko

the front definitely seems to have moved south in the last two days!

I read something recently where there are starting some evacuations out of Tokmak so they probably are getting closer.