Well, you're like my wife asking a question and then asking again after it gets answered.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 10 hrs ago by 74OA
AgLA06 said:
Well, you're like my wife asking a question and then asking again after it gets answered.
There was no answer to my original question when I responded again other than someone saying the Ukes don't waste their soldiers. Ok but to deny they have men killed or incapacitated is ludicrous , eventually they have to replace the losses hence my question about their demographics.
I had answered your question and explained they were refitting, combining, and retraining the new units and replacements.
It is a very interesting question honestly with a LOT of nuance to it. Everything points to the Russians having a better advantage on manpower. Yes. This is true. But the flyby headline making clicksters don't dig into it at all.
Russia has more manpower. They also have a LOT more commitments than the Ukes. Sure they can post their crap troops on the Chinese border but they are still uniformed men that have to stay there. Russia is also not as homogenous as most Americans believe. They still have fractured regions, particularly along their southern borders that are contentious. Hence the Russian independence movements there that still have not been squashed yet. Plus their northern commitments and pacific ones… not to mention their capital forces which Prigozhin proved needs to start there.
Russia simply has a lot more on their plate while the Ukes can concentrate their forces. So the straight up force projected numbers are not a one to one exactly. Excepting a degradation of those non Ukrainian commitments. Which has happened already as well. Russia has a more complex balancing act to maintain. Which inherently means it is easier to mess up as well.
Russia has more manpower. They also have a LOT more commitments than the Ukes. Sure they can post their crap troops on the Chinese border but they are still uniformed men that have to stay there. Russia is also not as homogenous as most Americans believe. They still have fractured regions, particularly along their southern borders that are contentious. Hence the Russian independence movements there that still have not been squashed yet. Plus their northern commitments and pacific ones… not to mention their capital forces which Prigozhin proved needs to start there.
Russia simply has a lot more on their plate while the Ukes can concentrate their forces. So the straight up force projected numbers are not a one to one exactly. Excepting a degradation of those non Ukrainian commitments. Which has happened already as well. Russia has a more complex balancing act to maintain. Which inherently means it is easier to mess up as well.
Since Prigozhin exposed Russia, many in the US believe that time may be on the Ukrainian side. It all depends on the West's continued supply of military aid.Eliminatus said:
It is a very interesting question honestly with a LOT of nuance to it. Everything points to the Russians having a better advantage on manpower. Yes. This is true. But the flyby headline making clicksters don't dig into it at all.
Russia has more manpower. They also have a LOT more commitments than the Ukes. Sure they can post their crap troops on the Chinese border but they are still uniformed men that have to stay there. Russia is also not as homogenous as most Americans believe. They still have fractured regions, particularly along their southern borders that are contentious. Hence the Russian independence movements there that still have not been squashed yet. Plus their northern commitments and pacific ones… not to mention their capital forces which Prigozhin proved needs to start there.
Russia simply has a lot more on their plate while the Ukes can concentrate their forces. So the straight up force projected numbers are not a one to one exactly. Excepting a degradation of those non Ukrainian commitments. Which has happened already as well. Russia has a more complex balancing act to maintain. Which inherently means it is easier to mess up as well.
As I posted at the start of this discussion on the page before, Ukraine has millions more military age males than it could ever put into uniform even without tapping more millions of willing females. So raw manpower is unlikely to be an issue for it.
When we were in Vietnam for 10+ years killing reportedly 10-1 even 15-1...did the North Vietnamese army and Vietcong ever run out of manpower?
Nope...
We had 600,000+ troops over there at one point bombing the hell out of them.
I get very skeptical with anyone claiming Ukraine is anywhere close to running of manpower. If their population stays highly motivated to fight, I'd guess they could find people to put into uniform for quite a few more years to go if necessary. I just don't think the shooting in this thing is going to stop primarily because one side is starting to really run low on raw troop counts.
Nope...
We had 600,000+ troops over there at one point bombing the hell out of them.
I get very skeptical with anyone claiming Ukraine is anywhere close to running of manpower. If their population stays highly motivated to fight, I'd guess they could find people to put into uniform for quite a few more years to go if necessary. I just don't think the shooting in this thing is going to stop primarily because one side is starting to really run low on raw troop counts.
10 or 15 to one was probably highly inflated.
I don't think either side would run out of menv anytime soon, but we didn't leave Vietnam because we ran out of men. We left because we lost the political will to continue after all the able bodied men decided they didn't want to go.
I think Russia may hit that sooner than Ukraine, mainly because it isn't about how many people you have, but their collective desire to continue. Ukraine is fighting for their homeland. Russia is fighting for Putin's dream of a new Russian empire. I'm sure a lot of people buy into that there, but at some point reality has to set in that a lot of guys have died and trillions of rubles have been spent for not very much and to realize the dream is going to take more than anyone is willing to pay.
I don't think either side would run out of menv anytime soon, but we didn't leave Vietnam because we ran out of men. We left because we lost the political will to continue after all the able bodied men decided they didn't want to go.
I think Russia may hit that sooner than Ukraine, mainly because it isn't about how many people you have, but their collective desire to continue. Ukraine is fighting for their homeland. Russia is fighting for Putin's dream of a new Russian empire. I'm sure a lot of people buy into that there, but at some point reality has to set in that a lot of guys have died and trillions of rubles have been spent for not very much and to realize the dream is going to take more than anyone is willing to pay.
My question is what is Russia going to do if Ukraine keeps taking out officers? The past year they have gotten pretty good at it and now that they are in range of almost all of Ukraine territory they can keep finding targets. Infantry can be replaced by men off the street, high ranking officers cannot. Even though they don't do much
Yep. If you can't pull from your biggest population centers with your better quality people, eventually that catches up to you. Especially since your guys don't want to be there (or they would have already volunteered for contracts).ABATTBQ11 said:
10 or 15 to one was probably highly inflated.
I don't think either side would run out of menv anytime soon, but we didn't leave Vietnam because we ran out of men. We left because we lost the political will to continue after all the able bodied men decided they didn't want to go.
I think Russia may hit that sooner than Ukraine, mainly because it isn't about how many people you have, but their collective desire to continue. Ukraine is fighting for their homeland. Russia is fighting for Putin's dream of a new Russian empire. I'm sure a lot of people buy into that there, but at some point reality has to set in that a lot of guys have died and trillions of rubles have been spent for not very much and to realize the dream is going to take more than anyone is willing to pay.
Ukraine is fighting for their country. We're already seeing the difference in the fact that Russia isn't able to make Ukraine pay in typical casualty ratios for taking defended ground. Especially since it was prepared for almost a year.
I'm not sure much it matters. That's not good, but their bigger problem is a complete lack of leadership from the NCO corp through the division level. There's no training, no discipline, and no real competency. And now supplies and artillery support are disappearing. A great battle plan goes to **** real quick in that scenario as we've seen time and time again.P.U.T.U said:
My question is what is Russia going to do if Ukraine keeps taking out officers? The past year they have gotten pretty good at it and now that they are in range of almost all of Ukraine territory they can keep finding targets. Infantry can be replaced by men off the street, high ranking officers cannot. Even though they don't do much
And Russia can't solve that.
From the numbers I've seen, Ukraine has about double the combat soldiers that Russia currently has. And losses for Ukraine are currently less than those reaching military age.
Manpower is unlikely to be the tipping point in this war. It's going to be logistics, equipment, and resolve.
Manpower is unlikely to be the tipping point in this war. It's going to be logistics, equipment, and resolve.
Still scratching my head. They just lost a sub and a landing ship a few wks ago ...and subsequently didn't relocate/disperse their nearby naval HQ?74OA said:
Ukraine confirms it killed the Russian fleet commander and other miscellaneous notes.
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.
If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?
Back in early March, 2022, Yuri Butusov (former war correspondent turned defense analyst) was interviewed and provided the estimate that Ukraine could potentially mobilize at least 700,000 men for military service that were either on active duty or had been discharged from military service within the past eight years. Subtract from that number what you believe they have suffered in attrition over the past 19 months.
Butusov's early analysis of the war has turned out to be fairly accurate. Though in this article from January 2022, he did not consider that after an initial failed invasion that Russia would have multiple rounds of conscription to continue to pursue the campaign after heavy initial losses.
https://kontrakty.ua/article/191669
AgLA06 said:
This is all political posturing over grain. Neither side is in the wrong, but it's going to take negotiations to put it to bed.
Ukraine has to ship grain by land through Poland, Hungary, and Slivakia because of the sea blockade. Those countries don't want commodity pricing of grain to plummet if Ukraine doesn't have a home for it beyond them.
They'll work it out.
And just like that, we're a third of the way to a solution.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/slovakia-ukraine-agree-grain-trade-system-replace-ban-slovak-ministry-2023-09-21/?utm_source=reddit.com
benchmark said:Still scratching my head. They just lost a sub and a landing ship a few wks ago ...and subsequently didn't relocate/disperse their nearby naval HQ?74OA said:
Ukraine confirms it killed the Russian fleet commander and other miscellaneous notes.
Russia is very slow to learn from mistakes and adapt. They're also often overly confident in their abilities because critical assessments aren't often rewarded.
The Russians may not be as adapt at implementing training in the field as our NCO corps can do but we're not nearly as flexible as we need to be. Our NATO training curriculum for example has basically ignored drone technology and continued pressing the need for forward observers to serve as infantry spotters.ABATTBQ11 said:benchmark said:Still scratching my head. They just lost a sub and a landing ship a few wks ago ...and subsequently didn't relocate/disperse their nearby naval HQ?74OA said:
Ukraine confirms it killed the Russian fleet commander and other miscellaneous notes.
Russia is very slow to learn from mistakes and adapt. They're also often overly confident in their abilities because critical assessments aren't often rewarded.
The Russians have learned quite a few lessons over the past two years such as moving away from their previously light on infantry BTG structure once they transitioned to defense and they have done a decent job implementing new technologies (drones) into their command and control systems.
Doesn't mean they weren't slow in making all those changes. As pointed out, they lost a sub and landing ship to a missile attack, so they knew their local air defense was porous and vulnerable yet they still had guys coming into HQ. Common sense says move everything critical farther away and don't concentrate high value targets in predictable locations
Good. Maybe will be a template for agreements with the other two as well.AgLA06 said:AgLA06 said:
This is all political posturing over grain. Neither side is in the wrong, but it's going to take negotiations to put it to bed.
Ukraine has to ship grain by land through Poland, Hungary, and Slivakia because of the sea blockade. Those countries don't want commodity pricing of grain to plummet if Ukraine doesn't have a home for it beyond them.
They'll work it out.
And just like that, we're a third of the way to a solution.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/slovakia-ukraine-agree-grain-trade-system-replace-ban-slovak-ministry-2023-09-21/?utm_source=reddit.com
Savage
I have a new appreciation for that guy...
Eliminatus
Thank you for the clear concise response.
Thank you for the clear concise response.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/26-september-as-a-result-of-the-night-drone-attack-the-orlivkaisakchaQuote:
As a result of the night drone attack, the "Orlivka-Isakcha" crossing point between Ukraine and Romania in Odesa region is not working
This winter could be the turning point for Ukraine. If they can co tinge the oressure on Russian supplies, front line troops will be cold and hungry and General Winter will turn on the Russians.
This doesn't mean the Ukes can just roll in due to all the minefields, but if the RU troops are frostbitten, freezing and starving, their will to fight will be non existent. Plus drones with thermal sensors will have a much easier time identifying small units and dropping endless grenades yo demoralize them more.
This doesn't mean the Ukes can just roll in due to all the minefields, but if the RU troops are frostbitten, freezing and starving, their will to fight will be non existent. Plus drones with thermal sensors will have a much easier time identifying small units and dropping endless grenades yo demoralize them more.
Last night, the Russians launched a drone strike on the AFU Kulbakino Air Base in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, most likely using #Iran'ian Shahed 136 or Lancet drones that were launched from occupied Crimea or Kherson, respectively. As a result of this strike, one Mig-29 was destroyed and… pic.twitter.com/12ho9Sdau0
— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) September 26, 2023
And now video of Shoigu’s speech. I think this is now a pretty good proof of life that Sokolov didn’t die on the strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ https://t.co/LQBhISLRzs pic.twitter.com/I87sOkmKMU
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 26, 2023
Looks like a hospital bed.Rossticus said:And now video of Shoigu’s speech. I think this is now a pretty good proof of life that Sokolov didn’t die on the strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ https://t.co/LQBhISLRzs pic.twitter.com/I87sOkmKMU
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 26, 2023
AgLA06 said:Looks like a hospital bed.Rossticus said:And now video of Shoigu’s speech. I think this is now a pretty good proof of life that Sokolov didn’t die on the strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ https://t.co/LQBhISLRzs pic.twitter.com/I87sOkmKMU
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 26, 2023
Or a weekend at Bernies.
This will free up German Leo 2s for transfer to Ukraine. Whatever sleight of hand makes the Swiss feel good about themselves, I suppose.
The Swiss upper house passed the decision to approve the sale of 25 Leopard 2A4's to Rheinmetall with the condition that they are not transferred to Ukraine by 25 votes to 15 with 3 abstentions, earlier the lower house already approved decommission. Now Federal Council approval… pic.twitter.com/X4n0TeoSlh
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 26, 2023
I mean, did he speak? Did he blink?
Yep, unambiguous proof of life is easy to provide, and anything less just rouses further suspicion.knj2417 said:
I mean, did he speak? Did he blink?
If he's still alive, trot him out for all to see and hear in real time.........
He waved with some strings on his arms like a muppet.knj2417 said:
I mean, did he speak? Did he blink?
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