***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,560,905 Views | 47750 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by Teslag
MouthBQ98
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Yes, odd that a drone is just kicking around filming the radar emplacement for the top notch widely deployed SAM system and they seemed either oblivious to it or complacent about it. Surely the SA-400 set could detect the drone. Maybe they thought it wasn't worth a missile, or maybe they were filtering out small/slow moving returns like we were with the Chinese spy balloons, at first.
The Fife
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I just assumed they would've either not picked up such a small object, or thought it was a buzzard or something.
RogerEnright
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MouthBQ98 said:

Maybe they thought it wasn't worth a missile, or maybe they were filtering out small/slow moving returns like we were with the Chinese spy balloons, at first.
Good point. It is sort of a catch-22.

If you shoot a several hundred thousand dollar missile at a $500 drone, you lose over time. If you don't shoot down drones and they spot you...
AgLA06
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At 120km and that kind of clarity from that kind of altitude, something tells me it wasn't a cheap or small drone.
ABATTBQ11
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AgLA06 said:

At 120km and that kind of clarity from that kind of altitude, something tells me it wasn't a cheap or small drone.


It was 120km from the front lines, but the operator was likely a lot closer. The Russians have the problem of operating in an area where many of the locals absolutely despise them, so saboteurs and partisans running recon with cheap drones can be anywhere and everywhere.
P.U.T.U
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That did not look like a high flying drone like a Predator, more like a quadcopter so without repeaters the operator was less than a mile away.

The US has the capability to track down something the size of a bee within a 50 mile radius, appears the Russian technology advantage they touted for years was a farce. You would think they would invest in better defense of one of their $500+ million systems.
ABATTBQ11
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They may have known it was there, but the trick is doing something about it. They would have needed some kind of short range weapon to engage it because they're not going to be able to fire an S-400 at every off the shelf quadcopter that comes around. Even a short range SAM or MANPADS is overkill and too expensive to be sustainable. Looking at the site didn't kill it though. I think their real concern is what that site got hit with and why they didn't see that coming.
BigJim49 AustinNowDallas
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Will Wagner boss's death affect the battle? Will his troops remain loyal to Russia?

Posted without reference to prior posts on this subject.
BigJim49AustinnowDallas
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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BigJim49 AustinNowDallas said:

Will Wagner boss's death affect the battle? Will his troops remain loyal to Russia?

Posted without reference to prior posts on this subject.
I doubt it will affect the battle. Wagner kinda got subsumed and became a non-factor after the whole charge to Moscow thing.
benchmark
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I was wondering how long it would take them ...
Gordo14
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Lots of rumors of 80+ Ukrainian vehicles pushing south from robotyne. This would be the largest attack to date if it's confirmed.

AgLA06
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benchmark said:

I was wondering how long it would take them ...

I can't fathom taking a grinder to cut open a 155mm artillery shell filled with cluster munitions and then playing with them to figure out how to drop them from a drone.
PJYoung
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SmallBusiness
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That was my exact thought. The whole thing would scare the ....
Gordo14
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Seen this multiple places fwiw
Waffledynamics
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Russia might be headed out of there, back to the defense line South of the town.

Defmon's Map (see the orange lines for trench/fortifications. The red broken line is the Russian forward line (this is likely outdated by now).

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Operational%20Map%20Ukraine/nBT8ffpeGH

benchmark
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AgLA06 said:

I can't fathom taking a grinder to cut open a 155mm artillery shell filled with cluster munitions and then playing with them to figure out how to drop them from a drone.
Shorts, crocs, cigarettes, cut-off grinder, and 155mm cluster munitions ... only thing missing is beer.
2wealfth Man
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lots going on: Special Ops raid, S-400 site taken out and now a massing of armor
Touchless
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Long video (15 min) of a compilation of battles from both sides. Some of them have been seen before, but most were new to me.
Rossticus
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Just a little more elbow room around Robotyne and Ukraine should be able to bring arty up… and make it rain on Tokmak.
docb
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Accurate artillery and lots of it will eventually lead to the demise of the Russians in Ukraine. It's just not as glorious of an advance, but effective.
PJYoung
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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AgLA06
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Something I've been wondering.

Whether it's patriotic bias or whatever, I'm sure a lot are like me assume the US has the best fighter pilots and training programs. How do these other countries training Uke F16 pilots stack up?
Rossticus
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Brewskis
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AgLA06 said:

Something I've been wondering.

Whether it's patriotic bias or whatever, I'm sure a lot are like me assume the US has the best fighter pilots and training programs. How do these other countries training Uke F16 pilots stack up?


Pilot for pilot, the Dutch and the Danes are better than your average USAF/USN/USMC fighter pilot, IMO. They have a very large pool of want-to-be fighter pilots to pick very few from, so they can be very selective. They sometimes don't get the same quantity of high-end training that we do due to budget and resources, but they are very, very good. All go through basic pilot training and F-16 training here in the US with a mix of their instructors and ours (usually old-ass Guardsmen or Reservists like myself).
Rossticus
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No Spin Ag
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Waffledynamics said:




There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Rossticus
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MouthBQ98
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Russia can't pull up enough trained and equipped reserves on exterior lines to adequately cover all potential breakthrough points if they haven't truly completed their defense in depth to the degree that their forward lines of defense were prepared.

If the second lines or more aren't mined, covered with artillery, and manned by the same density of soldiers, Ukraine will be able to push through them and engage in mobile warfare beyond them, and threaten to cut them off or encircle the defenders that don't withdraw. This will all depend on if Russian artillery remains adequate and if they deployed huge minefields like they did on the first main line of defense.
SouthTex99
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PJYoung
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PJYoung
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